Housing View – August 11, 2023

On cross-country:

  • Global Home Prices Reveal Interest-Rate Pain Ripe for FX Traders. Weak housing markets may spur premature end to hiking cycles. Strategists see pain for Swedish, New Zealand currencies ahead – Bloomberg
  • Recovery? Crisis? Where you stand on the state of housing markets depends on where you sit. Housing prices are rising in several countries, even those with high levels of household debt and large proportions of floating rate mortgages. However, the persistence of acute vulnerabilities means global property markets will continue to emit mixed signals and perception depends on one’s stake – South China Morning Post

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • How High Mortgage Rates Fuel Inflation. It’s costlier to move, so fewer houses are on the market. Less supply means higher prices and rents. – Wall Street Journal
  • The impact of 7% Mortgage Rates – Calculated Risk
  • Home-equity loans make a comeback. Mortgage tool led to risks before the financial crisis but it is now increasing in demand again – FT
  • Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Increased Month-to-month to New Record High in June. “Pretty safe bet” that now is the “worst affordable market” – Calculated Risk
  • Where Is Shelter Inflation Headed? – San Francisco Fed
  • Rising Mortgage Rates and Home Prices Put a Damper on Housing Affordability – NAHB

On the US—other developments:    

  • Our Carrie Bradshaw index calculates where Americans can afford to live alone. In many cities even the most basic apartments are unaffordable – The Economist
  • Meet America’s disguised property investors. They do not live in the homes they have bet on. Can they live with the bets they have made? – The Economist
  • Converting Brown Offices to Green Apartments – NBER
  • July 2023 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
  • Real Estate Helped Drive Wealth Gains during the Pandemic – St. Louis Fed
  • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in July. Early Reporting Markets Suggest Sales Down Less YoY in July than in June NSA – Calculated Risk
  • Atlanta Fed: Home Ownership Affordability Monitor – Calculated Risk
  • The Average American Homeowner Has Nearly $200,000 in Home Equity, Thanks to Rising House Prices – Realtor.com
  • The Anti-California, How Montana performed a housing miracle – The Atlantic
  • First American City to Tame Inflation Owes Its Success to Affordable Housing. The Minneapolis area has seen an increase in rental units, thanks to a regional effort that included new zoning rules. – Bloomberg  

On China:

  • Another Big Chinese Property Domino Is Wobbling. Bonds of Country Garden, China’s largest developer by contracted sales, have been in free fall – The Guardian
  • How social housing could get China’s economy and population growing again. Policymakers have enacted easing measures for the property sector, but the impact is likely to be limited and fail to address the underlying causes. Looking to the Singapore model of social housing could be the best way to get China back on track – South China Morning Post

On other countries:  

  • [Denmark] House Prices in Denmark Rise as Wages Go Up And Interest Rates Stabilize. House prices are up 4% since February following big slump. Denmark set to avoid same decline seen in neighboring Sweden – Bloomberg
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong: cheaper homes show city is Central no more. Property market slump in mainland China is partly to blame and locals are in no position to pick up the slack – FT
  • [United Kingdom] Housebuilders: rate rises hit profits like a ton of bricks. Yet Taylor Wimpey’s share price is up, despite a fall in pre-tax profits – FT
  • [United Kingdom] Lenders cut mortgage rates despite latest BoE rate rise. Pain of higher interest rates is having an uneven effect on the housing market that looks set to persist – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall for fourth consecutive month, Halifax figures show. Property market displays resilience in face of sharp rise in interest rates with modest declines – FT
  • [United Kingdom] Four large UK lenders announce mortgage rate cuts. Reductions by Nationwide, HSBC, TSB and Halifax come as competition in home loan market intensifies – FT

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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