The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Victor Shevchu:

“The aim of the article is to present results of the study on the link between business cycle and house prices in 16 regional capital cities in Poland. Using quarterly data for the period 20102024, the study finds that regional business cycle effects on cyclical fluctuations in regional house prices are predominantly positive. Following an increase in the National Bank of Poland (NBP) reference rate, house prices are on a decline in 11 out of 16 regional capital cities. The effects of housing quality and the exchange rate on house prices are ambiguous.”

On cross-country:

• Global house prices declined in real terms by 0.8% year on year (yoy) in Q2 2025, slightly less compared with the previous quarter (–1.0%). – BIS
• Where house prices are rising fastest globally – Global Property Guide
• European progressives must tackle housing crisis to beat far right, say researchers. Centre left can win broad support by addressing soaring house prices and rents, according to data analysis – The Guardian
• Commissioner Jørgensen welcomes recommendations by the Housing Advisory Board on how to tackle the housing crisis – European Commission
• New Housing in Europe publication out now – Eurostat
• Real estate investment: micro-apartments as a housing trend. Micro-apartments: the smart housing trend – compact and profitable. Ideal for urban lifestyles, they offer investors high rental income but also come with risks such as higher management costs and vacancies. – UBS

Working papers and conferences:

• The Mortgage Debt Channel of Monetary Policy when Mortgages are Liquid – University of Chicago
• “Giving Up”: The Impact of Decreasing Housing Affordability on Consumption, Work Effort, and Investment – SSRN
• Market segmentation and housing prices. Did relaxed credit standards drive the housing boom that led to the Great Recession? – American Economic Association
• The Global Value of Cities – NBER
• The Spatial Distribution of Income in Cities: New Global Evidence and Theory – NBER
• How spatiotemporal urban expansion shapes heat trends in coastal megacities: Developed vs. developing nations – Urban Climate

On China:

• Why China Can’t Sort Out Its Property Market Mess – Bloomberg

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] ‘I would just like to see more people housed’: inside NSW’s social housing changes – The Guardian
• [Australia] Australia Caps Risky Loans as Home Prices and Credit Surge – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Australia Building Activity Jumps in Race to Ease Housing Stress – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] NZ’s housing funk sows doubts on reliable investment strategy, drags on economy – Reuters

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Ontario’s housing affordability crisis extends far beyond Toronto – Fraser Institute
• [Denmark] Danish Home Price Spike Puts Central Bank on Alert for Stability – Bloomberg
• [Hong Kong] Momentum builds: ‘bigger’ Hong Kong property rebound forecast for 2026. Resurgent stock market helps steer secondary home prices to 14-month high as rent index maintains historical peak – South China Morning Post
• [Hong Kong] Three Arrested as Hong Kong Fire Death Toll Rises to at Least 65. Officials said firefighters extinguished fires in four towers of a high-rise complex, and blazes in three others were effectively under control – Wall Street Journal
• [Portugal] Housing crisis creates “new social challenges” in Portugal – European Commission – ENR
• [Switzerland] Swiss regulator warns mortgage risks are rising as banks stretch lending rules – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Mortgage brokers say house buying at risk from surveyor ‘down valuing’. London and the south-east said to be worst affected, with valuations often coming in at 10% below the agreed sale price – The Guardian
• [Vietnam] Surging Property Prices Draw Bidders for Derelict Vietnam Towers – Bloomberg

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• America’s huge mortgage market is slowly dying. Donald Trump’s remedies threaten to inflame a housing crisis – The Economist
• Mortgage lending in America is seizing up. How to revive it. Some rules introduced after the financial crisis have gone too far – The Economist
• The 10 U.S. Cities Seeing the Biggest Home Value Boom Since 2019 – Realtor.com
• Tensions between renters and homeowners challenge Mamdani housing plan. The incoming New York City mayor’s plan relies on higher density in places where some neighbors oppose it. He is scheduled to meet Friday with the president. – Washington Post
• Zillow just revised its home price forecast for 400-plus housing markets. Zillow upgraded its national home price outlook slightly—predicting that over the next 12 months U.S. home prices are likely to rise 1.5%. – Fast Company
• Where Renters and Owners Face the Highest Cost Burdens – NAHB
• Luxury Homes Are Selling Faster as Prices Tick Down—and One Tropical Enclave Has Seen the Steepest Drop – Realtor.com
• Rents Drop in 5 Key Metros—What You Need to Know – Realtor.com
• NAR Housing Market Forecast for 2026—5 Key Takeaways – Realtor.com
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.3% year-over-year in September. FHFA House Prices up 1.7% YoY in September – Calculated Risk
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in October. Punta Gorda House Prices Down Over 20% from Recent Peak, Austin Down over 17% – Calculated Risk
• Household Debt Balances Grow Steadily; Mortgage Originations Tick Up in Third Quarter – New York Fed
• Understanding the Federal Home Loan Bank System: What It Is and Why It Matters – New York Fed 

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Trump needs to tackle housing supply, not mortgage rates. A focus on cutting interest costs only fuels home price inflation, hitting working families – FT
• Existing Home Sales Rise in October – NAHB
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October. Median House Prices Increased 2.1% Year-over-Year – Calculated Risk
• When Home Sellers Set Prices Too High, They’re Paying for It. More than half of homes sold in 2025 through October had at least one price cut – Wall Street Journal
• Building Material Prices Continued to Rise in September – NAHB
• US Home-Purchase Applications Surge to Highest Since 2023 – Bloomberg
• Pending Homes Sales Climb 1.9% as This Region Outperforms the Rest of the Country – Realtor.com
• The ‘New’ Solution for the N.Y.C. Housing Crisis: Single-Room Apartments. There is a push to revive single-room occupancy housing, where kitchens and bathrooms are shared among apartments as small as 100 square feet each. – New York Times
• Delistings Jump 28% as Sellers Pull Homes Off Market Rather Than Settle For Low Prices – Redfin
• States look for clogs in the housing pipeline. As they seek to lower their residents’ housing costs, states are tweaking land use laws and other regulatory frameworks – Minneapolis Fed

On other developments:    

• The Housing Affordability Crisis Is Accelerating Fastest in Rural America – Redfin
• Job and Housing Stresses Are Caught in a Vicious Loop – Bloomberg
• What incentives are states offering to make houses less vulnerable to extreme weather damage? – Brookings
• Are millennials frozen out of the housing market? The reality may be more interesting. An eye-catching report said the average first-time homebuyer is now 40, but the story is more complex. – Washington Post
• America’s Housing Crisis, in One Chart – New York Times
• Every Housing Down Cycle is “unhappy in its own way” – Calculated Risk
• Mike Bird on the Land Trap and How the History of Housing Impacts the Global Economy – Mercatus Center
• Ezra Klein Needs to Look More Closely at His Housing Chart – CEPR
• Is the housing market at risk as more homeowners slip underwater? The share of mortgages that are underwater inches up to 1.6%—still far below the 23% seen in 2009. – Fast Company
• Pulte’s Move to Fix Credit Scores Is Bad News for Homebuyers. Bill Pulte declared by tweet that homebuying costs would be lower if FICO had competition—a move that instead risks pushing credit-score prices higher. – Bloomberg
• What it Means for Housing if the AI Bubble Bursts—5 Key Takeaways – Realtor.com
• Property Taxes by State – 2024 – NAHB
• L.A. Mayor Karen Bass Says You Can Defeat NIMBYism by Building Less – Reason 
• New York Leads Effort to Stop Plan That Could Cut Housing for 170,000. The Trump administration is pushing a new approach to America’s homeless crisis, favoring shelters and rehabilitation centers over long-term housing for people who use drugs and alcohol. – New York Times

On cross-country:

• Is a Global Housing Bubble About to Burst? It’s unlikely, according to a report by the Swiss bank UBS, but some markets are more vulnerable than others. – New York Times
• New website section puts housing in focus – Eurostat
• Renters bear brunt of housing cost struggles across Europe. Our latest consumer survey highlights rent and mortgage payers’ difficulties in making their monthly payments and reveals how they view overall housing affordability and first-time buyers’ problems – ING
• The solution to Europe’s housing affordability crisis must include building decarbonization. The EU can help tackle Europe’s housing crisis by reducing energy costs, decarbonising buildings and adhering to climate goals – Bruegel 
• Global House Price Index: 1, 5 & 10 Year Changes by Country – Global Property Guide

Working papers and conferences:

• The Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Residential Investment and House Prices in Small Euro Area Economies – The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics
• Decay, Abandonment, and . . . Profits? An Unlikely Combination in Real Estate Markets – Philadelphia Fed
• Do Lower Mortgage Rates Benefit First-Time Homebuyers? – SSRN
• Sea Level Rise and Effects on House Prices – Richmond Fed

On China:

• How Chinese China investment falls by most since the pandemic. Weak housing prices and slowing industrial output point to flagging economic momentum – FT
• China’s October new home prices fall at fastest pace in a year – Reuters
• Metals Climb as China Weighs New Stimulus for Property Sector – Bloomberg
• Beijing Eyes New Property Stimulus as Housing Slump Deepens – Bloomberg

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] The 5% first home buyers scheme is a miserable policy failure – and the latest chapter in Australia’s housing disgrace. The government is juicing demand to make houses more expensive for Australians while providing good public housing for … Americans – The Guardian

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Canadian Housing Market Resumes Gains as Lower Rates Spur Demand – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Canadian home sales regain positive momentum in October – Reuters
• [Canada] Canadian Housing Market Resumes Gains as Lower Rates Spur Demand – Bloomberg 
• [Canada] Momentum Continues as Canadian Home Sales Rise in October – The Globe and Mail
• [Canada] In-House Podcast: Fall Residential Mortgage Industry Report Insights – CMHC
• [France] Paris Apartment Prices Jump Most in Almost Five Years – Bloomberg
• [Italy] Italy’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide 
• [Korea] Seoul Apartment Prices Regain Momentum Ahead of BOK Meeting – Bloomberg
• [Netherlands] The Netherlands’ Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Spain] Escasez de vivienda: cuando la oferta no acompaña a la demanda – BBVA
• [Spain] No faltan compradores, faltan casas: el gran bloqueo del mercado inmobiliario – BBVA
• [Spain] Spain’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [United Arab Emirates] Dubai Residential Real Estate October 2025 Market Overview – REIDIN
• [United Kingdom] Average U.K. House Asking Prices Fall in November as Pre-Budget Blues Continue. Budget jitters and a decade-high number of homes for sale are weighing on the market – Wall Street Journal
• [United Kingdom] Asking prices fall as UK housing market hit by budget speculation, Rightmove says. November drop of 1.8% is biggest for this time of year since 2012, with chancellor’s plans looming – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Multimillion-Pound Home Sales Drop Sharply Before UK Budget – Bloomberg

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• What happens when housing supply is driven by markets not Main Street. Home prices in America won’t come down without systemic reform – FT
• Donald Trump’s 50-year mortgages are poor deal for homebuyers. Without supply increasing, even allowing Americans to pay for their homes over a century would not make housing affordable – FT
• How can we make the housing crisis even worse? Donald Trump has a plan. A proposal touting 50-year mortgages could double interest payments and worsen inequality – The Guardian
• 50-Year Mortgages: What Bill Pulte Does When He Isn’t Reviewing Mortgages of Trump’s Enemies – CEPR
• Trump Can Make Starter Homes Great Again. Ed Pinto and Tobias Peter propose a better way to satisfy housing needs than the 50-year mortgage. – Wall Street Journal
• MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q3 2025 – Calculated Risk
• Mapping Home Price Changes – New York Fed
• Average US long-term mortgage rate rises again, inching up to 6.24% – AP
• Price Control Apologia – John Cochrane
• What Home Features Add the Most Value? – NAHB
• Why Portable Mortgages Won’t Work in the U.S.—and How They Could Make Housing Even Less Affordable – Realtor.com
• The Politics of Price Controls – Cato
• Location, Location, Location: How Place and Neighborhood Shape Home Values – NAHB
• U.S. Mortgage Originations Dip 2 Percent in Q3 2025 – ATTOM

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• California Housing Supply and Land Use Legislative Round-Up – Terner Center for Housing Innovation
• Build, Baby, Build: A Plan To Lower Housing Costs for All. CAP’s plan would focus federal efforts on building homes and lower housing costs. – Center for American Progress
• How to Shrink Housing Supply in Los Angeles. The city tightens its rent control law. Good luck finding an apartment. – Wall Street Journal
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October – Calculated Risk
• August Private Residential Construction Spending Edges Higer – NAHB
• Credit Conditions for Builders Continue to Be Tight – NAHB
• Builder Sentiment Relatively Flat in November as Market Headwinds Persist – NAHB
• California October Home Sales “Highest Level Since February”; 4th Look at Local Markets. California Median Price per Square Foot Down 2.5% Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• The U.S. Housing Market Is Stuck, With Sales and Listings Barely Budging – Redfin
• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October. What is the “Market’s” Estimate of R*? – Calculated Risk
• The Housing Strategy That Has California NIMBYs in a Corner. For years, the state has been nudging its cities to build housing to address a severe shortage. Maybe what they needed was a shove. – New York Times

On other developments:    

• Housing is at the heart of America’s economic problems. We’re propping up prices to boost old people’s wealth. But that’s shutting young people out of the capitalist system. – Noahpinion
• Trump administration issues policy change making deep cuts to homeless housing program. More than half of the 2026 funding for the program will be shifted from permanent housing to transitional housing with work and service requirements. – Politico
• The Hidden Costs of Homeownership Top $16,000 a Year. A new Zillow and Thumbtack analysis reveals how rising maintenance, insurance and tax costs are reshaping affordability nationwide. – Zillow
• From U-turns to Making America Affordable Again. Both Trump and Britain’s Labour government need a word with the ghost of Margaret Thatcher.  – Bloomberg
• Democrats eye housing affordability as next weapon against Trump. The Center for American Progress wants candidates to boost new home construction, send checks to renters and punish localities that don’t reform zoning codes. – Washington Post
• Economists Hate This Idea. It Could Be a Way Out of the Affordability Crisis. – New York Times  
• Housing Affordability: CAPs New “Build, Baby, Build” Proposal. We propose a bold plan to knock us off of the bad equilibrium in which we’ve been stuck for far too long. – Jared Berstein
• America’s Home Insurance Affordability Crunch: See What’s Happening Near You. – New York Times
• The Federal Government Shutdown Highlighted America’s Affordability Crisis – Time
• New Mexico is Struggling in Affordability and Homebuilding: Can Gov. Lujan Grisham Build Enough Homes? – Realtor.com
• North Dakota Is Holding Steady in Affordability and Homebuilding: Can Gov. Armstrong Keep It Growing? – Realtor.com
• It’s the Strongest Buyer’s Market in Records Dating Back Over a Decade – Redfin
• New York Is Failing in Affordability and Homebuilding: Can Gov. Hochul Fix the Crisis? – Realtor.com
• Pennsylvania Is Struggling in Affordability and Homebuilding: Can Gov. Shapiro Bridge the Gap? – Realtor.com
•  Montana is Failing in Affordability and Homebuilding: Can Governor Gianforte Close the Gap? – Realtor.com
• A Major Metro Is the Most Affordable City in America—and the Median Home Price Is Below $250K – Realtor.com
• Using Off-Site Construction to Close the Affordable Housing Gap – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Grampa Simpson on Whining Whiners about House Affordability – Econbrowser
• How Building Affordable Housing Became Hottest Game in L.A. City streamlines approval process for developers to ease housing shortages – Wall Street Journal
• We Need a Marshall Plan to Tackle America’s Housing Crisis – AEI
• Illegal Immigrants Didn’t Break the Housing Market; Bad Policy Did – Marginal Revolution
• Home Depot earnings show what’s really going on in the housing market. Even as the data points in different directions, it nevertheless suggests the sector is undergoing a correction rather than a boom-bust cycle – Quartz
• Rejoinder to Comments on House Price Affordability – Econbrowser