The Unassuming Economist

A list of papers that study the economic effects of rent control

1. Housing market spillovers: Evidence from the end of rent control in Cambridge, Massachusetts – Autor, Palmer, and Pathak (2014)
2. The effects of rent control expansion on tenants, landlords, and inequality: Evidence from San Francisco – Diamond, McQuade, and Qian (2018)
3. Robbing Peter to pay Paul? The redistribution of wealth caused by rent control – Ahern and Giacoletti (2022)
4. Rent control effects through the lens of empirical research: An almost complete review of the literature – Kholodilin (2024)

On cross-country:

• Global house prices rebound as economists predict turning point. Across the 37 industrialised OECD countries, nominal house prices grew 2.1% in the third quarter of 2023 – FT

Working papers and conferences:

• Call for papers: The Journal of Housing Economics seeks contributions to a special issue on the general subject of upzoning. – ScienceDirect
• Conference: 8th Urbanization and Poverty Reduction Research Conference on March 7-8 – World Bank
• Reexamining the ‘Role of the Community Reinvestment Act in Mortgage Supply and the U.S. Housing Boom’ – SSRN
• Land Development and Frictions to Housing Supply Over the Business Cycle – SSRN
• Volatility Connectedness and Spillover of the U.S. Median Home Sale Prices – SSRN
• The Interest Rate Sensitivity of House Prices: International Evidence on its State Dependence – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Comparing Two House-Price Booms – Cleveland Fed
• A New ‘Holy Grail’ in the Housing Crisis: Statewide Rent Caps. As housing costs soar, Washington State wants to limit annual rent increases to 7 percent. Oregon and California have passed similar measures. – New York Times
• Home Sales Rebounded in January After Last Year’s Sharp Decline. Drop in mortgage rates since October has made home purchasing slightly more affordable – Wall Street Journal
• New Home Sales at 661,000 Annual Rate in January. Median New Home Price is Down 15% from the Peak – Calculated Risk
• Mapped: The Median Down Payment for a House, by U.S. State – Visual Capitalist
• U.S. Median House Prices vs. Income – Visual Capitalist
• Do Early Birds Buy the House? 9 Cities Where the Spring Housing Rush Starts Sooner Than You Think – Realtor.com 
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 5.5% year-over-year in December. FHFA: House Prices Up 6.5% Q4 over Q4 – Calculated Risk
• US CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index Continues to Strengthen, With Annual Gain of 5.5% in December – CoreLogic
• Real U.S. House Prices UP 4% in 2023 – Real Estate Decoded
• Why US housing inflation relief may be short-lived – Reuters
• Lawler: Update on American Homes for Rent – Calculated Risk
• US Housing Supply Gap Grows in 2023; Growth Outpaces Permits in Fast-Growing Sunbelt Metros – Realtor.com
• US annual home prices rising despite fourth-quarter slowdown, FHFA says – Reuters

On the US—other developments:    

• What Texas can teach San Francisco and London about building houses. It’s not a housing crisis — it’s a planning crisis – FT
• Housing Costs Are Running Hot, but Is the Data Missing a Cooling Trend? Pandemic disruptions may have muddled the measurement of home prices in inflation data. That could complicate the Fed’s course on interest rates. – New York Times
• U.S. Commercial Foreclosures Increase in January 2024 – ATTOM
• Home buyers can sue brokerages over real estate commissions, US judge rules – Reuters
• ‘Build, baby, build!’: Governors take a walk on housing’s supply side. – Washington Post
• A housing shortage is testing Oregon’s pioneering land use law. Lawmakers are set to tweak it – AP
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January – Calculated Risk
• What Has Zoning Reform Accomplished in Cambridge, Massachusetts? – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• U.S. Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – February 2024 – Freddie Mac
• Affordable Housing: Tax Credits vs Deregulation – Cato Institute
• Aspiring homeowners say they face two major obstacles to buying. Here’s why 20% say it’ll ‘never’ happen – CNBC
• The Workforce/Middle-Income Housing Tax Credit – AEI
• Freddie Reports Surge in Multifamily Serious Delinquencies – Calculated Risk   
• The American Southwest Is Finally Starting to Embrace Vertical Living. New building codes and zoning laws are paving the way for development in the desert, which has long been an oasis of single-family homes – Wall Street Journal
• Buying a Home Near Nvidia’s Headquarters Is Nearly Impossible Right Now. Blame Santa Clara’s inventory and relative affordability—not the company’s stock run-up—for creating such a competitive market – Wall Street Journal
• FACT SHEET: Biden-⁠Harris Administration Announces New Actions to Boost Housing Supply and Lower Housing Costs – White House
• The U.S. Housing Market Gained $2 Trillion in Value Over the Last Year. The total value of U.S. homes jumped 5%, the biggest gain in nearly a year, as a shortage of houses for sale propped up values. Affordable East Coast and Midwest metros saw gains of over 10%, while pricey metros and pandemic boomtowns saw declines. – Redfin

On China:

• China Home Prices Slide, Increasing Pressure on Beijing. The country’s real estate slump has dealt a major blow to confidence – Wall Street Journal
• Shenzhen offers glimpse of China’s housing future – Reuters

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Amid Australia’s housing crisis, why are taxpayers propping up the price of empty holiday homes? The sheer number of Airbnb and Stayz short-stay rentals is a symptom of a system that’s unfair at its core – The Guardian
• [Australia] Regional housing markets outpace the capitals as rates rise – Financial Review
• [Australia] Australia home prices likely to rise 5.0% this year and next – Reuters
• [Canada] Canada’s extension of ban on foreign real estate buyers labelled political, not practical – Reuters
• [Germany] Germany home prices to slip modestly this year as supply stays tight – Reuters
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong Takes Drastic Action to Avert Property Slump. The city’s real-estate market has been hurt by high interest rates and mainland China’s economic slowdown – Wall Street Journal
• [New Zealand] Trudeau’s New Zealand May Allow Foreigners to Buy Build-to-Rent Homes. Finance Minister says government wants to boost housing supply. ‘Our overseas investment regime has been quite restrictive’ – Bloomberg
• [Philippines] Global rich keep luxury property prices rising as Manila, Dubai soar – Knight Frank – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Seniors Sit on the Answer to the UK Housing Shortage. If more over-65s step off the housing ladder, more young people can step on. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK builders and government need to fix housing shortage, regulator says – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Britain’s interwar apartment boom. A decade of Art Deco densification – The Works in Progress
• [United Kingdom] Spending on UK social housing will ‘save taxpayers money’ in long term, study finds. Upfront cost of building 90,000 new homes would be returned within 11 years, say Shelter and NHF – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK Mortgage Approvals Hit 15-Month High as Borrowing Jumps. Bank of England data suggest housing market gaining momentum. Mortgage interest rates have been creeping higher again – Bloomberg

Links to the week’s top housing market stories.

On US

• Housing’s Recession Already Happened – WSJ
• Housing market recession? Not likely. Prepare for hot post-pandemic prices – USA Today
• These Are the 10 Most Overpriced Housing Markets in the U.S. — 5 Are in Florida – Yahoo Finance

On rest of the world

• Global Migration Boom Keeps Housing Costs High – WSJ
• Popping Real Estate Bubbles Will Prove Painful – Bloomberg
• [Australia] House prices will keep rising into next year, says Domain, as immigration boosts demand – The Guardian
• [Australia] Australian house prices set to rise again, despite interest rate pain – AW
• [Australia] Sydney house prices to boom again – MACROBUSINESS
• [Canada] Luxury real estate markets in Canada saw divergent performance in the first half of 2023 – CTV News
• [Canada] Posthaste: The luxury housing market in Canada has undergone a major change – Financial Post
• [UK] UK housing market forecast to avoid slump despite zero growth in prices – The Guardian
• [UK] House prices predicted to fall 12pc with ‘little prospect’ of bounceback – Telegraph
• [UK] Banks, Housing, Markets, and UK CPI – Bloomberg
• [Euro] European home prices fall but don’t bet on a crash – DW
• [Sweden] Sweden Home Starts Indicator Hits 9-Year Low After Price Slump – Bloomberg
• [Germany] New housing construction set to strongly decline – DW
• [Danish] Danish Housing Market Better Than Feared, Mortgage Giant Says – Bloomberg

On cross-country:

• Global house prices set to extend declines, risk of more with higher rates: Reuters poll – Reuters

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Three Million U.S. Households Making Over $150,000 Are Still Renting. High cost of homeownership and limited supply of homes for sale drive renters – Wall Street Journal
• House Prices and Rents in the 21st Century – NBER 
• Rent control policies are gaining support nationwide. Here’s why economists still think it’s a bad idea. – CNBC
• A Short History of Long-Term Mortgages. Americans take today’s selection of mortgages for granted, but financing a home is a much different experience than it was a century ago – Richmond Fed
• Mortgage Payments Hit Record High. The typical homebuyer’s monthly bill rose to $2,563 this week thanks to higher borrowing costs and prices that remain elevated. – Bloomberg
• Permits Decline At The Start of 2023 – NAHB
• Single-Family Starts Remain Lackluster but Will Rebound Later This Year – NAHB  
• February Housing Starts: Average Length of Time from Start to Completion increased Sharply in 2022. Near Record Number of Housing Units Under Construction in February 2023 – Calculated Risk

On the US—other developments:    

• President Biden’s Budget Lowers Housing Costs and Expands Access to Affordable Rent and Home Ownership – White House
• Zillow’s panel of experts: Fix zoning to improve housing affordability – Zillow
• Why There Are No Houses to Buy in Many U.S. Metro Areas – Time
• ‘Stalemate’: Sellers aren’t selling, and buyers aren’t buying. Rising interest rates are locking up Boston’s housing market. Nearly everyone who currently holds a 30-year fixed rate mortgage has an interest lower than they could get today. So why sell? – Boston.com
• Forum on the future of the Federal Home Loan Bank system: Highlights from the Brookings and BU Law event – Brookings
• Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part 2 – Calculated Risk
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February. Early reports suggest NAR reported sales will rebound in February – Calculated Risk
• 10 States With The Most Valuable Housing Markets. California remains the clear leader, and Florida surpassed New York as the state with the second most valuable real estate market in the country. – Zillow
• What Employers Can Do to Address High Housing Costs – Harvard Business Review
• Despite Multiple States Abolishing Single-Family-Only Zoning, Very Few Duplexes and Triplexes Are Being Built. A new report illustrates that the middle of the housing market is still missing. – Reason 
• Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March. Purchasing Same House, Monthly Payments Up 44% Year-over-year – Calculated Risk

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Canada’s housing market continues to lose steam – Global Property Guide
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s house prices plummeting – Global Property Guide
• [Netherlands] ‘How will I buy?’: housing crisis grips the Netherlands as Dutch go to polls. Housing is key in this week’s provincial elections after years of soaring prices and government neglect – The Guardian
• [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices fall in February as economic headwinds continue – Reuters
• [Sweden] Sweden faces recession as housing market troubles take toll on economy – Reuters
• [United Arab Emirates] Dubai Housing Boom Shows No Sign of Slowing as Prices Jump Again. Average Dubai villa rents jump 26% in the year to February. The number of off-plan property sales are also increasing – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Is the UK housing market cooling? Agents and analysts agree that there is a shift after two years of superheated growth – FT

Global property’s goody-two-shoes are in trouble

“A housing crash sent the global economy into recession between 2007 and 2009. But three countries—Australia, Canada and Sweden—cruised through the commotion. Even as property prices plummeted elsewhere, all three recorded double-digit growth.” read more here.