The Unassuming Economist

Links to the week’s top housing market stories.

Cross Country

• Canada’s Housing Market Starts to Strengthen After Rate Cut – Bloomberg
• Canada real estate: Home prices continue to rise despite slumping sales, says Royal LePage – Yahoo Finance
• Are We in a Housing Bubble in 2024? – Norada Real Estate Investments
• The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Europe: Biggest Price Drops in Germany, Finland, Sweden, Austria, France, Denmark – Wolf Street
• Vietnam’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide

US

• Better news on housing construction plus a methodological improvement pushes up the forecast – The Nowcast (and other thoughts on the economy)
• A Discussion of the Housing Market with Lance Lambert (ResiClub) – CalculatedRisk Newsletter
• Home Insurance Rates in America Are Wildly Distorted. Here’s Why – New York Times
• NAHB Urges Congress to Address Housing Affordability Crisis – NAHB
• Rate cuts won’t fix housing affordability, economist says – Yahoo Finance
• Florida is bucking the national housing trend, real estate firm says – Fox Business
• America’s most livable small cities revealed, with locals loving their reasonable housing costs, plentiful jobs and great amenities – Daily Mail
• Could policies solve US housing affordability crisis? – MPA Mag

Links to the week’s top housing market stories.

Cross Country

• Investment in UK student housing climbs 245 per cent to record high – Yahoo Finance
• Germany’s Urban Housing Recession Is Coming to an End – Bloomberg
• House prices and rents rose between Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 – Eurostat
• Hong Kong’s talent pass program drives up housing rents – Nikkei Asia
• China’s property bust won’t be fixed without the intervention of the state – East Asia Forum

US

• The Geography of Housing Affordability – Aziz Sunderji
• Six Lessons from Six Months of Thesis-Driven Courses – Paul Stanton and Brad Hargreaves
• When will the housing market crash again? – Yahoo Finance
• These Fast-Growing Florida And Texas Cities Have 2024’s Slowest Housing Markets—Here’s Why – Forbes
• Housing Market Predictions For 2024: When Will Home Prices Be Affordable Again? – Forbes
• Current mortgage rates as of July 4, 2024 – Fortune
• Want to buy or sell a home? How to get a 3% mortgage rate, negotiate fees, and more – USA Today
• Real Estate Experts Say These Will Be the Best US Cities To Buy Property in the Next 5 Years – Yahoo Finance
• Housing Market Entering ‘Crash Stage’ in Multiple Cities – Newsweek
• These 15 housing markets have the highest correction risks – Fox News

Links to the week’s top housing market stories.

On Cross-Country

• Why house prices are surging once again – The Economist.
• Ottawa housing market ranked as ‘severely unaffordable’ in global survey – CTV News

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• House Prices In Pandemic-Era Boom Towns Are Going Bust As Prices Fall – Yahoo Finance
• You Might Be Buying Your House at the Top of the Market – WSJ
• FHFA House Price Index Up 0.2 Percent in April; Up 6.3 Percent from Last Year – FHFA
• Texas House Prices Fall in Multiple Cities – Newsweek
• California House Prices Plunge Up to $400k as Insurance Crisis Deepens – Newsweek
• US consumer confidence retreats slightly; house prices remain elevated – Yahoo Finance
• Mortgage rates fall slightly to 6.86% – FoxBusiness
• Mortgage rates just dropped to a 2-month low. Here’s why you may want to buy now – CBS News
• Here’s where U.S. rents are rising — and falling — the fastest – CNBC
• Strain of rent on wages in WA is among highest in U.S., report finds – Washington State Standard
• Rents Surged in These U.S. Cities in June – Mansion Global
• MONTHLY NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION, MAY 2024 – US Census

On China:

• China’s big housing correction is not over – FT
• China’s Housing Market Crash Intensifies – Newsweek
• China’s Housing Market Woes Deepen Despite Stimulus – WSJ
• China Home-Price Slump Accelerates Despite More Stimulus – Bloomberg
• China new home prices fall at fastest clip in nearly 10 years – Reuters

On cross-country:

• Why house prices are surging once again. In America, Australia and parts of Europe, property markets have shrugged off higher interest rates – The Economist
• European Residential Update – Knight Frank
• These cities are now so expensive they’re considered ‘impossibly unaffordable’ – CNN

Working papers and conferences:

• The Price of Housing in the United States, 1890–2006 – Philadelphia Fed
• Rent Guarantee Insurance – NBER
• Printing Away the Mortgages: Fiscal Inflation and the Post-Covid Boom – NBER
• Property Insurance and Disaster Risk: New Evidence from Mortgage Escrow Data – NBER
• A Faster Convergence of Shelter Prices and Market Rent: Implications for Inflation – Boston Fed
• Paying Too Much? Borrower Sophistication and Overpayment in the U.S. Mortgage Market – Philadelphia Fed
• Affordable home ownership can lead to stronger relationships – VoxEU
• Printing Away the Mortgages: Fiscal Inflation and the Post-COVID Boom – SSRN 

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Rent Hikes Loom, Posing Threat to Inflation Fight. Rents in several Northeast, Midwest cities are rising this year; Fed chair calls housing situation complicated – Wall Street Journal
• The U.S. is now short 4.5 million homes as the housing deficit grows – Zillow
• High Mortgage Rates Act as a Drag on Builder Confidence – NAHB
• Secret #30 – Mortgages Are Phenomenally Riskier Today Than When the U.S. Home Ownership Rate Increased the Fastest – Real Estate Decoded
• Secret #33 – Easier Mortgages Easily Turn Into Higher House Prices – Real Estate Decoded
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in May – Calculated Risk
• 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in May; California Home Sales Down 6% YoY in May – Calculated Risk
• The federal government’s new plan to (maybe) give renters straight cash. A bold experiment to help tenants is advancing. – Vox
• When will housing prices drop? – Yahoo Finance
• Cities with empty commercial space and housing shortages are converting office buildings into apartments – here’s what they’re learning – The Conversation  
• 87% of Outstanding Mortgage Debt has a Sub-6% Rate – Realtor.com
• Secret #31 – All Those Decades of “Affordable” Mortgages Didn’t Increase Home Ownership – Real Estate Decoded
• Secret #32 – “Affordable” Mortgages are Affordable for the Government – Real Estate Decoded
• Housing Starts Retreat in May – NAHB
• Home Flipping Activity and Profits Both Rise Across U.S. in First Quarter of 2024 – ATTOM

On the US—other developments:    

• Comparing the Current Housing Market to the 1978 to 1982 period – Calculated Risk
• The Week in Review. Week of June 10 — taking stock of home price changes – Home Economics
• Residential Building Material Prices Remain Relatively Unchanged in May – NAHB
• Housing costs are clouding an otherwise glowing economy – CNN
• The Divisive Housing Perk Adding Thousands of Dollars to Lawmaker Pay. Some in Congress turn down the allowance for fear of a political backlash – Wall Street Journal
• Is U.S. Housing Becoming (A Little) More Affordable? – S&P Global
• Top 10 U.S. Housing Markets Least At-Risk of Declines in Q1 2024 – ATTOM
• ‘The most challenging home buying market we’ve ever seen’ – Politico
• The Connections Between Rental Deserts, Segregation, and Restrictive Zoning – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Amazon Promised to Deliver Affordable Housing. How’s It Doing? As the tech giant adds $1.4 billion to its Housing Equity Fund, developers and advocates in Seattle, Nashville and DC reflect on the company’s local impact. – Bloomberg
• ‘I Live in Hell’: Anti-Growth Fervor Grips US South After Pandemic Boom. Local groups are pushing for restrictions on new developments, saying an influx of residents has strained resources. – Bloomberg

On China:

• China Property Drag Is Getting Worse, Factory Output Disappoints. Industry expansion lost momentum in May as tariff threats loom. Retail spending picked up but remains weak by past standards – Bloomberg
• China Real Estate, Production Slide Highlights More Stimulus Needed – Bloomberg   
• Early repayments shrink China’s mortgage-backed securities market by 65%. Property owners rush to pay down debts or refinance at lower rates in absence of other investment options – FT
• China new home prices fall at fastest clip in nearly 10 years – Reuters
• China’s Housing Market Woes Deepen Despite Stimulus. Home prices declined at a faster pace in May in major cities, while other data show a mixed picture for the world’s second-largest economy – Wall Street Journal
• China’s Housing Market Crash Intensifies – Newsweek  
• China new home prices drop at fastest rate in nearly a decade. Property glut holds down prices despite government attempts to revive market – The Guardian

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Unpacking multi-speed conditions in Australia’s housing markets – CoreLogic
• [Australia] Australia’s NSW State to Increase Duties on Foreign Home Buyers – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Vancouver housing is ‘impossibly unaffordable,’ says new report. Vancouver has been the first, second or third least affordable major market for each of the last 16 years – Vancouver Sun
• [Canada] Canada Housing Starts Hit Highest Level in Seven Months – Bloomberg
• [Dominican Republic] The Dominican Republic’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [France] France’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Germany] What investors should learn from a Berlin housing saga. Corporate boards might be surprised by some of the ideas floating around on Europe’s left-leaning political wing – FT
• [Ireland] Irish house prices now 10% above their boom-time peak. Latest official barometer indicates house prices rose an average rate of 7.9 per cent in the 12 months to April this year – The Irish Times
• [New Zealand] House prices continue to fall, with Auckland’s dropping the most – RNZ
• [Portugal] The Mayor Who Sees Airbnb as an Agent for Good. In Portugal’s second-largest city, officials are banning new short-term units in busy areas while allowing them as a basis for urban regeneration in neglected quarters. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Housing demand wanes as buyers bank on rate cut – BBC
• [United Kingdom] Does it make more sense to buy or rent a property in the UK? On average, buying a home with a capital and interest mortgage is 11 per cent more expensive than renting – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices remain near record high with little sign of election impact. Rightmove says demand from buyers up 5% with caution detected only among would-be sellers at top of market – The Guardian

On cross-country:

• Surging property prices: When will Europe’s cities become affordable again? – The Conversation
• As homeownership falls, “generation rent” needs a policy leg up – The Economist

Working papers and conferences:

• The euro, housing policies, and sports venues – Journal of Economic Perspectives
• The Effects of Short-Term Rental Regulation: Insights from Chicago – NBER
• Homeowners Insurance and Housing Prices – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• House Price Appreciation by State and Metro Area: The First Quarter of 2024 – NAHB
• Expert Panel Sees Home Price Growth Easing in 2024 and 2025 as Home Listings Trend Upward – Fannie Mae   
• Homebuying Sentiment Hits New Survey Low. Citing Unaffordability, 86% of Consumers Say It’s a Bad Time to Buy a Home – Fannie Mae
• Housing Costs Cool, but Remain a Source of Concern. Housing costs were up 5.4 percent in May from a year earlier, the smallest increase in more than two years. But monthly progress has slowed. – New York Times
• Mortgage Rates Remained Elevated in May – NAHB
• Mortgage Rates Fall Under 7% as Buyers Face a ‘Bittersweet Market’ – Realtor.com
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in May. Early Reports Suggest NAR reported Sales might be up slightly Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May – Calculated Risk
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2024 – Calculated Risk
• Housing market inventory in Texas is back above pre-pandemic levels. These states could be next. ResiClub analyzed the latest inventory data from Realtor.com. Here’s what it shows about shifts in the housing market. – Fast Company
• Americans have never felt worse about the housing market. A whopping 86% of consumers said it’s a bad time to buy a home, according to a new Fannie Mae survey – Quartz
• Q1 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO. REO: lender Real Estate Owned – Calculated Risk
• Pandemic Boomtown Housing Prices Slow but Retain Most of Their Gains – CoreLogic
• Housing Markets on Florida’s West Coast Are Cooling Faster Than Anywhere Else in the U.S., With Supply Rising and Demand Falling – Redfin 
• New York City Might Finally Curb Broker Fees for Renters. A majority of the City Council supports a bill that would transfer the cost of most broker fees from renters to landlords. – New York Times
• Here’s How Many Home Sales Were ‘Lost’ by the Mortgage Rate Lock-In Effect – Realtor.com
• Higher Risk of Housing Market Slowdown Continues in California, New Jersey, and Illinois – ATTOM

On the US—other developments:    

• Hidden Costs of Homeownership For a Typical Single-Family Home Total Over $18,000 Per Year. Average costs of owning and maintaining a home have risen 26% since 2020 – Bankrate  
• Homeownership Costs in US Jumped 26% Since Pandemic Began. Bills for taxes, insurance, energy and maintenance soared. Typical buyers spending $300 a month more than in March 2020 – Bloomberg
• High Housing Costs Are Consuming Household Incomes – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• More than 900 Housing Professionals Urge Congress to Act on Affordability Crisis – NAHB
• How Will the Economy Impact Housing for the Rest of 2024? – NAHB
• Best and Worst Metro Areas to Be a First-Time Homebuyer – AEI
• Industrial Realignment. Prologis (PLD) on the Trends Shaping the Industrial Real Estate Market, Labor Issues, and “The Gundo Bros” – Lewis Enterprises
• CRE in Trouble – Apollo
• The Pain in Real Estate Continues – Apollo
• Homes have popped up on the National Mall – showing they can be built fast and cheap – NPR
• Week in Review. Week of June 3 — Payrolls pop, Sentiment sags – Home Economics
• Secret #25 – The Black Home Ownership Rate is Higher Today in the South than in the North – Real Estate Decoded 
• Secret #26 – The Black Home Ownership Rate Is NOT Getting Any Closer to the White Home Ownership Rate! – Real Estate Decoded
• Secret #29 – For Mortgages, “Affordable” is Code for “Higher-Foreclosure” – Real Estate Decoded
• The housing market crisis shows that the tool the Fed is using to lower inflation is doing the exact opposite, former White House adviser says – Yahoo Finance
• Can Your Town Solve the Housing Crisis? In Cincinnati, planners, developers and designers connected to the New Urbanism and Strong Towns movements gathered to find bottom-up ways to build more homes. – Bloomberg
• She Made an Offer on a Condo. Then the Seller Learned She Was Black. A Black woman claims a white homeowner tried to pull out of a sale because of her race. – New York Times

On China:

• China accelerates policy support rollout amid mixed data. Key economic indicators are mixed in China and, in fact, were mostly weaker than expected last month. So, policymakers are now stepping up support for the property sector in particular – ING
• China’s Homeowners and Banks Are Trapped in a Mortgage Mess. Lenders said to raise negative equity concerns with regulators. Homeowners mull defaulting on debt, selling or delaying plans – Bloomberg
• China’s Call for ‘Open Mind’ Spurs Hope of New Housing Measures – Bloomberg
• Can China Turn Its Property Glut Into Affordable Housing? A previous plan to build 36 million homes led to widespread corruption. – Foreign Policy
• China central bank promotes relending to speed up sales of housing stock – Reuters  

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Brisbane to introduce Airbnb permits for property owners amid housing crisis crackdown. Mayor Adrian Schrinner says property owners would now need appropriate planning approvals, body corporate support and a 24-7 property manager for short-term rentals – The Guardian
• [Australia] Australian capital city rents have biggest monthly fall in over four years but crisis ‘far from over’. Sydney house rents still nation’s highest but an expected rise in vacancy rates this winter could provide some relief to tenants, expert says – The Guardian
• [Greece] Greece’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s Identity Crisis Fuels $270 Billion Property Wipeout. The five-year property downturn is emblematic of a steady loss of faith in the city’s status as Asia’s premier financial hub. – Bloomberg
• [Mexico] Mexico’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Netherlands] Home building, not rent cuts, holds the key to solving Netherlands’ housing shortages. The Dutch government plans to improve housing affordability for middle-income earners by expanding existing rent regulations and introducing a rule that two-thirds of housing construction must be affordable. However, these two policies are expected to slow down housing production, which will ultimately increase the housing shortage – ING
• [Sweden] How an American Dream of Housing Became a Reality in Sweden. The U.S. once looked to modular construction as an efficient way to build lots of housing at scale, but Sweden picked up the idea and put it into practice – New York Times
• [United Kingdom] UK Rents Rise at the Slowest Pace Since 2021 as Demand Eases. Average cost of renting still higher than before the pandemic. Low investment in new lets means supply shortage will persist – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices stabilise as rising wages and consumer confidence steady market. Average price of a home dipped by 0.1%, says Halifax, bringing cost of typical property down to £288,688 – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Social rent homes in England fall by more than quarter of a million in decade. Charities have called on all political parties to address the ‘shameful record’ on social housing and build more homes – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK mortgages in arrears hit near 8-year high. Bank of England data points to continuing impact of high borrowing costs on households – FT
• [United Kingdom] Sunak promises to relaunch Help to Buy scheme – BBC
• [United Kingdom] Conservative manifesto puts home ownership up top – but ignores housing affordability – The Conversation
• [United Kingdom] UK Housing Market Loses Momentum as Interest-Rate Cut Hopes Diminish. RICS says gauge of new buyer demand drops to six-month low. Housing market emerging as key battleground in July 4 election – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] A House Price Boon for the Next UK Government. ‘Higher-for-longer’ interest rates plus rising wages mean the affordability problem may solve itself. – Bloomberg