The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Ali Soltani, Alireza Dehghani, and Parviz Azizi:

“Urban expansion has traditionally been studied in terms of horizontal sprawl, overlooking the role of vertical densification. This paper adopts a volumetric approach to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban growth in the Tehran Metropolitan Region (TMR) from 1985 to 2024, addressing two key objectives: (a) to examine border patterns of volumetric growth, demographic shifts, and intra-urban variations, and (b) to identify the underlying drivers of volumetric expansion. Using Landsat imagery, Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) data, and population statistics from the Statistical Center of Iran, we apply spatial-statistical methods and the XGBoost-SHAP machine learning framework to assess urban expansion patterns and their driving forces. Our findings reveal a transition from vertical densification to horizontal sprawl, with urban expansion increasingly adopting an outward trajectory. Intra-urban analysis uncovers a diffusion-coalescence pattern, where vertical densification often follows horizontal expansion but can also occur concurrently. While older urban segments continue to densify vertically due to land scarcity, newly developed areas exhibit distinct volumetric characteristics, reflecting a cyclical interplay between centralization and decentralization. The XGBoost-SHAP analysis highlights a shift in driving forces from spatial inertia to population-driven growth and, more recently, to economic and geographic constraints. By integrating remote sensing, spatial analysis, and machine learning, this study provides a systematic and data-driven framework for understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban expansion and its underlying drivers. The findings underscore the importance of integrated urban planning strategies that balance vertical and horizontal growth, optimize land use, and enhance sustainability. Incorporating volumetric analysis into planning frameworks can foster more adaptive, resource-efficient, and resilient urban development.”

From a paper by José Alberto Fuinhas, Daniela Castilho, Volkan Kaymaz, and Matheus Koengkan:

“In this empirical investigation, the influence of tourism on housing prices was studied for 13 European Union countries from 2005 to 2019 using cs-ARDL and Quantile cs-ARDL econometric approaches. The findings reveal a positive effect running from the tourism sector (represented by tourism revenues and the number of arrivals) to housing price indices, indicating that this industry significantly impacts real estate markets. Moreover, the results show that economic growth, bank credit, and population growth drive house prices. These outcomes have significant implications for policymakers, highlighting the dual nature of tourism’s impact and the need for a careful balance between promoting tourism as an economic strategy and ensuring housing affordability for residents.”

On cross-country:

• 2025 Global Housing and Mortgage Outlook Mid-Year Update – Fitch
• A broken housing market is driving inequality right across Europe – and fuelling the far right. From Lisbon to Amsterdam, housing policy has led to haves and have-nots. But, as our new series uncovers, it doesn’t have to be this way – The Guardian

Working papers and conferences:

• Mortgage Market Structure and the Transmission of Monetary Policy During the Great Inflation – VoxEU
• Central Bank Communication and House Price Expectations – SSRN
• Housing Market Spillovers in China via Trading Volume: A Comparison of Two Spillover Indexes – SSRN
• Chinese Housing Market Sentiment Index: A Generative Ai Approach – SSRN 
• Residential real estate (RRE) lending standards: determinants and financial stability implications – ECB

On China:

• China rolls out official ‘property supermarkets’ to prop up creaking housing market. Proponents say these property hubs make transactions more centralised and trustworthy as they are vetted by local governments – South China Morning Post

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Home construction must double over next decade to restore 2019 affordability: CMHC – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Housing shortages in Canada – CMHC
• [Canada] Updating Canada’s housing supply shortages: new housing supply gap estimates – CMHC
• [Canada] CMHC gives up on comparing housing affordability to 2004 levels – Globe and Mail  
• [Canada] Doubling Home Construction Will Barely Improve Affordability in Canada: CMHC – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Canada home prices to decline 2% as trade war hits homebuyer confidence – Reuters
• [France] French Housing Loans Recovery Underway but Remains Fragile – Fitch Ratings
• [Hong Kong] Despite property market slump, Hong Kong must increase housing supply. Government should not repeat post-1997 mistake of shelving plans to increase long-term housing supply because of a temporary market dip – South China Morning Post
• [Hong Kong] The Hong Kong property developer rushing to refinance billions of dollars in loans. New World’s negotiations with banks come after years of ambitious debt-fuelled expansion – FT
• [Portugal] Foreigners pay twice as much as locals to buy Portugal homes – Bloomberg
• [South Korea] South Korea to Announce Measures to Cool House Prices, Yonhap – Bloomberg
• [Spain] La crisis de la vivienda también impacta en el empleo: reducir un 30% el precio crearía 410.000 trabajos. La rebaja inyectaría en la economía 25.000 millones de euros en cinco años, ya que las familias podrían consumir más, según un informe de CC OO – El Pais
• [United Kingdom] UK ministers urged to ‘get on’ with stronger homebuyer protections. Consumer group warns people have more rights buying a toaster than a new house – FT
• [United Kingdom] Interest-only mortgage could make comeback as regulator revisits rules. Financial Conduct Authority looks at whether the product it once called a ‘ticking timebomb’ can support home ownership – The Guardian

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• U.S. Home Price Growth Cools to Near-Two-Year Low. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 2.7% in the 12 months to April – Wall Street Journal
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.7% year-over-year in April –Calculated Risk
• Housing market at risk of “sustained downturn” as price growth cools – Axios
• Mapping Home Price Changes – New York Fed
• Housing market map: Zillow just released its updated home price forecast for 400-plus housing markets. Zillow projects that U.S. home prices will fall 0.7% from May 2025 to May 2026. – Fast Company
• These 96 housing markets are seeing falling home prices. Among the 300 largest metro-area housing markets, these 96 markets are seeing falling home prices on a year-over-year basis. – Fast Company
• What Trump’s Bomb Strike on Iran Means for Mortgage Rates in the US – Realtor.com

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Housing market weakness triggers Lennar to offer biggest incentives since 2009. There is a consensus among major publicly traded homebuilders that the spring 2025 housing market was softer than expected. – Fast Company
• Single-family Construction Loan Volume Grows – NAHB
• Home Prices Stay Steady as Buyers Take Their Time – Realtor.com
• Buyer’s or seller’s housing market? Zillow’s new rating for 250 major markets. Where home sellers—and home buyers—have the most power right now, according to Zillow’s updated analysis released in June. – Fast Company
• Real USA Home Prices Flat for 1 Year & 19% Above 2006 Peak – Real Estate Decoded
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.03 million SAAR in May; Down 0.7% YoY. Median House Prices Increased 1.3% Year-over-Year – Calculated Risk
• Existing Home Sales Edge Higher in May – NAHB
• New Home Sales Decrease to 623,000 Annual Rate in May. Median New Home Price is Down 7% from the Peak due to Change in Mix – Calculated Risk
• California Home Sales “Sputter” in May; 4th Look at Local Markets. California Active Inventory Highest Reached 67-Month High – Calculated Risk
• Home Sales Stay Sluggish in May as Mortgage Rates and Uncertainty Weigh on Market – Realtor.com
• Home Sales Rose in May, but Housing Market Is Still Sluggish. Existing-home sales edge up 0.8%, ending two-month streak of declines – Wall Street Journal
• U.S. New Home Sales Slump as High Mortgage Rates Persist. Sales of new single-family homes fell 13.7% to 623,000 in May – Wall Street Journal
• How Small Apartments in Big Buildings Became the US Norm. To what extent was the construction boom a product of the sometimes-perverse incentives and disincentives facing developers? – Bloomberg
• Homeownership: Not Enough Supply for Middle-Income Buyers. For teachers, nurses and other skilled workers, few options. – New York Times
• California Democrats wage internal war over Gavin Newsom’s late push to build more housing. Governor is drawing heavy resistance to his housing development proposal. – Politico

On other developments:    

• Interactive Tool Charts Pandemic Homebuying Trends – San Francisco Fed
• The State of the Nation’s Housing 2025 – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Unease in the Housing Market Amid a Worsening Affordability Crisis – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Zohran Mamdani’s policies will (mostly) not bring abundance to NYC. Progressive ideas still try to defy economic realities. – Noahpinion
• Is U.S. Lumber Self-Reliance Possible? – NAHB
• Institutional Investors Aren’t the Villains of America’s Housing Market – National Review
• More Homeowners Find Themselves Underwater. Some who bought around the market peak in pandemic boomtowns owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth – Wall Street Journal
• Buyers in the Priciest Housing Markets Need 80% Down To Afford Monthly Costs – Realtor.com
• Thoughts on the Big, Fascinating, Exciting Mamdani Upset! The affordability crisis is real. Mamdani’s offering solutions where others, including the president, not only have nothing, but are making it worse. – Jared Bernstein 
• New York’s Housing Crisis Is So Bad That a Socialist Is Poised to Become Mayor. Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old who campaigned on rent freezes, emerged victorious in the city’s Democratic primary – Wall Street Journal
• Will Zohran Mamdani’s Housing Plan Actually Work in New York City? – Realtor.com
• On Housing, All New York Politicians Are Socialists. Allegedly sane, centrist opponents of New York City’s socialist mayoral candidate are all too happy to regulate rental housing into the ground. – Reason
• New Yorkers Vote to Make Their Housing Shortage Worse. Austin, Texas, and other red-state cities have set an example for how to make housing markets work – New York Times
• A New Rail Line May Come to New York. Will a Housing Boom Follow? The Interborough Express, a rail line connecting Brooklyn and Queens, could spur the building of tens of thousands of homes. Obstacles await. – New York Times
• Elevated Rates, Challenging Affordability Conditions Put a Damper on New Home Sales – NAHB
• Housing market at risk of “sustained downturn” as price growth cools – Axios
• Confronting the affordable-housing crisis – McKinsey
• Why Do Republicans Support the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit? Publicly funded homes in some cities are costing taxpayers more than $1 million per unit, but Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” would increase funding for these inefficient projects. – Reason
• San Francisco’s Luxury Housing Market Is Booming Again Thanks to AI Wealth. A new report from Sotheby’s International Realty says the top end of the market has undergone a renaissance. – Bloomberg
• Affordability Crisis Worsens as Home Prices Hit ‘Shocking’ New High—5 Times What the Typical Household Earns – Realtor.com
• Where Are the Least Competitive Housing Markets? – Zillow
• Housing Department to Move Headquarters, Booting National Science Foundation. The plan to depart Washington and take over the science agency building in Virginia raised questions about where N.S.F. employees would go. – New York Times

Working papers and conferences:

• 5^th International Workshop on Rent Control – Universitat Rovira i Virgili
• Housing, Climate Risk, and Insurance – NBER
• Response to “Supply Constraints do not Explain House Price and Quantity Growth Across U.S. Cities” by Louie, Mondragon, and Wieland – SSRN
• Influence of Demography on Housing Prices in Taiwan – SSRN
• House Prices, Debt Burdens, and the Heterogeneous Effects of Mortgage Rate Shocks – SSRN
• Comparing the Effectiveness of Rental Subsidies and Homeownership Subsidies in Addressing Housing Affordability in New Zealand: Evidence from Auckland – SSRN
• Discrimination Against Housing Vouchers: Evidence from Online Rental Listings – SSRN    

On China:

• China’s home prices dip in May, extending two-year slump – Reuters
• As China’s housing slump deepens, consumers open their wallets to spend. China sees a declining housing market amid a jump in consumer spending. Here’s what it means for the world’s second-largest economy – Quartz
• China’s property market recovery stalls as falling prices hit sentiment. Data sets back hopes that struggling market could stabilise this year – FT
• China housing demand to stay at 75 below peak, Goldman says – Bloomberg

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Labor has promised 1.2m new homes in its second term. Is it possible? Experts weigh in on what Australia needs to change to get more houses, more quickly – from fixing a 2,000-page code, to backing modular builds – The Guardian
• [Australia] Building our way out of social housing unaffordability may no longer be possible. Australia is still spending nowhere near enough to decisively reverse decades of neglect. Winding down tax breaks might be the answer – The Guardian
• [Australia] Building our way out of social housing unaffordability may no longer be possible. Australia is still spending nowhere near enough to decisively reverse decades of neglect. Winding down tax breaks might be the answer – The Guardian
• [Australia] How to tackle Australia’s housing crisis – Grattan Institute
• [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices edge lower in May as market remains soft – Reuters

On other countries:  

• [Canada] P.E.I. population growth outpacing homebuilding rate – Fraser Institute
• [Canada] Canada Housing Market: Hosing resale activity picked up in May 2025…Are we witnessing easing effects from trade-related uncertainty on housing demand? – Scotiabank
• [Canada] Canada’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Egypt] Egypt Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Germany] Germany’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Netherlands] The Netherlands’ Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Philippines] Philippines’ Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Singapore] Singapore’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Switzerland] Switzerland Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [United Kingdom] Labor has promised 1.2m new homes in its second term. Is it possible? Experts weigh in on what Australia needs to change to get more houses, more quickly – from fixing a 2,000-page code, to backing modular builds – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Britain’s Housing Splurge Is Long Overdue. The Labour government’s plan to boost spending on affordable homes has the potential to pay for itself in wider economic benefits. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall at fastest pace in four years after stamp duty rise. Annual house price growth halves to 3.5% in April as temporary tax relief ends – FT
• [United Kingdom] Non-doms’ retreat hits London’s prime housing market. Cooling of interest from wealthy international buyers, say estate agents ends – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK Home Prices See Biggest Drop Since 2021 as Tax Hike Kicks In – Bloomberg