The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Samantha Coccia & Alberto Russo:

“This paper reviews the transmission channels of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy, including income composition, earnings heterogeneity, interest rate exposure, savings redistribution, inflation tax, portfolio composition, and household debt, with a focus on their impact on income and wealth inequality. The survey highlights the crucial role of household heterogeneity in shaping the transmission of monetary policy and its differential effects on income and wealth distribution. These effects operate through several factors, including the primary source of income, employment status, net debtor or net saver positions, differences in portfolio composition, and debt levels. The paper also discusses the shadow banking sector to illustrate the relationship between monetary policy and inequality in a complex financial system. Overall, the paper provides policymakers with a guide to the multifaceted nature of the monetary policy–inequality nexus, given the pervasiveness of household heterogeneity. It also suggests avenues for further research on the combined effects of different transmission channels using macroeconomic models suited to this purpose, such as agent-based models (ABM) with heterogeneous interacting agents.”

On cross-country:

• Global real estate outlook – Edition June 2026. Middle East conflict is creating uncertainty – UBS

Working papers and conferences:  

• What 30 Million Applications Reveal about Mortgage Denial Thresholds – St. Louis Fed
• Measuring Housing Quality Using Revealed Preference: A Geographic PageRank Approach – NBER
• The pros and cons of sectoral macroprudential policy – National Bank of Belgium
• Felt but Unseen: The Lesser-Known Forces Influencing Home Prices – Philadelphia Fed

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Aussie home prices set for weakest growth in four years as rates bite – Reuters
• [Australia] Australian housing was already cooling before the budget – but how cold it gets depends on two key factors – The Guardian
• [Australia] Australia tries to fix its housing crisis. Will it work? Anthony Albanese is aiming to undo decades of tax incentives and make property more affordable for younger buyers – FT
• [Australia] For those shedding a tear over house prices falling, these numbers may change your mind. An average home would cost $595,500 now if prices were the same relative to income as before John Howard turned the market into an investor casino – The Guardian
• [Australia] Can a correction fix Australia’s housing market? Anthony Albanese is aiming to undo decades of tax incentives and make property more affordable for younger buyers – FT

On other countries:  

• [Canada] How the Squamish built Senakw. Just outside downtown Vancouver, the Squamish Nation is building one of the most ambitious and unusual housing developments in the world and getting rich in the process. – Work in Progress Newsletter
• [China] China’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Cyprus] Cyprus’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Germany] Germany’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Iran] Tehran property prices pick up as gold loses shine. Long-stagnant housing market has seen an unexpected revival as Iranians seek refuge from rampant inflation – FT
• [Netherlands] How ING uses agentic AI to speed up mortgage decisions – ING
• [Netherlands] The Netherlands’ Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Spain] A 20% Bruselas advierte a España de que los altos precios de la vivienda dificultan la movilidad de los trabajadores y la competitividad de la Economía. La Comisión reclama a los Gobiernos “una acción decisiva” ante un problema que “socavará la cohesión social” – El Pais
• [Switzerland] Switzerland Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall for third successive month amid Iran war uncertainty. Unexpected monthly drop of 0.1% in May leaves price of typical home at £298,806, says lender Halifax – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Housing Market Update – June 2026 – Savills
• [United Kingdom] Homeowners are getting used to the UK’s perma-crisis. Households appear to have adapted to a constant state of flux – FT

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Mortgage Rates Increase Further as Inflation Remains Elevated – NAHB
• Mortgage Applications Retreat in May, with ARMs Gaining Share – NAHB
• June ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Annual home price growth was 1.0% in mid-May” – Calculated Risk
• ‘Rent now, pay later’ loans target US consumers squeezed by housing costs. Demand for short-term financing expands into rental market amid deepening affordability crisis – FT
• Rent Is So High, New Yorkers Are Living With Nuns. Convent boarding houses are affordable and clean, but there are rules: curfews, chores and sometimes nuns who vet boyfriends. – Wall Street Journal

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:     

• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in May – Calculated Risk
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.17 million SAAR in May. Median House Prices Increased 1.3% Year-over-Year – Calculated Risk
• May Home Sales Notched Their Biggest Rise This Year. Easing mortgage rates and an increase in inventory lured back buyers, boosting sales 3.2% for the month – Wall Street Journal
• Home Building Regulatory Cost Burdens Increased 40% from 2021 to 2026 – NAHB
• The US Is Building More Housing Near Transit, But Not Nearly Enough. Since the 1980s, many cities have embraced transit-oriented development policies to encourage more walkable neighborhoods. A new analysis shows how far they’ve come. – Bloomberg

On other developments:    

• Homelessness Declines but Remains Near Record High – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• A housing market on the precipice: New insights from the DMV Monitor – Brookings
• May 2026 Monthly Housing Report: Sellers Are Meeting the Market—and Buyers Are Showing Up – Realtor.com
• In These Cities, the Housing Market Runs on Generational Wealth – Realtor.com
• Addressing the Housing Affordability Crisis Requires Increasing Housing Supply and Expanding Rental Assistance – Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
• Foreclosure Filings Dip Month-Over-Month While Annual Trend Continues Upward – ATTOM
• These Young Politicians Want to Fix America’s Housing Problems. A cohort of young Millennial and Gen Z politicians have centered their campaigns this year on housing costs, and the divide is more generational than partisan. – New York Times

From a paper by Edson Roberto Vieira, Andréa Freire de Lucena, Antônio Marcos de Queiroz, Flávia Rezende Campos, and Vitor Pereira Salgado:

“This study aims to analyze the main benefits of Brazils potential accession to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), drawing on the experiences of Chile and Mexico. The Synthetic Control Method (SCM) will be employed, which involves constructing a counterfactual for an economy exposed to an intervention (OECD membership) by replicating the pre-intervention economic behavior of a comparable economy. The results indicate that OECD accession did not generate a significant difference in the economic performance of Chile and Mexico, which may discourage Brazil from adopting measures to pursue OECD membership.”

From a paper by Martin Boďa, Mariana Považanová, and Michaela Tichá:

“For 38 OECD countries during the period 1991–2022, the paper estimates time-varying trajectories of unemployment-based and employment-based Okun coefficients and studies their synchronicity. Schlicht’s VC method is utilized to estimate Okun coefficients and time-series clustering is applied to identify groups of economies with synchronous business cycle characteristics. The findings defy two prevalent beliefs of Okun’s law since many countries display constant or almost constant trajectories of the (un)employment-output sensitivity, and for many countries Okun’s law need not be stronger in a downturn. Furthermore, countries do not synchronize in their business cycle dynamics as shown in disparate trajectories of Okun coefficients, which argues against a single one-size-fits-all stabilization policy, certainly in less homogeneous economic blocks. Finally, there is strong evidence for labour market flows into and outside the labour force that are associated with informal sector size and translated into lesser sensitivity of official labour market variables across the business cycle.”