Housing View – March 22, 2024

On cross-country:

  • Housing Is in Crisis All Around the World – Bloomberg

Working papers and conferences:

  • All That Glitters? Golden Visas and Real Estate – IZA
  • The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates – FHFA
  • Why Not Tax It? The Effects of Property Taxes on House Price and Homeownership – SSRN
  • The impact of prudential regulations on the UK housing market and economy: insights from an agent-based model – Bank of England
  • Book: When Housing Markets Meet Shadow Banking: Bubbles, Mortgages, Securitization, and Fintech – Amazon

On the US—reactions to the real estate group settlement:    

  • The 6% commission on buying or selling a home is gone after Realtors association agrees to seismic settlement – CNN
  • Powerful Realtor Group Agrees to Slash Commissions to Settle Lawsuits. The National Association of Realtors will pay $418 million in damages and will amend several rules that housing experts say will drive down housing costs. – New York Times 
  • A major settlement could spell an end to 6% real estate commissions – NPR
  • 4 Ways a Settlement Could Change the Housing Industry. The influential National Association of Realtors agreed to make several changes to its policies to settle class-action lawsuits brought by home sellers who say they were forced to pay inflated commissions to real estate agents. – New York Times
  • Realtor settlement could bring ‘seismic shift’ to housing market – The Hill
  • Housing Market Upended By Commission Lawsuit – Newsweek 
  • Zillow, Redfin, and other real estate stocks sank after a big settlement to limit broker fees. The agreement with the National Association of Realtors tightens rules around commissions in the home buying process – Quartz
  • Home buying costs could fall in big US real estate group settlement – Reuters
  • US home sale fees set to fall after real estate group settles lawsuits. National Association of Realtors has agreed to pay $418mn in damages in a deal that sent brokerage shares lower – FT
  • The way Americans buy and sell homes is about to get turned on its head – CNN
  • Opinion: How to make sure the 6% home commission really does die – CNN
  • The Realtors’ Big Defeat. A settlement in the real estate industry is a case study of a central flaw in free-market economic theory. – New York Times 
  • Five Ways Buying and Selling a House Could Change. The National Association of Realtors has agreed to change its policies to settle several lawsuits brought by home sellers — a move that could reduce commissions. – New York Times
  • Realtors Reckon With a Seismic Shift to How They Get Paid. Some agents predict workarounds will protect their commissions, while others head for the exits – Wall Street Journal
  • A $418 Million Settlement Could Change U.S. Home Buying. But Who Benefits? – NPR
  • What Comes Next for the Housing Market? The Federal Reserve still expects to cut rates this year, and a change in selling practices could shake up home shopping. Here’s the outlook. – New York Times
  • Real estate agents face an overdue reckoning. From lower commissions to falling mortgage rates, purchasing property may become easier – FT
  • Could a major lawsuit against realtors mean lower home prices? What the National Association of Realtors settlement means for buyers and sellers. – Vox  

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Can Mortgage Rates Still Fall to 6%? The housing market depends on it – Home Economics
  • It’s Hard to Beat That 7% Mortgage Rate. These Charts Show Why. The usual workarounds for high borrowing rates aren’t helping buyers much – Wall Street Journal
  • U.S. Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – March 2024 – Freddie Mac
  • Private Equity Wants Your Credit Card Debt. And Car Loan. And Mortgage. The private-credit craze is spreading to asset-based lending and the American consumer – Wall Street Journal
  • The rent is too damn high. And Joe Biden knows it. The president has raised concerns in private and made a push in public. But his tool kit is limited. – Politico
  • “The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates” – Calculated Risk
  • Moderating Interest Rates, Pent-up Demand Push Single-Family Starts Higher – NAHB
  • Higher Mortgage Rate Forecast Leads to Decline in 2024 Home Sales Expectations. Recent Inflation Data Likely to Keep Mortgage Rates ‘Higher for Longer’ than Previously Forecast – Fannie Mae
  • Single Family Starts Up 35% Year-over-year in February; Multi-Family Starts Down Sharply. Housing Starts Increased to 1.521 million Annual Rate in February – Calculated Risk  
  • Singh’s Take: Housing Construction Ramps Up After January Slowdown. Economists say the rebound is mostly due to improved weather – Wall Street Journal
  • US single-family housing starts, permits near two-year highs – Reuters
  • Ten economic facts about rental housing – Brookings
  • DOJ escalates price-fixing probe on housing market. The investigation adds to the legal difficulties facing the housing sector and highlights an issue Biden hopes to push on the campaign trail. – Politico
  • Home Flipping Plummets Across U.S. in 2023 as Profits Slump Again – ATTOM

On the US—other developments:      

  • Hitting Home: Housing Affordability in the U.S. – Econofact
  • FACT SHEET: In Nevada, President Biden to Double Down on Plan to Lower Housing Costs and Increase Housing Supply for American Families – The White House  
  • A Big Step Toward a Fairer Housing Market – New York Times
  • Biden Suggests a Bigger Federal Role to Reduce Housing Cost. A new report focuses on the prolonged struggle to build affordable housing across America and suggests federal incentives to help. – New York Times
  • How a housing market puzzle helps explain the economy’s resilience – Axios
  • Why are so many voters frustrated by the US economy? It’s home prices. Going into this election year, the United States is slogging through a housing affordability crisis – Quartz
  • What is causing the growing divide in the US property market? While most homebuyers are still hobbled by high mortgage rates, sales of luxury homes are surging – FT
  • 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February 2024 – Calculated Risk
  • Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024 – Calculated Risk
  • ATTOM Ranks Best Counties for Buying Single-Family Rentals in 2024 – ATTOM
  • Housing Market Update: Listings Surge, Luring Some Buyers off the Fence, But Near-Record Housing Costs Price Others Out – Redfin
  • Regulatory Changes Expected to Increase Access to Financing for Manufactured Homes. Updates modernize Title I, the only federal program focused on safe, affordable home-only loans – Pew
  • Why Private Developers Are Rejecting Government Money for Affordable Housing. Complex in Los Angeles for formerly homeless costs less than half as much as buildings financed with public money – Wall Street Journal
  • Once America’s Hottest Housing Market, Austin Is Running in Reverse. Home prices have fallen more than anywhere in the U.S. – Wall Street Journal
  • Fed’s inflation fight will affect housing supply for decades, says Redfin CEO – Yahoo Finance
  • Three cheers for supply? Demand, on the other hand, is not helping US housing markets – FT
  • Biden starts making his affordable housing pitch on the trail. A trip to Nevada will be centered around increasing housing supply. – Politico
  • NAHB Releases What Home Buyers Really Want, Study Shows Buyers Want Smaller Homes – NAHB
  • Affordable Housing: Subsidies Raise Costs – Cato
  • America’s Magical Thinking About Housing. The city of Austin built a lot of homes. Now rent is falling, and some people seem to think that’s a bad thing. – The Atlantic

On China:

  • China’s home prices extend declines despite support measures – Reuters
  • China Home Price Slump Persists Even as Support Mounts. Drop in new-home prices shows ‘no signs of ebbing’: economist. Property crisis drags on as developer Vanke faces pressure – Bloomberg
  • China housing prices continued to slump in February. The NBS published its 70-city housing prices data, which showed primary and secondary market prices declining for the 9th and 10th consecutive months respectively – ING
  • China’s Real-Estate Market Just Set a Record—but Not a Good One. Sales are up, but homeowners are being forced to slash prices – Wall Street Journal

On other countries:  

  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong Housing Rebound Starts to Cool as Weekend Sales Fall – Bloomberg
  • [Slovak Republic] Rebuilding fiscal buffers, sustaining productivity growth and tackling housing challenges will help the Slovak Republic boost economic resilience and living standards – OECD
  • [United Kingdom] London Home Rents Surge at Record Pace to Over £2,000 a Month. Official figures underscore strain on younger generations. Supply constraints and rising population squeeze renters – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK Rental Market Index – hometrack
  • [United Kingdom] The end of landlords: the surprisingly simple solution to the UK housing crisis. Mass-scale housebuilding isn’t necessary – there is already enough housing stock. But we need to learn the wisdom of the last century when it comes to landlordism – The Guardian

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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