Inclusive Growth

Global Housing Watch

Forecasting Forum

Energy & Climate Change

Okun’s Law, V/U and the fiscal multiplier

From a paper by Jerome Creel, and Jonas Kaiser:

“This paper investigates the stabilization property of fiscal policy by revisiting the notion of
potential output via the use of Okun’s Law including the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio (V/U)
to proxy economic slack. We propose new measures of the US fiscal stance based on observable
data and transparent targets. Our results suggest that the US actually had a more conservative
fiscal stance than official data indicate. This paper also examines fiscal multipliers, which are
larger when V/U, rather than the unemployment rate, is used as measure of economic slack. We
find that state-dependence of fiscal multipliers is as sensitive to thresholds for bad years than
to the slack measure employed in Okun’s Law.”

From a paper by Jerome Creel, and Jonas Kaiser:

“This paper investigates the stabilization property of fiscal policy by revisiting the notion of
potential output via the use of Okun’s Law including the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio (V/U)
to proxy economic slack. We propose new measures of the US fiscal stance based on observable
data and transparent targets. Our results suggest that the US actually had a more conservative
fiscal stance than official data indicate.

Read the full article…

Posted by at 8:33 AM

Labels: Inclusive Growth

Looking behind the facade of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle

From a paper by Jan Acedański and Marek A. Dąbrowski:

“This paper provides novel insights into the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. The famous finding of Feldstein and Horioka (1980) is that despite perfect international capital mobility, domestic saving does not flow among countries to equalise yields but instead is tightly related to domestic investment. We observe that the link between empirical results and their theoretical foundations rarely goes beyond the saving-investment identity, and the research is dominated by empirical approaches coupled with advanced econometric techniques. This paper harnesses open economy macroeconomic models to demonstrate that the saving-retention coefficient informs about the relative importance of shocks rather than the degree of international capital mobility. Using the Monte Carlo experiments and the open economy RBC model, we show that the dominance of spending and foreign shocks moves the distribution of the estimated coefficient towards zero, whereas the prevalence of investment (productivity) shocks shifts the distribution towards one. On the empirical side, we proxy shocks to saving with debt and current account surprises constructed from the IMF’s forecasts and employ them to instrument the saving ratio. Using the CCE estimator, we uncover that, in line with the theoretical framework, the saving-retention coefficient is significantly lower in the instrumental variable regressions than in the regressions without instruments. Finally, we replicate the puzzling finding that investment-saving correlations are higher in advanced economies than in emerging market economies only in a few regressions without instrumentation and demonstrate that the difference disappears when the endogeneity of the saving rate is adequately remedied.”

From a paper by Jan Acedański and Marek A. Dąbrowski:

“This paper provides novel insights into the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. The famous finding of Feldstein and Horioka (1980) is that despite perfect international capital mobility, domestic saving does not flow among countries to equalise yields but instead is tightly related to domestic investment. We observe that the link between empirical results and their theoretical foundations rarely goes beyond the saving-investment identity, and the research is dominated by empirical approaches coupled with advanced econometric techniques.

Read the full article…

Posted by at 4:48 PM

Labels: Inclusive Growth

The Long-Term Rise of Labor Market Detachment: Evidence from Local Labor Markets

From a paper by Jaison R. Abel, and Richard Deitz:

“We develop a measure of chronic joblessness among prime-age men and women in the United Statestermed the detachment rate-that identifies those who have been out of the labor force for more than a year. We show that the detachment rate more than doubled for men since the early 1980s and rose by a quarter for women since 2000, though it is consistently considerably higher for women than men. We then explore the economic geography of labor market detachment to help explain its rise. Results show that the detachment rate increased more in places with weak local economies, particularly those that experienced a loss of routine production and administrative support jobs due to globalization and technological change. The loss of production jobs affected both men and women and was particularly consequential in the 1990s and the first decade of the 2000s, while the loss of administrative support jobs mostly affected women and was particularly severe in the 1980s and 1990s. Moreover, we find the rise in detachment was concentrated among older prime-age individuals and those without a college degree, and occurred less in places with high human capital.”

From a paper by Jaison R. Abel, and Richard Deitz:

“We develop a measure of chronic joblessness among prime-age men and women in the United Statestermed the detachment rate-that identifies those who have been out of the labor force for more than a year. We show that the detachment rate more than doubled for men since the early 1980s and rose by a quarter for women since 2000, though it is consistently considerably higher for women than men.

Read the full article…

Posted by at 4:44 PM

Labels: Inclusive Growth

Power and inequality: determinants of income inequality in rich capitalist democracies, 1960 to 2019

From a paper by Jordan Rosenblum, Lane Kenworthy, and Mikael Nygård:

“We explore the link between the distribution of power and income inequality in rich capitalist democracies since 1960. We advance understanding of the impact of government ideology, a key indicator of the distribution of power, in two ways. First, previous research has tended to focus on government ideology at the country level. We make use of party manifesto data to introduce a novel global ideology measure that captures a global shift rightward since 1980, often referred to as the rise of neoliberalism. Second, for country-level party ideology, we use party manifesto data to capture changes over time. We find that this time-varying operationalization of party ideology is more strongly linked to income inequality than the standard expert-survey operationalization that assumes party ideology remains constant. In line with theoretical expectations derived from prior research, our findings show that a more rightward distribution of power at both the country and the global level is associated with increased income inequality within countries.”

From a paper by Jordan Rosenblum, Lane Kenworthy, and Mikael Nygård:

“We explore the link between the distribution of power and income inequality in rich capitalist democracies since 1960. We advance understanding of the impact of government ideology, a key indicator of the distribution of power, in two ways. First, previous research has tended to focus on government ideology at the country level. We make use of party manifesto data to introduce a novel global ideology measure that captures a global shift rightward since 1980,

Read the full article…

Posted by at 4:43 PM

Labels: Inclusive Growth

Forecasting Türkiye Local Inflation With Global Factors

From a paper by Oguzhan Cepni, Abdullah Kazdal, Muhammed Enes Olgun, and Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz:

“This paper investigates whether inflation forecasting in emerging economies can be improved with the inclusion of a global inflation component. Focusing on the headline inflation rate of Türkiye, we implement a forecasting exercise using a large dataset describing domestic macroeconomic as well as global inflation dynamics. Our factor-augmented predictive regression results show that incorporating global inflation factors derived from other emerging markets’ inflation rates enhances forecasting accuracy of the local headline inflation rate. The results are robust to using alternative dimension-reduction methods, including the elastic net technique. Our findings contribute to the current methodological toolkit available to policymakers for predicting inflation in an emerging market context.”

From a paper by Oguzhan Cepni, Abdullah Kazdal, Muhammed Enes Olgun, and Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz:

“This paper investigates whether inflation forecasting in emerging economies can be improved with the inclusion of a global inflation component. Focusing on the headline inflation rate of Türkiye, we implement a forecasting exercise using a large dataset describing domestic macroeconomic as well as global inflation dynamics. Our factor-augmented predictive regression results show that incorporating global inflation factors derived from other emerging markets’

Read the full article…

Posted by at 4:42 PM

Labels: Forecasting Forum

Home Older Posts

Subscribe to: Posts