The Unassuming Economist

On cross-country:

• BIS residential property price statistics, Q4 2024 – BIS
• Global Real Estate Outlook – Edition May 2025. Market to pause and reflect – UBS
• Solving Africa’s Housing Deficit – CSIS
• Shops make a city great. The missing piece in our urbanist discussion. – Noahpinion 
• Monetary policy transmission: from mortgage rates to consumption – European Central Bank
• European homeowners face rising mortgage costs until 2030. Many fixed-rate loans taken out in era of low and negative interest rates are now coming to an end, the ECB warns – FT

Working papers and conferences:

• Macro reforms for housing affordability – Analysis & Policy Observatory
• The Effect of Airbnb on Housing Prices: Evidence from the 2017 Solar Eclipse – SSRN
• Global Housing Returns, and the Emergence of the Safe Asset, 1465-2024 – SSRN  

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Federal government’s ‘affordable housing’ strategy doomed without strong income growth – Fraser Institute
• [Canada] Ontario government will spend more—for less housing – Fraser Institute
• [Canada] Housing use of immigrants and non-permanent residents in ownership and rental markets – Statistics Canada
• [Germany] German home prices to rise 3% this year on tight supply; affordability to worsen – Reuters
• [Singapore] Singapore’s housing challenge: why some young adults still live with their parents. High property costs and cultural norms keep many Singaporeans living with parents, as singles face challenges buying homes as adults – South China Morning Post
• [United Kingdom] Ministers explore plans to ease rules for small builders in England. Industry welcomes drive to unblock development but warns mortgage lending reform is still needed – FT

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.4% year-over-year in March – Calculated Risk
• Case-Shiller Home Price Index Increases 3.4% in March – Realtor.com
• U.S. House Prices Rise 4.0 Percent over the Prior Year; Up 0.7 Percent from the Fourth Quarter of 2024 – FHFA
• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak. Price-to-rent index is 8.1% below 2022 peak – Calculated Risk
• House Prices Outpaced Income Growth Over the Past 40 Years – statista 
• The luxury housing market is cracking — and tech-heavy cities are getting hit hardest. The affluent are growing skittish because of layoffs and rising uncertainty – Quartz
• Housing market shift: 80 major markets that are seeing falling home prices. Among the 300 largest metro-area housing markets, 80 are seeing falling home prices on a year-over-year basis, according to ResiClub’s monthly analysis. – Fast Company
• Home Prices Dip for the First Time Since March as Housing Market Cools – Realtor.com
• 94% Multifamily Built-for-Rent Share – NAHB
• Interest rates, term premia, and mortgages…They’re all going up. – Jared Bernstein
• Mortgage Interest Rates Today: Mortgage Rates Spike After U.S. Loses Its Top Credit Rating – Realtor.com
• US housing finance chief tells Powell to lower interest rates – The Hill
• The risk to the housing market if Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac conservatorship ends. On Friday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be on the agenda after trade deals and taxes. – Fast Company

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 million SAAR in April; Down 2.0% YoY – Calculated Risk
• Existing Home Sales Fall in April – NAHB
• Lower prices boost new US home sales; outlook downbeat amid higher mortgages – Reuters
• Home Sales in April Fell for the Second Straight Month. The slowest sales pace for any April in 16 years indicates the spring selling season is shaping up as a bust – Wall Street Journal
• Home sales are stuck — and prices are still rising. A tight market is becoming a full-blown affordability crisis as existing home sales stall, prices climb, and mortgage rates top 7% – Quartz
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in April and a Look Ahead to May Sales – Calculated Risk
• New Home Sales Up in April Despite Stubbornly High Rates – Realtor.com
• Housing Slowing Down – Apollo
• Fewer building restrictions, more housing: Examining builders’ response to demand – Zillow
• Building Material Price Growth Minimal in April – NAHB
• Texas Revs the Growth Machine – Reason
• Homebuilder unsold inventory swells to 2009 levels: Housing markets to watch. There’s greater slack in the new-construction market now than a few years ago, giving buyers some leverage in certain markets to negotiate better deals. – Fast Company

On other developments:    

• Cleveland’s Housing Bargain Bonanza as It Surges Among the Most Affordable Housing Markets – Realtor.com
• Volatile Spring Selling Season Continues – NAHB
• Event: The State of the Nation’s Housing 2025 on June 24 – Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Congress Should Repeal the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit, Not Expand It – Cato Institute
• Housing Market Gets a Shot of Good News – Wall Street Journal 
• U.S.-China Tariff Tension Could Hit These California Housing Markets – Realtor.com
• Affordable Housing Is Almost Pointless – Marginal Revolution
• This State Is Where Young People Prefer To Buy Property the Most – Realtor.com
• Denver Housing Market Is Hit With an Explosion of Listings—How Far Could Home Prices Fall? – Realtor.com

From a paper by Remi Jedwab, Brian Blankespoor, Takaaki Masaki, and Carlos Rodríguez-Castelán:

“What are the spillover effects of foreign conflicts on regional economies, and what local factors can help mitigate the impact of such economic shocks? Adopting a difference-in-difference framework leveraging the breakout of the Boko Haram insurgency in Northeastern Nigeria in 2009, we study its effects in neighboring areas in Cameroon, Chad and Niger that were not directly targeted by Boko Haram activities until the mid 2010s. We find strong negative effects on regional economic activities – proxied by reductions in nighttime lights – particularly amongst areas within 200 km from the Boko Haram area. This negative impact is concentrated in urban areas, as trade was impacted and economic uncertainty rose. The rise of Boko Haram also resulted in more agricultural burning. Foreign conflict shocks can thus accentuate pressure on domestic resources. Focusing on the heterogeneity of the impacts, we find smaller resilience effects in those areas with a worse geography, less agricultural development, more limited infrastructure, and weaker markets and institutions. Overall, these findings suggest that conflicts may have larger spillover effects in geographically challenging and/or economically poorer regions, as is the case in various regions of Africa.”

Working papers and conferences:

• Is there club convergence in the European housing markets? – IDEAS
• Missing Home-Buyers and Rent Inflation: The Role of Interest Rates and Mortgage Underwriting Standards – IMF
• Why Is Geographic Mobility Declining? – Richmond Fed

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Labor wants to fix Australia’s housing issues – but there’s little hope for those not already on the ladder. Without genuine reform, experts predict house prices to ‘climb by 6-10% in 2025’ and the gap between homeowners and those locked out of market to widen – The Guardian
• [Australia] Housing policy outlook clears after Federal Election in Australia – Oxford Economics

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Toronto home sellers are slashing prices, offering big discounts – Bloomberg
• [Germany] Real estate prices on the rise, especially in major cities – KIEL
• [Germany] German property prices rise sharply across seven biggest cities – Yahoo Finance
• [Mexico] El precio de la vivienda en México crece 8,2% en 2025, más del doble que la inflación. El precio promedio de una propiedad es de 1,8 millones de pesos, pese a que se ha desacelerado el incremento de precios – El Pais
• [Singapore] Forum: Housing agents not to blame for unrealistic price expectations – The Straits Times
• [Spain] BBVA Research: La escasez de oferta y la presión de la demanda impulsarán el precio de la vivienda un 7,3% en 2025 y un 5,3% en 2026 – BBVA
• [Sweden] Swedes’ Housing Optimism Weakens With Lower Consumer Confidence – Bloomberg

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Map Shows Where Prices Are Dropping for Newly Built Homes as Builders Target Smaller Floor Plans – Realtor.com
• Widespread softening: Almost every major housing market is seeing softer pricing. Among the nation’s 50 largest metro-area housing markets, 49 have a weaker year-over-year home-price shift this spring than a year ago. – Fast Company
• Mortgage Rates for New Homes Are Typically Lower, New Research Finds – Realtor.com
• Residential Mortgages Experience Weaker Demand in First Quarter – NAHB
• Rent Prices Are Falling—but These 5 Coastal Cities Remain the Least Affordable – Realtor.com
• MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q1 2025 – Calculated Risk  
• Q1 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Increase – Calculated Risk
• 2 Southern States Lead the U.S. With the Highest Number of Foreclosures – Realtor.com

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• 37 housing markets where sellers hold the most power heading into summer 2025. Among the nation’s 200 largest housing markets, 37 still have significantly less housing inventory than they did in April 2019. – Fast Company
• The Spring Home Sales Season Is Shaping Up to Be a Dud. Inventory is rising, but high home prices and mortgage rates are putting off buyers during the prime selling season – Wall Street Journal
• Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending May 3, 2025 – Realtor.com
• Home Listings Surge to 6-Year High—but Cautious Buyers Hold Back – Realtor.com
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in April – Calculated Risk
• New-Construction Insights: Builders Deliver Smaller and More Affordable Homes in These Metros, but Tariffs Threaten Progress – Realtor.com
• Highest Paid Occupations in Construction in 2024 – NAHB
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025 – Calculated Risk
• Permit Activity Declines in March 2025 – NAHB
• First-Time Home Buyers Are Struggling. That’s Bad News for Builders. Even with construction companies offering cheap mortgages, youngish people are finding it difficult to enter the market – Wall Street Journal
• What is driving up housing costs across the US? – Brookings
• Soft Spring Selling Season Takes a Toll on Builder Confidence – NAHB

On other developments:    

• What Abundance Lacks. A bestselling progressive book gets its policy all wrong. – Foreign Policy
• US House to Claw Back Biden’s Climate Law to Fund Trump Tax Cuts – Bloomberg
• What’s new in building beautifully. Interesting developments from the last two decades – The Works in Progress Newsletter