The Unassuming Economist

On cross-country:

• The global housing affordability crisis – Axios
• European banks set for slowest mortgage lending growth in decade. Record interest rates have sent a chill through the market – FT

Working papers and conferences:

• House price responses to monetary policy surprises: evidence from US listings data – BIS
• Insurers Monitor Shocks to Collateral: Micro Evidence from Mortgage-backed Securities – CEPR
• Racial Differences in the Total Rate of Return on Owner-Occupied Housing – NBER
• The Impact of Real Estate Agents’ Expertise on House Prices and TOM – SSRN
• Upzoning with Strings Attached: Evidence from Seattle’s Affordable Housing Mandate – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Refinancing Activity Jumped in August as Mortgage Rates Declined – NAHB
• The best tool to address the housing crisis is sitting within Fannie Mae. Make it easier to get a mortgage. – Washington Post
• Are Mortgage Rates Dropping?: Explaining What’s Happening to Interest Rates in 2024 – Redfin
• National Housing Survey. Mortgage Rate Optimism Spikes, but Homebuying Pessimism Persists – Fannie Mae
• Home Purchase Sentiment Improves Slightly as Mortgage Rates Fall in August – Realtor.com
• How to fix the housing market. High prices usually boost supply, but not in housing. What’s wrong? – FT
• NYC’s rules one year later: Higher prices for travelers, no housing impact – Airbnb  
• Housing market shift: This interactive map shows where sellers—or buyers—have more power. Zillow’s Market Heat Index shows whether a metro-area housing market is a buyer’s or seller’s market. – Fast Company
• House Price Weekend: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 5.4% year-over-year in June. FHFA House Price Index Declined Slightly month-over-month in June – Calculated Risk
• August 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• New Home Sales Increased to 739,000 Annual Rate in July – Calculated Risk
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in August. Early Reports Suggest First YoY Sales Increase in 3 Years – Calculated Risk
• Event: Reforming Land Use Regulation to Encourage Housing Supply on October 1. A conversation at the Minneapolis Fed on changes made and lessons learned in designing policies that influence housing production – Minneapolis Fed
• A New York oasis lies in path of city’s push to build housing – Reuters
• August 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• New Review Spotlights the Unintended Consequences of Rent Control – NAHB
• Second Home Areas Gaining Home Building Market Share – NAHB
• ICE Mortgage Monitor: House Price Growth Slows, Inventory Surges in Florida and Texas – NAHB
• US Home Price Insights – September 2024 – CoreLogic
• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• America’s Hottest Housing Market Has Ranked No. 1 a Record 29 Times – Realtor.com
• Rent, utilities rose faster than home values for first time in a decade. New data from the 2023 American Community Survey also showed that nearly half of renters’ households spent more than 30 percent of their income on housing. – Washington Post 
• Homebuyers Hit by Price Surge, Supply Crunch Rock 2024 Election. Harris proposes 3 million units to ease housing shortage. Trump plans to open up federal lands for housing development – Bloomberg
• US house prices are forecast to rise more than 4% next year – Goldman Sachs
• Housing is the main inflation problem – Axios
• The Role of Housing in U.S. Inflation – The White House  

On the US—other developments:    

• Make homes affordable again. The unreachable American dream of ownership could be a decisive issue in the presidential contest – FT
• What Will It Take to Make Housing More Affordable? Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is campaigning on a proposal to make housing more affordable by providing down payment assistance for first-time home buyers and encouraging construction of new housing. – Yale
• The American Dream Without a House? Believe It. As housing costs soar, younger adults are trying to reimagine prosperity — without the white picket fence. – New York Times
• How to Break—and Fix—Housing Markets. Housing prices are too high. Harris will push them higher. – Wall Street Journal
• Here’s What Harris and Trump Have Proposed to Help the Housing Crisis – Time
• The government cannot solve America’s housing crisis – The Hill  
• How Americans Voted Their Way Into a Housing Crisis. A new book from Jerusalem Demsas explores how local elections, community meetings and other democratic structures brought on a national shortage of affordable homes. – Bloomberg
• How Not to Make Housing Affordable. Kamala Harris could learn from New York City’s failed example. – Wall Street Journal
• The American Dream Without a House? Believe It.  As housing costs soar, younger adults are trying to reimagine prosperity — without the white picket fence. – New York Times  
• Housing Markets in California, New Jersey and Illinois Still have Elevated Risk of Downturns in Second Quarter of 2024 – ATTOM
• Top 10 Most Vulnerable U.S. Housing Markets in Q2 2024 – ATTOM
• There Was a Housing Bubble in Atlanta Prior to the Crash – CEPR
• The Week in Review. Week of Sept 2 — Jobs for humans and robots – Home Economics
• Affordability Challenges and the Composition of Middle-Income Renters – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• How buyers, sellers and agents are navigating the real estate shake-up. New rules on agent commissions formally kicked in last month but have already been having an effect on the ground. – Washington Post
• Home Buyers Are Looking for Amenity Loaded Kitchens and Bathrooms – NAHB
• Rising Homeownership Rate for Multigenerational Households – NAHB

On China:

• Will China’s latest urbanization push work? – Peterson Institute
• China has the savings to deal with property crisis, with no global spillover: economist. S&P Global Ratings global chief economist Paul Gruenwald says China is under no external or market pressure to deal with the property market – South China Morning Post
• China’s Unworkable Housing Rescue Math Is Prolonging Crisis. Local cities have made little headway since big rescue in May. Buying unsold homes will further stress local government debt – Bloomberg

On Australia and New Zealand

• [Australia] Meet the Viral Housing Activist Running for Australian Senate. Jordie van den Lamb, better known by social media handle “purplepingers,” has warmed the hearts of renters worldwide with his uncompromisingly deadpan war on landlords. Now he’s taking the fight to their Australian headquarters, Parliament House. – Jacobin
• [New Zealand] Lower interest rates may take time to ripple through the housing market – CoreLogic
• [New Zealand] New Zealand Housing Construction Slump Highlights Recession Risk – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Rate cuts have yet to pull Canada’s housing markets out of their slump – RBC
• [Denmark] Denmark’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong targets tenants with luxury cars over misuse of social housing. Chinese territory under pressure from Beijing to ensure affordable homes are allocated to those who need them – FT
• [Hong Kong] Devil in the details in Hong Kong’s efforts to raise housing game. While a design guide and community living rooms are encouraging steps, government should adopt a people-centric approach across the board – South China Morning Post
• [Ireland] Housing in Ireland is broken – New York Times
• [Netherlands] The Netherlands’ Rent Control Disaster. The Dutch government’s radical expansion of rent control is displacing tenants and aggravating a preexisting housing shortage. – Reason
• [Portugal] Rich Americans flock to Portugal’s Algarve, sparking home sales frenzy. Property prices have risen over 30 per cent in the past year, driven by a surge in US buyers seeking a new lifestyle – South China Morning Post
• [Singapore] Singapore Will ‘Act Decisively’ on More Housing Curbs If Needed – Bloomberg
• [Sweden] Swedes More Upbeat on Housing Prices as Rate Cuts Provide Relief – Bloomberg
• [Taiwan] Why Taiwan is struggling to curb its tech-fuelled housing boom. Housing has risen to the top of Taiwan’s policy agenda, but differences between the government and central bank are slowing progress – South China Morning Post
• [United Arab Emirates] Dubai Family Bets on Luxury Property Boom With $1 Billion Towers. Homes at Sankari Properties’ project start at $11 million. Dubai’s high-end market not seeing any saturation: CEO – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Near Record After BOE Rate Cut, Halifax Says. Prices rise 0.3% in August, the second straight increase. Data add to optimism over stronger autumn for housing market – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK apartment prices underperform rest of market since 2019. Flexible working and concerns over cladding drive buyers towards other property types – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK Housing Market Gains Momentum After BOE Rate Cut, RICS Says – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] The Urgent Need to Build More Homes – Tony Blair Institute for Global Change

On cross-country:

• Why Interest Rate Cuts Won’t Fix a Global Housing Affordability Crisis. Central bankers are lowering borrowing costs, but that won’t be a cure-all for a widespread lack of affordable housing. – New York Times
• Concern over housing costs hits record high across rich nations. Surge in mortgage costs and higher rents have combined with chronic shortage of building to stoke crisis – FT
• Already expensive global house prices to get modest boost from rate cuts: Reuters poll – Reuters

Working papers and conferences:

• Assessing expectations of European house prices – Econstor
• Understanding the effects of the cost-of-living crisis: The role of interest rates and mortgage debt – VoxEU
• Tracking the Impact of Short-Term Rental Regulation – NBER
• When Is Shelter Services Inflation Coming Down? – San Francisco Fed
• The Aggregate and Distributional Implications of Credit Shocks on Housing and Rental Markets – SSRN
• Partial Homeownership: A Quantitative Analysis – SSRN
• Understanding Spatial House Price Dynamics in a Housing Boom – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Expert Panel Predicts Home Price Growth Will Decelerate in 2024 and 2025. Panel Also Shares Thoughts on Most Impactful Potential Policy Reforms to Boost Housing Supply – Fannie Mae
• The Week in Review. Week of August 26 — Prices Decelerate, Rents Recede – Home Economics
• Why Are Multifamily Property Prices Falling? More recently, prices have retreated in the face of higher interest rates, slower rent growth, elevated operating expenses, and increased delivery of new units available for rent. However, the deterioration in these fundamentals does not fully explain recent property price declines, suggesting investors’ near-term outlooks have been pessimistic. – Kansas City Fed
• Airbnb Urges NYC to Scale Back Short-Term Rental Regulations. Airbnb short-term rentals in NYC have fallen by 83% in a year. Company says travelers are priced out and hosts are struggling – Bloomberg
• Economies of Scale in Single-family Home Construction – NAHB
• HBGI Q2 2024: Single Family Growth vs. Multifamily Decline – NAHB
• US construction spending falls more than expected in July – Reuters
• Private Residential Construction Spending Inches Down in July – NAHB
• The Nation’s Stock of Second Homes – NAHB
• US Mortgage Rates Continue to Ease on Expectations of Fed Move. Purchase applications rose 3.3% as borrowing costs edged lower. 30-year mortgage rates fell for fifth week, MBA survey shows – Bloomberg
• Honey, I Shrunk the Mortgage Rate! – Realtor.com
• Harris Has a Plan to Raise Homeownership. Builder Stocks Rejoice – Bloomberg
• US homebuilders face credit crunch as banks cut lending. Housing starts are on track to fall 16% this year according to government data – FT
• Construction Labor Market is Cooling – NAHB
• House Price Appreciation by State and Metro Area: Second Quarter 2024 – NAHB

On the US—other developments:    

• Harris and Trump Have Housing Ideas. Economists Have Doubts. The two presidential nominees are talking about their approaches for solving America’s affordability crisis. But would their plans work? – New York Times
• No amount of personal responsibility will make the housing market fair. Kamala Harris has a questionable housing plan. Meanwhile, workers struggle to find homes. – Washington Post
• This Is How To Fix the Housing Crisis – New York Times
• How to fix a housing shortage – NPR
• Who’s Responsible for the Housing Crisis? How local governments broke America’s housing markets – The Atlantic
• California’s Housing and Wildfire Crises Are on a Collision Course. Environmentalist are increasingly using burn risks to halt huge home developments in the state—but some say they go too far – Wall Street Journal
• Rental Markets Are Cooling, but Rents Still Far Exceed Pre-Pandemic Levels – The Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• The New Home Financing Rule of Thumb Is Why Regular Americans Can’t Afford To Buy a House – Realtor.com
• What Would New York City’s Housing “Moonshot” Look Like? – Manhattan Institute
• New releases from Atlantic Editions: On Heroism, by Jeffrey Goldberg, and On the Housing Crisis, by Jerusalem Demsas – The Atlantic
• Homes Near Top-Rated Schools Cost Nearly 80% More—but Homebuyers Can Still Find Bargains by Giving Up One Thing – Realtor.com
• Housing Markets in California, New Jersey and Illinois Still have Elevated Risk of Downturns in Second Quarter of 2024 – ATTOM

On China:

• China Considers Allowing Refinancing on $5.4 Trillion in Mortgages. Plan would let homeowners switch banks for cheaper loans. Property slump has dragged down consumption, household wealth – Bloomberg
• China Mortgage Stock Falls to Lowest Since 2021 as Demand Cools. Decline shows households are refraining from borrowing. Weak confidence threatens to put 5% growth target out of reach – Bloomberg
• China is fixing housing market with a long gaze – Reuters
• Why It’s So Hard for China to Fix Its Ailing Economy. A real estate collapse has made consumers cautious and businesses wary, as China confronts a crisis unlike any other since it opened its economy to the world. – New York Times
• China Property Slump Spurs Local Governments’ Quest for Cash. For the first seven months of 2024 local government proceeds from land sales slid over 20% – Wall Street Journal
• China Weighs Cutting Mortgage Rates in Two Steps to Shield Banks. Officials proposed rate cuts of about 80 basis points: people. Move to boost household consumption, ease pressure on banks – Bloomberg 

On Australia and New Zealand

• [Australia] Australian House Prices Extend Rise But Momentum Fades. Home values increased 0.5% nationally in the month of August – Wall Street Journal
• [Australia] Growth cools in Australian housing values through winter as Melbourne median slips below Perth and Adelaide – CoreLogic
• [Australia] Australian Home Prices Climb as Perth and Adelaide Lead Gains – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Australia home prices nudge higher in August but quarterly pace slows – Reuters
• [Australia] Australia’s two-speed housing market – MacroBusiness
• [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices to rise 6% next year on lower interest rates – Reuters
• [New Zealand] Brighter future for small investors and relocating owner-occupiers as market conditions shift – CoreLogic
• [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices to rise 6% next year on lower interest rates – Reuters
• [New Zealand] New Zealand House Prices Fall for Sixth Month as Rates Take Toll – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] Confidence in property market takes a nose dive, survey shows – RNZ

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Toronto Home Sales Tick Higher as Borrowing Costs Decline. Transactions rose by 0.6% in August as buyer demand recovers. Home prices were little changed from a month earlier – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Bank of Canada’s Tiff Macklem forecasts rent decreases, but rise in home prices are possible – The Globe and Mail
• [Japan] Japan’s Era of ‘Free’ Mortgages Is Coming to an End. Homeowners are gearing up to pay more on their loans as the Bank of Japan’s rate increases signal the end of decades of ultralow interest rates. – New York Times
• [Korea] Seoul Apartment Purchases Drop, Boosting Odds of BOK Rate Cut – Bloomberg
• [Ireland] Homeless families should get dedicated portion of new social housing supply, Focus Ireland says. Charity calls for more one-bed and family accommodation as it reveals a 12.5% increase in the number of people it supported in 2023 – The Irish Times
• [Norway] Norway’s Home Prices Shrug Off Decline to Rebound in August – Bloomberg
• [Sweden] Swedish Home Prices Regain Some Ground as Interest Rates Decline – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Post Surprise Fall Despite BOE Rate Cut. Average price down 0.2% in August to £265,375, Nationwide Says. But rising mortgage approvals point to stronger autumn – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise at fastest pace since late 2022. Mortgage approvals reach highest level since market was hit by Liz Truss’s mini-Budget – FT
• [United Kingdom] Soaring costs squeeze landlords’ margins. Ground rents, rates and insurance add to mortgage costs – FT
• [United Kingdom] Greens appeal to renters with regulator that could fine real estate agencies. Creating a national renters protection authority is one of several policies party is taking to election as possible kingmakers in a hung parliament – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Manchester named top hotspot for first-time buyers in Halifax study. Research covering UK outside Greater London places city ahead of Slough, Sandwell and others – The Guardian

On cross-country:

• BIS residential property price statistics, Q1 2024. The fall in global house prices moderated further in the first quarter of 2024, at 1.0% year on year (yoy) in aggregate and in real terms. In more than half of the economies, real prices were already increasing compared with the same period one year earlier, showing high heterogeneity. – BIS
• South Korea, Australia show rate cuts are no cure-all for property markets. The two nations provide a cautionary tale of the limits of monetary policy when other factors also influence the outlook for residential property – South China Morning Post

Working papers and conferences:

• Understanding Spatial House Price Dynamics in a Housing Boom – CESifo
• Wildfires and Real Estate Values in California – San Francisco Fed
• Rents, home values depressed in air pollution hotspots – Dallas Fed
• Property Tax Policy and Housing Affordability – SSRN
• Did Brexiteers Get What They Voted for? Evidence from the Housing Market – SSRN
• Hot Property. The Amplifying Effects of Housing Costs on Regional Inequality – SSRN
• Housing Tenure, Consumption and Household Debt: Life-Cycle Dynamics During a Housing Bust in Spain – SSRN
• The Aggregate and Distributional Implications of Credit Shocks on Housing and Rental Markets – SSRN  

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• What Determines Home Prices? Hint: it’s (mostly) not supply – Home Economics
• US house prices fall on monthly basis in June – Reuters
• Home Price Gains Continue to Slow – NAHB 
• U.S. House Prices Rise 5.7 Percent over the Last Year; Up 0.9 Percent from the First Quarter of 2024 – FHFA
• U.S. Accuses RealPage of Illegally Coordinating Rent Prices. Suit alleges the real-estate software company stifles competition through its algorithm – Wall Street Journal
• Surprise Lift for New Home Sales in July – NAHB
• New home sales jump in July; Buyers take advantage of lower rates – Realtor.com
• New York City Rental Report: Rents Continue to Increase in July 2024 – Realtor.com
• Homes Sales Are Down, So Why No Recession? – CoreLogic
• Single-Family Build Time Continues to Trend Upward for 2023 – NAHB
• Apartment Completions Rising – NAHB
• Reforms Spur Faster Housing Approvals in California. A state law removed hurdles, creating a more predictable process for homebuilding – Pew
• Mortgage rates keep falling. But homebuyers still aren’t biting. Rates are dropping and inventory is up. But for many, prices are still too high – Quartz
• Home Mortgage Lending Rebounds Nationwide with Across the Board Gains in Second Quarter of 2024 – ATTOM
• Homeowners with low mortgage rates are seeing the ‘lock-in effect’ fade. Here’s what that means. Americans are slowly starting to let go of their pandemic-era mortgages – Quartz
• Does a Construction Cartel Explain Rising Rents? – American Institute for Economic Research

On the US—other developments:    

• Housing Is the Sleeper Issue of the 2024 Campaign. Harris promises to double down on Biden policies that have made it more expensive to buy a home. – Wall Street Journal
• Harris puts housing at center of economic pitch to US voters – Reuters
• Kamala Harris puts housing on the agenda – Politico
• Kamala Harris’ Affordability Agenda Is a Good Idea Backed by Terrible Policies. Americans need a politician dedicated to unwinding decades of government interventions that have driven up the cost of middle-class living. – Reason
• YIMBYs’ Premature Victory Dance at the DNC. Kamala Harris’ promise to end the housing shortage and adopt rent control shows that YIMBY ideas are just one of several competing housing policy agendas within the Democratic Party. – Reason
• ‘America is not a museum’: Why Democrats are going big on housing despite the risks. Vice President Kamala Harris is trying to flip the script and own an issue impacting large swaths of Americans. – Politico
• Housing crisis and working-class focus drive DNC momentum – Axios
• Plan Beats No Plan – New York Times
• Soaring Insurance Costs Could ‘End’ Affordable Housing, Developers Warn. Developers and landlords of subsidized housing, who cannot raise rents or charge more for starter homes, say property insurance increases could put them out of business. – New York Times  
• Florida’s top affordable housing issues. The Sunshine State has seen an increase in new businesses and population in recent years, which puts more pressure on affordable housing. Learn how developers are addressing the housing crisis. – JP Morgan
• Real Estate Realities: Current Perspectives on the Housing Market – St. Louis Fed
• Where the housing market shift is—and isn’t—happening. The current softening in the housing market is concentrated by region. Here’s where home prices have moved the most. – Fast Company
• The Week in Review. Week of Aug 19 — Sales surge – Home Economics
• Why Philadelphia Is Bucking a Nationwide Surge in Evictions. Diversion program requires landlords to go through out-of-court negotiations before they can remove tenants. – Wall Street Journal
• Finally, America’s housing market is starting to loosen up. But it’ll be a bumpy road back – CNN
• The ADU lovefest is just getting started. Could the popularity of ADUs lead to something more? – The New Urban Order
• Housing affordability in America is finally improving. Not so much in these cities – CNN
• Trends in Housing Affordability: Who Can Currently Afford to Buy a Home? – National Association of Realtors
• The Private-Equity Scion Buying Up America’s Trophy Homes. Daren Metropoulos has spent roughly 18 years building a property portfolio worth about $326 million – Wall Street Journal

On China:

• China Vows to Quicken Buying Unsold Homes for Public Housing. Part of latest effort to end the nation’s property slump. Will also step up renting and selling of public housing units – Bloomberg
• To restore consumer confidence, China must save the property sector. Instead of squandering billions buying unsold properties, Beijing should learn from the US response to the global financial crisis – South China Morning Post
• Protests in China on the Rise Amid Housing Crisis, Slowing Economy. Dissent cases rise 18% in the second quarter of 2024: CDM. Four-decade rise in living standards shows signs of stalling – Bloomberg

On Australia and New Zealand

• [Australia] Housing market overview – Sept Qtr. 2024 – Matusik Missive
• [Australia] Australia caps international student numbers amid discontent over housing. Education minister says enrolments to be limited to 270,000 in 2025 in bid to create ‘a better and a fairer system’. – Al Jazeera
• [Australia] Car park wins out over affordable housing despite shortfall of 6,000 homes across inner Melbourne. Open-air car parking a ‘poor use of prime real estate in the inner city’, councillor says – The Guardian
• [Australia] Canada and Australia bet on housing and lost – Macrobusiness 
• [New Zealand] Is housing market rebound waiting to happen? – RNZ

On other countries:  

• [Argentina] Argentina Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Canada] Canada Frees Up Public Lands to Tackle Housing Shortage – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Ottawa unveils five federal properties for affordable housing development – The Globe and Mail
• [Germany] Rebound in German home prices around the corner, analysts say: Reuters poll – Reuters
• [Hong Kong] Betting on Chinese demand, Hong Kong developers turn to rental market – Reuters
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s July used-home price index drops to 8-year low amid tepid property market. Hong Kong’s housing industry is mired in a slump, as a huge stock of new homes combines with borrowing costs at a 23-year high – South China Morning Post
• [Netherlands] How Rent Controls Are Deepening the Dutch Housing Crisis. A law designed to make homes more affordable ended up aggravating an apartment shortage. – Bloomberg
• [Portugal] Lisbon’s Housing Market Is Unstoppable, Golden Visa or Not. Tweaks to the program haven’t halted interest from international buyers, who have boosted home prices in Portugal’s capital city – Wall Street Journal
• [South Africa] South Africa Weighs Tightening Bank-Disclosure Laws on Mortgages. High rejection rate for loan applications worrying: minister. Banks cited poor affordability, housing department says – Bloomberg
• [Sweden] Sweden’s SBB sees improving property market as losses shrink – Reuters
• [Turkey] Turkey Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [United Kingdom] London landlords leave the market in increasing numbers. Buy-to-let property sales are on the rise – FT
• [United Kingdom] First-time buyers made up 48% of house hunters in London this year, data shows. Proportion was biggest since at least 2010 as cheaper mortgage deals slowed exodus from city, says estate agent – The Guardian

Working papers and conferences:

• NAR Settlement, House Prices, and Consumer Welfare – NBER
• Affordable Housing, Unaffordable Credit? Concentration and High-Cost Lending for Manufactured Homes – SSRN
• From Boom to Bust: Probabilities of Turning Points in House Prices – SSRN 

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• U.S. Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – August 2024 | Spotlight: Refinance Trends – Freddie Mac
• Home Sales Remain Subdued as Labor Market and Inflation Continue to Cool – Fannie Mae
• MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q2 2024 – Calculated Risk
• Single-Family Starts Weak in July – NAHB
• Housing Starts: Single Family Down Year-15% over-year in July; Multi-Family Down 18% YoY – Calculated Risk 
• New Residential Construction Slides in July; Multi-Family Projects Lead Decline – Realtor.com
• The Typical U.S. Housing Payment Has Fallen to Lowest Level in 6 Months. That Has Led to More Buyer Interest, But Not More Sales – Redfin
• Best Quarter for Custom Home Building in Almost Two Years – NAHB
• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July and 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets – Calculated Risk
• Here Comes Kamala’s Mortgage Forgiveness. Her plan to make housing more ‘affordable’ via subsidies will raise prices and create moral hazard. – Wall Street Journal
• Existing Home Sales Rose 0.6% Last Month, But Were At the Lowest July Level on Record – Redfin
• Solid Levels of Single-Family Built-for-Rent Construction – NAHB
• The audacious goal of building 10,000 affordable homes in California’s Coachella Valley – Brookings
• Governors are building more homes. Here’s how Congress can help – The Hill 
• Lawler: Rent Trends at Invitation Homes and American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) – Calculated Risk
• 10 Places Where Lower Mortgage Rates Will ‘Unlock’ the Housing Market the Fastest – Realtor.com
• US Home-Purchase Applications Slide to Lowest Since February – Bloomberg  
• Housing market map: Zillow’s 2025 home price forecast for more than 400 markets. Zillow thinks national home price growth is amid a sharp deceleration. – Fast Company
• Homebuilders have had the upper hand in the housing market. Lower rates may change that. – Yahoo Finance

On the US—other developments:    

• Harris has the right idea on housing. It has to be managed as both a consumer good and as an asset class. – Noahpinion
• Harris’s housing plans: Key takeaways – Yahoo Finance
• Harris to Call for Expanded Child Tax Credit, 3 Million New Housing Units. Democratic nominee to address thorny economic issue by calling for more construction, tax incentives – Wall Street Journal
• Harris’s economic plan: grocery prices, housing credits and tax rises. Populist measures designed to win over US voters are less welcome to business and economists – FT
• Why Harris’s housing plan won’t work. Kamala Harris can’t count on adding 3 million houses to the market by 2028. – Washington Post
• Letter: VP’s offer to first-time buyers risks fuelling the housing crisis – FT
• Kamala Harris’ welcome housing boost is overdue – Reuters
• Kamala Harris’ ‘Build, Baby, Build’ Convention. Housing supply hasn’t been a front-burner issue in presidential politics for decades. That changed this week in Chicago. – Politico
• The Harris-Walz Campaign’s Housing Agenda Is Subpar – Jacobin   
• Rep. Maxwell Frost stresses housing as priority for young voters – Axios
• The Share of Million-Dollar Homes in America Just Hit an All-Time High. Nearly 1 in 10 properties have an estimated value of $1 million or more, an ‘entry point’ for some markets – Wall Street Journal
• Cutting Fees. Going It Alone. New Rules Are Changing How We Buy and Sell Homes. Buyers can now determine what their agents are paid under new rules being rolled out across the U.S. – Wall Street Journal
• Why is New York City Shrinking? Who is leaving, and where are they going? – Home Economics
• Our Carrie Bradshaw index: where Americans can afford to live solo in 2024. Compared with last year, rent on basic apartments looks more affordable – The Economist
• Best Quarter for Custom Home Building in Almost Two Years – NAHB
• Lowe’s Cuts Guidance on Soft DIY Spending, Housing Market. Consumers are pulling back on spending for big ticket projects. Retailer said it is making inroads with professional customers – Bloomberg  
• Flat Conditions for Single-Family Home Size – NAHB
• California’s decade-long effort to legalize ADUs offers lessons for other US states and regions – Brookings

On China:

• China’s $70bn property rescue plan limps off starting line. Banks have disbursed only a fraction of the scheme’s target lending to buy up unsold housing – FT

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Melbourne mayor backs converting offices into apartments in bid to boost housing supply. Support for idea comes as Victorian government unveils plan to fast-track planning approvals in 10 hubs across city – The Guardian
• [Canada] Canada real estate: Housing affordability improves as income required to buy a home fall – Yahoo Finance
• [Hong Kong] Are young Hongkongers choosing to pursue public rental flats over their dreams? Officials caution against ‘lying flat’, but young people point to severe shortage of housing choices – South China Morning Post
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s homebuyers would rather forfeit their deposits than pay above-market prices. The 308 cases in the first half of the year have already exceeded last year’s total of 261, according to data from Centaline – South China Morning Post
• [Israel] Israel Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Japan] Japan Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Korea] Koreans Expect Hotter Home Prices With Central Bank Set to Meet – Bloomberg
• [Korea] Bank of Korea Holds Rate Steady to Rein in Housing Market Meet – Bloomberg
• [Singapore] Latest property cooling measure will dampen demand in the short term, say analysts – The Straits Times
• [Singapore] Singapore Adds Public Housing Curbs to Boost Affordability. Loan-to-value limit lowered to 75% for public housing. Public housing deals at or above S$1 million reached 419 in 1H – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] To Solve Its Housing Crisis, Britain Turns to an Old Idea: New Towns. By reviving an idea from the 1940s, the Labour Party government is hoping to overcome the development hurdles that have plagued previous efforts with a plan to build new communities. – New York Times
• [United Kingdom] Interest rate cut fuels immediate upturn in UK property market. Figures from Rightmove show inquiries to estate agents since 1 August up 19% compared with a year ago – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] When will UK rental inflation slow down? It might be soon — but that would leave tenants on a painful plateau – FT

On cross-country:

• Promoting Access to Affordable Housing in Emerging Markets – IFC
• Is Land-Use Regulation Holding Back Construction Productivity? – Construction Physics
• European Residential Update – Knight Frank

Working papers and conferences:

• Racial Housing Price Differentials and Neighborhood Segregation – NBER
• A tale of tier 3 cities – Journal of International Economics
• Credit Supply, Prices, and Non-price Mechanisms in the Mortgage Market – San Francisco Fed
• House Prices and Monetary Policy: Tearing down the wall in Germany? – SSRN
• Housing-Consumption Channel of Mortgage Demand – SSRN
• Entrepreneurs, Collateral Channel, and the House Price Volatility Puzzle – SSRN  

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• US Mortgage Rates Tumble to 6.55% in Biggest Drop in Two Years. 30-year rate slides 27 basis points to lowest since May 2023. Drop spurs pickup in applications to refinance, buy a home – Bloomberg
• US Mortgage Refinancing Surges by Most Since 2020 on Lower Rates. MBA gauge jumped 34.5% to a more than two-year high last week. Mortgage applications for home purchases rose more modest 2.8% – Bloomberg
• Why Falling Mortgage Rates Aren’t a Quick Fix for Frustrated Homebuyers. Record home prices and renewed fears of a recession complicate hopes for housing market recovery – Wall Street Journal
• How Gen Z Co-Purchasing Is Changing the Borrower Landscape. The real estate market is transforming as Generation Z become homebuyers and turn to house hacking – CoreLogic
• Biggest shakeup in a century set to hit real estate agents this week: Here’s how they’re preparing – CNN
• So Much About Real-Estate Commissions Just Changed. Here’s What to Know. The changes come after the National Association of Realtors reached a landmark legal settlement earlier this year – Wall Street Journal
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in July. Early Reports Suggest Possible New Cycle Low for NAR reported Sales in July – Calculated Risk
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2024 – Calculated Risk
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2024 – Calculated Risk
• Single-Family Permit Increase Moderates in June 2024 – NAHB
• National Housing & Economic Forecast 2024 Midyear Update: Long-Awaited Mortgage Rate Relief Finally Arrives – Realtor.com
• Our Midyear Real Estate Forecast Reveals Major Change for Homebuyers—Here’s What’s in Store – Realtor.com
• Experts Predict What the Real Estate Market Will Look Like Once Mortgage Rates Drop – Realtor.com
• To cap or not to cap? – Politico

On the US—other developments:    

• FACT SHEET: Biden-⁠Harris Administration Takes New Actions to Lower Housing Costs by Cutting Red Tape to Build More Housing – The White House
• Biden Invests $100 Million to Fuel Housing Construction. The White House is expanding low-cost financing, easing regulations and incentivizing local reforms in a wide-ranging effort to increase housing supply. – Bloomberg
• How the U.S. might outgrow pandemic-era housing (un)affordability problems – Dallas Fed
• Home Ownership Affordability Monitor – Atlanta Fed
• Boomers Buying Houses Had It Bad in the ’80s. Millennials Have It Worse. The housing affordability index shows whether the typical family… – Wall Street Journal
• Housing Is a Top Concern for Voters. Why Not for the Candidates? Americans want more affordable housing. Politicians from both parties could offer better solutions. – Bloomberg
• The Fed Is Too Late to Save the Housing Market This Year. A decline in mortgage rates at the tail end of buying season is unlikely to meaningfully boost transactions or industries that depend on them. – Bloomberg
• ‘Sitting empty’: Vast expanse of federal land eyed for new housing. “Imagine having a county where over 90 percent of the land can’t have housing … all because it’s federally managed,” said Rep. John Curtis. – Politico
• Why the housing market is ‘challenged’ right now: Zillow CEO – Yahoo Finance
• Most Popular Markets People Are Moving To – Realtor.com
• Building Material Price Growth Tracking Closely to 2023 – NAHB
• Why did Detroit and New Orleans’s post-disaster recoveries diverge? Can NOLA recapture the kind of forward momentum that Detroit now has? – The New Urban Order
• Is this the best housing bill on the East Coast? A look at the new Massachusetts housing package – The New Urban Order
• Housing and Inflation, July 2024 – Erdmann Housing Tracker

On China:

• China Evergrande’s liquidators ask investors to join restructuring process – Reuters
• China’s Home Price Slump Eases After Government Rescue Efforts – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Canada’s Housing Bust Pits Real Estate Coaches Against Students. A new class of educators promised to help small-time investors use property to build their personal wealth. Now, a backlash is brewing. – Bloomberg
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s economic recovery hinges on having enough adequate housing. Housing and town planning reforms will raise social mobility, promote Hong Kong as an international talent hub and bring back our dynamism – South China Morning Post
• [Luxembourg] Luxembourg Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Norway] Norway Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Singapore] Singapore Home Sales Recover in July With More Developer Supply. Real estate firms in the city-state sold 571 units last month. July is typically a strong season after school holiday – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Would building 1.5m homes bring down British house prices?
• Answer: Not by much – The Economist
• [United Kingdom] UK Homebuilder Stocks Extend Rally on Mortgage Rate Optimism. Softer-than-expected inflation fuels borrowing cost hopes. Sector has recovered about half of rate-hike cycle losses – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] London House Prices Post First Annual Rise in More Than a Year. Dip in mortgage rates improved confidence of home buyers. Economists say BOE rate cuts will boost momentum in the autumn – Bloomberg