Housing View – February 2, 2024

On cross-country:

  • ‘Rent is too damn high!’ Europe’s growing housing crisis – Politico

Working papers and conferences:

  • 4th Workshop on Rent Control on June 20 and 21 – DIW Berlin
  • The effect of new housing supply in structural models: a forecasting performance evaluation – European Central Bank
  • Direct Rental Assistance: Returning to the Roots of Housing Allowances – SSRN
  • Behavioral Lock-In: Aggregate Implications of Reference Dependence in the Housing Market – SSRN
  • Decomposing Fire Sale Discounts in Housing Markets – SSRN
  • The Effect of New Housing Supply in Structural Models: A Forecasting Performance Evaluation – SSRN
  • House of Cards? Perspectives on European Housing – SSRN
  • Intertemporal Risk-Return Relationship in Housing Markets: International Evidence – SSRN
  • Does Political Partisanship Affect Housing Supply? Evidence from Us Cities – SSRN
  • Monetary Policy Shocks And Local Housing Markets – SSRN
  • Income Inequality, Mortgage Debt and House Prices – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Warren Urges Powell to Cut Rates to Help Alleviate Housing Costs. Democratic senators write letter to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. High interest rates crimp housing supply, drive up rents – Bloomberg
  • Mortgage Rates in US to Snap Three-Year Streak of Gains, Survey Shows. Rate on a 30-year, fixed mortgage is expected to fall to 5.5%. For offices, some expect demand to start reaching a bottom. – Bloomberg
  • US Home-Price Growth Slows as High Rates Squeeze Demand. Gains in November eased after borrowing costs hit a high. Buyers are facing prices that are 69% above a 2006 peak – Bloomberg
  • Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 5.1% year-over-year in November. FHFA: House Prices “Up 6.6 Percent from Last Year” – Calculated Risk
  • New Home Sales Bounce Back in December on Lower Mortgage Rates – NAHB
  • Housing is now unaffordable for a record half of all U.S. renters, study findsNPR
  • All-Cash Share of New Home Sales Remains Elevated in 2023 – NAHB
  • Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 6.6% Year-over-year. Austin Prices Down 12.4% from Peak Seasonally Adjusted – Calculated Risk

On the US—other developments:    

  • Brutal Winter Across America Is Keeping the Housing Market on Ice. Even as mortgage rates drop, storms and subzero temperatures have kept a lot of potential buyers on the sideline – Wall Street Journal
  • The One Part of the Housing Market That’s Growing. As owners remain reluctant to put their properties on the market, developers are rushing to build new homes to meet demand. – New York Times
  • Home Selling Profits Drop in 2023 for First Time in Over a Decade Amid Modest Price Gains – ATTOM
  • Where Can Gen Z Buy a Home? Older members of the generation are early in their careers, and they face increases in inflation, home prices and interest rates. – New York Times and Point2
  • Amid a Housing Crunch, Religious Groups Unlock Land to Build Homes. Faith-based organizations are unlocking their real estate to develop affordable housing, but they face challenges from reluctant local residents, wary lenders and strict zoning laws. – New York Times
  • Is Now a Good Time to Buy? – Freddie Mac
  • Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rate Increased Slightly, Multi-family Unchanged in December. CoreLogic: “Home Loan Performance Remains Strong” – Calculated Risk
  • Can You Afford a Home in America’s Top Emerging Housing Market? – Realtor.com
  • ‘We’re at a Turning Point’: Is the Housing Market Finally Thawing—or Is Another Deep Freeze To Come? – Realtor.com

On China:

  • China’s Guangzhou first to completely ease purchase limit on large homes – Reuters
  • Evergrande Set for Liquidation as China Property Crisis Drags On. Developer will end up in new management, judge says in order. Trading in the stock halted after 21% tumble on Monday – Bloomberg
  • Chinese developer Evergrande ordered to be wound up by Hong Kong court. Indebted property group fails to agree restructuring plan with creditors – FT 
  • Evergrande is the teetering domino that can topple its real estate peers. Property prices in China could take yet another hit from deconstruction of the indebted developer – FT
  • China’s Deflation Pressures Seen Persisting Through Mid-2024. Economists also expect home prices will fall m/m until 3Q. 2024 GDP growth expected at 4.6% y/y, up from earlier estimate – Bloomberg
  • Evergrande’s liquidation is a new low in China’s property crisis. A judge in Hong Kong surprises the mainland – The Economist
  • China’s Economy Czar Presses Cities on Funding for Real Estate. Property sector has been a major drag on China’s economy. He Lifeng calls on cities to make timely moves on financing – Bloomberg
  • China Home Sales Slump Persists After Evergrande Liquidation. China Jan new homes sales record low in recent years. Local gov ramped up support by drafting white list projects – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

  • [Canada] How will the Bank of Canada’s rate hold impact the housing market? – Bloomberg
  • [Georgia] Gross rental yields in Georgia: Tbilisi and Batumi – Global Property Guide
  • [Germany] Gross rental yields in Germany: Berlin and 7 other cities – Global Property Guide
  • [Japan] Gross rental yields in Japan: Tokyo and 7 other cities Global Property Guide
  • [Netherlands] Gross rental yields in Netherlands: Amsterdam and 3 other cities – Global Property Guide
  • [New Zealand] Upzoning New Zealand. How a small country started building a lot of homes – Work in Progress
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand House Prices Rise at Slower Pace, CoreLogic Says – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Reliable UK Mortgage Payers Deliver Juiciest Debt Returns Since 2009. Mortgage delinquincies seen at less than 1.3% in 2023. Residential mortgage-backed notes delivered over 6% last year – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Five of the best books about the UK housing crisis. From costs to quality, housing can make you despair. Our best five books explain the politics behind the problems – and the solutions – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] London’s Sky-High Home Prices Are Most Affordable in Decade. Zoopla data shows property in the capital underperforming UK. London homes are still the most expensive in Britain – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise more than expected in January, says Nationwide. Month-on-month increase of 0.7% is fastest pace since October as mortgage rates ease – FT

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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