Housing View – January 26, 2024

On cross-country:

  • Chinese property developers shrivel up in Australia, New Zealand but are they ‘hibernating’ for better times? Many Chinese developers in Australia and New Zealand have closed or scaled back, amid a property crisis in China, weak demand and higher construction costs. Chinese property development in Australasia soared around 2013 at the height of China’s ‘go out policy’ that prompted Chinese firms and citizens to seek overseas investments – South China Morning Post

Working papers and conferences:

  • Racial and ethnic differences in the financial returns to home purchases – Real Estate Economics
  • Gender, Stress, and Job Performance: Agents in the Resale Housing Market – SSRN
  • Investors in Housing Markets: Comparing Two Booms – SSRN
  • Report on the Potential Impacts of Property Tax Abatement on Rental Housing Construction in Boston – SSRN
  • The Impact of COVID-19 on Real Estate Markets in Germany – SSRN
  • Mortgages, House Prices, and Business Cycle Dynamic: A Medium-Run Exploration Using the Continuous Wavelet Transform – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • US home prices forecast to climb as mortgage rates fall to 6.3% in 2024 – Goldman Sachs
  • 2023 was slowest year for US home sales in nearly 30 years as high mortgage rates frustrated buyers – Quartz
  • Mortgage Rates Expected to Dip Below 6 Percent in 2024, Boosting Home Sales – Fannie Mae
  • December Existing Home Sales: Higher Mortgage Rates Pulled Supply And Sales Lower in 2023. Existing home sales dropped again in December, ending the year at 4.09 million, the lowest level in nearly 30 years – Zillow
  • Is This Really ‘the Worst Time to Buy a Home’? Maybe — but it’s not a terrible time to rent. – New York Times
  • Redfin Reports Pending Home Sales Rose 4% in December—Biggest Jump in Over Two Years – Redfin
  • For Property Investors, the Price of Homes Is Still Not Right. Higher interest rates, record home prices are cited for pullback in buying – Wall Street Journal
  • Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – Freddie Mac
  • 1.54 million Total Housing Completions in 2023 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2007
  • Completions Will Likely Increase Further in 2024 – Calculated Risk
  • Finally, America’s Home Inventory Is Rising: Here’s Where It’s Grown the Most – Realtor.com
  • Redfin Home Price Index: Prices Rose 0.4% in December—the Smallest Increase in Six Months – Redfin

On the US—other developments:    

  • America’s Housing Rebound. Despite years of the highest real mortgage interest rates in almost two decades, construction and renovation spending have been holding steady, if not accelerating outright. – The Overshoot
  • The Economy Is Starting to Look Normal—Housing Isn’t. Cooling inflation, a moderating job market and steady growth are making the economy look more familiar. But housing is a complete mess. – Wall Street Journal
  • 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December; California Home Sales Down 7.1% YoY in December – Calculated Risk
  • Boomers won’t part with their homes, and that’s a problem for young families – CNN 
  • More than 43 million US households were cost burdened in 2022 – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
  • Biden’s New Gift to the Housing Lobby. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac raise their loan-guarantee limits to new heights. – Wall Street Journal
  • Record Number of Office-to-Apartment Conversions Planned in 2024. Washington, New York and Dallas lead the trend among US cities. Housing demand, office vacancies drive conversions: RentCafe – Bloomberg
  • Home Price-to-Income Ratio Reaches Record High – Joint Center for Housing Studies
  • Affordable Housing Gets Boost in Congressional Tax Reform Proposal. The bipartisan tax deal would raise allocations for the Low Income Housing Tax Credit, a critical tool for encouraging new home construction. – Bloomberg
  • To meet today’s critical housing challenges, HUD needs a broader, bolder vision – Brookings
  • Builders’ Top Challenges for 2024 – NAHB
  • Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December – Calculated Risk 

On China:

  • Desperate Chinese Property Developers Resort to Bizarre Marketing Tactics. The country’s real-estate slump is getting worse—and looks set to drag on for years – Wall Street Journal

On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Australian houses are less affordable than they have been in decades. In spite of rising borrowing costs, prices have stayed stubbornly resilient – The Economist
  • [Brazil] How to Buy Property in Brazil as a Foreigner – Global Property Guide
  • [Canada] Home price declines in big cities drag down Teranet-National Bank index – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Canada Caps Foreign Student Visas Amid Housing Shortage. Immigration Minister Marc Miller unveils new limits on permits. Number of foreign students tripled to 1 million over 10 years – Bloomberg
  • [Egypt] How to Buy Property in Egypt as a Foreigner – Global Property Guide
  • [Egypt] Gross rental yields in Egypt: Cairo and Alexandria – Global Property Guide
  • [Ireland] Irish house prices close to or at peak, estate agents say. An SCSI report predicts house prices will rise by just 1 per cent this year – The Irish Times
  • [Netherlands] The Netherlands’ housing market downturn continues – Global Property Guide
  • [New Zealand] RBNZ Proposes Looser Low-Deposit Home Loan Rules With New Tool – Bloomberg
  • [Spain] How to Buy Property in Spain as a Foreigner – Global Property Guide
  • [Spain] Deteriorating affordability will dampen Spanish house price growth –ING
  • [Turkey] Turkey’s strong house price growth is just an illusion – Global Property Guide 
  • [United Kingdom] Global investors could spark UK housebuilding boom. Institutional backers attracted by high rental demand and low volatility of residential property market – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK Home Sellers Made £100,000 Profit Per Deal Even In Tough Year. Average seller made about 9% less profit than in 2022. Declining mortgage rates could help turn the tide this year – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Ministers’ 99% mortgage idea could overheat UK housing market, say experts. Scheme to support first-time buyers that would appeal to young voters reportedly being considered by No 10 – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] Housing ombudsman in England calls to re-establish link between housing and health – The Guardian

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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