Inclusive Growth

Global Housing Watch

Forecasting Forum

Energy & Climate Change

Housing View – June 14, 2024

On cross-country:

  • Surging property prices: When will Europe’s cities become affordable again? – The Conversation
  • As homeownership falls, “generation rent” needs a policy leg up – The Economist


Working papers and conferences:

  • The euro, housing policies, and sports venues – Journal of Economic Perspectives
  • The Effects of Short-Term Rental Regulation: Insights from Chicago – NBER
  • Homeowners Insurance and Housing Prices – SSRN


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • House Price Appreciation by State and Metro Area: The First Quarter of 2024 – NAHB
  • Expert Panel Sees Home Price Growth Easing in 2024 and 2025 as Home Listings Trend Upward – Fannie Mae   
  • Homebuying Sentiment Hits New Survey Low. Citing Unaffordability, 86% of Consumers Say It’s a Bad Time to Buy a Home – Fannie Mae
  • Housing Costs Cool, but Remain a Source of Concern. Housing costs were up 5.4 percent in May from a year earlier, the smallest increase in more than two years. But monthly progress has slowed. – New York Times
  • Mortgage Rates Remained Elevated in May – NAHB
  • Mortgage Rates Fall Under 7% as Buyers Face a ‘Bittersweet Market’ – Realtor.com
  • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in May. Early Reports Suggest NAR reported Sales might be up slightly Year-over-year Calculated Risk
  • 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May – Calculated Risk
  • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2024 – Calculated Risk
  • Housing market inventory in Texas is back above pre-pandemic levels. These states could be next. ResiClub analyzed the latest inventory data from Realtor.com. Here’s what it shows about shifts in the housing market. – Fast Company
  • Americans have never felt worse about the housing market. A whopping 86% of consumers said it’s a bad time to buy a home, according to a new Fannie Mae survey – Quartz
  • Q1 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO. REO: lender Real Estate Owned – Calculated Risk
  • Pandemic Boomtown Housing Prices Slow but Retain Most of Their Gains – CoreLogic
  • Housing Markets on Florida’s West Coast Are Cooling Faster Than Anywhere Else in the U.S., With Supply Rising and Demand Falling – Redfin 
  • New York City Might Finally Curb Broker Fees for Renters. A majority of the City Council supports a bill that would transfer the cost of most broker fees from renters to landlords. – New York Times
  • Here’s How Many Home Sales Were ‘Lost’ by the Mortgage Rate Lock-In Effect – Realtor.com
  • Higher Risk of Housing Market Slowdown Continues in California, New Jersey, and Illinois – ATTOM


On the US—other developments:    

  • Hidden Costs of Homeownership For a Typical Single-Family Home Total Over $18,000 Per Year. Average costs of owning and maintaining a home have risen 26% since 2020 – Bankrate  
  • Homeownership Costs in US Jumped 26% Since Pandemic Began. Bills for taxes, insurance, energy and maintenance soared. Typical buyers spending $300 a month more than in March 2020 – Bloomberg
  • High Housing Costs Are Consuming Household Incomes – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
  • More than 900 Housing Professionals Urge Congress to Act on Affordability Crisis NAHB
  • How Will the Economy Impact Housing for the Rest of 2024? – NAHB
  • Best and Worst Metro Areas to Be a First-Time Homebuyer – AEI
  • Industrial Realignment. Prologis (PLD) on the Trends Shaping the Industrial Real Estate Market, Labor Issues, and “The Gundo Bros” – Lewis Enterprises
  • CRE in Trouble – Apollo
  • The Pain in Real Estate Continues – Apollo
  • Homes have popped up on the National Mall – showing they can be built fast and cheap – NPR
  • Week in Review. Week of June 3 — Payrolls pop, Sentiment sags – Home Economics
  • Secret #25 – The Black Home Ownership Rate is Higher Today in the South than in the North – Real Estate Decoded 
  • Secret #26 – The Black Home Ownership Rate Is NOT Getting Any Closer to the White Home Ownership Rate! – Real Estate Decoded
  • Secret #29 – For Mortgages, “Affordable” is Code for “Higher-Foreclosure” – Real Estate Decoded
  • The housing market crisis shows that the tool the Fed is using to lower inflation is doing the exact opposite, former White House adviser says – Yahoo Finance
  • Can Your Town Solve the Housing Crisis? In Cincinnati, planners, developers and designers connected to the New Urbanism and Strong Towns movements gathered to find bottom-up ways to build more homes. – Bloomberg
  • She Made an Offer on a Condo. Then the Seller Learned She Was Black. A Black woman claims a white homeowner tried to pull out of a sale because of her race. – New York Times


On China:

  • China accelerates policy support rollout amid mixed data. Key economic indicators are mixed in China and, in fact, were mostly weaker than expected last month. So, policymakers are now stepping up support for the property sector in particular – ING
  • China’s Homeowners and Banks Are Trapped in a Mortgage Mess. Lenders said to raise negative equity concerns with regulators. Homeowners mull defaulting on debt, selling or delaying plans – Bloomberg
  • China’s Call for ‘Open Mind’ Spurs Hope of New Housing Measures – Bloomberg
  • Can China Turn Its Property Glut Into Affordable Housing? A previous plan to build 36 million homes led to widespread corruption. – Foreign Policy
  • China central bank promotes relending to speed up sales of housing stock – Reuters  


On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Brisbane to introduce Airbnb permits for property owners amid housing crisis crackdown. Mayor Adrian Schrinner says property owners would now need appropriate planning approvals, body corporate support and a 24-7 property manager for short-term rentals – The Guardian
  • [Australia] Australian capital city rents have biggest monthly fall in over four years but crisis ‘far from over’. Sydney house rents still nation’s highest but an expected rise in vacancy rates this winter could provide some relief to tenants, expert says – The Guardian
  • [Greece] Greece’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s Identity Crisis Fuels $270 Billion Property Wipeout. The five-year property downturn is emblematic of a steady loss of faith in the city’s status as Asia’s premier financial hub. – Bloomberg
  • [Mexico] Mexico’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
  • [Netherlands] Home building, not rent cuts, holds the key to solving Netherlands’ housing shortages. The Dutch government plans to improve housing affordability for middle-income earners by expanding existing rent regulations and introducing a rule that two-thirds of housing construction must be affordable. However, these two policies are expected to slow down housing production, which will ultimately increase the housing shortage – ING
  • [Sweden] How an American Dream of Housing Became a Reality in Sweden. The U.S. once looked to modular construction as an efficient way to build lots of housing at scale, but Sweden picked up the idea and put it into practice – New York Times
  • [United Kingdom] UK Rents Rise at the Slowest Pace Since 2021 as Demand Eases. Average cost of renting still higher than before the pandemic. Low investment in new lets means supply shortage will persist – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices stabilise as rising wages and consumer confidence steady market. Average price of a home dipped by 0.1%, says Halifax, bringing cost of typical property down to £288,688 – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] Social rent homes in England fall by more than quarter of a million in decade. Charities have called on all political parties to address the ‘shameful record’ on social housing and build more homes – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] UK mortgages in arrears hit near 8-year high. Bank of England data points to continuing impact of high borrowing costs on households – FT
  • [United Kingdom] Sunak promises to relaunch Help to Buy scheme – BBC
  • [United Kingdom] Conservative manifesto puts home ownership up top – but ignores housing affordability – The Conversation
  • [United Kingdom] UK Housing Market Loses Momentum as Interest-Rate Cut Hopes Diminish. RICS says gauge of new buyer demand drops to six-month low. Housing market emerging as key battleground in July 4 election – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] A House Price Boon for the Next UK Government. ‘Higher-for-longer’ interest rates plus rising wages mean the affordability problem may solve itself. – Bloomberg

On cross-country:

  • Surging property prices: When will Europe’s cities become affordable again? – The Conversation
  • As homeownership falls, “generation rent” needs a policy leg up – The Economist

Working papers and conferences:

  • The euro, housing policies, and sports venues – Journal of Economic Perspectives
  • The Effects of Short-Term Rental Regulation: Insights from Chicago – NBER
  • Homeowners Insurance and Housing Prices – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices,

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Housing View – June 7, 2024

On cross-country:

  • Demographia International Housing Affordability—2024 Edition – Demographia
  • Secret #17 – U.S. Housing Policies Almost Moved Toward Vienna or Singapore in the 1960s – Real Estate Decoded


Working papers and conferences:

  • The Evolving Structure of Housing Markets: Institutional Investors and Their Influential Role During the Great Recession – Philadelphia Fed
  • Temperatures and Search: Evidence From the Housing Market – SSRN
  • The Capitalization of Energy Labels into House Prices. Evidence from Italy – SSRN


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • US Homebuyers Start to Revolt Over Steep Prices – Bloomberg
  • Developers Sit on Empty Lots After Historic Apartment Boom. Higher interest rates and flattening rents scuttle projects – Wall Street Journal
  • Final Look at Local Housing Markets in April and a Look Ahead to May Sales – Calculated Risk
  • Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in April; Up 6.5% Year-over-year. Over the last 3 months, the seasonal adjusted index has increased at a 3.7% annual rate – Calculated Risk
  • Private Residential Construction Spending Edges Up in April – NAHB
  • These US cities are due for a housing price drop, real estate analysts find – The Hill
  • Housing Vacancies and Homeownership – US Census
  • Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
  • Renters Are Staying Longer Amid Rising Housing Costs And High Mortgage Rates – Yahoo Finance
  • May 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
  • Single-Family and Multifamily Production Headed in Opposite Directions Across Geographies – NAHB
  • US Home Price Insights – June 2024 – CoreLogic


On the US—other developments:    

  • What’s actually happening in the housing market, according to top housing economist Ali Wolf. There’s been a major shift in the market, says housing economist Ali Wolf—and the big builders are dominating. – Fast Company
  • The Week in Review. Week of May 27th — Rents Retreat as Prices Peak – Home Economics
  • Secret #16 – Economic Fundamentals Explain Less Than Half of House Price Changes – Real Estate Decoded
  • Secret #19 – Worse Than Redlining. To Be Pre-Approved for FHA Mortgages, FHA Required New Home Builders to Ban ALL Sales to Blacks – Real Estate Decoded
  • What Is Fair Housing? There are laws to protect people from discrimination in buying, renting and living in their homes. – New York Times
  • Don’t Give Up, Buyers: Real Estate Today Is Still a Seller’s Market, but Moving Toward Balance – Realtor.com
  • Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in April, Multi-family Increased Slightly. CoreLogic: “U.S. delinquency rate increased from a year earlier in March, driven by an uptick in early-stage delinquencies” – Calculated Risk 
  • Residential Construction AD&C Lending Declines – NAHB
  • Four Years After Covid: Downtown Recovery Remains Weak – Apollo
  • Secret #20 – From 1940 to 1970 the Black Home Ownership Rate Increased More in the South than the North – Real Estate Decoded
  • The Housing Policy Implications of Taylor Swift – Reason
  • Essay on “How Constitutional Litigation Can Help End Exclusionary Zoning” – Reason
  • How the Housing Market is Changing in Cities Gaining the Most New Neighbors – Zillow
  • Rebuilding the Construction Trades Workforce – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
  • New York’s housing crunch collides with development skeptics. Neighborhoods that have maintained a suburban feel are fighting Adams’ plan to grow the city’s housing supply. – Politico


On China:

  • China’s Biggest Cities See Housing Market Pick Up After Easing. Shanghai, Shenzhen buyers show interest in new and used homes. Analysts, investors are optimistic worst of slump may be over – Bloomberg
  • All the Tools the PBOC Has to Support China’s Property Sector. Focus of latest relending program is excess housing inventory. Central bank programs can be expanded if needed: analysts – Bloomberg
  • China needs to inject US$276 billion into property market to stabilise prices: Goldman Sachs. The funding need is based on the 20 trillion yuan inventory the US investment bank estimates exists in the 80 mainland Chinese cities it tracks. ‘So far, the scale of policy support is not sufficient to move the needle’, the bank says – South China Morning Post
  • Guess Who’s Angry at China’s Real Estate Bailout: Homeowners. China has relaxed or eliminated measures on home buying to spur new purchases. This has made a vocal constituency of existing homeowners very unhappy. – New York Times


On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Australia’s Home Price Gains Quicken With Sydney at Record High – Bloomberg
  • [Australia] Australia home prices continue to climb, Sydney back at record high – Reuters
  • [Australia] Australian Home Loans Jump as Rental Yields Lure Investors. Home loans to investors climbed 36.1% in April from a year ago. Gross rental yield highest since Aug 2019, CoreLogic data show – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Could a housing revolution transform Canadian cities? – BBC 
  • [India] India’s home prices to rise steadily, affordable housing supply to lag demand: Reuters poll – Reuters
  • [Netherlands] The Netherland’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
  • [Portugal] Portugal to use golden visa scheme to help migrants, build affordable homes – Reuters
  • [Singapore] Singapore’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
  • [Ukraine] Development of mortgages in Ukraine – VoxEU
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices return to growth as market ‘shows signs of resilience’. Rate more than doubles to 1.3% in May and average property price rises to £264,249, Nationwide says – The Guardian

On cross-country:

  • Demographia International Housing Affordability—2024 Edition – Demographia
  • Secret #17 – U.S. Housing Policies Almost Moved Toward Vienna or Singapore in the 1960s – Real Estate Decoded

Working papers and conferences:

  • The Evolving Structure of Housing Markets: Institutional Investors and Their Influential Role During the Great Recession – Philadelphia Fed
  • Temperatures and Search: Evidence From the Housing Market – SSRN
  • The Capitalization of Energy Labels into House Prices.

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Housing View – May 31, 2024

On cross-country:

  • BIS residential property price statistics, Q4 2023 – BIS
  • Housing and credit access – European Central Bank
  • Is your rent ever going to fall? Too often politicians tout awful solutions for helping tenants – The Economist


Working papers and conferences:

  • 2024 AREUEA National Conference on May 29 – AREUEA
  • Inflation and the Housing Market. Professor Susan Wachter looks at ongoing issues in the housing market and how they connect to inflation. – Wharton
  • Persistence of house-price growth highlights geographic, credit factors – Dallas Fed
  • Houston, you have a problem: How large cities accommodate more housing – Real Estate Economics
  • Tracking Our Footprint: CO2 Emissions from US Single-Family Homes – FHFA
  • Housing Price Volatility in China: A Pervasive Pattern with Geographic Disparity – SSRN
  • Up or Out: The Effects of Washington, DC’s Height of Buildings Act – SSRN


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Mortgages Stuck Around 7% Force Rapid Rethink of American Dream. Rates have defied expectations to come down, upending major life plans in the process. – Bloomberg
  • US Mortgage Rates at 7% Reshape Housing Market – Bloomberg
  • ‘Not Gonna Be Pretty:’ Covid-Era Homebuyers Face Huge Rate Jump. Adjustable-rate mortgages are due to reset for many borrowers. Some 70% of holders are worried about payments, survey finds – Bloomberg 
  • US labor market remains strong; housing market losing momentum – Reuters
  • Home prices stay elevated as inventory lags: Redfin – Yahoo Finance
  • Watch Months-of-Supply! – Calculated Risk
  • Why a California Plan to Build More Homes Is Failing. Only a few dozen people have built housing under a law allowing them to construct duplexes alongside single-family houses – Wall Street Journal
  • Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 6.5% year-over-year in March. FHFA: House Prices Increased 0.1% in March, up 6.6% YoY – Calculated Risk
  • Home Price Growth Slows in March – NAHB
  • Home Prices Just Hit a New Record High, and These Cities Are Leading the Pack – Realtor.com
  • S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index—Home Prices 6.5% in March – Realtor.com
  • US CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index Annual Growth Flattens at 6.5% in March, While Seasonal Price Gains Surge. Monthly appreciation in March continued to heat up beyond the typical seasonal uptick, pushing prices up by 1.3% – CoreLogic
  • April 2024 Rental Report: Median Asking Rents Continue To Drop – Realtor.com
  • Skyrocketing rents and home prices may be pivotal in the 2024 election. Skyrocketing rents and home prices are a dire issue for voters in swing states. – Washington Post
  • Mortgage applications dropped as the housing market keeps getting uglier. Mortgage rates ticked up again last week, putting a damper on refinancing and purchase applications – Quartz


On the US—other developments:    

  • US Housing Outlook: Recovery Continues – Apollo
  • A New Age of Construction Materials. Meet the companies pioneering new construction materials promising benefits on cost, climate, and capabilities – Thesis Driven
  • Thousands Of U.S. Homes Foreclosed In April As Market Shows Mixed Recovery Signs – Yahoo Finance
  • Secret #10 – The Economics of Houses are Different Real Estate Decoded
  • Secret #11 – The Supply of Houses Grows More Slowly than the Supply of Gold – Real Estate Decoded
  • Secret #14 – Higher House Prices Can INCREASE Current Demand. The Ignored Economic Fundamental – Price Expectations – Real Estate Decoded
  • Secret #15 – More Reasons Why House Prices Can Increase Surprisingly Fast – Real Estate Decoded
  • The Week in Review. Week of May 20th — Sales Stumble, Tennis Tribulations – Home Economics
  • Black mortgage applicants are denied more than twice as much as white applicants. 24% of applications from Black borrowers are denied, a Zillow report found – Quartz


On China:

  • China Has a Plan for Its Housing Crisis. Here’s Why It’s Not Enough. A new approach by China’s top leaders is bold but pales against the problem: a vast number of empty apartments no one wants to buy. – New York Times
  • China’s middle class still jittery about spending – especially on property, survey finds – South China Morning Post
  • China’s property stimulus raises risks for banks in smaller cities, S&P Global says – Reuters
  • China’s Property Rescue to Deliver Modest GDP Boost, Survey Shows. Seven of 12 economists see up to 0.3 ppt growth lift this year. Analysts expect cut to reserve requirement ratio by end-June – Bloomberg


On other countries:  

  • [Australia] House prices and rents hit record highs in regional Australia – rising faster than in capital cities. Batemans Bay, Bunbury and the Sunshine Coast post biggest quarterly rental increases – The Guardian
  • [Indonesia] Insights into Indonesia’s Premium Residential Market: Trends and Opportunities – Knight Frank
  • [New Zealand] House prices won’t return to 2021 peak until after 2029, forecaster says – RNZ
  • [New Zealand] RBNZ to Introduce Mortgage Lending Restrictions as Debt, Home Prices Climb. The policy is aimed at ensuring that house prices remain at sustainable levels – Wall Street Journal
  • [Portugal] Portugal’s house price growth continues, despite weak demand – Global Property Guide
  • [Singapore] The Architect Who Made Singapore’s Public Housing the Envy of the World. With a focus on affordability, community, convenience and light, Liu Thai Ker replaced squalid slums with spacious high-rises. A recent spike in some sale prices, however, has saddened him. – New York Times
  • [Spain] Britain’s Madrid Leads European House Price Gains With Double-Digit Surge. Prices jumped almost 11% in April compared with a year earlier. Property shortage is particularly acute in the Spanish city – Bloomberg
  • [Spain] Spain’s dysfunctional housing market finally offers some opportunity. People desire homes but financing conditions are stunting demand and supply – FT
  • [South Africa] ‘People have died on the waiting lists’: South Africa’s housing crisis casts a shadow over election. The hopes raised by the ANC coming to power in 1994 have, 30 years on, been dashed for millions still without a decent roof over their heads – The Guardian
  • [United Arab Emirates] UAE’s housing market growth accelerating – Global Property Guide
  • [United Kingdom] House price growth in rural areas outstrips towns in Great Britain. Countryside semis are strongest-performing property type, with average price up 22% over five years – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] Rent controls will not fix Britain’s housing crisis. Addressing property taxes that favour owner-occupation would be more productive – FT
  • [United Kingdom] Airbnb and Booking.com allowing illegal social housing sublets, say English councils. Social housing providers claim platforms are refusing to cooperate with requests to remove illegally listed holiday lets – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] Homeownership for Young Britons Rebounds to Highest Since 2010. IFS analysis shows 6 percentage-point recovery since 2015. But ownership rates still well below those at start of century – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Homeownership for young adults has recovered to its 2010 level – Institute for Fiscal Studies
  • [United Kingdom] UK Housing and Mortgage Affordability Hits Lowest Point in 2023 – Fitch Ratings

On cross-country:

  • BIS residential property price statistics, Q4 2023 – BIS
  • Housing and credit access – European Central Bank
  • Is your rent ever going to fall? Too often politicians tout awful solutions for helping tenants – The Economist

Working papers and conferences:

  • 2024 AREUEA National Conference on May 29 – AREUEA
  • Inflation and the Housing Market.

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Housing View – May 24, 2024

Working papers and conferences:

  • Mortgage switching through the turning of the interest rate cycle – Central Bank of Ireland
  • Time-Varying Persistence of House Price Growth: The Role of Expectations and Credit Supply – SSRN


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • U.S. Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – May 2024 – Freddie Mac
  • Could Housing Inflation Become a Problem Again? – Apollo
  • MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q1 2024 – Calculated Risk
  • New Construction Activity Picked Up 5.7% in April – Realtor.com
  • Housing Market Update: Mortgages Rates Dip Below 7% For First Time in 5 Weeks, Giving Buyers Some Much-Needed Relief – Redfin
  • US Housing Starts, Permits Fall Short as Mortgage Rates Rise. New home construction increased in April after down revisions. Proxy for future building fell to lowest since the end of 2022 – Bloomberg
  • Renting Forever and Trying to Create a Strong Financial Future. Either by choice or because they are priced out of the market, many people plan to never stop renting. Building wealth without home equity requires a different mind-set. – New York Times
  • 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in April; California Home Sales Up 4.4% YoY in April – Calculated Risk
  • NYC Rents Are So High That Only 5% Are Affordable for the Average Salary. Essential workers hit hardest by New York City’s housing affordability crisis – Bloomberg
  • Multifamily Housing Supply and Rents: Feast Today, Famine Tomorrow? – Richmond Fed
  • Existing Home Sales Recede in April – NAHB
  • Home Sales Fell Again in April After High Mortgage Rates Damped Activity. Sales of previously owned homes decreased 1.9% from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.14 million – Wall Street Journal
  • Opportunity Zone Home Prices Mixed but Still Keeping Up with Nationwide Price Trends – ATTOM
  • NAHB/Wells Fargo Debut New Cost of Housing Index – NAHB  


On the US—other developments:    

  • TLDR: The Future of Homeownership. Talking you through my analysis – Home Economics
  • Secret #2 – The Real Reason House Prices Skyrocketed After Covid. What the Real Estate Industry Won’t Tell You – Real Estate Decoded
  • Secret #3 – For Black Home Ownership, “Affordable” Housing Policies Have Been Worse Than Jim Crow – Real Estate Decoded
  • Secret #4 – The U.S. Home Ownership Rate Increased the Fastest When Mortgages Were 20 Years Long and Down Payments Were 20% – Real Estate Decoded
  • Secret #5 – The Home Ownership Boom After World War 2 was Due, in Part, to New Houses Becoming a Lot Smaller – Real Estate Decoded
  • Keeping What Works: How the GSEs are Protecting Homeowners, Taxpayers, and the Industry – Fannie Mae
  • New Single-Family Home Size Decline Continues – NAHB
  • Down Payment Share Reaches Q1 High, but Down Payments Fall From Historical Peak – Realtor.com
  • Want affordable housing? Take the chassis off manufactured houses. And don’t call them mobile homes. – Washington Post
  • Displaced by climate disasters, ageing Americans struggle to find housing. Older adults face a shortage of affordable and accessible homes as climate change worsens – The Guardian


On China:

  • The property firm that could break China’s back. If Vanke collapses, so might confidence in the state’s management of the economy – The Economist
  • China goes on a $1 trln apartment-buying spree – Reuters
  • China Is Finally Getting Serious About a Housing Rescue. Beijing announces plan to clear backlog of unsold homes, but questions remain over scale and financing – Wall Street Journal
  • China Attempts to End Property Crisis With Broad Rescue Package. Beijing removes floor on mortgages rates, lowers down-payment. China unleashes $42 billion cheap funding to buy unsold homes – Bloomberg
  • China unveils package to boost property sector. Central bank eases lending requirements and lowers down-payments to ease years-long slowdown – FT  
  • China Home Prices Fall at Faster Pace Despite Revival Efforts. Month-on-month declines in April were steepest in a decade. Government is seeking to address excess housing inventories – Bloomberg
  • China Says It Will Start Buying Apartments as Housing Slump Worsens. Signaling growing alarm, policymakers ramped up efforts to stem a continued decline in real estate values. – New York Times
  • China’s Housing Crash Could Set Back Millions of Promising Careers – Yahoo Finance 
  • Too Big or Not Enough? China Housing Bailout Treads a Fine Line. Beijing will try to provide enough support to absorb unsold apartments while not sparking a new bubble – Wall Street Journal
  • China’s rush to prop up housing sector aims to boost confidence ahead of third plenum: analysts. Coordinated steps from Beijing include billions of yuan in central bank funding, eased mortgage rules, and government purchase of unsold inventory. Measures show desire ‘to put a floor under the property slump’ before third plenum, but focus certain to be on industrial policy, observer says – South China Morning Post 
  • China’s Housing Rescue Too Small to End Crisis, Analysts Say. Funding amounts to a fraction of cost of outstanding inventory. Involving banks, local governments raises implementation doubt – Bloomberg
  • Will China’s fleet of policies to buoy housing sales stem slack tides in the property market? China has approved local governments and state enterprises to buy land and housing, part of an effort to get the property sector moving. Change in approach welcomed by analysts, but most said more ambitious moves will be necessary to turn the sector’s fortunes around – South China Morning Post 
  • A Tale of China’s Two Housing Markets. A few cities’ real estate sectors will bottom out this year, while others will struggle with empty flats for decades to come. – Bloomberg
  • Slump in China’s home prices, sales set to worsen this year – Reuters poll – Reuters 
  • China has finally unveiled its property rescue plan. Will it be enough? Beijing unlocks funding to buy up unsold housing but much more is needed to right stricken sector, analysts say – FT


On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Britain’s forgotten financial crisis. Britain had its fastest ever house price growth not in the 2020s but in the 1970s. Houses then were also getting smaller and worse. The problem was a lack of supply. – Work in Progress
  • [Canada] To Fight the Housing Crisis, Upzone and Build Public Housing. British Columbia’s housing crisis is among the worst in North America. Just as in other regions grappling with similar challenges, increasing density through upzoning for public and nonprofit housing is essential to tackle the crisis head-on. – Jacobin
  • [Germany] German home prices to fall 2% in 2024, supply to lag demand: Reuters poll – Reuters
  • [United Kingdom] The link between mortgage debt servicing burdens and arrears: is there a critical threshold? – Bank Underground

Working papers and conferences:

  • Mortgage switching through the turning of the interest rate cycle – Central Bank of Ireland
  • Time-Varying Persistence of House Price Growth: The Role of Expectations and Credit Supply – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • U.S. Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – May 2024 – Freddie Mac
  • Could Housing Inflation Become a Problem Again?

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Housing View – May 17, 2024

On cross-country:


Working papers and conferences:

  • Conference: CGFS- Banque de France Conference on macroprudential policies to mitigate housing market risks – Banque de France
  • Optimal Mortgage Refinancing with Inattention – NBER
  • Measuring Price Effects from Disasters Using Public Data: A Case Study of Hurricane Ian – Federal Housing Finance Agency


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • How rich homebuyers are avoiding high mortgage rates – Yahoo Finance
  • US Treasury’s Yellen says Congress should act on nonbank mortgage sector – Yahoo Finance 
  • 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in April. Inventory Continues to Surge in Florida – Calculated Risk
  • Single-Family Permits Up in March 2024 – NAHB
  • Home Prices Come Into Focus as Key Issue in the 2024 Election – Realtor.com 
  • The 5 states with the most housing inventory — and the 5 states with the least. The market has been difficult for people looking to relocate — but there are some places where people may find more luck than others – Quartz
  • The Fed’s housing market dilemma, as told by one chart. According to Zillow, national single-family rents rose 5% from March 2023 to March 2024, while multifamily rents rose 2.7%. – Fast Company
  • Higher Mortgage Rates Hammer Builder Confidence in May – NAHB
  • Sky-High Housing Costs Propel Construction of Rental Homes. Last year developers completed 39% more new rental homes than in 2022 – Wall Street Journal 
  • Are home prices still rising? See how prices have changed in your area. – Washington Post
  • Housing Costs Continue to Drive Price Gains – NAHB
  • American renters are scared renting will cost them for a long time. While renters are staying put amid high mortgage rates and soaring housing prices, many are eyeing homeownership – Quartz
  • Florida and Texas Show Signs of Home Prices Falling. Inventory of homes for sale in April exceeded typical prepandemic levels for this time of year in some metro areas in the two states – Wall Street Journal
  • Inside the Rent Inflation Measure That Economics Nerds Love to Hate. The Consumer Price Index inflation measure accounts for housing costs in a complicated way. There are reasons for it. – New York Times 


On the US—other developments:    

  • Democrats demand action from Biden on affordable housing. Twenty-eight progressive Democrats want the administration to finalize a HUD rule they say is critical to ensuring access to affordable housing for people of color. – Politico
  • Affordability Pyramid Shows 64.8 Million Households Cannot Buy a $250,000 Home – NAHB
  • Mansion Taxes Won’t Improve Housing Affordability. The policy is gaining in popularity, but the most direct way to address the high cost of housing is just to allow more to be built. – Bloomberg
  • Priced Out of Housing, Communities Take Development Into Their Own Hands. Across the country, neighborhood groups are uniting to fund mixed-use developments that meet housing and business demands, giving locals a place to live, work and learn new skills. – New York Times 
  • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2024 – Calculated Risk
  • Top Compromises Buyers Will Make to Reach Homeownership – NAHB
  • 2024 Top Rental Markets for Recent College Graduates – Realtor.com
  • Home Depot Posts a Sixth Sales Drop Amid Housing Market Woes – Bloomberg
  • Cities need more housing. ADUs can help. – Bloomberg
  • 76 Secrets – U.S. Home Ownership – 3 Solutions – Real Estate Decoded
  • Can Housing Foreclosures Remain Low as Consumer Debt Rises? – CoreLogic


On China:

  • China’s Housing Mess Finally Comes for Xi’s Own. Beijing is opening the door to a real estate bazooka. But only a few developers will benefit. – Bloomberg
  • Even a State-Linked Giant Can’t Escape China’s Real-Estate Crisis. China Vanke is under pressure but so far has managed to avoid a default – Wall Street Journal
  • Beijing’s ‘Digest’ Plan Signals Shift in China’s Housing Crisis. Analysts stressed it marks the first time in a long-running real-estate downturn that top officials have publicly broached the subject of excess apartment supply.  – Wall Street Journal
  • More Chinese Cities Move to Buy Up Housing Inventories. The moves follow similar plans by a half dozen cities in recent weeks – Wall Street Journal


On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Housing Market Cycles and Fundamentals – Reserve Bank of Australia
  • [Australia] RBA says ‘no quick fix’ to house prices – Financial Review
  • [Australia] RBA’s Hunter Sees No ‘Quick Fix’ to Australia’s Housing Crisis. Australia is facing its worst housing crisis in living memory. Central bank sees several potential avenues to fix the problem – Bloomberg  
  • [Canada] Canada’s Trudeau Backs Away From Tax Threat on Apartment Owners – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Canadian Homes for Sale Climb With Second-Biggest Jump on Record. Sales fell and new listings rose, loosening up the market. A measure of prices was flat in April from a month earlier – Bloomberg
  • [Egypt] Egypt’s real estate prices accelerating! Global Property Guide
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s housing market conditions continue to deteriorate – Global Property Guide
  • [Ireland] Ireland has a new group of voters: The homeless. In EU election, Dublin addresses a Continent-wide problem. – Politico
  • [Japan] The housing crisis in the U.S. is flipped upside down in Japan, where each home that’s occupied could be next to an empty one by 2033 – Yahoo Finance
  • [Netherlands] ‘What if we built our own?’: young Amsterdammers fight housing crisis with cooperative build. Group of university students awarded plot after city hall passes plan for 15 to 20 cooperative projects – The Guardian
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand Houses Take Longer to Sell as Buyers Bide Their Time. Median time to sell has risen after late-2023 decline. House prices fell a second straight month in April, REINZ says – Bloomberg
  • [Poland] Poland Forced to Rethink Cheap Mortgage Plan in a Housing Boom. Homebuyers worry that stimulus will push property out of reach. Government says its view is ‘evolving’ amid backlash – Bloomberg
  • [South Korea] South Korea tightens scrutiny to speed up real estate restructuring – Reuters  
  • [South Korea] Korea Unveils Steps to Quicken Project Finance Restructuring. FSC expects only 2-3% of project finance sites to be disposed. Sites late repaying debt by six months or more to be sold – Bloomberg
  • [Sweden] Swedes’ Housing Optimism Grows as Riksbank Cuts and Prices Rise – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Rise in ultra-long mortgages ‘poses risk to UK retirement prospects’. Former pensions minister says data shows buyers increasingly forced to accept terms that stretch into state pension age – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] ‘It will take two decades to fix the housing crisis’: The developer reshaping south London – The Guardian

On cross-country:

Working papers and conferences:

  • Conference: CGFS- Banque de France Conference on macroprudential policies to mitigate housing market risks – Banque de France
  • Optimal Mortgage Refinancing with Inattention – NBER
  • Measuring Price Effects from Disasters Using Public Data: A Case Study of Hurricane Ian – Federal Housing Finance Agency

On the US—developments on house prices,

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Home Older Posts

Subscribe to: Posts