Housing View – August 4, 2023


  • CALL FOR PAPERS — 2024 Conference on Low-Income Housing Supply and Housing Affordability – AREUEA

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Inflation Adjusted House Prices 4.4% Below Peak. Price-to-rent index is 7.9% below recent peak – Calculated Risk
  • Understanding Rationality and Disagreement in House Price Expectations – NBER
  • Rate-Locked Homeowners Nearly Twice as Likely to Not Consider Selling. A recent Zillow survey found that homeowners who report buying their home at lower mortgage rates are less likely to sell their home and move. – Zillow
  • Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in June to New High; Up 1.7% Year-over-year. Boise leads Cities with 11.7% decline from Peak, Seasonally Adjusted – Calculated Risk
  • Asking Rents Negative Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
  • How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Change for 2024? – Calculated Risk
  • Unaffordable Prices & Bidding Wars Hold Buyers Back – NAHB

On the US—other developments:    

  • How to nudge Americans to reduce their housing exposure to climate risks – Brookings
  • Home Insurers Are Charging More and Insuring Less. Industry tries to rebound from years of losses owing to storms, fires and inflation – Wall Street Journal
  • Lots of US Homeowners Want to Move. They Just Have Nowhere to Go. Locked into cheaper borrowing costs and unable to find a new place that fits their budgets, countless people are opting to remain in their current homes, adding to an acute shortage of available properties. – Bloomberg
  • US Homeowner Equity Climbs to a Record High – Bloomberg 
  • Biden-⁠Harris Administration Announces Actions to Lower Housing Costs and Boost Supply – White House
  • Housing Affordability Expectations Slide Back, Again – NAHB 
  • Some Buyers Remain Engaged, Despite Lower Affordability – NAHB
  • Majority of Americans prefer a community with big houses, even if local amenities are farther away – Pew Research Center

On China:

  • Top China Housing Official Urges Fresh Property Aid Efforts. China’s housing minister met with developers amid downturn. Beijing has pressed lenders to help builders complete projects – Bloomberg
  • China has to stabilize its housing market and address risks to its economy if it wants to avoid ‘Japanification’, JPMorgan says – Business Insider
  • China’s Housing Ministry Urges More Property Rescue Efforts – Wall Street Journal
  • Beijing, Shenzhen and Guangzhou officials vow support for China’s struggling property market, stocks surge. Authorities in Beijing and Shenzhen to ‘satisfy the rigid demand and improvement demand for housing’ and help ‘stabilised and healthy development’ of housing market. Local newspaper reports say Guangzhou Municipal Commission of Housing will soon roll out loosening measures – South China Morning Post
  • China’s property problems appear poised to improve, but can ‘much more risky’ real estate still drive economic growth? Beijing vows restrictive property policies will be further relaxed, but investors do not seem to have the same speculative mentality they used to. Some analysts say the property sector cannot be the ‘old growth driver’ it once was, while others say it will nonetheless remain a critical pillar of the economy – South China Morning Post

On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Australian house prices look set to rise despite the rate hikes. This isn’t great given how expensive they already are. Existing mortgage holders are likely to be spared more interest rate rises after the latest RBA meeting, but first home buyers will find the task ever more difficult – The Guardian
  • [Canada] Soaring Housing Costs Threaten Political Consequences for Trudeau. Canada’s benchmark house price has doubled since 2013. Immigrants arriving outpace housing units started by 4.5 times – Bloomberg
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong property prices have room to fall before mortgage peak heralds return of buy-to-let investors. Commercial banks raised mortgage rates for the second time this year as the city’s cost of money rose to the highest level since December 2007. More than half of property sales are to investors who use debt to part finance their purchases and costly debt keeps them away – South China Morning Post
  • [Singapore] How to Singapore Home Prices Fell for the First Time in Three Years. Final government figures confirm first drop since early 2020. Tax hikes, high interest rates contributed to slowdown – Bloomberg
  • [Sweden] How the ghost of the 1990s property crash returned to haunt Sweden – Reuters
  • [Sweden] Sweden House Prices Eke Out Gain, Defying Higher Borrowing Costs – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] How UK house prices left the middle class behind. New data confirms that unaffordability is entrenched, with almost all housing now the preserve of the rich – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] Falling mortgage rates usher borrowers towards shorter-term deals. Many lenders are trimming rates — though not all – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK mortgage approvals rise unexpectedly. Increase comes despite BoE raising interest rates sharply to 5% – FT  
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall at fastest rate since 2009 after interest rate rises. Nationwide says cost of a typical home is £260,828 after 3.8% year-on-year drop in July – The Guardian

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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