Housing View – August 25, 2023

On cross-country:

  • Extreme renting: how rising rates turned the screws on tenants across Europe. Heated market in housing hotspots is compounded by increasing mortgage costs deterring buyers – FT
  • Extreme renting: Santorini’s teachers forced to rough it in Airbnb haven. Tourists flocking to Greek islands and Italian cities are pricing out public sector workers and students – FT

Conference/Working Papers

  • 12th Annual Housing Conference – AEI
  • Why Zoning is Too Restrictive – SSRN
  • The Housing Supply Channel of Monetary Policy – SSRN
  • The Impacts of Local Housing Markets on U.S. Presidential Elections: Via the Collateral Channel – SSRN
  • Short-term rentals and housing market: Evidence from portuguese metropolitan areas – University of Surrey
  • Air Pollution and Rent Prices: Evidence from Wildfire Smoke – SSRN
  • Socio-Spatial Insights into Evictions Governance and Tenant Movements During the Covid-19 Pandemic – SSRN 

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:

  • Have Rising Mortgage Rates Frozen the Housing Market? Not as Much as You’d Think – Apricitas Economics
  • How High a Rate Can Housing Take? Home builders are thriving despite high mortgage rates, but homeowners might have less to celebrate if they persist – Wall Street Journal
  • Mortgage Rates Hit 7.09%, Highest in More Than 20 Years. Interest rates hit housing hard: Would-be buyers are locked out, and would-be sellers are staying put – Wall Street Journal
  • Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – August 2023 – Freddie Mac
  • Banks Don’t Love Rich Mortgage Borrowers as Much as They Used To. The Fed’s interest-rate hikes and recent bank failures mean lenders aren’t competing so fiercely for jumbo loans – Wall Street Journal

On the US—other developments:

  • Goodbye Bathtub and Living Room. America’s Homes Are Shrinking. Faced with high mortgage rates, cost-constrained Americans are embracing smaller homes – Wall Street Journal
  • Airbnb Hosts and Guests Scramble as New York Begins Crackdown. New short-term rental regulations could eliminate huge blocks of listings for visitors looking for options beyond hotels – Wall Street Journal 
  • Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July. 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in July; California Sales Down 9% YoY Calculated Risk
  • Too Many Vacant Lots, Not Enough Housing: The U.S. Real-Estate Puzzle. In Chicago, Pittsburgh and Detroit neighborhoods where houses are surrounded by empty lots, authorities are starting to bulldoze obstacles to development – Wall Street Journal
  • Single-Family Home Size Moves Lower to More than a Decade Low – NAHB
  • 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in July. A few more local markets prior to the NAR release – Calculated Risk
  • New High Share for Multifamily Built-for-Rent – NAHB
  • NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.07 million SAAR in July. Median Prices Increased 1.9% YoY in July – Calculated Risk
  • Buyers: Results from the Zillow Consumer Housing Trends Report 2023 – Zillow

On China:

  • Why It’s So Hard for China to Fix Its Real Estate Crisis. Beijing has often addressed economic troubles by boosting spending on infrastructure and real estate, but now heavy debt loads make that a hard playbook to follow – New York Times
  • China should stick to ‘houses are for living, not for speculation’ – state media – Reuters 
  • What to Know About China’s Real Estate Crisis. China’s economy was long dependent on a booming real estate sector, which has recently fallen on harder times. – New York Times
  • China’s property crisis leaves Country Garden with unpaid workers, silent sites – Reuters
  • Why It’s So Hard for China to Fix Its Real Estate Crisis. Beijing has often addressed economic troubles by boosting spending on infrastructure and real estate, but now heavy debt loads make that a hard playbook to follow. – Wall Street Journal
  • China Is on Edge as Fallout From Its Real Estate Crisis Spreads. Beijing wanted to cool its housing market, but created a bigger problem, as the fallout from debt-laden developers and sinking sales spreads to the broader economy. – New York Times
  • How bad could China’s property crisis get? Country Garden is on the edge of default. Here is a worst-case scenario – The Economist
  • For Single Women in China, Owning a Home Is a New Form of Resistance. The housing market in China is in turmoil. But more and more women, facing a less equal society, are buying their own homes in search of security. – New York Times
  • Chinese developer Evergrande files for US bankruptcy protection. Property group’s 2021 bond default triggered sector-wide liquidity crisis in China – FT 
  • Property shakeout Beijing’s tool to fight fiefdoms. There’s no financial crisis in China, just a political standoff over local government finances – Asia Times
  • China’s property woes sparking contagion fears. Beleaguered property developers are finding it more and more difficult to pay back bank loans and meet debt obligations – Asia Times
  • China’s property sector, not deflation risk, is its top economic worry. China’s consumer price index falling for the first time since 2021 has raised fears of deflation, but a closer look at the data paints a different picture. Weak home sales and large developers’ ailing finances are weighing on the property sector as policymakers try to revive spending but keep housing affordable – South China Morning Post
  • China surprisingly holds mortgage rate, underwhelming move raises easing outlook concerns. China’s one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was cut from 3.55 per cent to 3.45 per cent, but the five-year LPR remained unchanged at 4.2 per cent. Analysts have warned that a real impact on housing demand and the economy would require more than just rate cuts – South China Morning Post

On other countries:

  • [Australia] Housing plans unlikely to close door on rent rises – Financial Review
  • [Canada] Canada considering foreign student visa cap to address housing shortage – Reuters
  • [Germany] German home building permits tumble amid calls for stimulus – Reuters
  • [Singapore] Singapore to Tackle Public Housing Worries After Surge in Prices. Analysts expect tweaks to income ceiling, more subsidies. PM Lee signaled policy adjustments are on the way in speech – Bloomberg
  • [South Korea] IMF Sees Debt Risks for Korean Non-Bank Lenders Tied to Property. ‘Pockets of vulnerability’ seen, notably among non-bank firms. Property sector is systemically important: IMF’s Korea chief – Bloomberg
  • [Sweden] Swedish Housing Market Gets Good News as Prices May Have Bottomed. Home prices are down 12% from peak and may have reached trough. Most forecasters have penciled in 20% drop in values – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Young Buyers Get Boost from Improving UK Housing Affordability. Surge in wages causes fall in house price to earnings ratio. However, the burden of mortgages for UK households rises – Bloomberg

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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