The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Huan Huu Nguyen, Nam Anh Tran Nguyen and Phuong Thao Le Thi:

“This study uses public emotions shown through social media to identify public sentiment toward the current Russia-Ukraine war. Utilizing the development of natural language processing algorithms, this study tests the correlation between the public psychological factor and the fluctuation in financial markets and energy prices during the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. This study emphasizes the public’s initial response to this event (from 1/2022 to 5/2022). It aims to evaluate the public sentiment on sudden shock instead of taking the incident comprehensively. The study results ascertain the public sentiment index contained from social media as a market indicator. During shock events such as the Russia-Ukraine war, public sentiment intensifies energy and financial asset price fluctuation, indicating that public psychology tends to be influenced by negative news and causes them to act accordingly, resulting in a sell-off in financial and energy markets.”

From a paper by Melike Bildirici, Özgür Ömer Ersin and Godwin Olasehinde-Williams:

“We argue that climate policy uncertainty can lead to a unique type of regulatory arbitrage whereby domestic firms respond to fluctuations between lax and stringent environmental regulations by relocating their production processes to jurisdictions with minimal environmental policies that could affect their profitability. The presence of uncertainty-driven environmental regulatory arbitrage may consequently contribute to the emergence of regions or countries that act as havens. This phenomenon could intensify internal carbon leakage, especially in economies with ambitious climate targets, as efforts to manage the risks associated with uncertain policies involuntarily result in increased carbon emissions elsewhere. Over time, this could lead to a rise in emissions displacement due to higher imports from abroad. To back up our claim with empirical evidence, we specifically study the internal carbon leakage in the EU15 countries resulting from the climate policy uncertainty. The analysis covers the period 1990–2022. A battery of econometric techniques is adopted—Fourier and conventional unit root tests, cointegration testing within the Fourier ARDL framework, short and long-run estimations within the Fourier ARDL framework, as well as Fourier Granger causality testing. By employing this battery of testing methodologies, we ensure robustness and thus the credibility of the study findings. Overall, after controlling for the effects of ecological innovation, environmental policy stringency, and the real GDP, we find that increases in climate policy uncertainty raise internal carbon leakage contemporaneously and that internal carbon leakage declines as climate policy uncertainty dies out over time in the long along with the short term. Furthermore, causality results reveal that climate policy uncertainty is a significant predictor of internal carbon leakage into the European Union. This study therefore identifies climate policy uncertainty as a potential source of idiosyncratic and systemic risk that aggravates internal carbon leakage as European Union products get replaced by more carbon-intensive imports.”

From a post by Charles Collyns and Michael Klein:

“The price of gold has jumped over 40 percent since the end of 2023, reaching $3,000 per ounce in mid-March 2025. This leap cannot be explained by a sudden increase in the demand for gold as jewelry or for its use in industrial production. Rather, it reflects the shifting demand for the yellow metal as a financial asset. Historically, gold has been held by private investors who see gold as a good way to protect wealth during inflationary periods or when there is substantial economic or political uncertainty as well as by central banks as part of their international reserves. Can shifts in these motivations explain the recent dramatic rise in the gold price?”

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From a new paper by Caner Demir and, Raif Cergibozan:

“In this paper, we present the results of a study examining whether the European Union, where countries act in common on many issues such as monetary policy, abolition of borders and mobilization of labour and capital, also constitutes a union in terms of energy security. From this point of view, whether the energy security risk in the European Union has converged or not is tested by using various analysis methods covering the period 1980–2018 for 17 EU countries. The findings of the study not only reveal whether individual countries converge to the group average but also show whether the group as a whole forms a convergent outlook. The linear unit root analysis indicates that each country is in a stochastic convergence process towards the group average. In addition, time series beta convergence analysis, which takes into account country-specific structural break periods, is applied and the convergent-divergent situation of each country before and after the break is revealed. Following this determination of individual countries, whether the sample as a whole constitutes a convergent process is tested with sigma and panel beta convergence models and it is determined that the 17 countries subject to the analysis form a convergent outlook as a whole. A robustness check is also made via a nonlinear time series analysis and the previous findings are confirmed.”

From a paper by Cheol-Keun Cho and Myunghyun Kim:

“We consider a proxy FAVAR (Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression) model to analyze the
impact of an oil supply news shock on the Korean economy. To identify an oil supply news shock, we
use the variation in oil futures prices around OPEC production announcements as a proxy. Moreover, we
include a factor that captures the common movement of many Korean macro variables such as various
price indices and investment. The estimation results of the proxy FAVAR model show that an oil supply
news shock increases the real oil price and the US CPI, and decreases world oil production and US GDP.
As for Korean macro variables, GDP and net exports fall and CPI increases in response to the shock.”