Inclusive Growth

Global Housing Watch

Forecasting Forum

Energy & Climate Change

Housing Market in San Marino

From the IMF’s latest report on San Marino:

“Housing construction picked up from low levels while car registration has dropped.”

From the IMF’s latest report on San Marino:

“Housing construction picked up from low levels while car registration has dropped.”

Read the full article…

Posted by at 11:20 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Share of global cumulative CO₂ emissions

Posted by at 9:19 AM

Labels: Energy & Climate Change

The Structural Determinants of the Labor Share in Europe

From a new IMF working paper by Dilyana Dimova:

The labor share in Europe has been on a downward trend. This paper finds that the decline is concentrated in manufacture and among low- to mid-skilled workers. The shifting nature of employment away from full-time jobs and a rollback of employment protection, unemployment benefits and unemployment benefits have been the main contributors. Technology and globalization hurt sectors where jobs are routinizable but helped others that require specialized skills. High-skilled professionals gained labor share driven by productivity aided by flexible work environments, while low- and mid-skilled workers lost labor share owing to globalization and the erosion of labor market safety nets.

The value-added share accrued to labor commonly known as the labor share—the ratio of labor compensation (wages and benefits) to national income—has been on a downward trend in the EU in the last couple of decades (Figure 1). This trend is observed both in recession-hit Advanced Economies (AE) like Ireland, Portugal and Spain as well as in economically prosperous Germany and the Netherlands (Figure 1, upper panels), and began around 2012–13 after the Great Recession (GR). In New Member States (NMS), Estonia, Hungary, Latvia and Lithuania experienced a decline in 2009–15 and are on the rebound (Figure 1, lower panels). Other NMS economies such as Croatia, Poland and Romania have yet to return to their 2002 levels. The positive exception is Bulgaria whose labor share has been on an upward trend due to an economic deepening from relatively low levels.

This paper looks at the evolution of the labor share by industry and by skill level and considers the effect of various structural factors on the EU-wide stagnation and erosion of the labor share. Following Dao et al. (2017), first a shift-share analysis is used to demonstrate the extent to which the downward trend in the labor share is driven by within-sector/skill category declines or by changes across sectors/skill category. The analysis establishes that within-sector/skill category changes account for the majority of labor share fluctuations and provides justification for the structural factor analysis. Then the paper quantifies the extent to which structural drivers track changes in the labor share in 28 EU-member countries, representing both advanced economies and transitional economies, in a cross-country panel study that uses disaggregated data for twelve industry sectors and three skill categories.”

 

From a new IMF working paper by Dilyana Dimova:

The labor share in Europe has been on a downward trend. This paper finds that the decline is concentrated in manufacture and among low- to mid-skilled workers. The shifting nature of employment away from full-time jobs and a rollback of employment protection, unemployment benefits and unemployment benefits have been the main contributors. Technology and globalization hurt sectors where jobs are routinizable but helped others that require specialized skills.

Read the full article…

Posted by at 4:37 PM

Labels: Inclusive Growth

House Prices in Bulgaria

From the IMF’s latest report on Bulgaria:

“Credit growth has picked up. Both consumer and mortgage loan growth has been buoyant, accompanied by strong housing price increases (averaging 7.5 percent y/y since 2016). Credit to corporates has also been recovering and reached 5.4 percent y/y in 2018, the highest level since 2013, while credit standards have slightly tightened or remained unchanged recently. But non-financial corporate debt remains high among the new member states (NMS)—notwithstanding a marked decline from 106 percent of GDP in 2008 to 80 percent of GDP in 2017. Overall credit-to-GDP ratio remains below the historical trend, with the ratio substantially below the peak reached in 2010.”

From the IMF’s latest report on Bulgaria:

“Credit growth has picked up. Both consumer and mortgage loan growth has been buoyant, accompanied by strong housing price increases (averaging 7.5 percent y/y since 2016). Credit to corporates has also been recovering and reached 5.4 percent y/y in 2018, the highest level since 2013, while credit standards have slightly tightened or remained unchanged recently. But non-financial corporate debt remains high among the new member states (NMS)—notwithstanding a marked decline from 106 percent of GDP in 2008 to 80 percent of GDP in 2017.

Read the full article…

Posted by at 4:32 PM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

The Remarkable Renaissance in US Fossil Fuel Production

From Conversable Economist:

“M. King Hubbert was a big-name geologist who worked much of his career for Shell oil. Back in the 1970s, when OPEC taught the US that the price of oil was set in global markets, discussions of US energy production often began with the “Hubbert curve,” based on a 1956 paper in which Hubbert predicted with considerable accuracy that US oil production would peak around 1970. The  2019 Economic Report of the President devotes a chapter to energy policy, and offers a reminder what happened with Hubbert’s curve.

The red line shows Hubbert’s predicted oil production curve from 1956. The blue line shows actual US oil production in the lower 48 states. At the time of Hubbert’s death in 1989, his forecast looked spot-on. Even by around 2010, his forecast looked pretty good. But for those of us who had built up a habit since the 1970s of looking at US oil production relative to Hubbert’s prediction, the last decade has been a dramatic shock.

Continue reading here.

From Conversable Economist:

“M. King Hubbert was a big-name geologist who worked much of his career for Shell oil. Back in the 1970s, when OPEC taught the US that the price of oil was set in global markets, discussions of US energy production often began with the “Hubbert curve,” based on a 1956 paper in which Hubbert predicted with considerable accuracy that US oil production would peak around 1970. The  2019 Economic Report of the President devotes a chapter to energy policy,

Read the full article…

Posted by at 9:29 AM

Labels: Energy & Climate Change

Home Older Posts

Subscribe to: Posts