The Unassuming Economist

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Sunderji’s Paradox. Why rising incomes never seem to make rent more affordable – Home Economics
• The Condo Crisis. Prices are falling in most major metros – Home Economics
• Hartford tops Zillow’s forecast for hottest housing markets in 2026. Tight inventory is expected to define the most competitive markets in the year ahead. – Zillow
• Homes are on track to be affordable in 20 major US markets by year’s end. After years of strain, buyers should see small affordability wins this year – Zillow
• Inflation Outlook: It Is Not All About Housing – Apollo
• The Housing Markets Seeing the Sharpest Home Price Declines – Realtor.com
• February ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Home price growth slowed to its weakest pace in more than a decade”. Several Southern markets now have 10%+ mortgaged homes underwater – Calculated Risk
• Weaker Demand, Unchanged Lending Conditions for Residential Mortgages in Fourth Quarter – NAHB
• Trump wants lower mortgage rates. His Fed pick may push the other way. Kevin Warsh has long criticized the Fed’s $6.6 trillion balance sheet, arguing it distorts markets. Shrinking it could put upward pressure on mortgage rates. – Washington Post
• Where Are Mortgage Delinquencies Rising the Most? – New York Fed

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• The Size of the Housing Shortage: 2024 Data – NAHB
• The Sun Belt goes Vertical. A million new apartments, but still behind where coastal cities started. – Home Economics
• 2026 Housing Market Mood: Buyers Are Cautious, Sellers Are Showing Up, and Agents See Signs of Busier Spring Ahead – Redfin
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January – Calculated Risk
• Why Building Alone Won’t Solve the Housing Crisis. An imbalance in the kind of housing getting built and rising insurance costs are impeding housing progress, according to two new reports. – New York Times
• Developers are converting empty office buildings to keep up with demand for housing – NPR
• How Hosting the Super Bowl Signals a San Francisco Real Estate Renaissance – Realtor.com 
• Proposed Ban on Investors in the Housing Market Hits a Wall in Congress. White House is pressuring GOP in Congress to add an investor ban to existing housing bills, but lawmakers have pushed back – Wall Street Journal
• Foreclosure Activity Rises Annually for the Eleventh Straight Month, Extending the Trend into 2026 – ATTOM
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January – Calculated Risk

On other developments:    

• House Passes Major Housing Bill Aimed at Home Affordability and To Speed Up Construction – Realtor.com
• What Is the Housing for the 21st Century Act? – Realtor.com
• On housing, Trump’s problem isn’t willpower. It’s time. Some White House allies acknowledge what they face in the coming months is less a policy fight than a messaging battle on housing. – Politico
• Will Trump’s Order on Housing Help? – New York Times
• The Right Fix for Affordable Housing Finally Hit Congress – Bloomberg  
• California’s blockbuster housing legislation faces rocky rollout. State Sen. Scott Wiener, the author of Senate Bill 79, has not ruled out postponing the July 1 implementation date for the new law because of widespread confusion over what it requires. – Politico
• Unaffordable Housing Impacts How Americans Consume, Work and Invest. As housing prices climb out of reach, discouraged Americans may be reaching for crypto and other risky investments. – Bloomberg
• Maybe America Needs Some New Cities. It sounds a bit kooky to promise a whole city from scratch. But it has been done before — and might just help solve the housing crisis. – New York Times
• Two Decades of Zillow Data Show How the U.S. Housing Market Has Changed Since 2006. How shifting prices, rising housing wealth and a deepening supply gap have reshaped housing over the past 20 years – Zillow
• Homebuyers Are Gaining Leverage as Housing Market Cools—Giving Them More Time To Purchase – Realtor.com
• Is there an affordability crisis? – EconoFact Chats
• Trump housing policy is a mess and it won’t fix the US housing crisis. Deregulation alone can’t make homes affordable when rising inequality, not zoning, is what is driving prices up – The Guardian
• Is the Starter Home Making a Comeback? – Realtor.com
• Hearing on “Homeownership and the Role of the Secondary Mortgage Market”. History has proven that financial markets will provide funds for housing without the federal government socializing investors’ losses. – Cato

From a paper by Guivis Zeufack Nkemgha, Le Roi Nso Fils, and Ulrich Kevin Kamwa:

“This paper examines the impact of trade liberalisation on income inequality across 24 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 2000 to 2020. Using IV-Tobit and 2SLS models, we consistently find that greater trade openness significantly exacerbates inequality in the region. Critically, we document an inverted U-shaped relationship between trade and inequality—similar to the Laffer Curve—but this mitigating effect is only observed in high-income, less corrupt, and democratic SSA countries. In addition, trade openness demonstrates a dual, contradictory effect on inequality: the disruptive impact on employment significantly outweighs the mitigating effect of the education channel. This disparity underscores that without robust labour market and social protection policies, the negative employment consequences of trade liberalisation will dominate the potential equalising gains from human capital development.”

From a paper by Ali Moridian, Hassan Heidari, Seyed Mehdi Hosseini, and Heshmatolah Asgari:

“This study investigates the asymmetric effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and Oil Price Uncertainty (OPU) on inflation in Iran, using the Quantile-on-Quantile (QQ) regression method. Given Iran’s oil-dependent economy, the research aims to understand how global and domestic uncertainties impact inflation dynamics, particularly during economic turbulence. Traditional models often neglect the non-linear and heterogeneous effects of uncertainty on inflation, prompting the use of the QQ approach to capture the varying impacts across different quantiles.”

From a paper by Samina Iqbal, and Muhammad Faisal Khan:

“Inflation targeting (IT) has emerged as a dominant monetary policy framework adopted by central banks to enhance price stability and macroeconomic credibility. This study empirically examines the impact of inflation targeting on macroeconomic performance, focusing on inflation control, output stability, and economic growth. Using cross-country evidence from inflation targeting and non-inflation-targeting economies, the analysis evaluates whether IT frameworks deliver superior macroeconomic outcomes. The findings suggest that inflation targeting is associated with lower inflation volatility and improved policy transparency, though its effectiveness depends heavily on institutional strength, fiscal discipline, and financial market development. The study contributes to ongoing policy debates by highlighting both the benefits and limitations of inflation targeting in emerging and developing economies.”

From a paper by Deepak Kushawaha, Abhishek Gorsi, Ankit Singh Kharwar & Abhishek Singh:

“This paper explores the impact of renewable energy (RE) generation on energy inflation in India using an ARDL model with data from 1974 to 2023. The findings show that RE generation has a significant long-term positive effect on energy inflation, probably due to the high initial infrastructure costs. These results challenge the divine coincidence hypothesis, suggesting that while RE helps cut emissions, it might also drive-up inflation. This analysis does not critique RE development but highlights the need for a nuanced understanding of its economic impacts. To counteract these inflationary pressures, policies should focus on increasing investments in RE research and development, implementing effective energy storage solutions, and upgrading grid infrastructure to balance economic growth, inflation control, and environmental sustainability.”