Showing posts with label Global Housing Watch. Show all posts
Friday, January 10, 2025
Working papers and conferences:
On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:
On the US—other developments:
On Australia and New Zealand:
On other countries:
Working papers and conferences:
Posted by at 5:00 AM
Labels: Global Housing Watch
Sunday, January 5, 2025
From a paper by Prince Mensah Osei, Johnny Lo, Ute Mueller, Steven Richardson, and Ebenezer Afrifa-Yamoah:
“Time-frequency domain analysis of housing prices can provide insights into significant periodic patterns in the pricing dynamics for modelling and forecasting purposes. This study applied wavelet and information entropy analyses to examine the periodic patterns and evolution of housing prices in Australia’s eight capital cities from 1980 to 2023, using quarterly median house pricing data. Our findings revealed consistent patterns of higher variability in housing prices at high frequencies across all cities, with Melbourne exhibiting the highest variability. This indicates that short-term price fluctuations were higher than long-term changes. Perth and Brisbane demonstrated notable cyclical patterns with recurring periods of growth and decline. Coherence analyses revealed dynamic lead–lag relationships, both positive and negative, between housing prices of various cities, suggesting interconnectedness but not always synchronisation. Some cities’ housing prices dominated the information sharing, indicating varying degrees of influence within the national market. These findings highlight the complex, dynamic interdependencies among Australia’s major city housing markets, providing valuable insights for policymakers, investors, and stakeholders in economic forecasting, policy development and strategic planning within these markets.”
From a paper by Prince Mensah Osei, Johnny Lo, Ute Mueller, Steven Richardson, and Ebenezer Afrifa-Yamoah:
“Time-frequency domain analysis of housing prices can provide insights into significant periodic patterns in the pricing dynamics for modelling and forecasting purposes. This study applied wavelet and information entropy analyses to examine the periodic patterns and evolution of housing prices in Australia’s eight capital cities from 1980 to 2023,
Posted by at 1:28 PM
Labels: Global Housing Watch
Friday, January 3, 2025
From a paper by Rasmus Bisgaard Larsen, Søren Hove Ravn, and Emiliano Santoro:
“We present aggregate and regional evidence showing that U.S. house prices increase persistently in response to positive shocks to fiscal spending. In sharp contrast to this, house prices decline in conventional dynamic general equilibrium models, where shocks that have short-lived effects on the shadow value of housing inevitably generate negative comovement between households’ marginal utility of consumption and house prices (see Barsky et al., 2007). In response to an increase in government spending, the negative wealth effect exerted by the simultaneous increase in the present-value tax burden increases the marginal utility of consumption. Even overcoming the consumption crowding-out puzzle is not sufficient to resolve this shortcoming. To tackle this problem, we extend an otherwise standard model embedding a lender-borrower relationship with alternative—yet, potentially complementary—propagation channels that leverage the expansion in total factor productivity stemming from a positive shock to fiscal spending, so as to contrast the negative wealth effect of higher taxes. This class of models succeeds in generating a persistent expansion in house prices, although the propagation required to match the data is stronger—in some cases significantly so—than what is typically found in the literature. The positive interplay between house prices and productivity finds support in both aggregate and regional data.”
From a paper by Rasmus Bisgaard Larsen, Søren Hove Ravn, and Emiliano Santoro:
“We present aggregate and regional evidence showing that U.S. house prices increase persistently in response to positive shocks to fiscal spending. In sharp contrast to this, house prices decline in conventional dynamic general equilibrium models, where shocks that have short-lived effects on the shadow value of housing inevitably generate negative comovement between households’ marginal utility of consumption and house prices (see Barsky et al.,
Posted by at 8:04 AM
Labels: Global Housing Watch
From a paper by Remi Jedwab, Elena Ianchovichina, and Federico Haslop:
“Census data for 7000 cities – three fourth of the world’s urban population – reveal that cities of the same population size in countries with similar development levels differ substantially in terms of their employment composition, especially in the developing world. Using these data, we classify cities into production cities with high employment shares of urban tradables (e.g., manufacturing or business services), consumption cities with high employment shares of urban non-tradables (e.g., retail and personal services), or neutral cities with a balanced mix of urban tradables and non-tradables. After establishing stylized facts regarding the sectoral distribution of employment in our global sample of cities, we discuss the various paths by which developing nations may urbanize through production cities – via industrialization or tradable services – or consumption cities – via resource exports, agricultural exports, or deindustrialization. Country and city-level data corroborate our hypotheses. Results on the construction of very tall buildings also provide suggestive evidence on the relationship between resource exports and consumption cities. Importantly, consumption cities seem to present lower growth opportunities than production cities, diminishing the role of cities as “engines of growth.” Understanding how sectoral structure mediates the urbanization-growth relationship and how consumption cities become production cites is thus highly relevant for policy.”
From a paper by Remi Jedwab, Elena Ianchovichina, and Federico Haslop:
“Census data for 7000 cities – three fourth of the world’s urban population – reveal that cities of the same population size in countries with similar development levels differ substantially in terms of their employment composition, especially in the developing world. Using these data, we classify cities into production cities with high employment shares of urban tradables (e.g.,
Posted by at 8:00 AM
Labels: Global Housing Watch
Thursday, January 2, 2025
Posted by at 11:01 AM
Labels: Global Housing Watch
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