The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Martin T. Bohl, Niklas Humann, and Pierre L. Siklos:

“This survey synthesizes evidence on the bidirectional links between commodity markets and monetary policy. On the
commodities-to-policy side, we review how shocks to energy, food, and metals pass through to inflation, inflation expectations,
economic activity, and financial stability in state-dependent ways that vary by shock type, exposure, and policy regime. We
complement the literature with an analysis of central-bank speeches, showing how officials classify commodity shocks and how
these framings map into policy stances. On the policy-to-commodities side, we organize evidence on the transmission of monetary
policy to commodity markets via financial, real-economy, and expectations channels, highlighting heterogeneity across policy
instruments, commodities, and central banks. We emphasize how financialization tightens cross-asset linkages, raises leverage
and margin sensitivity, and amplifies discount-rate and risk-taking mechanisms. Overall, commodities are best treated as policy sensitive state variables, not exogenous disturbances, with implications for policy design, central bank communication, and
international monetary spillovers.”

From a paper by Marina da Silva Sanches:

“This study examines the effects of fiscal consolidation on income inequality in OECD countries from 1978 to 2014, using narrative data. Employing local projections methodology and using a Gini decomposition interpretation, we estimate the impact of austerity episodes on disposable income, market income, wage, and functional inequalities. While the literature has primarily focused on the overall effect of fiscal consolidation on disposable income inequality, this paper examines how different dimensions of inequality respond to fiscal consolidation episodes. We find an increase in wage inequality in the short and medium runs, and a decrease in labor’s share of income in the short run. The results also underscore the importance of social protection in the short term. Additionally, we observe a significant increase in earnings inequality, when including the lower end of the distribution. Finally, spending-based austerity measures are, in general, more relevant than tax-based ones. Results are robust to several tests.”

From a paper by Debkumar Chakrabarti, Sankalpa Bhattacharjee, Pradeepta Sethi:

“This paper undertakes a comprehensive review of some of the less-discussed factors that harbor the potential to explain the wide variations in structural transformation, especially amongst developing economies. We begin by critically reviewing the effects of income, relative price, and international trade, which are generally considered drivers of structural change, with special emphasis on developing economies. Subsequently, we bring to the forefront three comparatively less-discussed factors—income inequality, financial market imperfections, and government policy that can explain a large part of the divergences in the transformation patterns of developing economies. Underscoring the limitation of the conventional discourse that relates cross-country differences in structure in terms of cross-country differences in manufacturing, we emphasize the need for the theoretical discourse to move beyond the industry-centric approach to focus on the recent research that views the surge of services as an additional engine of growth and the possible avenues through which it can affect structural transformation.”

From a paper by Claudia Amadei, Cesare Dosi & Francesco Jacopo Pintus:

“Declines in the energy intensity of national gross domestic product cannot be simply taken as evidence of a country’s contribution to global decarbonization, notably when they come from structural changes that relocate energy-intensive production abroad. Here we analyze the role of offshoring in shaping energy intensity trends in a panel of 15 countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development between 1970 and 2021. Using both a decomposition analysis and a structural econometric model, we show that shifts in the composition of national output not mirrored by equivalent changes in domestic consumption patterns significantly and persistently reduce national energy intensity. These findings support the need to move beyond production-based climate metrics and to incorporate global supply chains for a more reliable assessment of national decarbonization pathways.”

On cross-country:

• Sistemas del impuesto predial en América Latina y el Caribe. This second edition of the book presents new data, lessons, and challenges related to property tax systems in Latin America and the Caribbean. – Lincoln Institute

Working papers and conferences:  

• The (Many) Consequences of the Housing Affordability Problem in the EU: A Machine-Learning Empirical Analysis – IMF
• The Mortgage Borrower Who Can’t Fail and the One Who Can’t Win – St Louis Fed

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Clearance rates hit six-year low as more than half of Australian homes up for auction fail to sell. Preliminary data show 47.7% of homes sold at auction in the week ending 21 June, the lowest rate has been since April 2020 – The Guardian
• [Australia] Home builds are stalling in Sydney’s west as costs outstrip values. Developers are moving to affluent areas where they can make a profit on luxury apartments. If supply doesn’t pick up, essential workers may leave. – Financial Review
• [Australia] Why falling house prices won’t be an economic disaster – The Sydney Morning Herald
• [Australia] Australia’s tax overhaul chills nation’s long love affair with property – Reuters

On other countries:  

• [Ireland] The Irish Times view on house prices: some important signals. Shortage of supply, particularly in the second-hand market, will continue to make it a sellers’ market – The Irish Times
• [Portugal] Portugal’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Switzerland] Switzerland Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [United Arab Emirates] United Arab Emirates’ Residential Property Market Analysis 2026– Global Property Guide
• [United Arab Emirates] Dubai property sales have fallen ‘off a cliff’ since start of Middle East war. Sellers of luxury villas have wiped tens of millions of pounds off asking prices, with sales down 19% in May from the previous month – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] The rise of the remorseful homebuyer. Those who got on the property ladder in the past five years lament high mortgage bills, leasehold troubles, location doubts and a difficult sales market – FT