The Unassuming Economist

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• How Austin’s stunning drop in rents explains housing in America. We finally have some good news about housing affordability. – Vox
• Higher rents keep men at home – AIBM
• Don’t overlook these two big parts of your housing payment. Not all monthly costs are tied to mortgage rates. – Washington Post
• America’s Rising Debt Could Keep Mortgage Rates High—and Housing Expensive – Realtor.com
• The Austin Experience: More Housing, Lower Rents – Timothy Taylor

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• D.C. mayoral candidates want to build more housing — but investors don’t. Plans by Janeese Lewis George and Kenyan R. McDuffie to increase the housing supply and lower costs for renters are different in scope, but they face the same hurdles. – Washington Post
• Rehabilitating Housing Supply: Evidence from an Institutional Investor’s Acquisition, Renovation, and Market Position – AEI
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.98 million SAAR in March. Median House Prices Increased 1.4% Year-over-Year – Calculated Risk
• Existing Home Sales Fell in March – NAHB
• Single-Family Permits Decline Sharply to Start 2026 – NAHB
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2026 – Calculated Risk
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2026 – Calculated Risk
• The war in Iran hits home as housing rebound stalls. Home sales and mortgage applications have slumped as higher rates weigh on consumers. That spells trouble for the GOP’s pledges to address housing affordability. – Politico
• Higher Energy Prices Increase Residential Construction Costs – NAHB
• What the Economic Report of the President Gets Wrong and Right About Housing Supply – Cato Institute
• White House Promises ‘Trump Boom’ of New Housing by Cutting Red Tape – Realtor.com
• ‘Chilling effect’: The housing shortage could have a money problem. The housing legislation that has some long-term rental homes hanging in the balance has been held up over differing views between the House and the Senate. – Politico
• Empty Department Stores Are Housing Cleveland’s Booming Population. Historic buildings are being reimagined as modern apartments, attracting young renters, empty nesters and reverse commuters – Wall Street Journal
• Builder Sentiment Posts Notable Decline on Economic Uncertainty – NAHB
• When more housing becomes a hard sell
• The U.S. agrees it needs more homes, but fights over where and how reveal deeper conflicts about growth and change. – Slow Boring

On other developments:    

• Housing and Demographics – Calculated Risk
• Real estate stocks and housing affordability. The spring housing season is here. Where are real estate stocks? – Fidelity
• March 2026 Luxury Housing Report: Pure Luxury—Where Luxury Is the Norm – Realtor.com
• Housing Problems are Political, Not Economic – Real Estate Decoded
• The Housing Market Is More Fragmented Than Ever—Here’s a New Way To Understand the Data – Realtor.com
• America’s Furniture Stores Struggle to Survive a Frozen Housing Market. Retailers are going bankrupt and liquidating as record-low housing turnover leaves fewer customers looking to furnish homes. – New York Times
• Will Americans want more housing if it looks prettier? Maybe a little bit, but I have my doubts. – Noahpinion
• AI use in housing is booming. The rules to keep it fair are shrinking. The Trump administration is rolling back civil rights protections that have been used to challenge bias in housing. – Politico
• Trump has not done enough to tackle soaring housing costs, real estate billionaire says. Republican donor Stephen Ross argues housing affordability is ‘going to be the biggest issue’ in US – FT 
• Michigan zoning plan sparks affordability debate – Axios
• Big spending on social housing is untenable in this economy. The D.C. mayoral candidate’s dueling plans: Bold and unrealistic vs. modest and achievable. – Washington Post 
• A New Mandate: Redevelopment Authorities and Social Housing in Massachusetts – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Market Clock 2026 Q1: The Most Fragmented Housing Market in Years – Realtor.com
• Make Housing More Affordable – CEPR
• A Quick Visit to the Housing Market – CEPR
• Golden Years Postponed: How Expensive Housing Markets Are Keeping Older Homeowners Employed – Realtor.com
• How Homeownership Helps Build Wealth. Mortgage modifications during the Great Recession helped distressed borrowers keep their homes and accumulate more capital gains wealth, a new Wharton study finds. – Wharton
• The war in Iran hits home as housing rebound stalls. Home sales and mortgage applications have slumped as higher rates weigh on consumers. That spells trouble for the GOP’s pledges to address housing affordability. – Politico
• Foreclosure Activity Rises in Q1 2026 as Market Continues to Normalize – ATTOM

From a paper by Luis I. Jacome, Nicolas E. Magud, Samuel Pienknagura, and Martın Uribe:

“We explore the historical link between populist regimes, fiscal monetization, and inflation, and how these links affect monetary policy in the 21st century. Using data for a large set of advanced economies and emerging markets since 1960, we show that, historically, left-leaning populist regimes are linked to increases in central bank lending to the central government, a gauge of deficit monetization. In turn, central bank lending is associated with marked increases in inflation. We show that past exposure to populism that relied on deficit monetization affects the conduct of monetary policy today. Countries with a history of deficit monetization and left-wing populist regimes systematically respond more strongly to deviations of inflation expectations from target. This effect persists even after controlling for the direct effect of past inflation on monetary policy rules. In the context of the literature of experienced learning, this novel finding sheds light on the persistence of past populist policies—central banks operating under the shadow of past populist regimes that relied on inflation-prone deficit monetization continue today needing to send stronger signals of their independence and commitment to price stability to effectively anchor inflation expectations.”

From a paper by Giuseppe Pio Dachille, Antonio Dalla Zuanna, Monica Paiella, and Eliana Viviano:

“We quantify how the employment expansion accompanying Italy’s post-pandemic recovery mitigated the distributional consequences of the contemporaneous surge in prices, which disproportionately affected households at the bottom of the expenditure distribution. Using linked administrative employment records and household survey and expenditure data, we examine labour income dynamics, employment transitions, differential inflation exposure, and the redistributive role of the tax–benefit system for Italian households without pension or self-employment income over 2018–2023. Despite elevated inflation, households in the lowest expenditure quintile experienced gains in real labour income, whereas those higher in the distribution did not. The decline in inequality is driven primarily by employment entry among previously non-employed household members, while adjustments among continuously employed workers played a limited role. Extensive-margin gains reflect stronger demand for low-skilled labour rather than differential labour-supply responses to inflation. Microsimulations indicate that fiscal measures cushioned disposable incomes at the bottom but did not alter the central role of employment growth in shaping distributional outcomes.”

From a paper by Maridueña-Larrea, Ángel and Martín-Román, Ángel L:

“This study assesses the empirical validity, heterogeneity, and spatial dependence of Okun’s Law
in a global setting. Using annual data for 163 countries over the period 1992–2023, we estimate
country-specific unemployment–output elasticities under two standard specifications (output-gap
and first-difference models) and allow for cyclical asymmetries by distinguishing expansionary and
recessionary phases. The results indicate that Okun’s coefficient is negative and statistically
significant in most countries, although its magnitude is highly heterogeneous and varies
systematically across income groups. Controlling for the common 2020 shock (COVID-19) does
not meaningfully alter statistical significance for most countries, but it generates economically
relevant shifts in the coefficient’s magnitude for a non-negligible subset, thus improving
cross-country comparability. We also document pronounced asymmetry: elasticities are, on
average, stronger during recessions than expansions, particularly among middle- and high-income
economies. Moran’s I statistics reveal positive and significant spatial autocorrelation in cyclical
sensitivities across alternative k-nearest-neighbour weighting matrices, with stronger dependence
during recessions. These findings motivate the design of countercyclical labour-market policies
tailored to structural heterogeneity and coordinated regionally during downturns.”

On cross-country:

• House prices up by 5.1% in the euro area – Eurostat
• EU house prices soar 65% over a decade, rents lag behind – The Brussels Times 
• How can African cities fund growth? Astrid Haas joins us to discuss why African cities are so fiscally constrained, and what reforms in Mexico, the Philippines, and Sierra Leone can teach us. – Ideas in Development  
• New study reveals why housing booms and busts are built into the system. Some policies make it easy – and tempting – for people to gamble on rising house prices – King’s College London

Working papers and conferences:

• The Impact of House Prices on Internal Migration: Case of Spain – IMF
• What goes up, must come down: speculation-encouraging institutions and house price cycles across countries – Socio-Economic Review
• Cyclical Determinants of Regional House Prices in Poland – Cracow University of Technology Poland

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Toronto Home Prices Slip Back to 2020 Levels as Turmoil Lingers – Bloomberg
• [Mongolia] Improving Housing Can Create Jobs in Mongolia’s Cities – World Bank
• [United Kingdom] Stagflation fears demolish confidence in UK housing. Shares across the sector are taking a beating – FT
• [United Kingdom] Renters’ Rights Act brings big changes to UK property market. New rules aim to provide safety and security for tenants, but landlords are anxious – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall in March as uncertainty over Middle East war weighs on demand. Halifax reports market slowdown as mortgage rates rise – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall in March amid uncertain impact of Middle East conflict. Average price dips back below £300,000 after higher energy costs have knock-on effect on mortgage rates – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] The hangover from Britain’s student housing boom. Concerns about affordability and community impact are mounting, even as purpose-built accommodation gains traction elsewhere – FT