The Unassuming Economist

On cross-country:

• Extreme renting: how rising rates turned the screws on tenants across Europe. Heated market in housing hotspots is compounded by increasing mortgage costs deterring buyers – FT
• Extreme renting: Santorini’s teachers forced to rough it in Airbnb haven. Tourists flocking to Greek islands and Italian cities are pricing out public sector workers and students – FT

Conference/Working Papers

• 12th Annual Housing Conference – AEI
• Why Zoning is Too Restrictive – SSRN
• The Housing Supply Channel of Monetary Policy – SSRN
• The Impacts of Local Housing Markets on U.S. Presidential Elections: Via the Collateral Channel – SSRN
• Short-term rentals and housing market: Evidence from portuguese metropolitan areas – University of Surrey
• Air Pollution and Rent Prices: Evidence from Wildfire Smoke – SSRN
• Socio-Spatial Insights into Evictions Governance and Tenant Movements During the Covid-19 Pandemic – SSRN 

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Have Rising Mortgage Rates Frozen the Housing Market? Not as Much as You’d Think – Apricitas Economics
• How High a Rate Can Housing Take? Home builders are thriving despite high mortgage rates, but homeowners might have less to celebrate if they persist – Wall Street Journal
• Mortgage Rates Hit 7.09%, Highest in More Than 20 Years. Interest rates hit housing hard: Would-be buyers are locked out, and would-be sellers are staying put – Wall Street Journal
• Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – August 2023 – Freddie Mac
• Banks Don’t Love Rich Mortgage Borrowers as Much as They Used To. The Fed’s interest-rate hikes and recent bank failures mean lenders aren’t competing so fiercely for jumbo loans – Wall Street Journal

On the US—other developments:    

• Goodbye Bathtub and Living Room. America’s Homes Are Shrinking. Faced with high mortgage rates, cost-constrained Americans are embracing smaller homes – Wall Street Journal
• Airbnb Hosts and Guests Scramble as New York Begins Crackdown. New short-term rental regulations could eliminate huge blocks of listings for visitors looking for options beyond hotels – Wall Street Journal 
• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July. 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in July; California Sales Down 9% YoY – Calculated Risk
• Too Many Vacant Lots, Not Enough Housing: The U.S. Real-Estate Puzzle. In Chicago, Pittsburgh and Detroit neighborhoods where houses are surrounded by empty lots, authorities are starting to bulldoze obstacles to development – Wall Street Journal
• Single-Family Home Size Moves Lower to More than a Decade Low – NAHB
• 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in July. A few more local markets prior to the NAR release – Calculated Risk
• New High Share for Multifamily Built-for-Rent – NAHB
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.07 million SAAR in July. Median Prices Increased 1.9% YoY in July – Calculated Risk
• Buyers: Results from the Zillow Consumer Housing Trends Report 2023 – Zillow

On China:

• Why It’s So Hard for China to Fix Its Real Estate Crisis. Beijing has often addressed economic troubles by boosting spending on infrastructure and real estate, but now heavy debt loads make that a hard playbook to follow – New York Times
• China should stick to ‘houses are for living, not for speculation’ – state media – Reuters 
• What to Know About China’s Real Estate Crisis. China’s economy was long dependent on a booming real estate sector, which has recently fallen on harder times. – New York Times
• China’s property crisis leaves Country Garden with unpaid workers, silent sites – Reuters
• Why It’s So Hard for China to Fix Its Real Estate Crisis. Beijing has often addressed economic troubles by boosting spending on infrastructure and real estate, but now heavy debt loads make that a hard playbook to follow. – Wall Street Journal
• China Is on Edge as Fallout From Its Real Estate Crisis Spreads. Beijing wanted to cool its housing market, but created a bigger problem, as the fallout from debt-laden developers and sinking sales spreads to the broader economy. – New York Times
• How bad could China’s property crisis get? Country Garden is on the edge of default. Here is a worst-case scenario – The Economist
• For Single Women in China, Owning a Home Is a New Form of Resistance. The housing market in China is in turmoil. But more and more women, facing a less equal society, are buying their own homes in search of security. – New York Times
• Chinese developer Evergrande files for US bankruptcy protection. Property group’s 2021 bond default triggered sector-wide liquidity crisis in China – FT 
• Property shakeout Beijing’s tool to fight fiefdoms. There’s no financial crisis in China, just a political standoff over local government finances – Asia Times
• China’s property woes sparking contagion fears. Beleaguered property developers are finding it more and more difficult to pay back bank loans and meet debt obligations – Asia Times
• China’s property sector, not deflation risk, is its top economic worry. China’s consumer price index falling for the first time since 2021 has raised fears of deflation, but a closer look at the data paints a different picture. Weak home sales and large developers’ ailing finances are weighing on the property sector as policymakers try to revive spending but keep housing affordable – South China Morning Post
• China surprisingly holds mortgage rate, underwhelming move raises easing outlook concerns. China’s one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was cut from 3.55 per cent to 3.45 per cent, but the five-year LPR remained unchanged at 4.2 per cent. Analysts have warned that a real impact on housing demand and the economy would require more than just rate cuts – South China Morning Post

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Housing plans unlikely to close door on rent rises – Financial Review
• [Canada] Canada considering foreign student visa cap to address housing shortage – Reuters
• [Germany] German home building permits tumble amid calls for stimulus – Reuters
• [Singapore] Singapore to Tackle Public Housing Worries After Surge in Prices. Analysts expect tweaks to income ceiling, more subsidies. PM Lee signaled policy adjustments are on the way in speech – Bloomberg
• [South Korea] IMF Sees Debt Risks for Korean Non-Bank Lenders Tied to Property. ‘Pockets of vulnerability’ seen, notably among non-bank firms. Property sector is systemically important: IMF’s Korea chief – Bloomberg
• [Sweden] Swedish Housing Market Gets Good News as Prices May Have Bottomed. Home prices are down 12% from peak and may have reached trough. Most forecasters have penciled in 20% drop in values – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Young Buyers Get Boost from Improving UK Housing Affordability. Surge in wages causes fall in house price to earnings ratio. However, the burden of mortgages for UK households rises – Bloomberg

On cross-country:

• Housing costs making UK households much poorer than US peers, study finds. Report says wealth gap would be wider if not for over-priced or ineffective services such as healthcare in US – The Guardian
• Global Residential Update – Knight Frank

Conference/Working Papers

• Borrowing constraints, own labour and homeownership – IDEAS
• Mortgage Spreads and the Yield Curve – Richmond Fed
• Monetary policy transmission with adjustable and fixed rate mortgages: The role of credit supply – VoxEU 

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Location, location, location: Mortgage rate impact varies by metro – Dallas Fed
• The “New Normal” Mortgage Rate Range – Calculated Risk
• Gen Z’s Housing Anguish. To afford rent, young American adults are making tough choices. – New York Times
• Builder Confidence Falls on Rising Mortgage Rates – NAHB
• US Housing Affordability Hits Worst Point in Nearly Four Decades. A surge in borrowing costs is making home purchases more expensive with little relief in sight. – Bloomberg
• US housing starts surge in boost to economy – Reuters

On the US—other developments:    

• The Long-Term Housing and Population Shift – Calculated Risk
• 2023 Q2 Cross-Market Demand Report: A Growing Number of Home Shoppers Are Looking for Homes in Other Markets – Realtor.com
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in July. Local Market Data Suggests July Sales Rate Close to June Sales Rate – Calculated Risk
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August – Calculated Risk
• July Housing Starts: Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction. Housing Starts Increased to 1.452 million Annual Rate in July – Calculated Risk
• US homebuilders defy interest rate rise as Buffett buys in. New construction makes up 30% of market with current homeowners clinging to cheaper mortgages – FT
• Warren Buffett just made a big bet on the U.S. housing market – Fortune
• CoreLogic: US Home Investor Share Remained High in Early Summer 2023 – Calculated Risk
• US housing market in gridlock, with risks emerging – ING
• Why Wall Street is Gung-ho on the Housing Market. Despite mortgage rates hitting multidecade highs and jitters in the bond market, demand for new homes is strong and prices are rising. – New York Times  

On China:

• China’s deepening property crisis threatens trouble. Country Garden is on the edge of default. What would a worst-case scenario look like? – The Economist
• China Home Prices Drop at Faster Pace as Downturn Worsens. Second month of declines adds to evidence of weaker market. Government is trying to rekindle demand in housing sector – Bloomberg
• China’s Housing Slump Is Much Worse Than Official Data Shows. Property values show variance between agents, official data. Uncertainty over data could have implications for policy – Bloomberg
• China’s housing market is . . . not good. How long until it bans property data releases as well? – FT
• China’s Economic Woes Deepen With Housing Market Slump – Bloomberg
• Contagion fears spread as China property sector cash crunch intensifies – Reuters
• China’s Deepening Housing Problems Spook Investors. Stocks in Hong Kong and mainland China drop after developer Country Garden flags more debt problems – Wall Street Journal  
• The moment of reckoning looms large for China’s property market as crisis deepens. There are signs China’s real estate party is coming to an end, and the moment of reckoning is looming large for property developers, homeowners and the government. China’s move to allow home ownership in the late 1990s unleashed a spectacular property market boom, leading to phenomenal wealth creation – South China Morning Post

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Australian PM Offers Cash to States to Help Ease Housing Crisis. Rents recorded biggest increase in 14 years in second quarter. Government’s signature housing laws remain stuck in the Senate – Bloomberg
• [Australia] National cabinet agrees to build 1.2m new homes in bid to tackle housing crisis. Albanese announces ‘new home bonus’ of up to $3bn for states and territories but continues to reject Greens calls for rent freeze – The Guardian
• [Australia] Back yard blitz: are Australia’s heritage laws thwarting housing density? Urban density advocates say heritage laws are being weaponised to constrain development at a time of housing crisis, but experts say the two can live side by side – The Guardian
• [Australia] The regional housing markets where prices are set to surge – Financial Review
• [Korea] South Korea house prices snap 13 months of decline – Reuters
• [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices edge higher, buyers returning to market – Reinz – New Straits Times 
• [Sweden] Swedes Signal Optimism on Home Prices for Third Straight Month – Bloomberg
• [Sweden] Sweden’s Depressed Housing Starts Exacerbate Shortage of Homes. Dwelling component of Byggfakta indicator is at nine-year low. Decline in home construction follows housing market slump – Bloomberg
• [United Arab Emirates] Dubai’s Housing Boom Starts to Spread to the City’s Outskirts. Apartment prices rise at record pace amid strong demand. Demand rises in secondary districts where values had lagged – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] The UK Housing Market Hangs in the Balance – Bloomberg

On cross-country:

• Global Home Prices Reveal Interest-Rate Pain Ripe for FX Traders. Weak housing markets may spur premature end to hiking cycles. Strategists see pain for Swedish, New Zealand currencies ahead – Bloomberg
• Recovery? Crisis? Where you stand on the state of housing markets depends on where you sit. Housing prices are rising in several countries, even those with high levels of household debt and large proportions of floating rate mortgages. However, the persistence of acute vulnerabilities means global property markets will continue to emit mixed signals and perception depends on one’s stake – South China Morning Post

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• How High Mortgage Rates Fuel Inflation. It’s costlier to move, so fewer houses are on the market. Less supply means higher prices and rents. – Wall Street Journal
• The impact of 7% Mortgage Rates – Calculated Risk
• Home-equity loans make a comeback. Mortgage tool led to risks before the financial crisis but it is now increasing in demand again – FT
• Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Increased Month-to-month to New Record High in June. “Pretty safe bet” that now is the “worst affordable market” – Calculated Risk
• Where Is Shelter Inflation Headed? – San Francisco Fed
• Rising Mortgage Rates and Home Prices Put a Damper on Housing Affordability – NAHB

On the US—other developments:    

• Our Carrie Bradshaw index calculates where Americans can afford to live alone. In many cities even the most basic apartments are unaffordable – The Economist
• Meet America’s disguised property investors. They do not live in the homes they have bet on. Can they live with the bets they have made? – The Economist
• Converting Brown Offices to Green Apartments – NBER
• July 2023 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• Real Estate Helped Drive Wealth Gains during the Pandemic – St. Louis Fed
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in July. Early Reporting Markets Suggest Sales Down Less YoY in July than in June NSA – Calculated Risk
• Atlanta Fed: Home Ownership Affordability Monitor – Calculated Risk
• The Average American Homeowner Has Nearly $200,000 in Home Equity, Thanks to Rising House Prices – Realtor.com
• The Anti-California, How Montana performed a housing miracle – The Atlantic
• First American City to Tame Inflation Owes Its Success to Affordable Housing. The Minneapolis area has seen an increase in rental units, thanks to a regional effort that included new zoning rules. – Bloomberg  

On China:

• Another Big Chinese Property Domino Is Wobbling. Bonds of Country Garden, China’s largest developer by contracted sales, have been in free fall – The Guardian
• How social housing could get China’s economy and population growing again. Policymakers have enacted easing measures for the property sector, but the impact is likely to be limited and fail to address the underlying causes. Looking to the Singapore model of social housing could be the best way to get China back on track – South China Morning Post

On other countries:  

• [Denmark] House Prices in Denmark Rise as Wages Go Up And Interest Rates Stabilize. House prices are up 4% since February following big slump. Denmark set to avoid same decline seen in neighboring Sweden – Bloomberg
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong: cheaper homes show city is Central no more. Property market slump in mainland China is partly to blame and locals are in no position to pick up the slack – FT
• [United Kingdom] Housebuilders: rate rises hit profits like a ton of bricks. Yet Taylor Wimpey’s share price is up, despite a fall in pre-tax profits – FT
• [United Kingdom] Lenders cut mortgage rates despite latest BoE rate rise. Pain of higher interest rates is having an uneven effect on the housing market that looks set to persist – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall for fourth consecutive month, Halifax figures show. Property market displays resilience in face of sharp rise in interest rates with modest declines – FT
• [United Kingdom] Four large UK lenders announce mortgage rate cuts. Reductions by Nationwide, HSBC, TSB and Halifax come as competition in home loan market intensifies – FT

Conference

• CALL FOR PAPERS — 2024 Conference on Low-Income Housing Supply and Housing Affordability – AREUEA

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 4.4% Below Peak. Price-to-rent index is 7.9% below recent peak – Calculated Risk
• Understanding Rationality and Disagreement in House Price Expectations – NBER
• Rate-Locked Homeowners Nearly Twice as Likely to Not Consider Selling. A recent Zillow survey found that homeowners who report buying their home at lower mortgage rates are less likely to sell their home and move. – Zillow
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in June to New High; Up 1.7% Year-over-year. Boise leads Cities with 11.7% decline from Peak, Seasonally Adjusted – Calculated Risk
• Asking Rents Negative Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Change for 2024? – Calculated Risk
• Unaffordable Prices & Bidding Wars Hold Buyers Back – NAHB

On the US—other developments:    

• How to nudge Americans to reduce their housing exposure to climate risks – Brookings
• Home Insurers Are Charging More and Insuring Less. Industry tries to rebound from years of losses owing to storms, fires and inflation – Wall Street Journal
• Lots of US Homeowners Want to Move. They Just Have Nowhere to Go. Locked into cheaper borrowing costs and unable to find a new place that fits their budgets, countless people are opting to remain in their current homes, adding to an acute shortage of available properties. – Bloomberg
• US Homeowner Equity Climbs to a Record High – Bloomberg 
• Biden-⁠Harris Administration Announces Actions to Lower Housing Costs and Boost Supply – White House
• Housing Affordability Expectations Slide Back, Again – NAHB 
• Some Buyers Remain Engaged, Despite Lower Affordability – NAHB
• Majority of Americans prefer a community with big houses, even if local amenities are farther away – Pew Research Center

On China:

• Top China Housing Official Urges Fresh Property Aid Efforts. China’s housing minister met with developers amid downturn. Beijing has pressed lenders to help builders complete projects – Bloomberg
• China has to stabilize its housing market and address risks to its economy if it wants to avoid ‘Japanification’, JPMorgan says – Business Insider
• China’s Housing Ministry Urges More Property Rescue Efforts – Wall Street Journal
• Beijing, Shenzhen and Guangzhou officials vow support for China’s struggling property market, stocks surge. Authorities in Beijing and Shenzhen to ‘satisfy the rigid demand and improvement demand for housing’ and help ‘stabilised and healthy development’ of housing market. Local newspaper reports say Guangzhou Municipal Commission of Housing will soon roll out loosening measures – South China Morning Post
• China’s property problems appear poised to improve, but can ‘much more risky’ real estate still drive economic growth? Beijing vows restrictive property policies will be further relaxed, but investors do not seem to have the same speculative mentality they used to. Some analysts say the property sector cannot be the ‘old growth driver’ it once was, while others say it will nonetheless remain a critical pillar of the economy – South China Morning Post

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Australian house prices look set to rise despite the rate hikes. This isn’t great given how expensive they already are. Existing mortgage holders are likely to be spared more interest rate rises after the latest RBA meeting, but first home buyers will find the task ever more difficult – The Guardian
• [Canada] Soaring Housing Costs Threaten Political Consequences for Trudeau. Canada’s benchmark house price has doubled since 2013. Immigrants arriving outpace housing units started by 4.5 times – Bloomberg
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong property prices have room to fall before mortgage peak heralds return of buy-to-let investors. Commercial banks raised mortgage rates for the second time this year as the city’s cost of money rose to the highest level since December 2007. More than half of property sales are to investors who use debt to part finance their purchases and costly debt keeps them away – South China Morning Post
• [Singapore] How to Singapore Home Prices Fell for the First Time in Three Years. Final government figures confirm first drop since early 2020. Tax hikes, high interest rates contributed to slowdown – Bloomberg
• [Sweden] How the ghost of the 1990s property crash returned to haunt Sweden – Reuters
• [Sweden] Sweden House Prices Eke Out Gain, Defying Higher Borrowing Costs – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] How UK house prices left the middle class behind. New data confirms that unaffordability is entrenched, with almost all housing now the preserve of the rich – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Falling mortgage rates usher borrowers towards shorter-term deals. Many lenders are trimming rates — though not all – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK mortgage approvals rise unexpectedly. Increase comes despite BoE raising interest rates sharply to 5% – FT  
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall at fastest rate since 2009 after interest rate rises. Nationwide says cost of a typical home is £260,828 after 3.8% year-on-year drop in July – The Guardian