The Unassuming Economist

On cross-country:

• Chinese property developers shrivel up in Australia, New Zealand but are they ‘hibernating’ for better times? Many Chinese developers in Australia and New Zealand have closed or scaled back, amid a property crisis in China, weak demand and higher construction costs. Chinese property development in Australasia soared around 2013 at the height of China’s ‘go out policy’ that prompted Chinese firms and citizens to seek overseas investments – South China Morning Post

Working papers and conferences:

• Racial and ethnic differences in the financial returns to home purchases – Real Estate Economics
• Gender, Stress, and Job Performance: Agents in the Resale Housing Market – SSRN
• Investors in Housing Markets: Comparing Two Booms – SSRN
• Report on the Potential Impacts of Property Tax Abatement on Rental Housing Construction in Boston – SSRN
• The Impact of COVID-19 on Real Estate Markets in Germany – SSRN
• Mortgages, House Prices, and Business Cycle Dynamic: A Medium-Run Exploration Using the Continuous Wavelet Transform – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• US home prices forecast to climb as mortgage rates fall to 6.3% in 2024 – Goldman Sachs
• 2023 was slowest year for US home sales in nearly 30 years as high mortgage rates frustrated buyers – Quartz
• Mortgage Rates Expected to Dip Below 6 Percent in 2024, Boosting Home Sales – Fannie Mae
• December Existing Home Sales: Higher Mortgage Rates Pulled Supply And Sales Lower in 2023. Existing home sales dropped again in December, ending the year at 4.09 million, the lowest level in nearly 30 years – Zillow
• Is This Really ‘the Worst Time to Buy a Home’? Maybe — but it’s not a terrible time to rent. – New York Times
• Redfin Reports Pending Home Sales Rose 4% in December—Biggest Jump in Over Two Years – Redfin
• For Property Investors, the Price of Homes Is Still Not Right. Higher interest rates, record home prices are cited for pullback in buying – Wall Street Journal
• Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – Freddie Mac
• 1.54 million Total Housing Completions in 2023 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2007
• Completions Will Likely Increase Further in 2024 – Calculated Risk
• Finally, America’s Home Inventory Is Rising: Here’s Where It’s Grown the Most – Realtor.com
• Redfin Home Price Index: Prices Rose 0.4% in December—the Smallest Increase in Six Months – Redfin

On the US—other developments:    

• America’s Housing Rebound. Despite years of the highest real mortgage interest rates in almost two decades, construction and renovation spending have been holding steady, if not accelerating outright. – The Overshoot
• The Economy Is Starting to Look Normal—Housing Isn’t. Cooling inflation, a moderating job market and steady growth are making the economy look more familiar. But housing is a complete mess. – Wall Street Journal
• 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December; California Home Sales Down 7.1% YoY in December – Calculated Risk
• Boomers won’t part with their homes, and that’s a problem for young families – CNN 
• More than 43 million US households were cost burdened in 2022 – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Biden’s New Gift to the Housing Lobby. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac raise their loan-guarantee limits to new heights. – Wall Street Journal
• Record Number of Office-to-Apartment Conversions Planned in 2024. Washington, New York and Dallas lead the trend among US cities. Housing demand, office vacancies drive conversions: RentCafe – Bloomberg
• Home Price-to-Income Ratio Reaches Record High – Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Affordable Housing Gets Boost in Congressional Tax Reform Proposal. The bipartisan tax deal would raise allocations for the Low Income Housing Tax Credit, a critical tool for encouraging new home construction. – Bloomberg
• To meet today’s critical housing challenges, HUD needs a broader, bolder vision – Brookings
• Builders’ Top Challenges for 2024 – NAHB
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December – Calculated Risk 

On China:

• Desperate Chinese Property Developers Resort to Bizarre Marketing Tactics. The country’s real-estate slump is getting worse—and looks set to drag on for years – Wall Street Journal

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Australian houses are less affordable than they have been in decades. In spite of rising borrowing costs, prices have stayed stubbornly resilient – The Economist
• [Brazil] How to Buy Property in Brazil as a Foreigner – Global Property Guide
• [Canada] Home price declines in big cities drag down Teranet-National Bank index – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Canada Caps Foreign Student Visas Amid Housing Shortage. Immigration Minister Marc Miller unveils new limits on permits. Number of foreign students tripled to 1 million over 10 years – Bloomberg
• [Egypt] How to Buy Property in Egypt as a Foreigner – Global Property Guide
• [Egypt] Gross rental yields in Egypt: Cairo and Alexandria – Global Property Guide
• [Ireland] Irish house prices close to or at peak, estate agents say. An SCSI report predicts house prices will rise by just 1 per cent this year – The Irish Times
• [Netherlands] The Netherlands’ housing market downturn continues – Global Property Guide
• [New Zealand] RBNZ Proposes Looser Low-Deposit Home Loan Rules With New Tool – Bloomberg
• [Spain] How to Buy Property in Spain as a Foreigner – Global Property Guide
• [Spain] Deteriorating affordability will dampen Spanish house price growth –ING
• [Turkey] Turkey’s strong house price growth is just an illusion – Global Property Guide 
• [United Kingdom] Global investors could spark UK housebuilding boom. Institutional backers attracted by high rental demand and low volatility of residential property market – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK Home Sellers Made £100,000 Profit Per Deal Even In Tough Year. Average seller made about 9% less profit than in 2022. Declining mortgage rates could help turn the tide this year – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Ministers’ 99% mortgage idea could overheat UK housing market, say experts. Scheme to support first-time buyers that would appeal to young voters reportedly being considered by No 10 – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Housing ombudsman in England calls to re-establish link between housing and health – The Guardian

On cross-country:

• The housing crisis is still being underplayed. Young adults are being robbed of the milestones that marked the lives of previous generations – FT

Working papers and conferences:

• Why Has Construction Productivity Stagnated? The Role of Land-Use Regulation – SSRN
• The economic effects of real estate investors – Real Estate Economics
• Monetary policy and housing market cycles – Macroeconomic Dynamics
• Regional House Price Cohesion in the UK: Recent Trends and Covid – SSRN
• Roof or Real Estate? An Agent-Based Model Of Housing Affordability in the Netherlands – SSRN
• Housing Costs, College Enrollment, and Student Mobility – SSRN
• Discrimination in the Austrian Rental Housing Market: The Effect of Information Concerning First and Second Generation Immigrant Status – SSRN
• Housing Unaffordability in Italy: Recognising the Housing Problem Dispelling Myths – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• U.S. 30-year mortgage predominance doesn’t seem to delay impact of Fed rate hikes – Dallas Fed
• Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP – Calculated Risk
• Inside a Plan to Save Homeowners Hundreds of Dollars Closing Their Mortgages. Little-known alternative to title insurance gains support from Fannie Mae – Wall Street Journal
• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December. The Lowest Annual Sales Rates since 1995 – Calculated Risk
• Hoping To Buy a Home in 2024? Here’s Where Prices Have Been Rising—and Falling—the Most – Realtor.com
• Single Family Starts Up Year-over-year in December; Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction – Calculated Risk

On the US—other developments:    

• Housing reform should actually add housing. Affordable-only upzonings are a big political struggle for minimal gain – Slow Boring
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024 – Calculated Risk
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December. It appears annual sales for 2023 will be at the lowest level since 1995 – Calculated Risk
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December. Annual sales for 2023 will be at the lowest level since 1995 – Calculated Risk
• To Ease Housing Crunch, Theme Parks Are Becoming Homebuilders. Orlando, Florida, is on the front line of an industry trend as major employers like Universal and Disney look to close the area’s workforce housing gap. – Bloomberg
• Housing Vouchers Won’t Solve America’s Homelessness Crisis – Jacobin
• Not Even Molten Lava Can Cool This Hot Housing Market. The eastern section of Hawaii’s Big Island continues to attract home buyers searching for a cheap piece of paradise – Wall Street Journal

On China:

• China Housing Slump to Continue Into 2025, Says Ex-PBOC Official. Home sales will fall further this year and next, Sheng says. Green shoots emerged in November and December, he adds – Bloomberg
• China’s Property Market May Keep Struggling Despite Stimulus. Property prices have extended their decline in the wake of property stimulus measures – Wall Street Journal

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Neither a pandemic nor interest rate rises: can anything dent the Australian housing market? The entire political focus over the past 40 years has been to keep house prices from falling, or even abating – The Guardian
• [Canada] Canada, facing housing shortage, to consider cap on international students – Reuters
• [Canada] Canadian home sales jumped 9% in December, but prices continued to fall – The Globe and Mail
• [Ireland] ‘The Social Contract Has Been Completely Ruptured’: Ireland’s Housing Crisis. Soaring rents have left many struggling to afford homes in Dublin and have created a generational divide. Two-thirds of younger adults in the city live with their parents. – New York Times
• [New Zealand] New Zealand House Prices Rise for Third Month, CoreLogic Says. Property value gains in 2024 may undershoot expectations. Outlook hinges on whether mortgage interest rates move lower – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] New Zealand Houses Are Selling Faster as Buyers Return to the Market. Median time to sell in December was lowest since March 2022. House prices post first annual gain in 18 months, REINZ says – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices unchanged, activity improving -REINZ – Reuters
• [United Arab Emirates] Dubai Sales of $25 Million Homes Double as Global Elite Move In. Wealthy buyers spent $2.27 billion on luxury homes last year. Most expensive transaction was for a $136 million apartment – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Why is it still so hard to build new homes in England? Politicians agree that shaking up the planning system is vital to the British economy, but Nimby-ism is stubbornly resilient – FT
• [United Kingdom] Britain’s Biggest Mortgage Lender Is Watching for the Return of Global Inflation Pressures – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall at fastest pace in more than a decade. ONS data shows biggest drop in London and reflects impact of high interest rates on property market – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK Housing Market Enters 2024 With Momentum Building, Agents Say. RICS survey finds sales picking up, pressure on prices easing. Buyer demand being boosted by decline in mortgage costs – Bloomberg

On cross-country:

• Housing Affordability Remains Stretched Amid Higher Interest Rate Environment. Prospective home buyers face high prices and elevated borrowing costs, while homeowners refrain from listing their properties – IMF
• House prices and rents increased between Q2 and Q3 2023 – Eurostat
• Letter: Why housing is such a tricky emissions reduction target – FT
• Europe’s property boom lowered inequality, ECB says – Reuters

Working papers and conferences:

• Haste or Waste? The Role of Presale in Residential Housing – NBER
• Refinancing Frictions, Mortgage Pricing and Redistribution – NBER
• Energy Hogs and Energy Angels: What Does Residential Electricity Usage Really Tell Us About Profligate Consumption? – NBER
• Neighborhood Effects of Buy-to-Rent and Build-To Rent Public Housing – SSRN
• Does Homeownership Preserve Wealth for Low- Income and Minority Senior Households? – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Why Buffalo will be 2024’s Hottest Market. Zillow’s annual predictions for the hottest housing markets of the year. Factors include expected home value growth, projected change in owner-occupied households and job growth compared to new construction. – Zillow
• Moody’s: Apartment Vacancy Rate increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate in “Uncharted Territory” at Record High. Apartment Net Absorption “Plummeted” in Q4 – Calculated Risk
• US Home Price Insights – January 2024 – CoreLogic
• Why This Is a Good Year to Be a Renter, in Three Charts. Renters have more options and negotiating power than a year ago – Wall Street Journal
• US home prices jump another 5% on tumbling mortgage rates and tight supply – Business Insider

On the US—other developments:    

• Buying Home and Auto Insurance Used to Be Routine. It’s Becoming a Nightmare. Huge losses from national disasters prompt industry to jack up prices and pull back from some markets; ‘worst possible scenario’ for consumers – Wall Street Journal
• US homebuyer confidence up in December; more see loan rates falling – Reuters
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December. Early Reports Suggest Sales in December were Down Slightly Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024 – Calculated Risk

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Canada Offers Cities Money to Spur Home Building. Effort to reshape municipal zoning comes amid citizen anger over low housing inventory, elevated rents – Wall Street Journal
• [Canada] Canadians Give Trudeau Low Marks for Housing Affordability in Poll. Ontario, West are more negative than Quebec, Atlantic region. Government has tried to accelerate building through incentives – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Canadian seniors are selling their homes later in life. What will this mean for the housing market? – Canada Mortgage Trends
• [Denmark] Denmark’s housing market conditions worsening – Global Property Guide
• [France] France’s housing market momentum stalls – Global Property Guide
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s housing market remains depressed – Global Property Guide
• [New Zealand] New Zealand Home-Building Costs Rise at Slowest Pace Since 2016 – Bloomberg
• [Singapore] Singapore’s house prices still increasing, despite falling demand – Global Property Guide
• [South Korea] South Korea president vows to ease regulations to boost home supplies – Reuters
• [Thailand] Thailand’s house prices rising modestly, buoyed by recovering demand – Global Property Guide
• [United Kingdom] What Does 2024 Hold for UK House Prices? Given where mortgage rates are heading, a tepid recovery looks to be on the cards. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Britain’s housing market may be ‘past peak pain’ but what will 2024 bring? Second year of falling prices expected though recovery is likely in the second half as interest rates come down – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise for third consecutive month, Halifax data shows. Supply shortage pushes property valuations to highest level since last March – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Defy Gloom With Gain in 2023, Halifax Says. Prices have stagnated in 2023 instead of plunging 10%. Outlook for a more modest decline this year or even gains – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Spending on affordable housing in England to be slashed in 2024. Planned investment by housing associations drops due to budget pressures – FT
• [United Kingdom] The reasons for the housing crisis go beyond the green belt. Readers respond to the building design tsar’s comments on housebuilding – The Guardian
•  [United Kingdom] UK Housing Market Gloom Is Overdone — Again. Britain’s home values will prove resilient this year. – Bloomberg

Working papers and conferences:

• Housing Speculation, GSEs, and Credit Market Spillovers – Philadelphia Fed
• What Do We Learn from Mobile Phone Location Data about Mobility and Housing During Covid-19 – SSRN
• Identifying the Effects of Financial and Housing Shocks on Economic Activity: A Medium-Run SVAR Perspective – SSRN
• Employment Fluctuations, Real Estate Prices, and Property Taxes – SSRN
• Government-Made House Price Bubbles? Austerity, Homeownership, Rental, and Credit Liberalization Policies and the “Irrational Exuberance” on Housing Markets – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Question #9 for 2024: What will happen with house prices in 2024? – Calculated Risk
• The Decline and Fall of the Federal Home Loan Banks – Cato Institute
• The Hidden Force Pushing Mortgage Rates Down. The differential between 30-year mortgage rates and benchmark Treasury yields has been shrinking for eight straight weeks – Wall Street Journal
• Mortgage Rates Could Drop in 2024—But How Far? Hoping to buy a home in the new year? This is what you can expect for mortgage rates in 2024 – Wall Street Journal
• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year ? – Calculated Risk

On the US—other developments:    

• Chill in the Housing Market Seeps Into Other Industries. The slowdown in the residential real estate market, a crucial cog in the American economy, is threatening sectors like home improvement and storage. – The New York Times
• Long-Distance Movers Targeting Less Competitive, Less Expensive Housing Markets – Zillow
• The Sad Irony of “Not In My Backyard” (NIMBY) – American Institute for Economic Research
• When Will New York Solve Its Housing Crisis? Probably Not This Year. As the state’s legislative session gets underway, the politicians who could fix the problem face big hurdles. – New York Times
• Twin Cities region meets ambitious housing goals for second year but has much work left to do. With fresh data from 2022, the Regional Housing Affordability Dashboard depicts trends in the Twin Cities regional housing market – Minneapolis Fed 
• The Fed and the U.S. housing crunch – Politico
• What is behind housing sentiment? – Finance Research Letters
• How much will Residential investment change in 2024? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2024? – Calculated Risk
• Zillow’s Chief Economist’s 2024 Housing Market Resolutions. Zillow Chief Economist Skylar Olsen shares her wish list for a healthier housing market in 2024 – Zillow

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Australia’s property market faces fresh peaks and troughs with slowing prices and interest rates tipped to drop. Price trends are unlikely to be straightforward in 2024, even if the RBA’s next move is a rate reduction – The Guardian
• [Australia] Australian Home-Price Growth Slows Further as Sydney Cools. Cost of living pressures are taking heat out of housing market. RBA rate cut in 2024 could help spur demand, CoreLogic says – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Toronto Home Sales Surge Most in Eight Months With Prices Falling. Borrowing costs have moved lower after late-year bond rally. Home prices in December were the lowest since March 2023 – Bloomberg
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong home prices to erode another 10% in 2024 as impact of expected interest-rate cuts will take time: Citigroup. ‘It will take time for interest-rate cuts to impact the Hong Kong economy,’ analyst says. The bank expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in July and reduce them by 1 per cent this year – South China Morning Post
• [Ireland] House prices to stabilise in 2024 as second-hand market recovers – Daft.ie. Property values rose 3.4% last year with the average home on the market for €320,000 – The Irish Times
• [Norway] Norway Home Prices Grow for Third Month as Rate Peak Reached. Seasonally adjusted prices rose 0.2% on month in December. Market is forecast to pick up pace after first quarter – Bloomberg
• [Spain] Sweden La vivienda en 2024: comprar y alquilar será más caro, pero las hipotecas darán un respiro. El sector no espera una gran crisis que provoque caídas generalizadas en los precios, aunque en segunda mano será posible encontrar algunas rebajas moderadas. Los endeudados verán cierto alivio en las letras mensuales – El Pais
• [Singapore] Singapore Home Prices Rise 2.7% in Fourth Quarter on Demand. Private residential prices climb for second straight quarter. Prices increased 6.7% for the whole year on local demand – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK Mortgage Approvals, Consumer Credit Rise More Than Forecast – Bloomberg