The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Saliu, Mojeed Olanrewaju and Akode, Thomas Ojo:

“This study examines the impact of macroeconomic fundamentals on the House Prices in twelve selected African countries, using time series data spanning from 2000 to 2020. The study employs Westerlund Error Correction Based Panel Cointegration test to examine the impact of some domestic (RINTR, RGDPGR, EXR, SP) and foreign (USRINTR, WRGDPGR, WOP) macroeconomic fundamentals on House Price Index. Findings from the study reveal that there is a long-run relationship between the House Price Index and The macroeconomic fundamentals. The research work also confirms that foreign macroeconomic fundamentals are better determinants of House Price than the domestic macroeconomic fundamentals in the selected African countries during the period under review.”

IMF’s F&D Magazine on The Economics of Housing:

• Housing’s Unique Role in Lives and Economies Demands Greater Understanding. Affordability and other complex housing issues challenging governments can be better revealed in broader economic analysis – IMF Blog
• Walkways, Not Walls. There are benefits to better connecting macroeconomics with real estate economics – F&D
• The Housing Affordability Crunch. A newly developed dataset shows how the pandemic’s aftermath ushered in the worst housing affordability crisis in more than a decade – F&D
• Housing Markets and Monetary Policy. Comprehensive, country-specific understanding of housing and mortgage markets can help calibrate monetary policy – F&D
• The True Cost of Living. Sharply higher borrowing costs, especially for housing, fueled a disconnect between inflation statistics and consumer sentiment – F&D
• How To Spot Housing Bubbles. Early detection and mitigation can help deflate asset bubbles before they burst – F&D
• China’s Real Estate Challenge. Sliding property prices may presage a painful economic adjustment – F&D
• Are Housing Markets Broken? Many people aspire to own their own home, but it’s becoming increasingly unaffordable – F&D
• Falling Out of Favor. Some countries are turning against foreign buyers as soaring property prices become political – F&D
• São Paulo Reclaims Its Center. Brazil’s megalopolis combines federal and municipal programs to retrofit buildings in the downtown area – F&D
• Housing Africa’s Growing Population. Deeper understanding of informality and better use of technology can build more sustainable housing markets – F&D
• Housing Costs Mount. A look at rising housing cost trend – F&D
• Hidden Fortunes. How dirty money distorts real estate markets – F&D

Working papers and conferences:

• Macroprudential Policy and Capital Flows – CEPR
• Climate change’s impact on real estate prices in Chile – Central Bank of Chile
• From Novelty to Norm: Uncovering the Drivers of Virtual Tour Effectiveness in Real Estate Sales – NBER
• CFP: Real Estate Economics Special Issue on Housing and Housing Policy – The American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Housing Forecast 2025: Mortgage Rates To Stay Above 6% as Home Prices Grow – Realtor.com
• Trump may renew a housing fight that could rattle mortgage rates – CNN
• US Mortgage Rates Decline to 6.69%, Lowest Since Mid-October – Bloomberg
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in October; Up 3.7% Year-over-year. 18 of the 35 cities with largest price declines are in Florida! – Calculated Risk
• US Home Price Insights – December 2024 – CoreLogic
• CoreLogic: Annual Home Price Growth Stalls in October – CoreLogic
• Can rent control have adverse effects on housing affordability? – Econofact
• Giant homebuilders are taking over the housing market—just look at Lennar. Giant homebuilder Lennar recently announced it is acquiring competitor Rausch Coleman Homes, accelerating a housing market trend. – Fast Company
• New York City Rental Report October 2024: What Home Can a Manhattan Renter Afford Across the U.S.? – Realtor.com
• Pro Take: A Trump Deportation Plan Could Have Mixed Impact on Still-Hot Housing Inflation. Construction worker shortages and falling numbers of renters in some areas could both influence housing prices – Wall Street Journal
• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.4% Below 2022 Peak. Price-to-rent index is 8.1% below 2022 peak – Calculated Risk
• Private Residential Construction Spending Rises in October – NAHB
• These local housing markets are shifting—just look at inventory. Some housing markets in the Southwest and Southeast are weakening, while others in the Midwest, Northeast, and Southern California remain tight. – Fast Company
• Construction Labor Market Continues to Ease – NAHB
• Where Residential Construction Thrives: Metro Area Hotspots for Jobs and Businesses – NAHB

On the US—other developments:    

• Home builders are cheering Trump’s return to the White House. Companies are eager for lighter regulations. But they also could see their industry strained by tariffs and immigration changes. – Washington Post
• Donald Trump’s Second Term Could Bring ‘Significant Shifts’ to the Housing Market – Realtor.com
• This Old House? Home Buyers’ Best Deals Are on Builders’ Lots. The premium that buyers usually have to pay for a brand-new house is disappearing – Wall Street Journal
• Housing Becoming Unaffordable for First-Time Homebuyers – Apollo Academy
• The Unsung Power Players of Real Estate: How Gen X Carves Up a Significant Slice of the Market – Realtor.com
• Construction Industry Braces for One-Two Punch: Tariffs and Deportations. Trump’s immigration and trade policies put home builders in a vulnerable position – Wall Street Journal
• Housing Cost Burdens Climb to Record Levels (Again) in 2023 – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• The Mysteries of Cities and Economic Growth – AEI

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] An Overview Of Australia’s Housing Market And Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities – S&P Global
• [Australia] Tight supply and lower interest rates to lift Australia home prices – Reuters poll – Reuters
• [Australia] How far house prices have soared above fair value – The Sydney Morning Herald
• [Australia] Australian Home Prices Rise at Weakest Pace in Almost Two Years – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Rate cuts won’t stimulate a big upswing in house prices: CoreLogic – Financial Review
• [Australia] Aussie capital cities where house prices are falling and booming: ‘Wealth effect’ – Yahoo Finance
• [Australia] Australia’s housing market loses steam with prices falling in Sydney and Melbourne. More houses for sale in country’s two biggest cities in November than there were at this time of year since 2018 – The Guardian
• [Australia] Why it’s the least worst time to buy a home in three years – The Sydney Morning Herald
• [Australia] How Much Further Will Sydney and Melbourne House Prices Fall? – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] New Zealand House Prices Fell a Ninth Straight Month in November – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] New Zealand home prices to rise modestly in coming two years: Reuters poll – Reuters

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Toronto Housing Sales Climb With Buyers Flocking Back to Market. Benchmark price measure increased for a second-straight month. Real estate board president says stage is set for recovery – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Home builders are only part of the solution to the housing crisis – The Globe and Mail
• [Denmark] Why being close to a cycle network can boost house prices – The Conversation
• [France] Paris joins clampdown on holiday apartment rentals, blamed for housing shortage. French capital takes advantage of new law to curb apartment rentals to tourists. Officials say practice limits housing supply for residents – South China Morning Post
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s property slump may be terminal. Demographics and geopolitics will make a recovery harder – The Economist
• [Ireland] Paul McNeive: Has increased housing supply come in time to save the Government? – Irish Independent
• [Ireland] ‘Nothing can be built’: Northern Ireland sewage crisis hits housing construction. Property prices surge as 19,000 homes are left on hold due to lack of wastewater services – FT
• [Norway] Norway Cuts Home Loan Equity Need to Help First-Time Buyers – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] House prices and sales across UK expected to rise in early 2025. Buyers seeking to benefit from expiring tax breaks and pent-up demand predicted to drive up costs, according to Zoopla report – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK Home Prices Rise by Most Since March 2022, Lender Says. Average 1.2% price in November far exceeded expectations. Wage gains helping to support buyer interest, Nationwide says – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise at fastest rate in nearly two years. Nationwide reports surprise growth despite near-record prices straining affordability – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK Housebuilding Falls Most in Five Months in Wake of Budget – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Why London’s property market is stagnating. The capital is stuck in a rut; digging itself out is not going to be easy — or cheap – FT

Walkways, Not Walls | There are benefits to better connecting macroeconomics with real estate economics | Prakash Loungani 

The Housing Affordability Crunch | A newly developed dataset shows how the pandemic’s aftermath ushered in the worst housing affordability crisis in more than a decade | Deniz Igan 

The True Cost of Living | Sharply higher borrowing costs, especially for housing, fueled a disconnect between inflation statistics and consumer sentiment | Lawrence Summers, Marijn Bolhuis, and Judd Cramer 

China’s Real Estate Challenge | Sliding property prices may presage a painful economic adjustment | Kenneth Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang 

São Paulo Reclaims Its Center | Brazil’s megalopolis combines federal and municipal programs to retrofit buildings in the downtown area | Elizabeth Johnson 

Housing Africa’s Growing Population | Deeper understanding of informality and better use of technology can build more sustainable housing markets | Kecia Rust 

How To Spot Housing Bubbles | Early detection and mitigation can help deflate asset bubbles before they burst | Enrique Martínez García 

Housing Markets and Monetary Policy | Comprehensive, country-specific understanding of housing and mortgage markets can help calibrate monetary policy | Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi, Nina Biljanovska, and Alessia De Stefani 

Falling Out of Favor | Some countries are turning against foreign buyers as soaring property prices become political | Maria Petrakis 

Hidden Fortunes | How dirty money distorts real estate markets | Chady El Khoury 

Back to Basics | Are housing markets broken? | Hites Ahir  

Picture This | A look at rising housing cost trend | Marta Doroszczyk

On cross-country:

• BIS residential property price statistics, Q2 2024 – BIS
• Home prices set to rise in Singapore, Hong Kong, Australia in 2025 – Yahoo News 

Working papers and conferences:

• Why Has Construction Productivity Stagnated? The Role of Land-Use Regulation – NBER
• The Amplifying Effect of Spatial Planning Restrictions on House Prices and Rents – SSRN
• Energy Price Shock and Housing Market Dynamics: Evidence from Germany – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• US Housing Outlook – Apollo
• Zillow’s Housing Market Predictions for 2025. Zillow predicts more buyers will come out ahead in a bumpy 2025, but unpredictable mortgage rates cloud the picture – Zillow
• Preliminary 2025 Housing Forecasts – Calculated Risk
• 5 housing markets to watch in 2025. The Sun Belt continues to draw the most new residents — and investments – Quartz
• Housing struggles to stave off headwinds. The November Economics Insider deep dives into the impact of high mortgage rates and home prices on the housing market. While some near-term respite is likely, long-term hurdles will remain. – Deloitte
• Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – Freddie Mac
• Seventh Straight Month of Yearly Deceleration in Home Prices – NAHB
• S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index—Home Prices Up 3.9% in September – Realtor.com
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in September – Calculated Risk
• US monthly house prices rise strongly in September – Reuters
• Housing market shift: Where home prices are actually falling. Some regional housing markets in Texas, Florida, and Louisiana, are experiencing mild home price corrections. – Fast Company
• US Home-Purchase Applications Rise to Highest Since February – Bloomberg
• Best Quarter for Multifamily Missing Middle Construction in 17 Years – NAHB
• Single-Family Home Size Nearing Turning Point? – NAHB
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales – Calculated Risk
• October 2024 Rental Report: Rents Continue to Fall, With More New Units Expected in 2025 – Realtor.com
• New Home Sales Decrease Sharply to 610,000 Annual Rate in October. Median New Home Price is Down 5% from the Peak due to Change in Mix – Calculated Risk
• October New Home Sales Down on Higher Rates – NAHB
• Make it count: Measuring our housing supply shortage – Brookings
• New-Home Sales Cool Down in October – Realtor.com
• Small Gain for Multifamily Built-for-Sale Construction – NAHB
• Apartment Completions Rise Resulting in Slower Absorption Rates – NAHB

On the US—other developments:    

• N.Y.C. Housing Plan Moves Forward With an Unexpected $5 Billion Boost. A City Council committee passed a major proposal that would ease restrictions on housing growth in New York. The full Council is likely to approve it next month. – New York Times
• Brooklyn Needs Housing. She Has a Vacant Lot. Why Can’t She Build? A property owner’s effort to develop an apartment building in a popular neighborhood has been stymied for years. She may just give up. – New York Times
• HUD’s Authority Rests on a House of Cards. Where in the Constitution is there any authority to govern “housing and urban development”? – Wall Street Journal
• The Enigma of the Slum in Postwar America – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• The Future of Homebuilding: Domestic Migration Is Driving the Housing Market – Realtor.com
• Could Donald Trump crush the US property market? – Financial Review
• How the Trump administration might affect D.C.’s housing market – Axios
• A Decade of Soaring Home Prices: Where Affordability Still Thrives – National Association of Realtors
• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in October – Calculated Risk 
• U.S. housing affordability to worsen even as price rises slow: Reuters poll – Reuters
• A Housing Crisis Deepens, and a Reporter Digs In. To really communicate with people about the many problems arrayed across the housing landscape, we needed to cut through the noise. – New York Times 

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Suburbs where home values plunged – and set a trap for buyers – The Sydney Morning Herald
• [Australia] Sydney and Melbourne house prices tipped to fall in 2025. But SQM research report warns that prices in other Australian capitals are likely to surge, depending on interest rates and population growth rates – The Guardian
• [Australia] New home construction slumps to near 40-year low in Australia as renovation spending booms. ‘This indicates that there is not enough money and resources being attracted to expanding the housing stock,’ urban economist says – The Guardian

On other countries:  

• [Brazil] A Look Overseas: The Brazilian Real Estate Tech Ecosystem. Trends and lessons from the evolution of real estate tech in Latin America’s largest market – Thesis Driven
• [Germany] German home prices to climb 3% next year on lower rates: Reuters poll – Reuters
• [Ireland] Canadian Relentless house price rises continue with another hike of 10pc – Irish Independent
• [Pakistan] Rebuilding Homes and Strengthening Communities: An Integrated Approach to Pakistan’s Housing Reconstruction – Development Asia
• [United Kingdom] UK property sector hit by fears of resurgent inflation. Big housebuilders have shed billions in value since October Budget – FT

From a paper by Lei Yu, Wenxian Zhou, Yujie Lin, Xinlong Yang and Jue Wang:

“This paper explores the impact of demographic changes on the sustainability of household liabilities, which is crucial for adjusting the effects of demographic shifts and stabilizing household debt levels. Using inter-provincial panel data and econometric models, including fixed effects, systematic GMM, and mediation effect models, the study examines how demographic structure affects household debt sustainability. It finds that the natural population structure has a more significant impact than social or spatial factors. Key results include: (1) higher child and old-age dependency ratios worsen debt sustainability, with regional variations; (2) a favorable gender ratio improves debt sustainability, particularly in the eastern regions; (3) higher income ratios for home-purchase and consumption expenditures, along with GDP growth, benefit debt sustainability, while financial security income has a negative effect; (4) rising house prices mediate the relationship between demographic changes and debt sustainability. The study recommends policy improvements such as incentives for multiple births and enhanced social security.”