The Unassuming Economist

On cross-country:

• A new measure of quality of life explains why people like living in bigger cities – LSE
• Housing policy action – OECD
• Housing the Economy – National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Working papers and conferences:

• 5th Workshop on Rent Control on June 19-20, 2025 – German Institute for Economic Research
• Housing Prices Propagation: A Theory of Spatial Interactions – CEPR
• Dynamic Urban Economics – NBER
• The scarring of the Great Recession on construction labor and housing supply – Real Estate Economics
• The Impact of Prudential Regulations on the UK Housing Market and Economy: Insights from an Agent-Based Model – SSRN
• The Determinants of Local Housing Supply in England – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Evidence suggests U.S. house price/rent ratio, real home prices to decline – Dallas Fed
• Housing market map: Zillow just revised its 2025 home price forecast. Zillow projects that U.S. home prices will rise 1.1% between January 2025 and January 2026. – Fast Company
• Some Good News For Homebuyers: Slower Price Growth, More Supply and More Bargaining Power – Redfin
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December – Calculated Risk
• New and Existing Home Price Gap Shrinking – NAHB
• US house prices increase strongly in December – Reuters
• Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey – Mortgage Bankers Association
• Mortgage Rates Tick Down to 6.85% as Spring Selling Season Approaches – Realtor.com
• Mortgage Rates Drop to Their Lowest Level in 2 Months, Upping Purchasing Power and Giving Homebuyers Window of Opportunity – Realtor.com
• Biden’s Mortgage ‘Relief’ Fuels Higher Housing Prices. It has created another subprime housing bubble and put taxpayers at risk. Trump should end it. – Wall Street Journal
• Housing market outlook: What forecasters see mortgage rates doing through 2026. A roundup of quarterly mortgage rate forecasts shows that most forecasters still expect mortgage rates to gradually decrease over the next 18 months. – Fast Company
• Refinance Activity Up Again During Fourth Quarter Despite Broader U.S. Downturn in Home Mortgages – ATTOM  
• Housing market outlook: What forecasters see mortgage rates doing through 2026. A roundup of quarterly mortgage rate forecasts shows that most forecasters still expect mortgage rates to gradually decrease over the next 18 months. – Fast Company
• California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets – Calculated Risk
• Existing Home Sales Slow in January – NAHB
• US existing home sales fall more than expected in January – Reuters
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January. Median House Prices Increased 4.8% Year-over-Year – Calculated Risk
• U.S. New-Home Sales Slump at Start of 2025. Sales of new single-family homes fell 10.5% in January from the month before – Wall Street Journal
• New-Home Sales Slip in January – Realtor.com
• Why is America still building houses in climate danger zones? Developers are constructing more in high-risk areas — illustrating the twin challenges of adapting to severe weather while addressing a housing shortage – FT
• Housing market inventory offers a hint of what’s to come. New data indicates that national active housing inventory for sale is likely to increase this year. That will give buyers more power. – Fast Company
• Townhouse Construction Expanded in 2024 – NAHB
• Gains for Custom Home Building – NAHB
• Single-Family Home Size Increases – NAHB
• Multifamily Unit Size Increases – NAHB
• Fact Check: Do red states build more housing per capita than blue states? – Econofact
• Homebuilder Earnings – Erdmann Housing Tracker
• Year-over-Year Gain for Multifamily Missing Middle – NAHB
• Home Depot Says More Homeowners Will Start Renovating as Mortgage Rates ‘Freeze’ Housing Market – Realtor.com    
• Built-for-Rent Housing Remains Elevated – National Association of Realtors

On the US—other developments:    

• A Rollercoaster Housing Market – Morgan Stanley
• February 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• Housing Market Gets Worrying Sign – Newsweek
• Demand v supply outlook. The Housing Crisis: Build Smarter, Not Just Taller – Matusik Missive
• Black first-time home buyers see strongest rebound as national rates decline – Zillow
• Trump administration looks to slash HUD workers tackling the housing crisis – AP
• Will Young People Ever Be Able to Own a Home and Will the Media Ask Under Trump? – CEPR 
• Since February is Black History Month here are 12 “Secrets” of U.S. Black Home Ownership – Real Estate Decoded
• The Rising Costs of Homeownership Are Increasing Burdens – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Are First‑Time Home Buyers Facing Desperate Times? – New York Fed
• What Real Estate Giants Are Saying About Technology | Q4 2024 Edition. We listened to their quarterly earnings calls so you don’t have to – Thesis Driven
• Elon Musk’s DOGE Reforms Aren’t Sending DC’s Housing Market Into a Death Spiral Yet, Despite Panicked Claims – Realtor.com
• Government Workers Who Have Lost Their Jobs Worry About Their Housing. The abrupt firings have left federal workers and contractors throughout the country in flux, with many distressed over how they will pay the mortgage or rent. – New York Times
• Fact Check: No evidence of Trump limiting public housing benefit to 2 years – Reuters
• Trump scraps Biden-era fair housing rule. Trump had weaponized an earlier version of the rule during the 2020 campaign, declaring that Democrats wanted to “abolish the suburbs.” – Politico

On China:

• China Home Prices Show Slight Improvement But Remain in Decline. Average home prices in the 70 cities surveyed dropped 0.07% from the prior month – Wall Street Journal
• China’s leaders look to have blinked in their property face-off. They did not want to bail out indebted firms. Now they are on the verge of doing so – The Economist
• How the state is propping up China’s housing market. As the government struggles to ease a real estate crisis, state-owned developers have been buying up land – FT

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Auction Market Preview – CoreLogic
• [Australia] The housing crisis is turning into an inequality crisis – The Australia Institute
• [Australia] Australia January consumer prices dip in the month as housing inflation slows – Reuters
• [Australia] Aussie home prices to rise only modestly this year as affordability bites – Reuters poll – Yahoo Finance
• [New Zealand] Signs aligning for house prices to rise in 2025 – economist – RNZ
• [New Zealand] New Zealand home prices forecast to rise 5.0% in 2025 as interest rates fall: Reuters poll – Reuters

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Canada’s housing plan needs a remodel: Senator Varone – Senate of Canada
• [Hong Kong] New World Development warns of US$871 million first half loss amid weak property market. The developer is suffering from valuation losses on its investment properties and high interest rate payments, analysts say – South China Morning Post
• [Hungary] Hungary’s Orban launches tax exemption for mothers, cap on housing loan rates – Reuters
• [Ireland] Planning rules for cabins and modular homes in back gardens set to be relaxed. Proposals being considered to allow modular or cabin-style homes be exempt from planning permission – The Irish Times
• [Italy] Move over Milan: property investors set their sights on spruced-up Rome – Reuters
• [Spain] La construcción se estanca en las zonas con mayor déficit de Vivienda. La obra nueva crece un 9% en el conjunto de España según los últimos datos disponibles, pero en Madrid cayó un 1,47%, mientras la de Barcelona apenas creció un 1,95% – El Pais
• [United Kingdom] How to solve the house price conundrum? Look no further than Gwynedd in Wales – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] English councils’ spending on emergency housing surges. Near-80% jump in expenditure to £732mn reflects increasingly acute homelessness crisis, says charity – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK Homebuyers Who Miss Tax Deadline to Pay Up to £11,250 Extra. Rightmove says 74,000 unlikely to complete before April 1. First-time buyers of £500,000 homes set to be hit hardest – Bloomberg 
• [United Kingdom] Gap between prices of UK flats and houses ‘widest in 30 years’. Cladding concerns and rising service charges hit demand for apartments – FT

From a book review by Barry Eichengreen:

“Collier contemplates the fate of left-behind places, such as South Yorkshire in the United Kingdom, devastated by the loss of its steel industry, and the Colombian city of Barranquilla, whose entrepot trade evaporated when its estuary silted up. In these cases and others, he blames centralized decision-making and blind faith in the market for failing to stem persistent decline. But he also highlights exceptions to the rule: left-behind places that rose from economic ruins. Examples include formerly depressed but now vibrant cities, such as Pittsburgh, and once stagnant but now relatively successful developing countries, such as Bangladesh and Rwanda. Keys to economic rejuvenation in these left-behind places are the devolution of decision-making powers to local and regional authorities, as well as having sufficient financial resources to implement the resulting bottom-up decisions. Collier reserves his harshest criticism for his own country, the United Kingdom, which has been singularly unsuccessful in lifting up neglected cities and regions.”

From a post by Astrid Haas:

“Africa’s cities are expanding at an unprecedented rate, bringing both challenges and opportunities. In this episode, feminist urban economist Astrid Haas explores three key pillars for inclusive and sustainable growth: governance, planning, and financing. In her view, effective governance requires adaptive institutions, transparent decision-making, and collaboration with civil society and the private sector to ensure cities meet the needs of all citizens. Proactive planning must address infrastructure, housing, and services while recognising the vital role of informal economies. Meanwhile, long-term, strategic financing and smarter municipal spending are essential for equitable development. With two-thirds of Africa’s population expected to live in cities by 2050, this conversation offers practical insights into harnessing urbanisation as a force for sustainable and inclusive growth.”

From a paper by Thao Le:

“This study examines the long-term impact of the Great Recession on employment in residential construction, and consequently housing supply. Using regional variation in house price declines during 2006–2009, I find that more severely impacted areas experienced a persistent reduction in construction employment but higher wage growth post-recession, consistent with a downward shift in construction labor supply. This contraction has a causal negative effect on housing production output. A 10% decrease in house prices during the crisis induced a 17%–20% reduction in 2019 construction employment, which in turn led to a 3.0%–5.7% decline in housing construction.”

From a paper by Arup Mitra, and Sabyasachi Tripathi:

“Although the focus on urbanization has shifted to developing countries, developed countries still face several challenges. In this regard, the present study proposes to investigate the capacity of cities in developed countries in terms of population size and reflects on the interaction between the city’s core and hinterland areas. In addition, the impact of cities on employment, gross domestic product, and productivity, as well as the short- and long-term relationship between them, are examined. We estimate Gini coefficients and apply panel stochastic frontier and panel cointegration approaches using data from 688 cities in 39 advanced countries to test our hypothesis. The estimated results show that the number of million-plus cities growing in developed nations varies widely, and a city’s hinterland and core vary in terms of population concentrations. The population in the core and hinterland areas have achieved saturation point. Therefore, the benefits of agglomeration economies have disappeared from these cities. It thus concurs with the S-shaped urbanization curve. The population concentration in the hinterland region is negatively impacted by territorial fragmentation and mean population exposure to particulate matter of 2.5 air pollution. There is a need to improve the density and management of environmental degradation through higher investment in making cities more productive and sustainable.”