The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Li Xie, and Zhisheng Huang:

“We incorporate the characteristics of energy price management systems in developed countries and China into a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) respectively, examine the differences in the impact of international energy price shocks on the countries’ inflation under the two types of energy price management systems, and then analyze the role of developed countries’ energy price management system (DC-EPMS) and China’s energy price management system (CN-EPMS) in the process of international energy price shocks affecting inflation. The results indicate that CN-EPMS is more effective in mitigating the negative impact of international energy price shocks on inflation compared to DC-EPMS in developed countries. Under the DC-EPMS, non-state-owned enterprises in a dominant position in the energy market, faced with international energy price shocks, will be driven by profit-maximizing behaviors to transfer the fluctuations in international energy prices to domestic energy prices and their expectations, thereby triggering inflation in developed countries; under the CN-EPMS, state-owned energy enterprises as policy implementation tools, faced with international energy price shocks, have played a functional role in safeguarding energy supply and maintaining energy price stability through energy price control and policy-oriented financial support, thereby stabilizing the energy price expectations of domestic energy consumers and effectively blocking the transmission of international energy price shocks to the inflation.”

From a paper by Ali Moridian, Hassan Heidari, Seyed Mehdi Hosseini, and Heshmatolah Asgari:

“This study investigates the asymmetric effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and Oil Price Uncertainty (OPU) on inflation in Iran, using the Quantile-on-Quantile (QQ) regression method. Given Iran’s oil-dependent economy, the research aims to understand how global and domestic uncertainties impact inflation dynamics, particularly during economic turbulence. Traditional models often neglect the non-linear and heterogeneous effects of uncertainty on inflation, prompting the use of the QQ approach to capture the varying impacts across different quantiles.”

From a paper by Deepak Kushawaha, Abhishek Gorsi, Ankit Singh Kharwar & Abhishek Singh:

“This paper explores the impact of renewable energy (RE) generation on energy inflation in India using an ARDL model with data from 1974 to 2023. The findings show that RE generation has a significant long-term positive effect on energy inflation, probably due to the high initial infrastructure costs. These results challenge the divine coincidence hypothesis, suggesting that while RE helps cut emissions, it might also drive-up inflation. This analysis does not critique RE development but highlights the need for a nuanced understanding of its economic impacts. To counteract these inflationary pressures, policies should focus on increasing investments in RE research and development, implementing effective energy storage solutions, and upgrading grid infrastructure to balance economic growth, inflation control, and environmental sustainability.”

From a paper by Afees A. Salisu & Abeeb O. Olaniran:

“This study evaluates the predictability of energy uncertainty in relation to economic activity across the global and the large open economy of the United States. Two distinct objectives guide the research: first, to explore the nexus between energy uncertainty and economic activity using various metrics, and second, to examine how well energy uncertainty enhances the forecast performance of economic activity across three different benchmark models, including a random walk with and without drift, and a historical average. The analysis incorporates two lag structures to capture additional dynamics, ensuring a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between energy uncertainty and economic activity. Results indicate that heightened energy uncertainty generally stifles economic activity, although this effect weakens over a longer lag structure. This finding is consistent for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts, and remains robust even when certain fundamentals are incorporated as controls, highlighting the strength of the research. These findings hold significant implications for both micro- and macroeconomic perspectives, underscoring the potential contribution of this research to the field of economics. The implications for policymakers are particularly noteworthy, as they provide valuable insights for decision-making in the energy sector.”

From a chapter by Salil Seth, Mrinal Kanti Mahato, and Parveen Yadav:

“Confronted with proliferating geopolitical risks emanating from energy producers, the energy security of the European Union (EU) is surrounded by plethora of challenges. Amid high volatility in energy prices, political disruptions and energy supply constraints, myriad hurdles are in the offing for energy security in EU. The current energy policy of the EU, which emphasizes competition, sustainability, and a secure supply chain, requires revitalization. A roadmap should be established to develop energy security strategies. This work performs systematic data mining for drawing literature in line with the mentioned road map-based objectives.The intention of the work is to facilitate EU with conceptualized framework strategies pertaining to energy security. This is anticipated to act as a trailblazer for energy protagonists like sustainability engineers, energy policy drafters, energy supply chain intermediaries, and strategy makers and incubate the concept with reference to the EU. This will enable the EU to overcome challenges in the energy security and at the same time set a benchmark for other competing nations.”