The Unassuming Economist

On cross-country:

• Demographia International Housing Affordability, 2026 Edition – Chapman University
• Europe’s housing shortages are even worse than America’s. Why does nobody there talk about zoning? – The Works in Progress Newsletter

On China:

• China’s new home prices fall at faster pace in May on soft demand – Reuters

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Canadian housing starts fall 6% in May – Reuters
• [Canada] Canada Home Sales Rise a Second Straight Month as Buyers Return – Bloomberg
• [France] The “French model for financing purchases of primary residences” – Banque de France
• [Luxembourg] Luxembourg Housing Market: Cost Of Risk Remains In Check Amid Slow Rebound – S&P Global
• [Spain] Survey of Household Finances: is Spain not a country for the young? – CaixaBank
• [United Arab Emirates] Dubai Property Frenzy Cools But Sellers Hold the Line on Prices – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] ‘Time kills a deal’ more than ever in a slow housing market. In prime London, the ratio of homes under offer to fall-throughs has not been this high since the 2008 financial crisis. Imminent conveyancing reform needs to be radical – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rose by 3.8% in year to April, ONS says – Reuters

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• High US mortgage rates to keep housing market subdued: Reuters poll – Reuters
• The States Where Housing Prices Have Surged the Most (2021–2026) – Visual Capitalist
• How Mortgage Lock-In Is Quietly Pushing Up House Prices. A new paper co-authored by Wharton’s Lu Liu argues that homeowners stuck with low fixed mortgage rates aren’t just frozen in place — they’re propping up the housing market. – Wharton

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:     

• Residential Building Material Prices Rise at Highest Rate In Over Three Years – NAHB
• Lennar Cuts Full-Year Target, Citing ‘Stubborn’ Housing-Market Headwinds. The homebuilder says it now expects full-year deliveries of around 82,000 to 83,000 homes, citing high interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty. – Wall Street Journal
• Single-Family Permits Continue to Decline Through April as Multifamily Activity Strengthens – NAHB
• Builder Sentiment Remains Weak Amid Affordability Concerns – NAHB
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2026 – Calculated Risk
• Grading the States: Affordability & Homebuilding Report Cards—2026 Update – Realtor.com
• Housing Starts Decreased Sharply to 1.177 million Annual Rate in May. Lowest total starts annual rate since May 2020 (at the start of pandemic). 2026 – Calculated Risk
• U.S. Housing Starts Fell Sharply in May. Housing starts, a gauge of new residential construction, fell 15.4% in May to 1.177 million – Wall Street Journal
• High Costs and Slumping Demand Squeeze Housing as Affordable Units Remain in Short Supply – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• The Great American Housing Shortage Is Finally Forcing a Search for Solutions. ‘Granny flats’ in California and single-staircase codes in Texas: States are trying to fill a gap that has pushed homeownership out of reach for many – Wall Street Journal

On other developments:    

• Ten Takeaways from the 2026 State of the Nation’s Housing – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• The Landscape of Apartment Property Management – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• The “Home ATM” Mostly Closed in Q1. Total Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was Negative in Q1 – Calculated Risk
• As Cities Turn to AI To Lower Housing Costs, Data Center Backlash Grows – Realtor.com
• US real estate outlook – Edition June 2026. Stability returns as sectors diverge – UBS 
• Mamdani Is about to Make Housing Even More Expensive – Heritage Foundation
• Grading the States: Affordability & Homebuilding Report Cards — 2026 Update – Realtor.com
• Why is America’s capital of cheap retail becoming so expensive? Rapid growth puts housing affordability under strain in Walmart’s Arkansas heartland – FT
• Senate eyes vote on updated housing affordability legislation. The bill has gone back and forth between the House and the Senate for months. – Politico
• Congress Reaches Deal on Housing Bill – Wall Street Journal
• Bipartisan housing bill limiting investor home purchases is headed to Trump’s desk. The Senate voted 87-8 to advance the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which caps large investor single-family purchases at 350 homes – Quartz  

From a paper by Andre Harrison & Jeremy Viele:

“We use a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to study the effects of oil market shocks on US labor productivity and employment hours, where identification occurs through a combination of short- and long-run exclusion restrictions. The results show that labor productivity is responsive to all sides of the oil market, with employment hours responding only to demand-side forces. Further, oil market shocks explain roughly 25% of the long-run variation in both variables. Among oil market shocks, oil-specific demand shocks contribute to most of the historical fluctuations in labor productivity, while aggregate demand shocks matter most for fluctuations in employment hours.”

From a paper by Samantha Coccia & Alberto Russo:

“This paper reviews the transmission channels of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy, including income composition, earnings heterogeneity, interest rate exposure, savings redistribution, inflation tax, portfolio composition, and household debt, with a focus on their impact on income and wealth inequality. The survey highlights the crucial role of household heterogeneity in shaping the transmission of monetary policy and its differential effects on income and wealth distribution. These effects operate through several factors, including the primary source of income, employment status, net debtor or net saver positions, differences in portfolio composition, and debt levels. The paper also discusses the shadow banking sector to illustrate the relationship between monetary policy and inequality in a complex financial system. Overall, the paper provides policymakers with a guide to the multifaceted nature of the monetary policy–inequality nexus, given the pervasiveness of household heterogeneity. It also suggests avenues for further research on the combined effects of different transmission channels using macroeconomic models suited to this purpose, such as agent-based models (ABM) with heterogeneous interacting agents.”

On cross-country:

• Global real estate outlook – Edition June 2026. Middle East conflict is creating uncertainty – UBS

Working papers and conferences:  

• What 30 Million Applications Reveal about Mortgage Denial Thresholds – St. Louis Fed
• Measuring Housing Quality Using Revealed Preference: A Geographic PageRank Approach – NBER
• The pros and cons of sectoral macroprudential policy – National Bank of Belgium
• Felt but Unseen: The Lesser-Known Forces Influencing Home Prices – Philadelphia Fed

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Aussie home prices set for weakest growth in four years as rates bite – Reuters
• [Australia] Australian housing was already cooling before the budget – but how cold it gets depends on two key factors – The Guardian
• [Australia] Australia tries to fix its housing crisis. Will it work? Anthony Albanese is aiming to undo decades of tax incentives and make property more affordable for younger buyers – FT
• [Australia] For those shedding a tear over house prices falling, these numbers may change your mind. An average home would cost $595,500 now if prices were the same relative to income as before John Howard turned the market into an investor casino – The Guardian
• [Australia] Can a correction fix Australia’s housing market? Anthony Albanese is aiming to undo decades of tax incentives and make property more affordable for younger buyers – FT

On other countries:  

• [Canada] How the Squamish built Senakw. Just outside downtown Vancouver, the Squamish Nation is building one of the most ambitious and unusual housing developments in the world and getting rich in the process. – Work in Progress Newsletter
• [China] China’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Cyprus] Cyprus’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Germany] Germany’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Iran] Tehran property prices pick up as gold loses shine. Long-stagnant housing market has seen an unexpected revival as Iranians seek refuge from rampant inflation – FT
• [Netherlands] How ING uses agentic AI to speed up mortgage decisions – ING
• [Netherlands] The Netherlands’ Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Spain] A 20% Bruselas advierte a España de que los altos precios de la vivienda dificultan la movilidad de los trabajadores y la competitividad de la Economía. La Comisión reclama a los Gobiernos “una acción decisiva” ante un problema que “socavará la cohesión social” – El Pais
• [Switzerland] Switzerland Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall for third successive month amid Iran war uncertainty. Unexpected monthly drop of 0.1% in May leaves price of typical home at £298,806, says lender Halifax – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Housing Market Update – June 2026 – Savills
• [United Kingdom] Homeowners are getting used to the UK’s perma-crisis. Households appear to have adapted to a constant state of flux – FT