The Unassuming Economist

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q1 2026 – Calculated Risk
• Prices: Groceries, Mortgages, Stocks vs. Bonds – Jared Bernstein
• US pending home sales  increase further; higher mortgage rates remain a constraint – Reuters
• A Risky, Unconventional Mortgage Is on the Rise Again. Share of mortgages using alternative lending practices doubled in recent years, with lenders trying to get more business in a stalled housing market – Wall Street Journal

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:     

• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2026 – Calculated Risk
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2026 – Calculated Risk
• Single-Family Permits Continue to Weaken in Early 2026 – NAHB
• Who Drives Remodeling Spending? – NAHB
• Delivering value: Building housing on Postal Service property – Brookings
• Builder Sentiment Posts Gain in May but Significant Affordability Challenges Persist – NAHB
• Home seller profits are collapsing in Florida — and surging in Michigan. Home sale returns fell in most markets in early 2026. ATTOM tracked profit margins for 128 metro areas in Q1 2026 to identify who gained and who lost – Quartz
• Homebuilder Confidence Perks Up as Congress Eyes Housing Reform Package – Realtor.com
• New home construction dropped hardest in these 5 U.S. states. Homebuilding lagged in parts of the U.S. in 2025. The Building Permits Survey measured all 50 states on housing permits to find the steepest drops – Quartz
• Los Angeles Tried to Tax Mansions. Apartment Construction Tanked. Developers say the levy is making L.A.’s housing shortage worse. The city is considering changes. – Wall Street Journal
• Housing Starts Decreased to 1.465 million Annual Rate in April – Calculated Risk

On other developments:    

• U.S. housing: Unaffordable to buy, but wealth-building to own – Dallas Fed
• White House, Senate skeptical about House’s amended housing bill. The House-amended version of a housing supply and homeownership bill bucks the directive of the Senate to pass the upper chamber’s bill. – Politico
• White House amps up pressure on House Republicans to support Senate housing bill. The White House is pushing the House to accept a Senate-passed housing affordability package. – Politico
• Johnson: House will amend stalled housing bill despite White House, Senate GOP pushback. Republicans are eager to advance a housing affordability package that’s central to their midterm messaging. – Politico
• Schumer keeps options open on housing bill as cross-chamber tensions rise. The White House and the architects of the Senate bill have pushed back against the House-amended housing affordability package. – Politico
• House GOP leaders plan housing bill vote despite Trump ultimatum. The president demanded Republicans add the SAVE America Act to the bipartisan affordability bill. – Politico
• Key Questions Remain as Housing Bill Returns to Congress This Week – Realtor.com
• A Housing Bill That Would Hurt Housing. House Republicans improve a lousy Senate bill, but not enough to make it worth saving. – Wall Street Journal
• House Passes Housing Bill, Uniting on a Measure to Bring Down Costs. The legislation, which had been stalled amid Republican divisions, passed overwhelmingly, signaling an eagerness in both parties to address affordability in an election year. – New York Times
• Newly Passed Housing Bill Throws Lifeline to Home Builders. House measure leaves out Senate provision that would have forced developers to sell rental homes within seven years – Wall Street Journal
• Housing Market Silver Linings: Why Homebuyers Are Finding Relief Despite ‘Inflation Contagion’ – Realtor.com
• Is the frozen housing market starting to thaw? – JP Morgan
• Lowering the Cost of Living for American Families. As families struggle to make ends meet amid rising costs, the Center for American Progress’ affordability agenda would save a typical family $4,133 per year across housing, health care, utility bills, and groceries. – Center for American Progress
• These Parents Are Buying Homes for Their Kids—With Strings Attached. The least affordable prices in decades have turned a milestone of independence into a family affair – Wall Street Journal
• Zombie Foreclosures Rise in Most States in Second Quarter – ATTOM

From a paper by Hippolyte Balima, Alexandru Minea, and Cezara Vinturis:

“We investigate the effect of inflation targeting on income inequality across a comprehensive panel of 152 countries spanning over four decades. Using the entropy balancing methodology to address endogeneity issues, we find that inflation targeting significantly increases income inequality. This effect, which is robust across various alternative methods and specifications, is driven by an increase (decrease) in the income share of relatively rich (poor) households. In addition, the impact of inflation targeting is not uniform but varies conditional on redistribution policies, inflation targeting features, the level of economic development, and country-specific characteristics. Our findings contribute to the ongoing discussion on the broad socioeconomic implications of the monetary policy, including measures to mitigate the potential side effects on income distribution.”

On cross-country:

• Commission proposes new measures to address poverty and the housing crisis – European Commission

Working papers and conferences:

• Measuring Renters in Credit Data: Evidence from Linked Survey and Administrative Data – FED
• China’s real estate reckoning: Lessons from Japan’s lost decade – VoxEU

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Short-stay Street: in some parts of Sydney, Airbnb guests outnumber residents – The Guardian
• [Australia] Australian Treasurer to Tackle ‘Unacceptable’ Housing Market – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Australia Tackles Property Tax Breaks, Disappoints on Deficit – Bloomberg – The Guardian
• [Australia] Australia dumps tax breaks for landlords to help young own a home – Reuters
• [Australia] Australia’s tax reforms expected to knock some heat out of housing market – Reuters
• [Australia] Spooked investors could see house prices sink after big budget changes – Sydney Morning Herald
• [Australia] Young voters, property investors react to Australian government’s tax changes – Reuters

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Building the workforce needed to deliver more homes in Halifax – Government of Canada
• [Canada] Canadian Home Sales Edge Up as Spring Market Attracts Buyers – Bloomberg
• [Ireland] Irish house price growth slows to lowest rate in more than two years. Residential property prices rose by 6.5% in the 12 months to March, down from the 6.7% in the year to February – The Irish Times
• [Korea] Seoul Apartment Price Gains Pick Up Pace, Adding Pressure on BOK – Bloomberg
• [Malta] Malta’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Taiwan] Taiwan’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Tanzania] How architecture can save lives. Carefully designed homes in Tanzania have been shown to lower disease rates among children – FT
• [United Arab Emirates] Dubai’s Real Estate Market Gets a Vote of Confidence. “We understand the risks and benefits in the region better than others,” a top Brookfield executive said. – Bloomberg
• [United Arab Emirates] UAE Residential Property Price Report 2026 March – REIDIN
• [United Kingdom] UK housing market slows as Iran war hits demand, Halifax data shows – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] UK housebuilders scale back as Iran war and interest rates mute demand. Cuts to earnings guidance and land purchases cast doubt on whether government will meet 1.5mn new homes target – FT
• [United Kingdom] Mortgage refixing, longer lags and eggs – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK estate agents at gloomiest in two years amid Iran turmoil. Middle East conflict’s economic impact is hurting the housing market – FT

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Mortgage Applications Retreats Further in April – NAHB
• May ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Annual home price growth was 0.9% in April” – Calculated Risk

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:     

• Big U.S. housing starts slide offers growth warning – Reuters
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in April – Calculated Risk
• Spring Housing Market Faces Crossroads With ‘Make or Break’ Trend in New Listings – Realtor.com
• Residential Building Worker Wages Remain Soft in Early 2026 Amid Slower Housing Activity – NAHB
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased Slightly to 4.02 million SAAR in April. Median House Prices Increased 0.9% Year-over-Year – Calculated Risk
• Existing Home Sales Edged Up Slightly in April – NAHB
• New-Construction Insights: Urban New Builds Are Scarce and Expensive – Realtor.com
• Housing Market’s Spring Is Shaping Up as a Bust After April Sales Were Flat. Existing-home sales edged up 0.2%, well below economist expectations and extending the industry’s long slump – Wall Street Journal
• Residential Construction Input Prices Move Higher In April – NAHB
• The spring housing market is off to a bad start. Sales of existing homes rose just 0.2% in April to a 4.02 million annual rate, far below analysts’ expectations of more than 3% growth – Quartz

On other developments:    

• April 2026 Hottest Housing Markets – Realtor.com
• Mapped: Where Housing Takes the Biggest Share of Income – Visual Capitalist
• Mapped: Where Young Americans Still Own Homes – Visual Capitalist
• How Measurement Choices Shape the Housing Debate—and the Charts in the President’s Economic Report – Cato Institute
• Twin Cities region misses its housing marks. For the first time since a set of housing affordability goals were established in 2022, the Twin Cities region failed on all three measures – Minneapolis Fed
• Wichita Is a Rare Mecca of Affordability for America’s New Middle Class. Duplex boom is attracting middle-income earners to the Midwestern city – Wall Street Journal
• Roosevelt Institute Expands Housing Policy Work with Residency. Applications open for emerging leaders generating bold policy ideas to expand housing supply – Roosevelt Institute
• The Return for These Investors Isn’t Money. It’s More Affordable Housing. – Seattle Times  
• Trump calls on Congress to pass Senate’s housing bill. The president had previously stayed out of a cross-chamber dispute over housing affordability legislation. – Politico
• ‘We’ve been pretty straightforward’: White House draws a line on housing bill. The White House is mounting pressure on the House to pass the Senate’s housing bill as-is, but the lower chamber is bucking the directive for now. – Politico
• House Republicans press ahead on reworking Senate housing package. GOP lawmakers are continuing to work on an embattled housing bill, even after the president said he wants the Senate’s version passed. – Politico
• Rising Housing Costs Keep First-Time Buyers on the Sidelines. The effects of the war in Iran have raised mortgage rates and lowered consumer confidence, making it even harder for house hunters. – New York Times 
• Is It Too Expensive to Sell a House? Millions of Americans are holding onto empty homes, fearing the tax hit a sale would bring. – New York Times
• Rising Housing Costs Keep First-Time Buyers on the Sidelines. The effects of the war in Iran have raised mortgage rates and lowered consumer confidence, making it even harder for house hunters. – New York Times
• Best U.S. cities for first-time homebuyers in 2026, ranked by affordability. First-time buyers in the U.S. now close at the oldest age on record. Realtor.com ranked communities to find the 10 best markets for 2026 – Quartz
• San Francisco’s Luxury Housing Boom Is a Warning – Bloomberg
• Rent Is Swallowing Household Incomes. Plus, how politicians are pitching affordability. – New York Times

From a paper by Karan Bhasin, and Prakash Loungani:

“This paper introduces a hierarchical Large Language Model (LLM) framework for the automated identification of narrative fiscal shocks. We develop a multi-stage architecture to extract austerity episodes from IMF Article IV reports (2004–2020) for 17 OECD countries. Relative to manual coding, our approach improves replicability and auditability by generating a documented sequence of classification steps. Benchmarking against Adler et al. (2024), we find that the LLM-based classification aligns closely with the narrative benchmark, while differing on a small subset of episodes. Local projection estimates indicate that LLM-identified shocks are associated with smaller estimated multipliers than the narrative benchmark, with the difference linked in large part to differences in shock persistence and endogeneity.”