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Housing View – June 14, 2024

On cross-country:

  • Surging property prices: When will Europe’s cities become affordable again? – The Conversation
  • As homeownership falls, “generation rent” needs a policy leg up – The Economist


Working papers and conferences:

  • The euro, housing policies, and sports venues – Journal of Economic Perspectives
  • The Effects of Short-Term Rental Regulation: Insights from Chicago – NBER
  • Homeowners Insurance and Housing Prices – SSRN


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • House Price Appreciation by State and Metro Area: The First Quarter of 2024 – NAHB
  • Expert Panel Sees Home Price Growth Easing in 2024 and 2025 as Home Listings Trend Upward – Fannie Mae   
  • Homebuying Sentiment Hits New Survey Low. Citing Unaffordability, 86% of Consumers Say It’s a Bad Time to Buy a Home – Fannie Mae
  • Housing Costs Cool, but Remain a Source of Concern. Housing costs were up 5.4 percent in May from a year earlier, the smallest increase in more than two years. But monthly progress has slowed. – New York Times
  • Mortgage Rates Remained Elevated in May – NAHB
  • Mortgage Rates Fall Under 7% as Buyers Face a ‘Bittersweet Market’ – Realtor.com
  • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in May. Early Reports Suggest NAR reported Sales might be up slightly Year-over-year Calculated Risk
  • 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May – Calculated Risk
  • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2024 – Calculated Risk
  • Housing market inventory in Texas is back above pre-pandemic levels. These states could be next. ResiClub analyzed the latest inventory data from Realtor.com. Here’s what it shows about shifts in the housing market. – Fast Company
  • Americans have never felt worse about the housing market. A whopping 86% of consumers said it’s a bad time to buy a home, according to a new Fannie Mae survey – Quartz
  • Q1 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO. REO: lender Real Estate Owned – Calculated Risk
  • Pandemic Boomtown Housing Prices Slow but Retain Most of Their Gains – CoreLogic
  • Housing Markets on Florida’s West Coast Are Cooling Faster Than Anywhere Else in the U.S., With Supply Rising and Demand Falling – Redfin 
  • New York City Might Finally Curb Broker Fees for Renters. A majority of the City Council supports a bill that would transfer the cost of most broker fees from renters to landlords. – New York Times
  • Here’s How Many Home Sales Were ‘Lost’ by the Mortgage Rate Lock-In Effect – Realtor.com
  • Higher Risk of Housing Market Slowdown Continues in California, New Jersey, and Illinois – ATTOM


On the US—other developments:    

  • Hidden Costs of Homeownership For a Typical Single-Family Home Total Over $18,000 Per Year. Average costs of owning and maintaining a home have risen 26% since 2020 – Bankrate  
  • Homeownership Costs in US Jumped 26% Since Pandemic Began. Bills for taxes, insurance, energy and maintenance soared. Typical buyers spending $300 a month more than in March 2020 – Bloomberg
  • High Housing Costs Are Consuming Household Incomes – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
  • More than 900 Housing Professionals Urge Congress to Act on Affordability Crisis NAHB
  • How Will the Economy Impact Housing for the Rest of 2024? – NAHB
  • Best and Worst Metro Areas to Be a First-Time Homebuyer – AEI
  • Industrial Realignment. Prologis (PLD) on the Trends Shaping the Industrial Real Estate Market, Labor Issues, and “The Gundo Bros” – Lewis Enterprises
  • CRE in Trouble – Apollo
  • The Pain in Real Estate Continues – Apollo
  • Homes have popped up on the National Mall – showing they can be built fast and cheap – NPR
  • Week in Review. Week of June 3 — Payrolls pop, Sentiment sags – Home Economics
  • Secret #25 – The Black Home Ownership Rate is Higher Today in the South than in the North – Real Estate Decoded 
  • Secret #26 – The Black Home Ownership Rate Is NOT Getting Any Closer to the White Home Ownership Rate! – Real Estate Decoded
  • Secret #29 – For Mortgages, “Affordable” is Code for “Higher-Foreclosure” – Real Estate Decoded
  • The housing market crisis shows that the tool the Fed is using to lower inflation is doing the exact opposite, former White House adviser says – Yahoo Finance
  • Can Your Town Solve the Housing Crisis? In Cincinnati, planners, developers and designers connected to the New Urbanism and Strong Towns movements gathered to find bottom-up ways to build more homes. – Bloomberg
  • She Made an Offer on a Condo. Then the Seller Learned She Was Black. A Black woman claims a white homeowner tried to pull out of a sale because of her race. – New York Times


On China:

  • China accelerates policy support rollout amid mixed data. Key economic indicators are mixed in China and, in fact, were mostly weaker than expected last month. So, policymakers are now stepping up support for the property sector in particular – ING
  • China’s Homeowners and Banks Are Trapped in a Mortgage Mess. Lenders said to raise negative equity concerns with regulators. Homeowners mull defaulting on debt, selling or delaying plans – Bloomberg
  • China’s Call for ‘Open Mind’ Spurs Hope of New Housing Measures – Bloomberg
  • Can China Turn Its Property Glut Into Affordable Housing? A previous plan to build 36 million homes led to widespread corruption. – Foreign Policy
  • China central bank promotes relending to speed up sales of housing stock – Reuters  


On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Brisbane to introduce Airbnb permits for property owners amid housing crisis crackdown. Mayor Adrian Schrinner says property owners would now need appropriate planning approvals, body corporate support and a 24-7 property manager for short-term rentals – The Guardian
  • [Australia] Australian capital city rents have biggest monthly fall in over four years but crisis ‘far from over’. Sydney house rents still nation’s highest but an expected rise in vacancy rates this winter could provide some relief to tenants, expert says – The Guardian
  • [Greece] Greece’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s Identity Crisis Fuels $270 Billion Property Wipeout. The five-year property downturn is emblematic of a steady loss of faith in the city’s status as Asia’s premier financial hub. – Bloomberg
  • [Mexico] Mexico’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
  • [Netherlands] Home building, not rent cuts, holds the key to solving Netherlands’ housing shortages. The Dutch government plans to improve housing affordability for middle-income earners by expanding existing rent regulations and introducing a rule that two-thirds of housing construction must be affordable. However, these two policies are expected to slow down housing production, which will ultimately increase the housing shortage – ING
  • [Sweden] How an American Dream of Housing Became a Reality in Sweden. The U.S. once looked to modular construction as an efficient way to build lots of housing at scale, but Sweden picked up the idea and put it into practice – New York Times
  • [United Kingdom] UK Rents Rise at the Slowest Pace Since 2021 as Demand Eases. Average cost of renting still higher than before the pandemic. Low investment in new lets means supply shortage will persist – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices stabilise as rising wages and consumer confidence steady market. Average price of a home dipped by 0.1%, says Halifax, bringing cost of typical property down to £288,688 – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] Social rent homes in England fall by more than quarter of a million in decade. Charities have called on all political parties to address the ‘shameful record’ on social housing and build more homes – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] UK mortgages in arrears hit near 8-year high. Bank of England data points to continuing impact of high borrowing costs on households – FT
  • [United Kingdom] Sunak promises to relaunch Help to Buy scheme – BBC
  • [United Kingdom] Conservative manifesto puts home ownership up top – but ignores housing affordability – The Conversation
  • [United Kingdom] UK Housing Market Loses Momentum as Interest-Rate Cut Hopes Diminish. RICS says gauge of new buyer demand drops to six-month low. Housing market emerging as key battleground in July 4 election – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] A House Price Boon for the Next UK Government. ‘Higher-for-longer’ interest rates plus rising wages mean the affordability problem may solve itself. – Bloomberg

On cross-country:

  • Surging property prices: When will Europe’s cities become affordable again? – The Conversation
  • As homeownership falls, “generation rent” needs a policy leg up – The Economist

Working papers and conferences:

  • The euro, housing policies, and sports venues – Journal of Economic Perspectives
  • The Effects of Short-Term Rental Regulation: Insights from Chicago – NBER
  • Homeowners Insurance and Housing Prices – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices,

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Housing View – June 7, 2024

On cross-country:

  • Demographia International Housing Affordability—2024 Edition – Demographia
  • Secret #17 – U.S. Housing Policies Almost Moved Toward Vienna or Singapore in the 1960s – Real Estate Decoded


Working papers and conferences:

  • The Evolving Structure of Housing Markets: Institutional Investors and Their Influential Role During the Great Recession – Philadelphia Fed
  • Temperatures and Search: Evidence From the Housing Market – SSRN
  • The Capitalization of Energy Labels into House Prices. Evidence from Italy – SSRN


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • US Homebuyers Start to Revolt Over Steep Prices – Bloomberg
  • Developers Sit on Empty Lots After Historic Apartment Boom. Higher interest rates and flattening rents scuttle projects – Wall Street Journal
  • Final Look at Local Housing Markets in April and a Look Ahead to May Sales – Calculated Risk
  • Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in April; Up 6.5% Year-over-year. Over the last 3 months, the seasonal adjusted index has increased at a 3.7% annual rate – Calculated Risk
  • Private Residential Construction Spending Edges Up in April – NAHB
  • These US cities are due for a housing price drop, real estate analysts find – The Hill
  • Housing Vacancies and Homeownership – US Census
  • Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
  • Renters Are Staying Longer Amid Rising Housing Costs And High Mortgage Rates – Yahoo Finance
  • May 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
  • Single-Family and Multifamily Production Headed in Opposite Directions Across Geographies – NAHB
  • US Home Price Insights – June 2024 – CoreLogic


On the US—other developments:    

  • What’s actually happening in the housing market, according to top housing economist Ali Wolf. There’s been a major shift in the market, says housing economist Ali Wolf—and the big builders are dominating. – Fast Company
  • The Week in Review. Week of May 27th — Rents Retreat as Prices Peak – Home Economics
  • Secret #16 – Economic Fundamentals Explain Less Than Half of House Price Changes – Real Estate Decoded
  • Secret #19 – Worse Than Redlining. To Be Pre-Approved for FHA Mortgages, FHA Required New Home Builders to Ban ALL Sales to Blacks – Real Estate Decoded
  • What Is Fair Housing? There are laws to protect people from discrimination in buying, renting and living in their homes. – New York Times
  • Don’t Give Up, Buyers: Real Estate Today Is Still a Seller’s Market, but Moving Toward Balance – Realtor.com
  • Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in April, Multi-family Increased Slightly. CoreLogic: “U.S. delinquency rate increased from a year earlier in March, driven by an uptick in early-stage delinquencies” – Calculated Risk 
  • Residential Construction AD&C Lending Declines – NAHB
  • Four Years After Covid: Downtown Recovery Remains Weak – Apollo
  • Secret #20 – From 1940 to 1970 the Black Home Ownership Rate Increased More in the South than the North – Real Estate Decoded
  • The Housing Policy Implications of Taylor Swift – Reason
  • Essay on “How Constitutional Litigation Can Help End Exclusionary Zoning” – Reason
  • How the Housing Market is Changing in Cities Gaining the Most New Neighbors – Zillow
  • Rebuilding the Construction Trades Workforce – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
  • New York’s housing crunch collides with development skeptics. Neighborhoods that have maintained a suburban feel are fighting Adams’ plan to grow the city’s housing supply. – Politico


On China:

  • China’s Biggest Cities See Housing Market Pick Up After Easing. Shanghai, Shenzhen buyers show interest in new and used homes. Analysts, investors are optimistic worst of slump may be over – Bloomberg
  • All the Tools the PBOC Has to Support China’s Property Sector. Focus of latest relending program is excess housing inventory. Central bank programs can be expanded if needed: analysts – Bloomberg
  • China needs to inject US$276 billion into property market to stabilise prices: Goldman Sachs. The funding need is based on the 20 trillion yuan inventory the US investment bank estimates exists in the 80 mainland Chinese cities it tracks. ‘So far, the scale of policy support is not sufficient to move the needle’, the bank says – South China Morning Post
  • Guess Who’s Angry at China’s Real Estate Bailout: Homeowners. China has relaxed or eliminated measures on home buying to spur new purchases. This has made a vocal constituency of existing homeowners very unhappy. – New York Times


On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Australia’s Home Price Gains Quicken With Sydney at Record High – Bloomberg
  • [Australia] Australia home prices continue to climb, Sydney back at record high – Reuters
  • [Australia] Australian Home Loans Jump as Rental Yields Lure Investors. Home loans to investors climbed 36.1% in April from a year ago. Gross rental yield highest since Aug 2019, CoreLogic data show – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Could a housing revolution transform Canadian cities? – BBC 
  • [India] India’s home prices to rise steadily, affordable housing supply to lag demand: Reuters poll – Reuters
  • [Netherlands] The Netherland’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
  • [Portugal] Portugal to use golden visa scheme to help migrants, build affordable homes – Reuters
  • [Singapore] Singapore’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
  • [Ukraine] Development of mortgages in Ukraine – VoxEU
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices return to growth as market ‘shows signs of resilience’. Rate more than doubles to 1.3% in May and average property price rises to £264,249, Nationwide says – The Guardian

On cross-country:

  • Demographia International Housing Affordability—2024 Edition – Demographia
  • Secret #17 – U.S. Housing Policies Almost Moved Toward Vienna or Singapore in the 1960s – Real Estate Decoded

Working papers and conferences:

  • The Evolving Structure of Housing Markets: Institutional Investors and Their Influential Role During the Great Recession – Philadelphia Fed
  • Temperatures and Search: Evidence From the Housing Market – SSRN
  • The Capitalization of Energy Labels into House Prices.

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

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