The Unassuming Economist

From a new paper by Jörg Döpke, Ulrich Fritsche, and Karsten Müller:

“Based on a panel of annual data for 17 growth and inflation forecasts from 14 institutions for Germany, we analyse forecast accuracy for the periods before and after the Great Recession, including measures of directional change accuracy based on Receiver Operating Curves (ROC). We find only small differences on forecast accuracy between both time periods. We test whether the conditions for forecast rationality hold in both time periods. We document an increased crosssection variance of forecasts and a changed correlation between inflation and growth forecast errors after the crisis, which might hint to a changed forecaster behaviour. This is also supported by estimated loss functions before and after the crisis, which suggest a stronger incentive to avoid overestimations (growth) and underestimations (inflation) after the crisis. Estimating loss functions for a 10—year rolling window also reveal shifts in the level and direction of loss asymmetry and strengthens the impression of a changed forecaster behaviour after the Great Recession.”

The new IMF Regional Economic Outlook for Asia Pacific says that “Growth in Asian economies has picked up in line with global developments. Asia grew by 5.7 percent in 2017, up 0.3 of a percent from the year before, with the pickup broad-based across the region (Table 1.1). Asia continues to be both the fastest-growing region in the world and the main engine of the world’s economy, contributing more than 60 percent of global growth (three-quarters of which comes from China and India) (Figure 1.6). Consumption and investment continue to be major contributors. The contribution of net exports remained small, but the strong growth of gross exports and imports suggests that the recovery in external demand (both inside and outside the region) was an important driver of GDP growth in Asia (Figures 1.7 and 1.8).”

From the new IMF Regional Economic Outlook for Asia Pacific:

“The main findings are as follows:

• Recent low inflation has been driven mainly by temporary forces, including imported inflation. Phillips curve estimation indicates that weaker import prices, including low commodity prices, contributed to half of the undershooting of inflation targets in advanced Asia and most of the undershooting in emerging Asia in recent years. In addition, China seems to have played an important role in driving both global and regional inflation. More generally, an analysis looking at temporary and trend components suggests that temporary shocks have accounted for the bulk of the recent reduction in inflation.
• The inflation process has become more backward-looking. While inflation expectations are generally relatively well anchored, especially in advanced Asia and in economies with inflation-targeting frameworks, the importance of expectations in driving inflation has declined in recent years with past inflation playing a larger role.
• The sensitivity of inflation to the unemployment gap has declined. There seems to be a flattening of the Phillips curve compared to the 1990s in advanced Asia and a similar but more continuous flattening in emerging Asia. Outside of Asia, the slope of the Phillips curve seems to have been more stable.”

“The main policy implications of the findings are:

• Central banks should be vigilant in responding to early signs of inflationary pressure, including from global factors. A sudden increase in inflation may then persist, and disinflating may be costly if sensitivity of inflation to the unemployment gap has declined.
• It will be important to strengthen monetary policy frameworks and improve central bank communications in order both to increase the role of expectations in driving inflation and to maintain expectations anchored to targets.
• To mitigate the role of imported inflation, exchange rates should be allowed to adjust more flexibly.
• In principle, the monetary policy response to commodity price shocks should be to accommodate first- round effects but not the second-round effects.”

For a list of 21st-century Indian economists, click here.

For a list of 20th-century Indian economists, click here.