The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Nezir Köse, and Emre Ünal:

“This study analyzes the impact of the oil price on income inequality in five major oil-exporting economies: Iran, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Russia, and Venezuela. Utilizing a panel cointegration approach alongside a country-specific SVAR framework, this research examines both the short- and long-run dynamics of the Gini coefficient to determine whether resource dependence shapes distributional outcomes. The empirical results reveal a significant, albeit modest, long-run relationship where sustained increases in the oil price contribute to reducing income inequality. However, the panel estimation finds no significant short-run effect, suggesting that immediate price shocks do not instantly alter distributional structures. The SVAR analysis uncovers substantial cross-country heterogeneity that aggregate models overlook. Variance decomposition indicates that oil price shocks account for a substantial share of inequality dynamics in Kazakhstan and Nigeria, whereas Russia, Iran, and Venezuela exhibit distinct structural adjustment patterns that implicitly reflect their macroeconomic and institutional architectures. Furthermore, GDP per capita demonstrates a consistent influence across both time horizons, underscoring the vital role of broader economic performance. These findings suggest that while oil revenues can act as a long-run stabilizing buffer, they are insufficient as a standalone solution. Consequently, policymakers should prioritize economic diversification and institutional reforms to foster more resilient, equitable growth trajectories independent of volatile global commodity cycles.”

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• New Home vs. Existing Home Prices in Q1 2026 – NAHB
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in April; Up 1.4% Year-over-year. Punta Gorda House Prices Down 21% from Recent Peak, Austin Down 17% – Calculated Risk
• Mortgage rates are hovering at their highest point since last August. The 30-year fixed rate climbed to 6.53% this week as uncertainty over the Iran war weighs on borrowers and lenders – Quartz
• US new home sales slump in April amid higher mortgage rates, prices – Reuters
• Zillow downgrades its home price forecast across 400-plus housing markets—see the data. Zillow predicts that national housing affordability may improve slightly as U.S. income growth outpaces U.S. home price growth. – Fast Company
• A.I. Boom Upends San Francisco Housing Market. The Bay Area boasts the highest median home prices in the country and experienced the sharpest annual price increases. – New York Times
• Mortgage Lenders Shift Focus to Enhancing the Consumer Experience – Fannie Mae
• Single-Family AD&C Lending Edges Higher in Q1 – NAHB
• Asking Rents Continue to Decline Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• House Price Appreciation by State and Metro Area in the First Quarter of 2026 – NAHB

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:     

• New Home Sales Decrease to 622,000 Annual Rate in April. Median New Home Price is Down 15% from the Peak due to Change in Mix – Calculated Risk
• Housing Supply Is Not Primarily a Financing Problem – AEI
• L.A.’s Plan To Build Half a Million New Homes Is Drawing Major Developer Interest – Realtor.com
• he Barriers to Building More Housing – New York Times
• HBGI Q1 2026: Single-Family Construction Slips Across All Geographies – NAHB
• Slight Increase for Construction Job Openings – NAHB
• Highest Paid Occupations in Construction in 2025 – NAHB

On other developments:    

• New Home Sales Down in April on Affordability Concerns – NAHB  
• Real-Estate Agents Are Quitting the Slow Housing Market. In the fourth year of a struggling market, even real-estate professionals who made it this far are reaching a breaking point – Wall Street Journal
• By 2064, the Global Population Could Be Halved in a Worst-Case Scenario—but Housing Affordability Poses a Far More Immediate Risk – Realtor.com
• Lenders and Real Estate Agents Still Beat Online Sources as Top Mortgage Influencers… For Now – Fannie Mae
• Louisiana is criminalizing a housing problem. Without addressing the underlying housing shortage, the bill risks creating a cycle of repeat arrests that effectively turns jail cells into expensive temporary shelters. – Reason
• An Interview with Jim the Realtor – Calculated Risk
• Berkshire Is Convinced the American Dream of Homeownership Will Stay Alive. Under its new chief executive, Greg Abel, Berkshire raises its bet on a market recovery by adding another housing company to its portfolio – Wall Street Journal
• Over 100,000 Tech Workers Have Been Laid Off This Year Already. Where Will They Move Next? – Realtor.com
• This Housing Bill Is Progress, Not Perfection. The House-amended 21st Century Road to Housing Act will has a meaningful effect, increasing housing supply across the country. – Wall Street Journal
• The AI Premium: How AI Boom Is Reshaping Bay Area Luxury Home Buying – Realtor.com
• Housing policies in Saint Paul yield mixed results, data and developers say. New Minneapolis Fed data dashboard highlights housing challenges and opportunities in Minnesota’s capital city – Minneapolis Fed
• Saint Paul Housing Dashboard. Minneapolis Fed launches new tool to inform housing policy in Saint Paul, Minnesota – Minneapolis Fed
• Unemployment and Foreclosure Rates Drive Housing Market Risk – ATTOM

From a paper by Diego Andrés Cardoso López, Jesús Antonio López Cabrera & Tatiana Isabel
Caly Amador:

“Rural employment is pivotal to achieving the SDGs but remains structurally vulnerable—marked by high informality, seasonality, and climate exposure—which may weaken the canonical growth–unemployment link posited by Okun’s Law. In Latin America, where rural economies rely on climate-sensitive activities, temperature and precipitation shocks can disrupt productivity and labor absorption, calling for a reassessment of Okun’s relationship in rural contexts. This article analyzes the relationship between rural unemployment, real income growth, and climate variability in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico from 2012 to 2024 using a Panel Vector Autoregression (P-VARX) model. Results indicate that, contrary to Okun’s prediction, real income growth does not always lower rural unemployment. Climate shocks matter: in Brazil, higher temperatures decrease unemployment in short-run; in Colombia, precipitation shocks—with lags—increase unemployment; and in Mexico, temperature shocks lift unemployment on impact before a partial correction. Human capital reduces unemployment only in Colombia. Based on this evidence, we outline four policy directions: (i) mainstream climate adaptation into rural labor policy; (ii) expand inclusive employment programs that tackle informality and low productivity while aligning skills with labor demand; (iii) invest in rural education and targeted skilling for green and youth employment; and (iv) promote territorial, multisectoral local development and job creation with strong institutional support.”

From a paper by M. Krishna Naidu, and Dasari Rajesh Babu:

“India’s monetary buildup and structure changed substantially with the official adoption of Flexible Inflation Targeting in 2016, formalised through amendments to the Reserve Bank of India Act and operationalised by a statutory six-member Monetary Policy Committee. In this paper, we conduct a systematic conceptual analysis of the multifaceted impact of FIT on macroeconomic consistency in India, including price stability, output dynamics, exchange rate behaviour, monetary transmission efficacy, fiscal-monetary coordination, and the formation of inflation expectations. The study uses longitudinal data of macroeconomic parameters over 12 years (2012-2024). The methodology is a mixed-methods conceptual framework that includes descriptive statistical analysis, regime-phase comparisons, six-channel transmission mapping, and international bench marking with 7 inflation-targeting economies. The analysis shows a large fall in headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation from an average of 9.85% (2012-2016) before the IT. The paper’s conceptual contribution is the development of a cohesive analytical framework that concurrently assesses aims, scope, limitations, transmission channels, and cross-national insights. The findings affirm that India’s FIT is a conditionally effective regime—effective in managing expectations and reducing Inflation, but requiring institutional complementary to achieve the full macroeconomic stability benefit.”

On cross-country:

• BIS residential property price statistics, Q4 2025. Real global house prices fell by 0.6% year on year (yoy) at the end of 2025. Real prices were almost stable in advanced economies, while they continued to decrease in emerging market economies, especially in Asia. – BIS
• Global House Price Index: 1, 5 & 10 Year Changes by Country – Global Property Guide
• An Extreme Housing Bubble’s Cautionary Tale for the Rest of the World – Bloomberg

Working papers and conferences:

• Industrial Concentration, Property Values, and Municipal Bond Spreads – NBER
• The Heterogeneous Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy – NBER 
• Rental Prices and the Cost of Living in the United States, 1914-2006 – Philadelphia Fed
• Failing the Threshold: The Impact of Rising Interest Rates on Mortgage Borrowing – St. Louis Fed

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Insights From New Data on Australian Housing Investors – Reserve Bank of Australia
• [Australia] How Australia’s Housing Market Became So Out of Reach. Ballooning property prices and rents have caused a housing affordability crisis in Australia. Can the government’s planned changes to property taxes fix the problem? – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Can Australia make housing more affordable without hurting tech start-ups? – The Straits Times
• [Australia] Australia’s property lobby would have us believe investors are selfless public servants. It’s just profiteering. Labor is right to wind back a system where taxpayers spend billions lining the pockets of those who treat housing like an asset class, not a basic need – The Guardian
• [New Zealand] The World’s Most Extreme Housing Boom Is Now Roiling an Entire Economy. New Zealand’s downturn shows the difficult trade-offs governments face in trying to restore home affordability. – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] Why New Zealand’s Housing Bubble Burst – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Cyprus] Cyprus’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Italy] Italy’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Georgia] Georgia’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Switzerland] Housing squeeze in Swiss boom region fuels support for population cap – Reuters
• [Taiwan] Taiwan’s Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [United Kingdom] Time to ‘do the splits’ on your mortgage? Overstretched borrowers are finding ways to alleviate the pain of higher interest rates – FT