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Housing View – October 11, 2024

On cross-country:

  • Taming the World’s Affordable Housing Crisis – Insead
  • The EU’s plan to make housing more affordable. The European Commission has a plan to tackle the housing squeeze even as it acknowledges that its powers are limited. – Politico
  • Why does the Anglosphere Suck at Housing? Speaking English is part of the problem – Home Economics
  • Global house price growth accelerates. House prices across our 56-country basket rose by 3.3% in the 12 months to the end of June, with prices increasing by 1.9% over the past three months alone – Knight Frank


Working papers and conferences:

  • Monetary policy transmission: why consumers’ housing situations matter. – European Central Bank
  • Long-term fixed-rate mortgages through an international lens: could they lead to higher home ownership? – Bank of England
  • House Price Experiences and Consumer Spending – SSRN
  • Housing Policy, Homeownership, and Inequality – SSRN


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Why have mortgage rates fallen, and where are they headed? – Brookings
  • US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Climbs by Most in More Than a Year – Bloomberg
  • Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
  • Why Mortgage Rates Haven’t Fallen Since the Fed Cut. Would-be home buyers anticipating more relief from the Fed might be waiting a while – Wall Street Journal
  • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September. Significant Regional Differences for Active Inventory – Calculated Risk
  • NYC Apartment Renters Get a Break But Bargains Remain Elusive. Manhattan median is $200 below record after string of declines. Leases jump, signaling the market’s still fiercely competitive – Bloomberg
  • Remodeling Market Sentiment Dips in Third Quarter – NAHB
  • Moody’s: Apartment Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q3; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High – Calculated Risk
  • Housing Confidence Inches Higher Amid Record-High Optimism Toward Mortgage Rates. Renter Sentiment Also Up, Including Share Expecting Rates to Fall – Fannie Mae
  • Mortgage rates are rising again. An uptick in rates slowed total loan applications after several months of growth – Quartz
  • Despite Housing Shortage, America Has 5.6 Million Vacant Homes—What Gives? – Realtor.com  


On the US—other developments:    

  • Removing Barriers to Abundant, Affordable Housing. InsideSources published an op-ed from Kevin DeGood about the role that state and local governments play in America’s housing affordability crisis. – Center for American Progress
  • Americans Recognize Housing Affordability Crisis, Support New Policies To Fix the Market and Build More Homes. New survey data show housing affordability is a salient national issue. – Center for American Progress
  • Contra J.D. Vance and Tim Walz, Housing Should Be a ‘Commodity’. Housing is unaffordable because regulations have prevented its commodification. – Reason
  • Why YIMBYs like Kamala Harris – Axios  
  • The link between immigration and housing costs isn’t as obvious as it seems – Axios
  • Gavin Newsom’s blunt instrument on housing – Politico 
  • The Week in Review. Week of Sept 30th — Payrolls pop – Home Economics
  • San Francisco’s mayoral election defined by housing crisis and shift to right – Reuters
  • Housing costs are rising. How do Trump and Harris plan to tackle them? – NPR
  • Manufactured Homes: Shipments, Prices, and Characteristics in 2023 – NAHB
  • ICE Mortgage Monitor: Insurance Costs “Spike”, Especially in Florida – Calculated Risk
  • See Where the Housing Market Could Change the Most as Mortgage Rates Drop – Realtor.com
  • Soaring Insurance Costs Are Menacing Owners of Big Buildings, Too. Struggling landlords and developers are seeking leeway on coverage from their lenders — mostly in vain. – New York Times
  • State of Local Homeownership Prior to the Election – NAHB 


On Australia and New Zealand

  • [Australia] Downsizing How Australia’s housing crisis opens door for eager Asian investors. The factors in Australia’s affordability crisis can be seen elsewhere in Asia, making it important for investors not to overlook their own markets – South China Morning Post
  • [New Zealand] Difficult mortgage decisions for borrowers likely to continue – CoreLogic


On other countries:  

  • [Canada] Buying a home gets a tad more affordable as rates drop – RBC
  • [Canada] Can private real estate help lead Canada out of the housing crisis? – Bloomberg
  • [Korea] Korea Touts Progress in Cooling Real Estate Ahead of BOK Meeting. Finance Ministry comments just days before Bank of Korea meets. BOK has delayed cutting interest rates on concerns about debt – Bloomberg
  • [Korea] Cooling in Seoul’s Apartment Market Pauses Ahead of BOK Meeting. High-frequency data show top properties demand still strong. Government continues to pledge to rein in household debt – Bloomberg
  • [Kuwait] Why Housing Prices in Kuwait Keep Going Up? Unveiling the Drivers Behind the Crisis – LSE
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong property prices have ‘bottomed out’ and will ‘rebound slowly’, sector leader says. Recent strength in stock market can help drive economic recovery and boost property sector, head of developers’ association says – South China Morning Post
  • [United Kingdom] UK property market strengthens, pressure on renters intensifies, RICS says – Reuters
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices rising for first time in two years – Yahoo Finance

On cross-country:

  • Taming the World’s Affordable Housing Crisis – Insead
  • The EU’s plan to make housing more affordable. The European Commission has a plan to tackle the housing squeeze even as it acknowledges that its powers are limited. – Politico
  • Why does the Anglosphere Suck at Housing? Speaking English is part of the problem – Home Economics
  • Global house price growth accelerates.

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Labels: Global Housing Watch

Housing View – October 4, 2024

On cross-country:

  • The house-price supercycle is just getting going. Why property prices could keep rising for years – The Economist
  • House prices and rents went up in Q2 2024 – Eurostat
  • House prices up by 1.3% in the euro area – Eurostat
  • Eurozone house prices rise for first time in more than a year. Annual increase of 1.3% in second quarter points to gradual recovery of region’s housing market – FT
  • The housing crisis is global. What are other countries doing about it? Australia is not the only country facing a housing crisis. Alan Kohler takes us on a whistle-stop tour of five governments trying to make homes more affordable – The Guardian


Working papers and conferences:

  • Racial Differences in the Total Rate of Return on Owner-Occupied Housing – SSRN
  • Disaster Risk and Rising Home Insurance Premiums – NBER
  • Psychological Effects of Air Pollution: Evidence from House Viewings – SSRN
  •  Did Brexiteers Get What They Voted for? Evidence from the Housing Market – SSRN
  • Why higher house prices lead to higher borrowing. The UK housing market has experienced a dramatic rise in house prices and mortgage debt over recent decades, both of which have outpaced average income growth. New research shows that much of the increase in mortgage debt can be attributed to homebuyers being compelled to borrow more in order to afford adequately sized homes. – LSE


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • US Home Price Insights –  October 2024 – CoreLogic
  • Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rate Ticked Up in August – Calculated Risk
  • US housing market: Home prices climb to new record high in July – S&P Global
  • Final Look at Local Housing Markets in August and a Look Ahead to September Sales – Calculated Risk
  • Mortgage Rates Continue Downward Trend in September – NAHB
  • Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased Slightly in August; Up 3.7% Year-over-year. Over the last 6 months, the seasonal adjusted index has increased at a 1.5% annual rate – Calculated Risk
  • Private Residential Construction Spending Falls for Third Straight Month – NAHB
  • FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores – Calculated Risk
  • Refinancing Activity Continues to Climb in September – NAHB
  • Majority of Americans Still Feel Locked in by Mortgage Rates—With More Than Half of Borrowers’ Rates Below 4% – realtor.com
  • 84% of Outstanding Mortgage Debt has a Sub-6% Rate – realtor.com
  • September 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – realtor.com


On the US—other developments:    

  • Edward Glaeser on Zoning, Land Use Regulation, and Urban Economics – Hoover Institution
  • How We Unintentionally Created the Affordable Housing Crisis – New York Times
  • Making housing more affordable – Brookings
  • Miami Housing Is Expensive. Just Don’t Call It a Bubble. The Florida city tops this year’s UBS ranking of global cities with elevated home prices. But the market’s fundamentals may not be as weak as they seem. – Bloomberg
  • Housing market shift: Here’s where homebuyers are gaining power fast. Buyers have gained some leverage in most resale markets over the past year, with some markets even becoming buyer’s markets. – Fast Company
  • In Las Vegas, housing could make or break the battle for the White House. Nevada, once known for its low living costs, has seen house prices soar and rents climb – can Trump take advantage? – The Guardian
  • In a Florida Town Ravaged by Storms, Homeowners All Want to Sell. Ballooning home insurance costs and the perennial threat of violent storms hit Tampa Bay housing market hard – Wall Street Journal
  • The San Diego infinite housing glitch. How a bonus ADU program allows ‘granny towers’ in gardens – The Work in Progress Newsletter
  • That Luxury Home Comes With an Ocean View—and Surging Insurance Costs. A lot of high-end real estate is in parts of the country that have become hotbeds for climate disasters in recent years – Wall Street Journal
  • J.D. Vance Actually Does Understand How Costs Get Passed Along the Supply Chain. Vance says higher energy prices make building houses more costly. What, then, do tariffs on steel and lumber do? – Reason
  • Three Principles for a Rental Assistance Guarantee – Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
  • Housing is having a moment. It’s not enough to fix wildfire insurance – Politico  


On China:

  • China Developers Offer Deals Betting Home Prices Will Hit Bottom. Moves come as policymakers unveil aggressive housing stimulus. Biggest builder to give refunds if prices drop after purchase – Bloomberg
  • China announces new measures to arrest housing slump and boost growth. Benefits to rise for poorest and local authorities to be given powers to intervene in real estate markets – The Guardian
  • China’s Politburo Supercharges Stimulus With Housing, Rates Vows. Politburo calls for measures to stop property market decline. Pledge to ensure fiscal spending among steps signaling urgency – Bloomberg
  • Can China’s stimulus bazooka repair confidence, income deficit in housing market? Fitch analyst sees more support measures next quarter to ensure Beijing’s latest stimulus bazooka achieves its aims – South China Morning Post
  • China Moves to Cut Mortgage Rates to Revive Housing Market – Bloomberg
  • China Removes Curbs on Home Buyers, Sparking Stock Market Surge. After seeing prices decline for years, Chinese officials have made a burst of policy changes aimed at making it easier to buy homes. – New York Times
  • China’s Housing Glut Collides With Its Shrinking Population. Many cities are stuck with empty homes that they will likely never fill, adding to the country’s economic woes – Wall Street Journal


On Australia and New Zealand

  • [Australia] Downsizing Baby Boomers Face Apartment Shortages in Sydney – Bloomberg
  • [New Zealand] House prices will stop falling soon – Corelogic – RNZ
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand House Prices Continue to Retreat Despite Rate Cuts – Market Watch
  • [New Zealand] Rate cuts haven’t pumped up house prices yet – Core Logic


On other countries:  

  • [Canada] In Canada’s hot small-city housing markets, rent-to-own is on the rise – Globe and Mail
  • [Canada] Toronto Home Prices Fall for Second Month as New Listings Surge. Buyers are gaining more negotiating power, market analyst says. Economists expect central bank to continue to lower its rate – Bloomberg
  • [Denmark] Denmark faces EU court questions on housing policy, racism – Reuters
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong needs to fix its student housing supply. The private student accommodation market shows great potential, but repurposing existing properties will only go so far to satisfy growing demand – South China Morning Post
  • [Ireland] House prices in Dublin rise 8.4% over past 12 months. Property advisers DNG expect resale market in the capital to reach 9% in 2024 – The Irish Times
  • [Ireland] House prices are now 37% higher than at start of Covid pandemic in 2020. Prices rise 3% in third quarter as shortage of second-hand homes for sale bites, according to Daft report – The Irish Times
  • [Korea] Seoul’s Apartment Market Cools More Ahead of BOK Rate Decision – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK Home Price Rise Most Since February, Nationwide Says. Mortage lender’s gauge shows market bounced back in September. Mortgage approvals rise to highest level since September 2022 – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices hit highest annual growth since 2022. Nationwide says yearly rise in house prices increased by 3.2% in September putting the average home at £266,094 – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] Yimbys hear this – simply building more homes won’t solve our housing crisis. The ‘yes in my back yard’ voices are getting louder, but housebuilding quality is more important than quantity – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] The Recovering UK Housing Market: Who Benefits? Prices and sales are rising. That’s good news for a wide range of sectors, not just builders. – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] U.K. Home Sales Soar as Mortgage Rates Ease. September’s agreed sales were 25% higher on year – Wall Street Journal
  • [United Kingdom] UK house sales rise at fastest pace in three years, data shows. Lower interest rates spur rise in buyer demand in September, says Zoopla – FT

On cross-country:

  • The house-price supercycle is just getting going. Why property prices could keep rising for years – The Economist
  • House prices and rents went up in Q2 2024 – Eurostat
  • House prices up by 1.3% in the euro area – Eurostat
  • Eurozone house prices rise for first time in more than a year. Annual increase of 1.3% in second quarter points to gradual recovery of region’s housing market – FT
  • The housing crisis is global.

Read the full article…

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Labels: Global Housing Watch

Housing View – September 27, 2024

On cross-country:

  • Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2024. Our analysis of residential property prices in 25 major cities shows bubble risk in housing markets declined further in 2024. Miami now shows the highest bubble risk for cities in this study, followed by Tokyo. – UBS
  • Miami Tops UBS Property Bubble Risk as Global Imbalances Decline. Global housing markets waiting for lower interest rates. Home prices in many cities have bottomed out, UBS says – Bloomberg
  • Residential Real Estate Regional Data Overview. Real estate data, both current and historical, spanning 69 countries and their respective regions. – Global Property Guide


Working papers and conferences:

  • 13th Annual Housing Center Conference on November 20 – American Enterprise Institute
  • Satellite-Based Census of Residential Buildings: Application for Climate Risk Assessment – IMF
  • Housing Markets Under the Microscope: City by City, Year by Year – Philadelphia Fed
  • A Closer Look at Housing Market Actors’ Dynamics in Responses to Sea Level Rise in Miami-Dade, Florida – SSRN


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 5.0% year-over-year in July. Over last 3 months, FHFA Index has increased at a 0.7% Annual Rate – Calculated Risk
  • Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% Below 2022 Peak. Price-to-rent index is 7.8% below 2022 peak – Calculated Risk
  • US monthly house prices edge up in July – Reuters
  • Home Price Growth Slowing – NAHB
  • MBA Statement on the “ROAD to Housing Act” – Mortgage Bankers Association
  • First-Time Buyer Share for New Homes is Slipping – NAHB
  • Impact of Short-Term Rental Regulation in Chicago – NAHB
  • Bedrooms in New Single-Family Homes in 2023 – NAHB
  • August 2024 Rental Report: Rental Affordability Improved From a Year Ago – realtor.com
  • Top 10 Cities Where Homes Sell for the Most Below the Asking Price Ago – realtor.com
  • Deregulation Can Fix the Housing Crunch. Increasing the supply of housing requires looser rules and fewer bureaucratic delays. – Reason
  • The home mortgage refinance mini-boom – Axios
  • US Mortgage Rates Fall Again, Triggering Wave of Refinancings – Bloomberg
  • Existing Home Sales Slide Despite Lower Mortgage Rates NAHB
  • New Home Sales Fall in August – NAHB
  • US new home sales fall less than expected; median house price declines – Reuters
  • New-Home Sales Dip in August Despite Easing Mortgage Rates and Listing Prices – realtor.com  
  • New Home Sales Decrease to 716,000 Annual Rate in August. Median New Home Price is Down 9% from the Peak – Calculated Risk
  • More New Listings at Major Climate Risk Now Than Five Years Ago – Zillow


On the US—other developments:    

  • How the cost housing became so crushing. The roots of the property crisis run deep and have proved very hard to fix – New York Times
  • How Higher Property Insurance Premiums Mirror Climate Risk. Homeowner’s insurance premiums have risen by a third between 2020 and 2023 as insurers passed on higher reinsurance costs, according to a new study co-authored by Wharton’s Benjamin Keys. – Wharton
  • The Kamala Harris Plan for More Housing Shortages. Her plan would stimulate demand, not supply, and redistribute wealth to the sellers of existing homes. – Wall Street Journal
  • What do we know about Kamala Harris’ economic plans on taxes, housing, manufacturing? – Reuters
  • Unlocking the Hidden Power of Zoning, for Good or Bad. In her new book, lawyer and architect Sara Bronin shows how land use regulations shaped US cities and makes a case for using these rules for progressive aims. – Bloomberg
  • Has the Fed rate cut thawed the housing markets? Northeastern experts say play the long game – Northeastern
  • New policies needed to boost homeownership. Interest rate cut was the first step. More are needed. – Washington Post
  • Boomers Own 38% of America’s Homes—but More Than Half Never Plan To Sell – Realtor.com
  • Fed Rate Cut 101: A Housing Economist Reveals Everything Homebuyers and Sellers Need To Know – Realtor.com
  • Custom Home Building Share Declines in 2023 – NAHB
  • Why Jerome Powell says the Fed alone can’t fix the broken housing market. According to Powell, ‘The real issue with housing is that we have had, and are on track to continue to have, not enough housing.’ – Fast Company
  • Central Planning Will Not Solve California’s Housing Shortage – Cato Institute 
  • Home Ownership Slightly More Affordable Across U.S. in Third Quarter but Still Difficult for Average Workers – ATTOM


On China:

  • China’s Politburo Supercharges Stimulus With Housing, Rates Vows. Politburo calls for measures to stop property market decline. Pledge to ensure fiscal spending among steps signaling urgency – Bloomberg
  • China’s Homeowners Are Outraged. The Property Market Is Still a Mess. – Barron’s
  • Economists Urge China to Ramp Up Housing Rescue to Propel Growth. Most analysts favored property rescue as best stimulus option. Chinese government-led package has been beset by slow progress – Bloomberg
  • China Cuts Interest Rates and Mortgage Down Payments. The country’s central bank also freed commercial banks to lend more money in a package of moves aimed at rekindling growth in a stagnant economy. – New York Times    


On Australia and New Zealand

  • [Australia] Axing negative gearing won’t cause a rental crisis. Here’s the maths. When an investor outbids an owner-occupier, they do add to the supply of rental houses – but that’s only half the story – The Guardian
  • [Australia] ‘Stop doing dumb stuff,’ economist warns as housing affordability in Australia slips. Saul Eslake says decades of ‘bad policies’ have inflated demand as report finds about 20% of households effectively ‘locked out’ of the market – The Guardian
  • [Australia] Housing stoush ramps up as Labor accuses Greens MPs of opposing Brisbane projects. Bill Shorten accuses Greens of ‘unholy alliance’ with Coalition to delay government’s Help to Buy scheme – The Guardian
  • [Australia] Why has Australia fallen so short on housing targets – and how can it get out of the crisis? Amid rising costs and a lack of productivity in the construction sector, some say relaxing building standards could help. But others aren’t convinced – The Guardian
  • [Australia] RBA Set to Extend Rate Pause as Housing Crisis Props Up Prices – Bloomberg
  • [Australia] Is Australia’s Unaffordable Housing a Foreign Policy Problem? A “whole-of-nation” approach to foreign policy would understand how each element of domestic policy is critical to enhancing the country’s overall capabilities and international power – including housing. – Diplomat
  • [Australia] These newly minted million-dollar suburbs are breaking records – Financial Review


On other countries:  

  • [Argentina] Argentina Scrapped Its Rent Controls. Now the Market Is Thriving.
  • President Javier Milei’s fiscal ‘shock therapy’ yields lower rents overall, but some people feel squeezed – Wall Street Journal
  • [Germany] German home prices decline in Q2 but show some stabilization – Reuters
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s property market set to revive gradually as rate cuts buoy sentiment, demand. The first rate cut should lure more homebuyers back to showrooms, and prices are appealing after a 25 per cent slump from peak, analysts say – South China Morning Post
  • [Hong Kong] There is no quick recovery from Hong Kong’s property slump. Despite last week’s interest rate cut, new home sales have only fallen further – FT
  • [Ireland] Rent Cap Locks Billions of Euros Out of Irish Housing, CBRE Says – Bloomberg
  • [Italy] Even in Its Priciest Neighborhoods, Buying in Rome Remains a Bargain. Compared with other luxury housing markets in Europe, buyers get more bang for their buck in Italy’s capital – Wall Street Journal
  • [Korea] South Korea’s central bank chief warns over Gangnam-style housing boom. Rhee Chang-yong calls for caps on university admissions from upmarket capital districts to check price growth – FT
  • [Korea] Bank of Korea May Cut Before Housing Cools 100%, Member Says. Board member points to need to aid private consumption. BOK keeps investors guessing over timing for rate cut – Bloomberg
  • [Korea] Seoul Apartment Price Growth Slows in Early Sign of Property Cooling as BOK Mulls Rate. Bank of Korea monitoring home-price data ahead of decision. Seoul apartments represent major driver of household debt – Bloomberg
  • [Latvia] Latvia Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
  • [Lithuania] Lithuania Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2024 Global Property Guide
  • Dutch Home Prices Jump Most in Two Years as Shortage Lingers. August house prices increased 11% compared to prior year. Average transaction price of existing home was €466,207 – Bloomberg
  • [Slovakia] Slovakia Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
  • [Taiwan] Taiwan Raises RRR Again to Cool Off Property Market, Holds Rate. Central bank boosts amount of funds banks must hold in reserve. Housing costs in Taiwan have risen for 23 straight quarters – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Surging UK Home Prices Pose a ‘Significant Challenge,’ Scottish Widows Says – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Angela Rayner hints at major social housing announcement. Deputy prime minister tells Labour conference she expects chancellor to make promise on building at spending review – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] Labour, beware: Britain’s housing crisis is driving voters towards populism. Whenever I talk to people who are bitterly disconnected from politics, they raise the lack of decent homes. That’s the stark truth the party needs to address – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] Labour’s housing plans are flawed – LSE

On cross-country:

  • Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2024. Our analysis of residential property prices in 25 major cities shows bubble risk in housing markets declined further in 2024. Miami now shows the highest bubble risk for cities in this study, followed by Tokyo. – UBS
  • Miami Tops UBS Property Bubble Risk as Global Imbalances Decline. Global housing markets waiting for lower interest rates. Home prices in many cities have bottomed out,

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Housing View – September 20, 2024

Working papers and conferences:

  • Do Housing Supply Skeptics Learn? Evidence from Economics and Advocacy Treatments SSRN
  • NAR Settlement, House Prices, and Consumer Welfare – SSRN
  • House prices react rapidly to rates shocks – BIS paper. Monetary policy transmission stronger in US property market than previously thought, study argues – Central Banking


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Mortgage Rates Puzzle Is a Worry for Housing and the Fed. The conventional logic of lower borrowing costs stimulating home purchases and household spending may not quite apply this time around. – Bloomberg
  • Mortgage Rates Plunge to 6.2% in More ‘Forgiving and Flexible’ Housing Market – Realtor.com 
  • Trump Allies Are Working on Plans to Privatize Fannie and Freddie. A deal would call for the government to try to sell a chunk of its holdings in the mortgage giants to investors, including sovereign-wealth funds – Wall Street Journal
  • Rent controls will not deter housing investment, US mega-landlord says. Greystar chief says caps need not stop institutional investors funding new homes – FT
  • Mortgage payments fall lower than rent in 22 of the 50 largest US metros – Zillow
  • New Study on How to Address Public Ignorance About Housing Policy. New data shows that “housing supply skeptics” can be persuaded by evidence showing that allowing more construction reduces prices. But not clear this is a good road map for addressing the problem of public ignorance in the real world. – Reason
  • Apartment Construction Time Averaged 20 Months in 2023 NAHB
  • Single-Family Permits Up in July 2024 – NAHB  
  • The “Home ATM” Mostly Closed in Q2. Total Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was Slightly Positive in Q2 – Calculated Risk
  • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2024 – Calculated Risk
  • 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in August 2024 – Calculated Risk
  • Rate drops, more inventory add intrigue to housing ‘offseason’ – Zillow
  • Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Sept. 7, 2024 – Realtor.com
  • Single-Family Starts Up in August but Supply-Side Issues Linger – NAHB
  • US single-family homebuilding rebounds, rising supply could limit momentum – Reuters
  • Existing Home Sales on Pace to Hit Nearly 30-Year Low, Despite Recently Lower Rates. Mortgage Rates Now Forecast to Average 5.7% by End of 2025 – Fannie Mae
  • Further Declines in Mortgage Rates Needed to Address Affordability and Spur Home Sales – Fannie Mae
  • Strong August New Construction Activity Means More Options for Buyers This Fall.  – Realtor.com   
  • Price Growth for Inputs to Residential Construction Slows in August – NAHB
  • US Housing Starts Increase to Fastest Pace Since April. New construction rose 9.6% in August to 1.36 million pace. Gain due to more one-family home starts; permits also climbed – Bloomberg


On the US—other developments:    

  • Kamala Harris’s Down-Payment Boost Isn’t for Buying Houses. The logic is political. – Wall Street Journal
  • Why Harris and Trump can’t stop talking about housing – Axios
  • Making housing more affordable: Issues at stake in the 2024 election – Brookings
  • Why a Fed Rate Cut Won’t Solve the Housing Wealth Gap. With home prices near record highs and cost of home insurance and property taxes rising, affordability remains an issue – Wall Street Journal
  • Is America’s housing crisis determining how you vote this November? – CNN
  • Nearly Half of Renter Households Are Cost-Burdened, Proportions Differ by Race – US Census Bureau
  • 4 Ways Trump’s Housing Policies Could Affect Middle-Class Homebuyers – Yahoo Finance
  • The Market Alone Can’t Fix the U.S. Housing Crisis. Any plan to overhaul the housing market needs to, first, confront the power of landlords to raise rents. Second, it requires rethinking public governance of housing markets behind simplistic prescriptions to just free the housing market from government regulation, assuming lower rents will follow. And third, it needs to provide more muscular government involvement in housing, through price regulation, more robust planning, and even direct public provision. – Harvard Business Review
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Tina Smith: Our Solution to the Housing Crisis – New York Times
  • Social Housing Goes to Washington. With the newly introduced Homes Act, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is pushing legislation to create the next generation of decommodified, dignified homes, including public housing and co-ops. – Jacobin
  • Why the Pro-Housing ‘Yimby’ Movement Is Wading Into the Election. Harris’s proposal to build millions more homes draws fans among ‘Yes in My Backyard’ activists – Wall Street Journal
  • Selling in Jacksonville Is Rough Going—Unless Your Home Costs Millions. Mortgage rates have created a ‘Jekyll and Hyde market,’ where sales of nonluxury properties have declined while the high end thrives – Wall Street Journal
  • The Week in Review. Week of Sept 9 — Housing sentiment sags, Prices plod – Home Economics
  • These Millionaires Can Afford Their Dream Home. They’re Renting Instead. The rise in wealthy renters reflects how the calculus around homeownership has changed in the U.S. – Wall Street Journal
  • Q2 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO. REO: lender Real Estate Owned – Calculated Risk
  • Flipping Was Big After the Housing Crisis of 2008 … But Is It Still a Path to Profits? – ATTOM
  • Builder Sentiment Rises as Rates Fall but Affordability Challenges Persist – NAHB
  • New Construction Insights: Newly-Built Homes Becoming Smaller, More Affordable – Realtor.com
  • Incentivizing Housing That Is Affordable, Sustainable, and Transit-Accessible. Reforming existing federal programs to expand the supply of affordable, sustainable, and transit-accessible housing will provide millions of Americans with a stable foundation for economic success. – Center for American Progress
  • Building Opportunity: Expanding Housing in America by Reforming Local Land Use. Reducing regulatory barriers to housing production can unleash new supply and serve as an important complement to federal, state, and local programs that provide direct subsidies for low-income housing construction and maintenance. – Center for American Progress


On China:

  • China’s Falling House Prices an Expected Adjustment as Economy Develops, Says Analyst – Caixin
  • China to Cut Rates on $5 Trillion Mortgages as Soon as September. Some banks are making final preparations for rate adjustments. Move may spur household consumption, hurt bank profitability – Bloomberg


On Australia and New Zealand

  • [Australia] Housing is eating the economy in countless ways. Australia’s housing woes are causing policymakers, investors and households to make decisions they might not ordinarily make. But to fix it, we need to escape a vicious cycle. – Financial Review
  • [Australia] Home ownership in Australia has been in retreat for decades. How does it stack up against other countries? Many OECD countries have experienced similar patterns of declining homeowner numbers – and ageing populations are projected to drive the rate even lower – The Guardian
  • [Australia] House price growth to soften as spring swings in favour of buyers – Financial Review
  • [Australia] Australia Struggles to Solve Housing Crisis as Politicians Scrap – Bloomberg
  • [Australia] Coalition plan to give first home buyers access to super would benefit ‘those who already own housing’. Saul Eslake report finds plan would cause Australian property prices to rise at a faster rate – The Guardian 
  • [Australia] The severity of Australia’s housing affordability crisis is obvious – this is how politicians could fix it. Affordability is too important to allow this status quo to continue. Housing underpins our economy and our society – The Guardian 
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices rise on month, more confidence in market, survey says – Reuters


On other countries:  

  • [Canada] Canada relaxes some mortgage rules to tackle housing crisis – Reuters
  • [Canada] Government announces boldest mortgage reforms in decades to unlock homeownership for more Canadians – Government of Canada
  • [Canada] Waiting for lower interest rates? Why variable-rate mortgage borrowers may see disappointing discounts – Globe and Mail
  • [Canada] Canada’s mortgage stress test is hurting the buyers it was meant to protect – Globe and Mail
  • [Canada] Canada’s ‘Mortgage Wall’ Worries Are Easing as Rate Outlook Shifts – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Canadian housing starts tumble 22% in August – Reuters
  • [India] House Prices in India – How High, and for How Long? – CSEP 
  • [Ireland] Dublin house prices surpass Celtic Tiger peak – BBC
  • [Israel] Israeli inflation picks up more than forecast as travel costs and home prices soar. Consumer prices accelerated to 3.6% in August, the highest level since October, reducing the odds that the central bank will cut high borrowing costs in the coming months – The Times of Israel
  • [Norway] Norges Bank Survey Shows Activity Holding Up, Cooling Rate Bets – Bloomberg
  • [Portugal] Portugal launches new $2.22-bln package to counter housing crisis – Reuters
  • [Singapore] Singapore Home Sales Plunge Again Due to Lack of Supply – Bloomberg
  • [Singapore] Singapore Home Sales Set for Worst Year Since Financial Crisis. Standoff between developers and homebuyers is slowing market. Property consultants slashed 2024 forecasts after weak August – Bloomberg
  • [Slovenia] Housing market challenges and policy options – OECD
  • [Spain] Strong demand and short supply shape Spain’s real estate sector. The rapid growth of Spain’s real estate market in terms of demand and prices during the first half of the year has led us to revise upwards our forecasts for the Spanish real estate sector for 2024 and 2025. However, strong demand and short supply will determine the sector’s behaviour. – Caixa Bank
  • [United Kingdom] Clubonomics: could a nearby members’ club influence your property’s prospects? These elite retreats are on the rise globally. But whether or not you pay the joining fee, their influence is stretching beyond the gates in myriad ways – FT
  • [United Kingdom] As Mortgage Rates Dip, UK House Prices Are Rising Again. Lower interest rates are encouraging more activity in the UK property market. – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] The 40-year mortgage – solution to rising property values or too high a price to pay? Deals that last four decades can help some get on the property ladder, but the overall cost may be a shock – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] London’s high-end property market cools on worries about tax hit – Reuters

Working papers and conferences:

  • Do Housing Supply Skeptics Learn? Evidence from Economics and Advocacy Treatments SSRN
  • NAR Settlement, House Prices, and Consumer Welfare – SSRN
  • House prices react rapidly to rates shocks – BIS paper. Monetary policy transmission stronger in US property market than previously thought, study argues – Central Banking

On the US—developments on house prices,

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Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Housing View – September 13, 2024

On cross-country:

  • The global housing affordability crisis – Axios
  • European banks set for slowest mortgage lending growth in decade. Record interest rates have sent a chill through the market – FT


Working papers and conferences:

  • House price responses to monetary policy surprises: evidence from US listings data – BIS
  • Insurers Monitor Shocks to Collateral: Micro Evidence from Mortgage-backed Securities – CEPR
  • Racial Differences in the Total Rate of Return on Owner-Occupied Housing – NBER
  • The Impact of Real Estate Agents’ Expertise on House Prices and TOM SSRN
  • Upzoning with Strings Attached: Evidence from Seattle’s Affordable Housing Mandate – SSRN


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Refinancing Activity Jumped in August as Mortgage Rates Declined – NAHB
  • The best tool to address the housing crisis is sitting within Fannie Mae. Make it easier to get a mortgage. – Washington Post
  • Are Mortgage Rates Dropping?: Explaining What’s Happening to Interest Rates in 2024 – Redfin
  • National Housing Survey. Mortgage Rate Optimism Spikes, but Homebuying Pessimism Persists – Fannie Mae
  • Home Purchase Sentiment Improves Slightly as Mortgage Rates Fall in August – Realtor.com
  • How to fix the housing market. High prices usually boost supply, but not in housing. What’s wrong? – FT
  • NYC’s rules one year later: Higher prices for travelers, no housing impact – Airbnb  
  • Housing market shift: This interactive map shows where sellers—or buyers—have more power. Zillow’s Market Heat Index shows whether a metro-area housing market is a buyer’s or seller’s market. – Fast Company
  • House Price Weekend: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 5.4% year-over-year in June. FHFA House Price Index Declined Slightly month-over-month in June – Calculated Risk
  • August 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
  • New Home Sales Increased to 739,000 Annual Rate in July – Calculated Risk
  • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in August. Early Reports Suggest First YoY Sales Increase in 3 Years – Calculated Risk
  • Event: Reforming Land Use Regulation to Encourage Housing Supply on October 1. A conversation at the Minneapolis Fed on changes made and lessons learned in designing policies that influence housing production – Minneapolis Fed
  • A New York oasis lies in path of city’s push to build housing – Reuters
  • August 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
  • New Review Spotlights the Unintended Consequences of Rent Control – NAHB
  • Second Home Areas Gaining Home Building Market Share – NAHB
  • ICE Mortgage Monitor: House Price Growth Slows, Inventory Surges in Florida and Texas – NAHB
  • US Home Price Insights – September 2024 – CoreLogic
  • Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
  • America’s Hottest Housing Market Has Ranked No. 1 a Record 29 Times – Realtor.com
  • Rent, utilities rose faster than home values for first time in a decade. New data from the 2023 American Community Survey also showed that nearly half of renters’ households spent more than 30 percent of their income on housing. – Washington Post 
  • Homebuyers Hit by Price Surge, Supply Crunch Rock 2024 Election. Harris proposes 3 million units to ease housing shortage. Trump plans to open up federal lands for housing development – Bloomberg
  • US house prices are forecast to rise more than 4% next year – Goldman Sachs
  • Housing is the main inflation problem – Axios
  • The Role of Housing in U.S. Inflation – The White House  


On the US—other developments:    

  • Make homes affordable again. The unreachable American dream of ownership could be a decisive issue in the presidential contest – FT
  • What Will It Take to Make Housing More Affordable? Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is campaigning on a proposal to make housing more affordable by providing down payment assistance for first-time home buyers and encouraging construction of new housing. – Yale
  • The American Dream Without a House? Believe It. As housing costs soar, younger adults are trying to reimagine prosperity — without the white picket fence. – New York Times
  • How to Break—and Fix—Housing Markets. Housing prices are too high. Harris will push them higher. – Wall Street Journal
  • Here’s What Harris and Trump Have Proposed to Help the Housing Crisis – Time
  • The government cannot solve America’s housing crisis – The Hill  
  • How Americans Voted Their Way Into a Housing Crisis. A new book from Jerusalem Demsas explores how local elections, community meetings and other democratic structures brought on a national shortage of affordable homes. – Bloomberg
  • How Not to Make Housing Affordable. Kamala Harris could learn from New York City’s failed example. – Wall Street Journal
  • The American Dream Without a House? Believe It.  As housing costs soar, younger adults are trying to reimagine prosperity — without the white picket fence. – New York Times  
  • Housing Markets in California, New Jersey and Illinois Still have Elevated Risk of Downturns in Second Quarter of 2024 – ATTOM
  • Top 10 Most Vulnerable U.S. Housing Markets in Q2 2024 – ATTOM
  • There Was a Housing Bubble in Atlanta Prior to the Crash – CEPR
  • The Week in Review. Week of Sept 2 — Jobs for humans and robots – Home Economics
  • Affordability Challenges and the Composition of Middle-Income Renters – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
  • How buyers, sellers and agents are navigating the real estate shake-up. New rules on agent commissions formally kicked in last month but have already been having an effect on the ground. – Washington Post
  • Home Buyers Are Looking for Amenity Loaded Kitchens and Bathrooms – NAHB
  • Rising Homeownership Rate for Multigenerational Households – NAHB


On China:

  • Will China’s latest urbanization push work? – Peterson Institute
  • China has the savings to deal with property crisis, with no global spillover: economist. S&P Global Ratings global chief economist Paul Gruenwald says China is under no external or market pressure to deal with the property market – South China Morning Post
  • China’s Unworkable Housing Rescue Math Is Prolonging Crisis. Local cities have made little headway since big rescue in May. Buying unsold homes will further stress local government debt – Bloomberg


On Australia and New Zealand

  • [Australia] Meet the Viral Housing Activist Running for Australian Senate. Jordie van den Lamb, better known by social media handle “purplepingers,” has warmed the hearts of renters worldwide with his uncompromisingly deadpan war on landlords. Now he’s taking the fight to their Australian headquarters, Parliament House. – Jacobin
  • [New Zealand] Lower interest rates may take time to ripple through the housing market – CoreLogic
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand Housing Construction Slump Highlights Recession Risk – Bloomberg


On other countries:  

  • [Canada] Rate cuts have yet to pull Canada’s housing markets out of their slump – RBC
  • [Denmark] Denmark’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong targets tenants with luxury cars over misuse of social housing. Chinese territory under pressure from Beijing to ensure affordable homes are allocated to those who need them – FT
  • [Hong Kong] Devil in the details in Hong Kong’s efforts to raise housing game. While a design guide and community living rooms are encouraging steps, government should adopt a people-centric approach across the board – South China Morning Post
  • [Ireland] Housing in Ireland is broken – New York Times
  • [Netherlands] The Netherlands’ Rent Control Disaster. The Dutch government’s radical expansion of rent control is displacing tenants and aggravating a preexisting housing shortage. – Reason
  • [Portugal] Rich Americans flock to Portugal’s Algarve, sparking home sales frenzy. Property prices have risen over 30 per cent in the past year, driven by a surge in US buyers seeking a new lifestyle – South China Morning Post
  • [Singapore] Singapore Will ‘Act Decisively’ on More Housing Curbs If Needed – Bloomberg
  • [Sweden] Swedes More Upbeat on Housing Prices as Rate Cuts Provide Relief – Bloomberg
  • [Taiwan] Why Taiwan is struggling to curb its tech-fuelled housing boom. Housing has risen to the top of Taiwan’s policy agenda, but differences between the government and central bank are slowing progress – South China Morning Post
  • [United Arab Emirates] Dubai Family Bets on Luxury Property Boom With $1 Billion Towers. Homes at Sankari Properties’ project start at $11 million. Dubai’s high-end market not seeing any saturation: CEO – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Near Record After BOE Rate Cut, Halifax Says. Prices rise 0.3% in August, the second straight increase. Data add to optimism over stronger autumn for housing market – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK apartment prices underperform rest of market since 2019. Flexible working and concerns over cladding drive buyers towards other property types – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK Housing Market Gains Momentum After BOE Rate Cut, RICS Says – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] The Urgent Need to Build More Homes – Tony Blair Institute for Global Change

On cross-country:

  • The global housing affordability crisis – Axios
  • European banks set for slowest mortgage lending growth in decade. Record interest rates have sent a chill through the market – FT

Working papers and conferences:

  • House price responses to monetary policy surprises: evidence from US listings data – BIS
  • Insurers Monitor Shocks to Collateral: Micro Evidence from Mortgage-backed Securities – CEPR
  • Racial Differences in the Total Rate of Return on Owner-Occupied Housing – NBER
  • The Impact of Real Estate Agents’

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Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

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