The Unassuming Economist

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Mortgage Rates Increase Further as Inflation Remains Elevated – NAHB
• Mortgage Applications Retreat in May, with ARMs Gaining Share – NAHB
• June ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Annual home price growth was 1.0% in mid-May” – Calculated Risk
• ‘Rent now, pay later’ loans target US consumers squeezed by housing costs. Demand for short-term financing expands into rental market amid deepening affordability crisis – FT
• Rent Is So High, New Yorkers Are Living With Nuns. Convent boarding houses are affordable and clean, but there are rules: curfews, chores and sometimes nuns who vet boyfriends. – Wall Street Journal

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:     

• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in May – Calculated Risk
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.17 million SAAR in May. Median House Prices Increased 1.3% Year-over-Year – Calculated Risk
• May Home Sales Notched Their Biggest Rise This Year. Easing mortgage rates and an increase in inventory lured back buyers, boosting sales 3.2% for the month – Wall Street Journal
• Home Building Regulatory Cost Burdens Increased 40% from 2021 to 2026 – NAHB
• The US Is Building More Housing Near Transit, But Not Nearly Enough. Since the 1980s, many cities have embraced transit-oriented development policies to encourage more walkable neighborhoods. A new analysis shows how far they’ve come. – Bloomberg

On other developments:    

• Homelessness Declines but Remains Near Record High – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• A housing market on the precipice: New insights from the DMV Monitor – Brookings
• May 2026 Monthly Housing Report: Sellers Are Meeting the Market—and Buyers Are Showing Up – Realtor.com
• In These Cities, the Housing Market Runs on Generational Wealth – Realtor.com
• Addressing the Housing Affordability Crisis Requires Increasing Housing Supply and Expanding Rental Assistance – Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
• Foreclosure Filings Dip Month-Over-Month While Annual Trend Continues Upward – ATTOM
• These Young Politicians Want to Fix America’s Housing Problems. A cohort of young Millennial and Gen Z politicians have centered their campaigns this year on housing costs, and the divide is more generational than partisan. – New York Times

From a paper by Edson Roberto Vieira, Andréa Freire de Lucena, Antônio Marcos de Queiroz, Flávia Rezende Campos, and Vitor Pereira Salgado:

“This study aims to analyze the main benefits of Brazils potential accession to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), drawing on the experiences of Chile and Mexico. The Synthetic Control Method (SCM) will be employed, which involves constructing a counterfactual for an economy exposed to an intervention (OECD membership) by replicating the pre-intervention economic behavior of a comparable economy. The results indicate that OECD accession did not generate a significant difference in the economic performance of Chile and Mexico, which may discourage Brazil from adopting measures to pursue OECD membership.”

From a paper by Martin Boďa, Mariana Považanová, and Michaela Tichá:

“For 38 OECD countries during the period 1991–2022, the paper estimates time-varying trajectories of unemployment-based and employment-based Okun coefficients and studies their synchronicity. Schlicht’s VC method is utilized to estimate Okun coefficients and time-series clustering is applied to identify groups of economies with synchronous business cycle characteristics. The findings defy two prevalent beliefs of Okun’s law since many countries display constant or almost constant trajectories of the (un)employment-output sensitivity, and for many countries Okun’s law need not be stronger in a downturn. Furthermore, countries do not synchronize in their business cycle dynamics as shown in disparate trajectories of Okun coefficients, which argues against a single one-size-fits-all stabilization policy, certainly in less homogeneous economic blocks. Finally, there is strong evidence for labour market flows into and outside the labour force that are associated with informal sector size and translated into lesser sensitivity of official labour market variables across the business cycle.”

On cross-country:

• Real Estate Ranked: The World’s Hottest Luxury Housing Markets – Visual Capitalist
• The lost art of building cities – Work in Progress Newsletter

Working papers and conferences:  

• The Effect of Land Supply for New Homes on Residential Investment and House Prices – Boston Fed
• Housing Capital and Intergenerational Mobility in the United States – NBER
• Towards a Methodology for Measuring Rental Property Ownership in the United States – NBER
• Where Are the Economies of Scale in Homebuilding? – Construction Physics
• Tracking the Shift from Mortgage Refinancings to HELOCs – St. Louis Fed
• International Real Estate Conference on November 24-26 – ESPI

On China:

• China’s housing market could have further to fall. To make real estate attractive for investors, prices must go lower – FT
• China’s real estate funk drags down yet another sector: property service providers – Reuters

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Yes Australia’s house prices may fall – but the decades of unchecked property price growth were the true policy failure – The Guardian
• [Australia] House prices are falling in Australia. That’s a good thing – if you believe housing is a basic human need – The Guardian
• [Australia] House prices are falling in Australia. That’s a good thing – if you believe housing is a basic human need. Labor’s budget changes are not to blame for the recent dip in property prices. But the changes will help move housing away from investors – and that should be celebrated – The Guardian
• [New Zealand] New Zealand House Prices Stall as Buyers Remain Disinterested – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] New Zealand Home Building Hits 10-Year Low as House Prices Stall – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Canada] A 20% Housing Drop Still Leaves Canadians Locked Out of Market – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Cutting development fees alone won’t solve housing affordability, CMHC says – The Globe and Mail
• [Kazakhstan] Homes and Hopes: Mobilizing Private Capital for Affordable Housing and Family Investment in Kazakhstan – World Bank
• [Kenya] Kenya’s Affordable Housing Drive is Leaving Many People Homeless. Historic neighborhoods are being razed to make way for high rises, and the government doesn’t have a plan for relocating evicted residents. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] No, now is not the time for UK rent controls. Three think-tanks are promoting curbs to rental growth — but that horse has already bolted – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall in May amid Iran turmoil. Higher mortgage rates blamed for Nationwide index’s first monthly decline this year – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK monthly house prices fall for first time since start of Iran war, Nationwide says – Reuters

From a paper by Nezir Köse, and Emre Ünal:

“This study analyzes the impact of the oil price on income inequality in five major oil-exporting economies: Iran, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Russia, and Venezuela. Utilizing a panel cointegration approach alongside a country-specific SVAR framework, this research examines both the short- and long-run dynamics of the Gini coefficient to determine whether resource dependence shapes distributional outcomes. The empirical results reveal a significant, albeit modest, long-run relationship where sustained increases in the oil price contribute to reducing income inequality. However, the panel estimation finds no significant short-run effect, suggesting that immediate price shocks do not instantly alter distributional structures. The SVAR analysis uncovers substantial cross-country heterogeneity that aggregate models overlook. Variance decomposition indicates that oil price shocks account for a substantial share of inequality dynamics in Kazakhstan and Nigeria, whereas Russia, Iran, and Venezuela exhibit distinct structural adjustment patterns that implicitly reflect their macroeconomic and institutional architectures. Furthermore, GDP per capita demonstrates a consistent influence across both time horizons, underscoring the vital role of broader economic performance. These findings suggest that while oil revenues can act as a long-run stabilizing buffer, they are insufficient as a standalone solution. Consequently, policymakers should prioritize economic diversification and institutional reforms to foster more resilient, equitable growth trajectories independent of volatile global commodity cycles.”