Housing View – August 18, 2023

On cross-country:

  • Housing costs making UK households much poorer than US peers, study finds. Report says wealth gap would be wider if not for over-priced or ineffective services such as healthcare in US – The Guardian
  • Global Residential Update – Knight Frank

Conference/Working Papers

  • Borrowing constraints, own labour and homeownership – IDEAS
  • Mortgage Spreads and the Yield Curve – Richmond Fed
  • Monetary policy transmission with adjustable and fixed rate mortgages: The role of credit supply – VoxEU 

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Location, location, location: Mortgage rate impact varies by metro – Dallas Fed
  • The “New Normal” Mortgage Rate Range – Calculated Risk
  • Gen Z’s Housing Anguish. To afford rent, young American adults are making tough choices. – New York Times
  • Builder Confidence Falls on Rising Mortgage Rates – NAHB
  • US Housing Affordability Hits Worst Point in Nearly Four Decades. A surge in borrowing costs is making home purchases more expensive with little relief in sight. – Bloomberg
  • US housing starts surge in boost to economy – Reuters

On the US—other developments:    

  • The Long-Term Housing and Population Shift – Calculated Risk
  • 2023 Q2 Cross-Market Demand Report: A Growing Number of Home Shoppers Are Looking for Homes in Other Markets – Realtor.com
  • 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in July. Local Market Data Suggests July Sales Rate Close to June Sales Rate – Calculated Risk
  • Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August – Calculated Risk
  • July Housing Starts: Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction. Housing Starts Increased to 1.452 million Annual Rate in July – Calculated Risk
  • US homebuilders defy interest rate rise as Buffett buys in. New construction makes up 30% of market with current homeowners clinging to cheaper mortgages – FT
  • Warren Buffett just made a big bet on the U.S. housing market – Fortune
  • CoreLogic: US Home Investor Share Remained High in Early Summer 2023 – Calculated Risk
  • US housing market in gridlock, with risks emerging – ING
  • Why Wall Street is Gung-ho on the Housing Market. Despite mortgage rates hitting multidecade highs and jitters in the bond market, demand for new homes is strong and prices are rising. – New York Times  

On China:

  • China’s deepening property crisis threatens trouble. Country Garden is on the edge of default. What would a worst-case scenario look like? – The Economist
  • China Home Prices Drop at Faster Pace as Downturn Worsens. Second month of declines adds to evidence of weaker market. Government is trying to rekindle demand in housing sector – Bloomberg
  • China’s Housing Slump Is Much Worse Than Official Data Shows. Property values show variance between agents, official data. Uncertainty over data could have implications for policy – Bloomberg
  • China’s housing market is . . . not good. How long until it bans property data releases as well? – FT
  • China’s Economic Woes Deepen With Housing Market Slump – Bloomberg
  • Contagion fears spread as China property sector cash crunch intensifies – Reuters
  • China’s Deepening Housing Problems Spook Investors. Stocks in Hong Kong and mainland China drop after developer Country Garden flags more debt problems – Wall Street Journal  
  • The moment of reckoning looms large for China’s property market as crisis deepens. There are signs China’s real estate party is coming to an end, and the moment of reckoning is looming large for property developers, homeowners and the government. China’s move to allow home ownership in the late 1990s unleashed a spectacular property market boom, leading to phenomenal wealth creation – South China Morning Post

On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Australian PM Offers Cash to States to Help Ease Housing Crisis. Rents recorded biggest increase in 14 years in second quarter. Government’s signature housing laws remain stuck in the Senate – Bloomberg
  • [Australia] National cabinet agrees to build 1.2m new homes in bid to tackle housing crisis. Albanese announces ‘new home bonus’ of up to $3bn for states and territories but continues to reject Greens calls for rent freeze – The Guardian
  • [Australia] Back yard blitz: are Australia’s heritage laws thwarting housing density? Urban density advocates say heritage laws are being weaponised to constrain development at a time of housing crisis, but experts say the two can live side by side – The Guardian
  • [Australia] The regional housing markets where prices are set to surge – Financial Review
  • [Korea] South Korea house prices snap 13 months of decline – Reuters
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices edge higher, buyers returning to market – Reinz – New Straits Times 
  • [Sweden] Swedes Signal Optimism on Home Prices for Third Straight Month – Bloomberg
  • [Sweden] Sweden’s Depressed Housing Starts Exacerbate Shortage of Homes. Dwelling component of Byggfakta indicator is at nine-year low. Decline in home construction follows housing market slump – Bloomberg
  • [United Arab Emirates] Dubai’s Housing Boom Starts to Spread to the City’s Outskirts. Apartment prices rise at record pace amid strong demand. Demand rises in secondary districts where values had lagged – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] The UK Housing Market Hangs in the Balance – Bloomberg

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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