Housing View – January 5, 2024

Working papers and conferences:

  • Housing Speculation, GSEs, and Credit Market Spillovers – Philadelphia Fed
  • What Do We Learn from Mobile Phone Location Data about Mobility and Housing During Covid-19 – SSRN
  • Identifying the Effects of Financial and Housing Shocks on Economic Activity: A Medium-Run SVAR Perspective – SSRN
  • Employment Fluctuations, Real Estate Prices, and Property Taxes – SSRN
  • Government-Made House Price Bubbles? Austerity, Homeownership, Rental, and Credit Liberalization Policies and the “Irrational Exuberance” on Housing Markets – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Question #9 for 2024: What will happen with house prices in 2024? – Calculated Risk
  • The Decline and Fall of the Federal Home Loan Banks – Cato Institute
  • The Hidden Force Pushing Mortgage Rates Down. The differential between 30-year mortgage rates and benchmark Treasury yields has been shrinking for eight straight weeks – Wall Street Journal
  • Mortgage Rates Could Drop in 2024—But How Far? Hoping to buy a home in the new year? This is what you can expect for mortgage rates in 2024 – Wall Street Journal
  • Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year ? – Calculated Risk

On the US—other developments:    

  • Chill in the Housing Market Seeps Into Other Industries. The slowdown in the residential real estate market, a crucial cog in the American economy, is threatening sectors like home improvement and storage. – The New York Times
  • Long-Distance Movers Targeting Less Competitive, Less Expensive Housing Markets – Zillow
  • The Sad Irony of “Not In My Backyard” (NIMBY) – American Institute for Economic Research
  • When Will New York Solve Its Housing Crisis? Probably Not This Year. As the state’s legislative session gets underway, the politicians who could fix the problem face big hurdles. – New York Times
  • Twin Cities region meets ambitious housing goals for second year but has much work left to do. With fresh data from 2022, the Regional Housing Affordability Dashboard depicts trends in the Twin Cities regional housing market – Minneapolis Fed 
  • The Fed and the U.S. housing crunch – Politico
  • What is behind housing sentiment? – Finance Research Letters
  • How much will Residential investment change in 2024? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2024? – Calculated Risk
  • Zillow’s Chief Economist’s 2024 Housing Market Resolutions. Zillow Chief Economist Skylar Olsen shares her wish list for a healthier housing market in 2024 – Zillow

On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Australia’s property market faces fresh peaks and troughs with slowing prices and interest rates tipped to drop. Price trends are unlikely to be straightforward in 2024, even if the RBA’s next move is a rate reduction – The Guardian
  • [Australia] Australian Home-Price Growth Slows Further as Sydney Cools. Cost of living pressures are taking heat out of housing market. RBA rate cut in 2024 could help spur demand, CoreLogic says – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Toronto Home Sales Surge Most in Eight Months With Prices Falling. Borrowing costs have moved lower after late-year bond rally. Home prices in December were the lowest since March 2023 – Bloomberg
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong home prices to erode another 10% in 2024 as impact of expected interest-rate cuts will take time: Citigroup. ‘It will take time for interest-rate cuts to impact the Hong Kong economy,’ analyst says. The bank expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in July and reduce them by 1 per cent this year – South China Morning Post
  • [Ireland] House prices to stabilise in 2024 as second-hand market recovers – Daft.ie. Property values rose 3.4% last year with the average home on the market for €320,000 – The Irish Times
  • [Norway] Norway Home Prices Grow for Third Month as Rate Peak Reached. Seasonally adjusted prices rose 0.2% on month in December. Market is forecast to pick up pace after first quarter – Bloomberg
  • [Spain] Sweden La vivienda en 2024: comprar y alquilar será más caro, pero las hipotecas darán un respiro. El sector no espera una gran crisis que provoque caídas generalizadas en los precios, aunque en segunda mano será posible encontrar algunas rebajas moderadas. Los endeudados verán cierto alivio en las letras mensuales – El Pais
  • [Singapore] Singapore Home Prices Rise 2.7% in Fourth Quarter on Demand. Private residential prices climb for second straight quarter. Prices increased 6.7% for the whole year on local demand – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK Mortgage Approvals, Consumer Credit Rise More Than Forecast – Bloomberg

Posted by at 10:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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