The Unassuming Economist

Working papers and conferences:

• Heterogeneous Real Estate Agents and the Housing Cycle – NBER
• Hot temperatures: A new player in housing markets – CEPR
• The Impact of Institutional Investors on Homeownership and Neighborhood Access – SSRN
• Urban Renewal and Inequality: Evidence from Chicago’s Public Housing Demolitions – SSRN
• Covid-19 and Preferences for Subway Proximity: Evidence from the Chinese Housing Market – SSRN
• Effect of Housing Ownership on Young People’s Decisions to Enter into the Union of Marriage – SSRN
• Upzoning with Strings Attached: Evidence from Seattle’s Affordable Housing Mandate – SSRN  

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• US Housing Starts Drop to Lowest Since 2020 While Permits Rise. Multifamily starts plunged to lowest since onset of pandemic. Single-family permits accelerated to fastest pace since 2022 – Bloomberg
• Housing Starts Fall in August, Led by Declining Multi-Family Activity – Realtor.com
• Why America’s housing crisis has hit a new inflection point – Axios
• High Mortgage Rates Continue to Weaken Builder Confidence – NAHB   
• August Housing Starts: Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction. Housing Starts Decreased to 1.283 million Annual Rate in August – Calculated Risk
• Can Zillow’s Low Down Payment Program Help Thaw the Housing Market? Wharton’s Benjamin Keys weighs in on Zillow’s new 1% down payment loan, saying the fintech firm is trying to innovate in a housing market that just isn’t moving. – Wharton
• Rentals won’t save the housing market – FT
• US housing feels the squeeze from high mortgage rates. A tripling of US mortgage rates constrained both the demand and supply of housing, leaving existing home sales at post-GFC lows. Mortgage rates will rise further in the wake of the market’s reaction to yesterday’s Fed forecasts, further constraining activity – ING

On the US—other developments:    

• America’s Missing Empty Homes. Housing Vacancy Rates are at Historic Lows—Signaling an Extremely Supply-Constrained Market – Apricitas Economics
• America’s Biggest Landlords Can’t Find Houses to Buy Either. Higher rates and few properties for sale have slowed Wall Street’s home buying – Wall Street Journal
• Repeat after me: building any new homes reduces housing costs for all. Building unsubsidised housing pushes down rents and prices while freeing up cheaper properties – FT
• Housing Market Update: Monthly Housing Costs Hit All-Time High, Deterring Would-Be Buyers – Redfin
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September – Calculated Risk
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in August. Local Markets Suggest August Sales Close to the July Sales Rate – Calculated Risk
• 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in August. California Home Sales Down 18.9% YoY in August – Calculated Risk
• This racist US housing policy that tried to fix poverty is a massive failure. Moving low-income, Black people into ‘better’ neighborhoods splits up communities and does not solve poverty – The Guardian
• Flawed US Home-Loan System Neglects the Buyers Who Need It Most. Federal Home Loan Banks have a stated mission of supporting affordable housing. But community lenders have a tougher time getting access to funds. – Bloomberg
• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August and Some New Household/Housing Stock Data – Calculated Risk
• Where 20 years of new housing was built in Washington, DC—and where it wasn’t – Brookings
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.04 million SAAR in August. Median Prices Increased 3.9% YoY in August – Calculated Risk

On China:

• An Even Bigger Housing Crisis Threatens China’s Economy. Two years after Evergrande’s fall, distressed property giant Country Garden could create bigger problems – Wall Street Journal
• China’s property revival plan threatened by stand-off over old neighbourhoods. Beijing turns to past playbook of redeveloping poorer areas in hopes of revitalising troubled sector – FT
• China’s property price caps have two sharp edges – Reuters
• The climate upside of China’s real estate downturn – Reuters
• China economy best revived by easing of property restrictions. Reversal of measures that have progressively stifled the homes market has removed the need for a major stimulus package – South China Morning Post

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Experts debunk myth that Chinese buyers drive up Australian property prices – The Straits Times
• [Australia] Housing’s ‘Vicious Spiral’ Drags Australia Into Deepening Crisis. The supply of rental homes is shrinking fast and there’s little sign of relief on the horizon. – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Economists Aren’t Buying Australia’s Ambitious Housing Plans – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Housing Investors Are Getting Flushed Out as Canada’s Rates Rise. As small-time landlords are squeezed, so are renters. It could all signal a fundamental realignment of the country’s housing landscape. – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Trudeau Cuts Tax on Rental Builds, Pushes Grocers on Pricing. Canada’s prime minister is under fire for soaring costs. Suite of affordability measures unveiled ahead of fall session – Bloomberg
• [Denmark] Why Denmark’s Housing Market Works Better than Ours. Danish borrowers can buy back their loans at market prices – Aziz Sunderji
• [India] India’s property market is ready for take-off. A clean-up by Narendra Modi’s government shows signs of success – The Economist
• [Ireland] Dublin house prices fall at sharpest rate in three years. Irish price inflation slows to 1.5% as mortgage costs take the heat out of property market – The Irish Times
• [South Korea] South Korea’s Central Bank Warns of Overpriced Housing Market, Excessive Debt – Bloomberg
• [South Korea] South Korea house prices climb for second month in August – Reuters
• [Switzerland] Google Recruiting Propels Zurich Home Prices Past London, Paris. Tax breaks and low interest rates have made the Swiss financial hub one of Europe’s hottest housing markets. – Bloomberg
• [Turkey] Where House Prices Almost Doubled in a Year – Wall Street Journal
• [United Kingdom] RICS Survey Shows UK Housing Slump Worsens – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Creep Up On-Month But Below the Usual Annual Trend – Wall Street Journal
• [United Kingdom] UK Rents Surge at Record Pace as Home Sellers Lift Asking Prices. Rightmove report shows property asking prices tick higher. Figures show inflationary forces prompting BOE to raise rates – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK homes: data shows supply squeeze will worsen. England’s planning drought for housing projects merely stores up problems – FT

On cross-country:

• A Tale of Two Housing Markets. Why are the UK and US housing markets going in opposite directions? – FT

Working Papers and Conferences

• 12th Annual Housing Conference on October 31 and November 1 – AEI
• The Intergenerational Transmission of Housing Wealth – NBER
• Price Discrimination and Mortgage Choice – NBER 
• Urban Renewal and Inequality: Evidence from Chicago’s Public Housing Demolitions – Philadelphia Fed
• Racial and Gender Discrimination in the Housing Market: A Review – SSRN
• Housing Assistance Policy for Mortgage Borrowers: Liquidity Improvements or Price Acceleration? – SSRN
• Dust Storms and Housing Market – SSRN
• A Global Housing Affordability Upheaval after Covid-19 – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• US Mortgage Rates Ease From Highs, Falling for Second Week. Average for a 30-year loan has been above 7% for four weeks. Tight inventory in housing market has kept prices elevated – Bloomberg
• Should you fix your mortgage for ever? You can ignore rising rates, but you pay an arm and a leg – The Economist
• The Fall in Home Prices May Already Be Over. Quick recovery in prices suggests housing downturn could be shorter, shallower than expected – Wall Street Journal 
• ‘Blame the Boomers’ for Surging House Prices, Barclays Says. Forget the lock-in effect, it’s all about household formation. – Bloomberg
• Housing will keep the Fed honest. Expensive mortgages have not stopped a home price rebound – FT

On the US—other developments:    

• Rising Insurance Rates Are Crushing Affordable Housing Developers. Natural disasters and crime are being blamed for property insurance hikes that are frustrating builders of much-needed new apartment buildings. – Bloomberg
• Redfin Survey: 1 in 5 Millennial Respondents Believe They’ll Never Own a Home – Redfin
• One Explanation for Booming US Growth. Weak home construction was hurting the economy last year—not anymore – Aziz Sunderji
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in August. Early Reporting Markets suggest Sales in August close to July SAAR – Calculated Risk
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in August. Early Reporting Markets suggest Sales in August close to or below July SAAR – Calculated Risk
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September – Calculated Risk
• Issue 12: Houston, we have a solution. Plus: How Mexico built its state, the causes of the Baby Boom, and the 141-year quest for a malaria vaccine. – Work in Progress
• Amazon and other companies invested in affordable housing. Did it work? – The Guardian
• The Student-Debt Bubble Fueled a Housing Bubble. Fannie and Freddie ignore much of what borrowers owe, allowing them to qualify for huge mortgages – Wall Street Journal
• A Hidden Reason Cities Fall Apart – New York Times
• How the federal government can encourage innovative housing policies that improve supply and affordability – Brookings
• When the Homeowners Association Comes for Your Home. A spate of foreclosures filed by HOAs in Denver illustrate the potential risks of a increasingly common homeownership model. – Bloomberg

On China:

• Beijing Throws China’s Housing Market a Bone. Policy paralysis of the past half year has given way to stronger signals that Beijing wants to support the market – Wall Street Journal
• How Country Garden Plays Into China’s Property Mess – Bloomberg
• China’s major banks to lower rates on existing first-home mortgages – Reuters
• China’s Housing Measures Fall Short of Stimulating Steel Demand. Mysteel says home-buying focus will take time to affect market. Steelmakers cut production in late August to seven-month low – Bloomberg
• Iron Ore Declines as Data Shows China Property Concerns Persist. Prices fall for first day in three as home sales lose momentum. Fate of steel-making material depends on property sector: CBA – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Australia Seals $6.4 Billion Housing Program to Tackle Crisis. Signature policy will pass Senate with Greens Party support. Deal will create investment fund to build 30,000 new homes – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Australia’s property price surge stems from domestic issues, not Chinese buyers. The market impact of foreign buyers has been exaggerated. Pointing the finger at foreigners is a distraction from the main problem bedevilling Australia’s housing market – a severe shortage exacerbated by the lack of needed planning reform – South China Morning Post
• [Australia] House prices just keep rising – everyone but the Australian government can see it’s a good investment. Taking an equity stake in a sector that so far has weathered three of most turbulent years makes financial sense and would improve housing affordability – The Guardian
• [Australia] Distressed listings on the rise – Financial Review
• [Canada] Canada’s government, pressured over housing shortage, tells cities to do more – Reuters
• [Canada] Canada plans incentives to ease housing burden, CBC reports – Reuters
• [Canada] Canada’s mortgage stress test is ‘imperfect’, review ongoing, regulator head says – Reuters
• [United Arab Emirates] Dubai Apartment Prices Jump Most in a Decade as Home Boom Widens. Dubai apartment prices surged 20% in the year to August: CBRE. Values for apartments had lagged larger, single-family houses – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK Rents to Rise 25% by 2026 as Landlords Pass On Mortgage Costs. BOE hikes affecting rents more than home values, Hamptons says. Housing market is under pressure from spike in mortgage prices – Bloomberg

On cross-country:

• The growing global movement to restrain house prices. From America to New Zealand YIMBYs push market-led solutions – The Economist
• Only five cities worldwide are more unaffordable than Sydney for housing, thinktank says. Committee for Sydney urges residents to ‘become a yimby’ after finding housing crisis costs economy more than $10bn per year – The Guardian
• To fix broken mortgage markets, look to Denmark. Rising interest rates have exposed the problems with many home loans – The Economist
• Global house price downturn fades, most markets to rise in 2024: Reuters poll – Reuters
• A new blow for Generation Rent. The young and lower-paid are being priced out of housing lets as well as purchases – FT

Working Papers and Conferences

• COVID and cities, thus far – VoxEU
• Housing Adequacy in Delhi, Dhaka and Karachi: Lessons for Promoting Sustainable and Inclusive Housing in Developing Countries – SSRN
• Ethnicity in Housing Markets: Buyers, Sellers and Agents – SSRN
• Returns to Homeownership and Inequality: Evidence from the First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit – SSRN
• Forecasting Housing Prices with Network Information – SSRN  
• Can Measurement Error Explain Slow Productivity Growth in Construction? – SSRN  
• Housing Market Responses to the Mortgage Interest Deduction – SSRN  
• Effect of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks on Housing Prices in Canada – SSRN  
• Post-Foreclosure Trajectories in the American Rental Market: Focus on the Trade-Offs between Neighborhood and Housing Outcomes – SSRN  
• The impact of upzoning on housing construction in Auckland – SSRN  

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Rising Rents Are Hitting American Suburbs Hardest. Suburban rent growth exceeds its urban counterpart in 28 of 33 metro areas, a new study finds – Wall Street Journal
• Asking Rents Down 1.2% Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• How Biden’s goal to boost Black homeownership could be undone by a new mortgage rule. `These requirements would have the impact of exacerbating the already too-high homeownership gap,’ said Marc Morial, head of the National Urban League. – Politico

On the US—other developments:    

• Workplace Flexibility May Help Address Affordability Concerns – Fannie Mae
• Living with a crisis of affordable housing – Johns Hopkins University

On China:

• China stirs hope in property market with latest stimulus plan. Beijing seeks to rekindle growth in economically crucial sector but investors remain cautious – FT
• Debt Crisis Threatens to Engulf China’s Surviving Developers. About two-thirds of 50 major private builders are defaulters. The 16 survivors face $1.5 billion bond payments this month – Bloomberg
• China Cuts Down Payment, Mortgage Rates in Stimulus Drive. National down payment for first time home purchases cut to 20%. Cities can decide their own rate according to market condition – Bloomberg
• China boosts housing market and renminbi support. Cheaper mortgages offered in biggest cities while central bank eases foreign exchange reserve requirements – FT
• Beijing Eases Mortgage Rules for More Buyers to Spur Sales. Shanghai also expanded definition of first-time buyers. Central government has given leeway to local officials – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Australia Property Prices Accelerate as Supply Shortfall Bites. Swelling population is absorbing housing that comes to market. That’s despite 12 interest-rate hikes from RBA to cool demand – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Australian Homes Are Least Affordable in 30 Years After Hikes. Households on median income could afford to buy 13% of homes. RBA hiked interest rates aggressively to try to cool inflation – Bloomberg
• [Canada] The Housing Crisis Isn’t Going Anywhere Until We Tackle Property Wealth Inequality. The housing crisis will never end without levying forceful taxes against real estate speculators and investors. A recent report outlines the necessary actions to impose taxes that can actually narrow the wealth gap and alleviate the housing emergency. – Jacobin
• [Canada] Canada to change how it counts foreign students, workers amid housing crunch – Reuters
• [India] India house prices on track for steady rises, affordability to worsen: Reuters poll – Reuters
• [New Zealand] New Zealand House Prices Post Smallest Decline This Year – Bloomberg
• [Portugal] Portugal Home Prices Defy Rate Hikes on Strong Foreign Demand. Real estate developer says about 65% of buyers are foreigners. High property prices caused by foreign demand, housing crunch – Bloomberg
• [Sweden] Swedish Housing Prices Rise for Third Month, Defying Rate Rise – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Fall the Most in 14 Years, Nationwide Says. First figures for August signal the downturn is intensifying. Sharp increase in mortgage costs is weighing on buyers – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] London’s bidding war escalates as rising rates hit buy-to-let. Tenants in the UK capital face surging rents and eviction as landlords pass on pressure from higher borrowing costs – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK Housing Downturn Moves Into New Phase With Prices Falling Even Faster. Property market under pressure from spiraling mortgage costs. Home deals, demand, mortgage approvals all dropped this summer. – Bloomberg

On cross-country:

• 20 Countries where Housing Prices are Declining or Flat – Yahoo Finance
• Extreme renting: Estonia start-up boom fuels EU’s biggest cost rises. High levels of home ownership in the Baltic nation mean rents are volatile to market changes and fuelled by expat workers – FT

Working Papers and Conferences

• The External Costs of Industrial Chemical Accidents: A Nationwide Property Value Study – Journal of Housing Economics
• Moving to the country: Understanding the effects of Covid-19 on property values and farmland development risk – Journal of Housing Economics
• Flood insurance reforms, housing market dynamics, and adaptation to climate risks – Journal of Housing Economics
• Unequal treatment in the rental housing markets of four Chinese megacities – Journal of Housing Economics
• When do property taxes matter? Tax salience and heterogeneous policy effects – Journal of Housing Economics
• Does homeownership hinder labor market activity? Evidence from housing privatization and restitution – Journal of Housing Economics
• The Airbnb rent premium and the crowding-out of long-term rentals – Journal of Housing Economics
• Revisiting metropolitan house price-income relationship – Journal of Housing Economics
• The short- and long-run effects of remote work on U.S. housing markets – Journal of Financial Economics
• Balancing the Scales: How Housing Supply Regulation Shapes Household Wealth Inequality in China – SSRN
• Housing Regulation and Bubbles – SSRN
• Race, Space, and Take Up: Explaining Housing Voucher Lease-Up Rates – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• How can American house prices still be rising? Mortgage payments are at their highest since the mid-1980s – The Economist
• America Has a Mortgage Problem – New York Times
• Zillow to offer a 1% down payment loan program – CNN
• Mortgage Rates at 7% Are Making Everything Worse for US Homebuyers. With supply tight and prices rising, deals are frozen with little relief in sight. – Bloomberg
• Why Are Mortgage Rates So High, and How Long Will They Stay Up? Economists say loan rates are affected by a complicated combination of factors, but there are tactics consumers can use to land a lower rate. – New York Times
• Fannie Mae Single-Family Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Lowest since 2002 – Calculated Risk
• U.S. Home Prices Held Steady in June. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index was unchanged year-over-year in June – Wall Street Journal
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Unchanged year-over-year in June. “FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for June was up 0.3 percent from May.” – Calculated Risk
• US home prices show signs of stabilizing, reports show – Reuters
• Short U.S. housing correction likely over; tight supply to keep prices high: Reuters poll – Reuters

On the US—other developments:    

• The Next Big Housing Markets: Where To Invest in 2024 – Yahoo Finance 
• Small Multifamily Homes Were Disappearing. Now States Are Scrambling to Revive Them. Construction of low-density housing like duplexes hovers near record lows, as states pass zoning reform to tackle the affordable housing crisis. – Bloomberg
• The Hottest Zip Codes of 2023 – Realtor.com
• Just How Unaffordable Is the US Housing Market? Americans have been stretching their finances to buy homes since the 1970s, and this time is no different. – Bloomberg   

On China:

• How Evergrande’s downfall signaled China’s property crisis – Reuters
• Chinese banks to cut existing mortgage rates as property crisis deepens – Reuters
• China Eases Home Purchase Rules in New Push to Boost Economy. Beijing proposes that local governments scrap a mortgage rule. More people to be recognized as first-time buyers as a result – Bloomberg
• China approves guidelines to boost affordable housing amid property debt crisis – Reuters
• Paid Late, or Never: Painters, Builders and Realtors Hit by China’s Property Crisis. As a real estate meltdown ripples through the economy, small businesses and workers are owed hundreds of billions of dollars, and new projects have dried up. – New York Times
• China Banks to Cut Rates on Mortgages, Deposits in Stimulus Push. China’s state banks are being enlisted to support economy. Beijing is struggling to boost economy, investor confidence – Bloomberg
• Country Garden asks for more time to repay renminbi bond. Proposal for grace period is further sign of financial strain on China’s property sector – FT

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Think curbing overseas migration will end the housing crisis? It won’t – and we can’t afford to do it – The Conversation
• [Canada] Little relief for indebted Canadian homeowners as mortgage rates seen higher for longer – Reuters
• [Canada] Canada considers foreign student cap over housing crisis – BBC
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong home prices drop for third month in July, down 1.1% – Reuters
• [Germany] Germany’s ruling party plans to curb rent increases. SPD set to unveil measures to tackle soaring costs facing tenants, says senior lawmaker – FT
• [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices to rise again on supply shortage, rate cut hopes: Reuters poll – Reuters
• [Sweden] Sweden Housing Starts Nosedive in Sign of Worse Shortage to Come – Bloomberg