The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Luca Bettarelli, Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, Jonathan D. Ostry and Loredana Pisano:

“In this paper, we first test the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, using a large sample of approximately 190 advanced and developing countries, over a period of 34 years (1989-2022). We find that (CO 2 ) emissions respond positively to increasing income per capita, up to a turning point of approximately US$25,000. In a departure from the previous literature, we allow the relationship between economic development and emissions to depend on the stringency of environmental regulation.”

From a paper by Jarosław Brodny, Magdalena Tutak, and Wieslaw Wes Grebski:

“One of the foremost challenges in today’s global economy is ensuring energy security for individual countries and regions. In the contemporary context, this security plays a pivotal role in ensuring sovereignty, fostering innovation, and bolstering competitiveness, particularly in knowledge-based economies. The pursuit of energy independence while mitigating adverse environmental impacts stands as a key priority in European Union policy. Efforts towards achieving a zero-carbon economy encompass all member states, including those in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). This paper delves into this pressing issue by evaluating the sustainable energy security and policy efficiency of CEE countries over a 15-year period. This research employed a well-defined methodology, employing a multidimensional approach to address the complexity of the issue. The outcome of this approach was the development of the Sustainable Energy Security Index (SESI) for the countries under study, serving as a benchmark for evaluating energy security and policy effectiveness. Multiple Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods, including COPRAS, EDAS, MAIRCA, and the Hurwicz criterion, were utilized to determine the SESI value. Additionally, CRITIC, equal weights, standard deviation methods, and Laplace’s criterion were employed to ascertain the weights of the indices characterizing various dimensions of sustainable energy security. The findings reveal significant disparities in energy security and policy implementation effectiveness among CEE countries. Slovenia, Croatia, Latvia, Romania, and Hungary demonstrated notably strong performance, while Poland and Bulgaria lagged behind. These results underscore the necessity of integrating findings into the energy and climate strategies of both CEE countries and the EU-27 as a whole.”

From a paper by Enoch Quaye, Fred A. Yamoah, Pratyush K. Patro, and Adolf Acquaye:

“Research indicates that some countries have achieved decoupling between economic activity
and environmental damage, even considering consumption. We question whether emissions
reductions from decoupling sufficiently mitigate climate change to meet Sustainable
Development Goal 13: Climate Action. A novel approach is used to model latent information in
GDP growth rates to predict country-level sustainable carbon emission rates. We propose a
latent variable model for the growth rate of the CO2 emissions-to-GDP ratio to understand the
dynamics needed to achieve sustainable carbon thresholds for the Net Zero target. We document
that while the unconditional average GDP per capita growth trends upward, the belief in
its persistence is declining. The parameter linking consumption-based emissions with GDP per
capita growth is statistically significant. It indicates a downward trend and confirms that economies
can grow without a proportional increase in emissions as technology advances and people
alter their behaviour. The findings highlight the importance of policies and technological innovation
in decoupling economic growth from consumption emissions. Furthermore, the latent
variable (which is easy to learn) persists and barely changes during the estimation period 2010
to 2018. We observe a decline between 2015 and 2018, despite remaining high overall.”

From a paper by Thanh Nguyen, Son Nghiem, and Anh-Tuan Doan:

“The convergence tests showed no overall convergence but revealed convergence clubs for each factor. Granger causality tests indicated short-run bi-directional relationships between the variables. Long-run panel regression analysis confirmed that technological progress significantly improves per capita income and energy diversification. Additionally, it revealed bi-directional relationships between energy diversification and financial development, a uni-directional relationship from financial development to per capita income and a U-shaped effect of per capita income on energy diversification, with a turning point at $67,112.8 per year.”

From a paper by Roshnay R. Britz, Adefemi A. Obalade, and Anthanasius F. Tita:

“The Russia-Ukraine invasion presents one of the most trending news in 2022. Economies having solid ties with Russia are exposed to the contagion effects of the crisis. The South African economy is strongly linked to Russia via international trade and the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) alliance. This study investigates the impact of the Russia-Ukraine invasion on daily and monthly commodity prices in South Africa for the 2015-2023 period. The study applies descriptive statistics, dummy regression model and sub-period analysis to evaluate wheat prices, oil prices and inflation rate before and during the Russia-Ukraine invasion. The descriptive analysis and regression results indicate an increase in wheat prices, oil prices and inflation rates during the post-invasion period compared to the pre-invasion period. This implies a significant impact of the Russia-Ukraine invasion on these economic indicators in South Africa. Policy implications of the findings are highlighted in the concluding section.”