The Unassuming Economist

Forecasting Issues in Developing Economies

April 26-27, 2017, Washington, DC

Wednesday, April 26

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8.45-9.30         Registration and Breakfast

9.30-9.45         Opening Remarks: Tao Zhang, Deputy Managing Director, IMF 

9.45-10.15       Session 1: Forecasting Turning Points

Chair: Prakash Loungani, Research Department, IMF

David Kuenzel, Wesleyan University

Chris Papageorgiou, Research Department, IMF

IMF Forecasts in Time of Crisis (Paper and Presentation)

(with Charis Christofides and Theo Eicher)

Discussant: Herman Stekler, George Washington University

10.15-11.15      Session 2: Energy and Climate Change

Chair: Gail Cohen, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering & Medicine

Jevgenijs Steinbuks, The World Bank

Assessing the Accuracy of Electricity Demand Forecasts in Developing Countries (Paper and Presentation)

Xinye Zheng, Renmin University of China

Economic Structure and Energy Consumption: Implications for 2030 Chinese Energy Demand (Paper and Presentation)

(with Fanghua Li and Li Zhang)

Discussant: Fred Joutz, George Washington University

11.15-11.30      Coffee Break

11.30-12.30      Session 3: Dealing with Uncertainty

Chair: Min Wei, Federal Reserve Board

Xuguang Simon Sheng, American University

The Measurement and Transmission of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from the U.S. and BRIC Countries (Paper and Presentation)

(with Yang Liu)

Svetlana Makarova, University College London

Quasi Ex-Ante Inflation Forecast Uncertainty (Paper and Presentation)

(with Wojciech Charemza and Carlos Diaz)

Discussant: Sangyup (Sam) Choi, Mideastern & C. Asia Dept., IMF

12.30-2.00        Lunch

2.00-3.00         Session 4: Issues in Macroeconomics and Empirical Finance

Chair: Kirstin Hubrich, Federal Reserve Board

Speaker: Jonathan Wright, Johns Hopkins University

Ten Thoughts for Forecasting and Policy (Presentation)

Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera, University of California, Riverside

A Bootstrap Approach for Generalized Autocontour Testing. Implications for VIX Forecast Densities (Paper and Presentation)

(with J.H. Mazzeu, E. Ruiz, and H. Veiga)

3.00-3.30         Session 5: Financial Forecasting

Chair: Rita Biswas, University at Albany – SUNY

Sophia Chen, Research Department, IMF

Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts (Paper and Presentation)

(with Romain Ranciere)

Discussant: Zhaogang Song, Johns Hopkins University

3.30-3.45          Group Photo

3.45-4.00          Coffee Break

4.00-5.15         Session 6: Frontiers of Forecasting

Chair: Herman Stekler, George Washington University

Keynotes:

Frank Diebold, University of Pennsylvania

Econometrics, Predictive Modeling, Causal Estimation, and Machine Learning

Kajal Lahiri, University at Albany – SUNY

The International Transmission of Shocks. A Factor Structural Analysis Using Forecast Data (Presentation)

7.00                 Workshop Dinner

Taberna del Alabardero (1776 I St., NW; entrance on 18^th Street)

Thursday, April 27

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9.00-9.30          Breakfast

9.30-10.30       Session 7: Unemployment and Growth Forecasts

Chair: Milt Marquis, Florida State University

Neil Ericsson, Federal Reserve Board

Detecting Time-dependent Bias in the Fed’s Greenbook Forecasts (Paper)

(with Emilio Fiallos and J E. Seymour)

Laurence Ball, Johns Hopkins University

An Assessment of IMF Unemployment Forecasts for Advanced and Developing Economies (Paper and Presentation)

(with Zidong An, Joao Jalles and Prakash Loungani)

Discussant: Gabe Mathy, American University

10.30-10.45      Coffee Break

10.45-11.45      Session 8: Inflation and Monetary Policy

Chair: Subir Gokarn, Office of Executive Directors, IMF

Abhiman Das, Indian Institute of Management

Herbert Zhao, Towson University

Asymmetries in Indian Inflation Expectations: A Study Using IESH Quantitative Survey Data (Paper and Presentation)

(with Kajal Lahiri)

Roberto Duncan, Ohio University

New Perspectives on Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Economies: An Empirical Assessment (Paper and Presentation)

(with Enrique Martinez-Garcia)

Discussant: Tara Sinclair, George Washington University

11.45-12.30      Session 9: Economic Prospects for Africa

Chair: Maxwell Opoku-Afari, African Department, IMF

Speakers:Anthony Simpasa, African Development Bank

Intelligent Forecasting of Economic Growth for African Economies: Artificial Neural Networks versus Time Series and Structural Econometric Models (Paper and Presentation)

(with Chuku Chuku and Jacob Oduor)

Discussant: Khaled Hussein, UN Economic Commission for Africa

An IMF report says “The level of corruption in Ukraine is exceptionally high. This can severely undermine economic growth prospects, in particular by hindering private investment. Reducing corruption is therefore essential to speed up the process of economic convergence to the rest of Europe. Regional comparisons help identifying best practices in reducing corruption. The Ukrainian authorities have recently adopted important measures that follow some of these best practices. They are, however, facing a number of specific challenges, including the concentration of political and economic powers in a small group of people which may hamper effective anti-corruption efforts.”

Continue reading here.

The IMF’s latest report on Netherlands points out the following:

• “House prices have been accelerating and close monitoring may be warranted in the country’s main cities. After turning a corner in 2014, house prices have been steadily accelerating and transaction volumes have doubled in 2016. At the aggregate level, real house prices are broadly consistent with long-term equilibrium (priceto-income, price-to-rent ratios, Figure 3) but developments have been uneven across regions, with prices for apartments in Amsterdam 15 percent higher than a year ago. After plummeting by 20 percent during the crisis, commercial real estate has only started to recover recently.”

• “Households remain highly leveraged, with a sizeable share of mortgages in negative equity.”

• “Staff recommends accelerating the implementation of macro-prudential and other measures aimed at lessening household financial vulnerabilities. The authorities should build on recent initiatives, (…) They should accelerate the phasing down of mortgage interest deductibility (MID), by at least 1 percentage point per year ultimately bringing it to a neutral level relative to the taxation of other assets. (…) The authorities should continue to gradually lower the maximum limit on LTV ratios by at least 1 percentage point per year to no more than 90 percent by 2028 and to 80 percent thereafter. (…) The authorities should introduce prudential ceilings on debt service-to-income caps by income category that could not be relaxed during periods of strong growth.”

• “The private rental market needs to be deregulated and placed on a more even footing with owner-occupied homes and social housing.”