The Unassuming Economist

Working papers and conferences:

• Policies to address a changing rental housing market on November 3 – Brookings
• From Deceit to Default: Dishonest Borrowers and Their Effect on Mortgage Markets – Philadelphia Fed
• Housing bubble scars – Norges Bank
• Growth, Housing and Global Imbalances – International Economic Review
• Good Jobs, Good Tenants? Field Evidence of Racial and Gender Discrimination in the UK’s Housing Market – SSRN
• Location, Housing and Employment Opportunities. Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial with Vulnerable Youth in France – SSRN
• Does Space Matter? The Case of the Housing Expenditure Cap – SSRN
• Convergence in House Price Cycles across the US: Recent Developments and the Impact of Covid – SSRN
• The Aftermath of Credit Booms: Evidence from Credit Ceiling Removals – SSRN
• Analysis of House Price Bubbles in G7 Countries：All Quiet on the Western Front? – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Here’s What 8% Mortgage Rates Will Do to the Housing Market. What happens if rates stay higher for longer? – Bloomberg
• Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – October 2023 – Freddie Mac
• The US Housing Market Is Now Completely Broken. New construction was the sector’s only bright spot. Mortgage rates near 8% have wrecked homebuilder sentiment and buyer appetite. – Bloomberg
• Housing Prices Are High — and Potentially Illusory. A look at the latest US housing statistics leaves a far less than positive feeling. Plus, a tech manifesto from a legendary venture capitalist falls flat. – Bloomberg
• Housing Demand Caught Between High Rates & Demographics – NAHB
• September 2023 Rental Report: Rent Prices Fall for Fifth Consecutive Month Amid Strong Demand for Affordable Units – Realtor.com
• Thanks to Big Data, Landlords Know How to Squeeze the Most Out of Renters. Two firms face allegations that rent-pricing systems facilitate collusion among some big apartment owners – Wall Street Journal
• There’s Never Been a Worse Time to Buy Instead of Rent. It is now 52% more expensive to buy a home than to rent one because of climbing mortgage rates – Wall Street Journal
• Whither Home Prices? – American Action Forum

On the US—other developments:    

• Housing’s Other Threat to the Economy. Residential real estate has probably been boosting growth—but also hurting the economy as a whole – Wall Street Journal
• Cities try every tool to fix the housing crisis except what works – Washington Post
• ‘We’re in a housing desert’: a month in, is New York’s Airbnb crackdown working? – The Guardian
• New Listings and Pending Sales Ticked Up in September, But Deals Fell Through at Highest Rate in Almost a Year – Redfin 
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in September – Calculated Risk
• Fall 2023 Wall Street Journal/Realtor.com Emerging Housing Markets Index – Realtor.com
• Bargain Hunters, Rejoice: Top 20 Emerging Housing Markets Deliver on Affordability This Fall – Realtor.com
• Lack of Resales Boost New Home Sales in September – NAHB
• All-Cash Share of New Home Sales Climbs in Q3 – NAHB

On China:

• China’s Property Crisis Is Upending Tens of Thousands of Lives. Default is all but official at one of China’s largest developers. That’s intensifying the pain for struggling homebuyers, workers and investors, just when the economy most needs a boost. – Bloomberg
• China property market shows little signs of revival despite stimulus – Reuters
• China’s Strong GDP Report Shows Housing Remains a Big Problem. Retail sales figures beat expectations, jobless rate falls. Property is ‘main concern’ into next year, Macquarie says – Bloomberg
• How China’s property crisis has unfolded, from Evergrande to Country Garden. Thousands of unfinished homes and a swath of debt restructurings show the turmoil among developers – FT

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Near-record house prices can’t disguise a broken market. With house prices on pace to set new all-time highs, Australia’s affordability crisis is deepening. NAB chief executive Ross McEwan says a key solution will underpin urgent action. – Financial Review
• [Australia] Rising listings, poor affordability slash house price growth – Financial Review
• [Canada] Bank of Canada says it is not seeing the decline in house prices it had expected– Globe and Mail
• [Canada] Fall update will include policies to boost housing supply, federal ministers say – Globe and Mail
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong Existing-Home Prices Drop to Six-Year Low – Bloomberg
• [Hong Kong] Empty Homes Are Forcing Hong Kong Developers to Cut Home Prices. Vacant new properties at highest number in two decades. New home sales to drop to second lowest in almost a decade – Bloomberg
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong developer declares end of ‘golden era’ for housing profits. Chinachem’s chief executive says the government is taking more control of the market – FT
• [Ireland] Irish House Prices Hit Slowest Rate in Three Years on High Rates – Bloomberg
• [Ireland] House prices in Dublin now falling by almost 2%. Latest official figures point to a further slowdown in the State’s property market on the back of rising borrowing costs – The Irish Times
• [United Kingdom] Another mortgage gimmick won’t help the housing market. The UK political juggling act of keeping prices high and promising affordability is increasingly unsustainable – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices will not stop falling until 2025, Lloyds predicts. Britain’s biggest mortgage lender forecasts 5% drop over this year and another 2.4% decline in 2024 – The Guardian
• [Vietnam] Vietnam’s real estate woes: how much worse can they get? – Reuters

On cross-country:

• Global Residential Real Estate Market Report Q2 2023 – Global Property Guide
• The Housing Market Where Renters Can Make a Fortune – Bloomberg
• As China Battles Falling Home Prices, the U.S. Faces a Worsening Housing Shortage – Council on Foreign Relations

Working papers and conferences:

• Institutional Housing Investors and the Great Recession – Philadelphia Fed
• Social Capital and Mortgages – Philadelphia Fed
• Bringing Household Finance Back In: House Prices and the Missing Macroeconomics of Comparative Political Economy – Sage Journals
• Housing Speculation, GSEs, and Credit Market Spillovers – SSRN
• Housing Affordability and Household Mobility – SSRN
• International Spillover Effects of External Shocks on House Prices – SSRN
• The intergenerational transmission of housing wealth – VoxEU   
• Does Space Matter? The Case of the Housing Expenditure Cap – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Preliminary 2024 Housing Forecasts. 6%+ Mortgage Rates, House Price Increases, Multi-family Starts Down Sharply – Calculated Risk
• Home Sales on Track for Slowest Year Since Housing Bust. Residential real-estate market hindered by mortgage rates, limited inventory – Wall Street Journal
• Mapping Home Price Changes – New York Fed
• Fed’s Harker says high interest rates closing off housing for new buyers – Reuters
• Single-Family Starts Post Unexpected Gain in September as High Interest Rates Persist – NAHB
• NYC Homeowner Costs Are Rising at Three Times the Inflation Rate. Monthly fees and expenses for inspections, insurance and climate-friendly upgrades are squeezing residents of the city’s many co-op and condo buildings. – Bloomberg
• US single-family starts rise; soaring mortgage rates a challenge – Reuters

On the US—other developments:    

• Housing remains America’s biggest supply chain problem. Unwittingly exacerbated by the Fed, this inflation story isn’t going anywhere – FT
• White House Announces New Actions on Homeownership – The White House
• US Housing Affordability Worsens to New Record Low on High Rates. National Association of Realtors index fell to 91.7 in August. Families spent 27.3% of income on annual mortgage payment – Bloomberg
• Housing remains a puzzle in Fed’s inflation fight – Reuters
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in September. Sales in Florida were Up Year-over-year in September due to Hurricane Ian in 2022 – Calculated Risk
• Home Sales on Track for Slowest Year Since Housing Bust. Residential real-estate market hindered by mortgage rates, limited inventory – Wall Street Journal
• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in September – Calculated Risk
• US Homebuilder Sentiment Declines to Lowest Level in Nine Months – Bloomberg
• Home-Sales Report to Show How Much High Rates Squeezed Market. Economists estimate purchases of existing homes fell in September – Wall Street Journal
• Unknown pressures in America’s overly gentrified housing market. LTV will tear us apart again – FT

On China:

• China’s Home Prices Drop at Faster Pace in Blow to Sentiment. Housing slump persists despite recent policy stimulus measures. Property giant Country Garden has signaled likely default – Bloomberg
• China’s Home Prices Drop at Faster Pace in Blow to Sentiment. Housing slump persists despite recent policy stimulus measures. Property giant Country Garden has signaled likely default – Bloomberg
• Chinese developer Country Garden misses payment on dollar bond, say creditors. Heavily indebted company becomes latest casualty of China’s property crisis – FT
• IMF says China property slowdown will weigh on Asia’s growth – Reuters
• China Bet It All on Real Estate. Now Its Economy Is Paying the Price. After relying on a borrow-to-build model for decades, Beijing must make difficult choices about the country’s housing market and economic future. – New York Times
• China Property Bonds Looked Cheap at 20 Cents on the Dollar. They Weren’t. Distressed-debt funds lost big after betting on a turnaround in the sector – Wall Street Journal
• IMF Warns of Spillover Risks From China’s Property Sector Slump – Bloomberg
• Property crisis pushes China to increase financial risk monitoring, asset disposal for troubled small banks. Commercial banks and rural financial institutions will be helped to dispose of bad assets and loans, while also having their capital replenished through multiple channels. Beijing is striving to establish a high-quality inclusive financial system over the next five years to increase funding for small market entities and agricultural sectors – South China Morning Post

On other countries:  

• [Australia] House prices poised to rise this year, and in 2024: survey – Financial Review
• [Australia] Australia’s House Prices Set for First Rebound During Rate Hikes – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Canada targets Airbnb, others to ease rental shortage – Reuters
• [Canada] Airbnb Faces New Curbs in Canada After Sharp Rise in Rents. Rental platforms ‘mean fewer homes for Canadians’: Freeland. Comments follow British Columbia plan on short-term rentals – Bloomberg
• [Germany] German Housing Crisis Deepens on Record Building Cancellations. Monthly Ifo survey shows deteriorating conditons for builders. Business confidence also slumps to all-time low in September – Bloomberg
• [Ireland] Ireland’s house prices, earnings and favourite cars, from the 1970s to today in six charts. Central Statistics Office releases data on Ireland’s 50 year membership of the EU – The Irish Times
• [Singapore] Singapore’s $20 Million Shophouses Are Blazing-Hot Properties. In the island nation’s real estate market, the distinctive two- to three-story row buildings can fetch $4,000 a square foot. – Bloomberg
• [Tokyo] Hunt for trophy apartments in Tokyo sends prices sky high. Newly minted millionaires vie with foreign buyers for scarce property – FT
• [United Kingdom] Labour’s housing plans will not solve the affordability crisis. Martin Walsh, Michael Ball and John Worrall respond to the party’s proposals to address housing issues in the country – The Guardian 
• [United Kingdom] Cash buyers keep top end of London’s property market ‘robust’. Sales worth £5mn or more almost 70% higher than pre-pandemic average, according to Savills – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK Home Sellers Are Waking Up to Reality. The stalemate between buyers and sellers is slowly moving in the right direction. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Rishi Sunak to push ahead with plan to end no-fault evictions in England. Prime minister gives go-ahead despite lengthy row within Conservative party over the measure – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise by smallest annual rate since 2012 – ONS – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Britain’s Housing Crisis: What Went Wrong? review – the most nakedly furious documentary of the year – The Guardian

On cross-country:

• BOE Sees Global House Prices Falling, Warns on China Risks – Bloomberg
• Why Singapore, Seoul and Japan are defying the real estate downturn. Singapore’s housing market and South Korea’s grade A office market are outperforming most others. Japan, meanwhile, is benefiting from efforts to relocate supply chains away from China – South China Morning Post

Working papers and conferences:

• Institutional Housing Investors and the Great Recession – Philadelphia Fed
• The Environmental Cost of Easy Credit: The Housing Channel – NBER
• The environmental burden of aesthetic norms – VoxEU
• Removing Conflict of Interest for Agents of Homebuyers – Richmond Fed

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Housing Groups, Mortgage Lenders Urge Powell to Halt Fed Hikes. Homebuilders, realtors and mortgage bankers unite in letter. Lobby groups say rate volatility hurting housing affordability – Bloomberg
• Mortgage Activity Increases Despite Rise in Interest Rates – NAHB
• Is the Housing Market Overvalued? What Buyers Need To Know – Realtor.com
• US housing: recharged. Goldman thinks price growth is going to reaccelerate – FT
• US Housing market crash turns not-so-sweet 16 – Goldman Sachs  

On the US—other developments:    

• Six Things You Need to Know About Housing Post-Covid-19. A Shifting Outlook – Dallas Fed
• The Californization of the Texas Housing Market. Migration from more expensive states has pushed home prices out of reach for many locals; ‘a very hard market for first-time buyers’ – Wall Street Journal
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October – Calculated Risk
• Characteristics of Recent Home Buyers – NAHB
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September. Early Reporting Markets suggest Sales at New Cycle Low in September – Calculated Risk
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September. Early Reporting Markets suggest Sales at New Cycle Low in September – Calculated Risk
• How can America fix its housing shortage? – The Economist
• September 2023 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• Herbert Hoover’s Department of Commerce and the Origins of US Housing Data – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies

On China:

• Amid turmoil in China’s property market, the public seethes. Anger is turning against the tycoons who profited from a house-building boom – The Economist
• China property: Country Garden default would blight market outlook. Impact threatens to be much larger than Evergrande fallout, with shockwaves rippling across Asia – FT
• Why a property crash could be good for China. The wealth redistribution would benefit ordinary families, boost consumption and rebalance the economy. China needs more sustainable economic growth and, crucially, it has the tools to minimise the short-term pain needed to achieve this – South China Morning Post

On other countries:  

• [Australia] House price rally not sustainable, warn economists – Financial Review
• [Australia] Australia under more mortgage stress than any other nation, IMF says. Cost of repaying loans is 15% of income and likely to be higher after this year’s rate hikes, as fund predicts GDP growth of 1.2% next year – The Guardian
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong developers hit by Federal Reserve’s ‘higher for longer’ interest rates. Five of the territory’s biggest real estate companies have lost $20bn in market value this year – FT  
• [Singapore] Singapore Is Fighting Rising Seas to Save $50 Billion in Real Estate. The island nation won’t cede “an inch of land,” a government official pledges. – Bloomberg
• [Sweden] Swedish Households’ Optimism on Housing Prices Is Fading – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall for sixth consecutive month. House prices down 0.4% between August and September – FT
• [United Kingdom] Building firms tell Sunak undoing green policies will hit housing investment. More than 100 leading companies urge PM to reinstate net zero measures to avoid hardship for many – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices drop 13.4% from peak in real terms. Inflation masks extent of decline from March 2022 record level – FT
• [United Kingdom] More surveyors report falling UK house prices than at any time since 2009. Rics survey shows demand for homes and sales volumes also contracted in September – FT

On cross-country:

• Where are European mortgage holders most exposed to higher rates? Borrower preferences and lender offerings differ dramatically even within the single currency area – FT
• Millennials and boomers are competing for homes. Guess who’s winning? Rising prices, high rates and demographics are reversing millennial gains – FT 
• House prices and rents increased in Q2 2023 – European Commission
• European house prices log first annual fall since 2014. Decline comes despite slight rebound in prices over the second quarter – FT
• Q2 house prices mark first annual decrease since 2014 – Eurostat – Reuters 

Working papers and conferences:

• Comparing Measures of Rental Prices Can Inform Monetary Policy – Kansas City Fed
• Discovery of Unregulated Contaminants in Drinking Water: Evidence from PFAS and Housing Prices – NBER
• The Price of Short-Term Housing: A Study of Airbnb on 26 Regions in the United States – SSRN
• Does Green Infrastructure Affect Housing Prices Via Extreme Heat and Air Pollution Mitigation? A Focus on Green and Climate Gentrification in Los Angeles County, 2000-2021 – SSRN  

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Wall Street Thinks America’s Homes Are Overvalued. As prices paid for the average single-family property hit record highs, big investors are taking a pass – Bloomberg
• US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Tops 7.5% for First Time Since 2000. Higher rate sends MBA home-purchase index to lowest since 1995. 30-year fixed rate has climbed 32 basis points in four weeks – Bloomberg
• Mortgage Rates in US Rise to Highest in More Than Two Decades. Average on a 30-year, fixed loan climbed for a third week. Buyers are waiting with prices also high, economist says – Bloomberg
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in August to New High; Up 4.0% Year-over-year. Austin Prices Down 10.9% from Peak Seasonally Adjusted – Calculated Risk
• ICE (Black Knight) Mortgage Monitor: “Home Prices Set Yet Another Record in August” – Calculated Risk
• FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores – Calculated Risk
• Strong Housing Has Fed Looking Elsewhere to Slow Economy, Barkin Suggests. Why the US economy has remained resilient to higher rates. – Bloomberg

On the US—other developments:    

• Is the Real Estate Market Going To Crash? – Wharton
• Passing pro-housing legislation is only the first step in making housing more affordable – Brookings
• A Glimmer of Hope in a Dysfunctional Housing Market – Washington Post
• A Government Shutdown Would Disrupt the Housing Market in These Surprising (and Painful) Ways – Realtor.com
• August 2023 Hottest Housing Markets – Realtor.com

On China:

• China Comes Under Growing Pressure to Fix the Country’s Housing Market. Economists and investors urge Beijing to take forceful steps as founder of developer Evergrande faces assets-transfer probe – Wall Street Journal
• Does China’s Property Bust Make a Financial Crisis Inevitable? Perhaps not—if Beijing plays its cards right. But serious damage to the nation’s prospects is still likely. A look at the problem in five charts. – Wall Street Journal
• How China’s Property Crisis Is Testing Its Too-Big-to-Fail Banks. Banks hold enormous amounts of real estate debt, and regulators are nervous. But a fast-moving crisis is unlikely because the government has extensive control of the system. – New York Times

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Australian Home Prices Stay Strong as RBA Seen Standing Pat. Sydney, Melbourne middle market posting highest growth rate. Reserve Bank expected to keep key rate on hold on Tuesday – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Australian Home Prices Stay Strong as RBA Seen Standing Pat. Sydney, Melbourne middle market posting highest growth rate. Reserve Bank expected to keep key rate on hold on Tuesday – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Policy changes will boost rental stock, but only years from now. Ottawa last week raised the limit for the Canada Mortgage Bonds from $40B to a maximum of $60B – Yahoo Finance
• [Canada] Canada Housing Body Says It Will Take C$1 Trillion to Meet Goals – Bloomberg
• [Finland] Finnish Housing Prices to Pick Up Next Year, Nordea Forecasts. Finnish home prices to rise 1% in 2024 after 6% drop in 2023. Nordea Bank expects home price declines to end this quarter – Bloomberg
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong Banks Struggle to Sell Foreclosed Homes Even at 20% Discount. Property firms are seeing significant rise in seized homes. Higher interest rates, weak economy contribute to the increase – Bloomberg
• [Ireland] House prices edge higher as available secondhand properties tumble – Daft.ie. Secondhand market remains ‘tight’ and has not recovered from the pandemic – The Irish Times
• [Ireland] House prices soaring outside Dublin as remote workers spread their wings – The Sunday Times
• [Ireland] Asking prices for Irish homes pick up again – surveys – Reuters
• [Japan] Surging Tokyo property prices squeeze out young professionals – Reuters
• [New Zealand] NZ housing market gives first-time buyers a whiff of opportunity – Financial Review 
• [New Zealand] New Zealand House-Price Slump May Be Over, CoreLogic Says. Prices steady in September after 17 straight monthly declines. ‘Housing market confidence seems to have turned a corner’ – Bloomberg
• [Portugal] Portugal to scrap ‘unjust’ tax breaks for foreign residents. Low-tax scheme launched during financial crisis has stoked housing inflation that has drawn protests across country – The Guardian
• [Portugal] Real Estate Investors Say Portugal Needs More Homes, Not Fewer Tax Breaks for Foreigners. Portugal plans to end its non-habitual resident regime in 2024. Premier Costa says regime is unfair, helps inflate home prices – Bloomberg
• [Singapore] Singapore Property Prices Rose Marginally in Third Quarter — Update. Sale transaction volumes slid about 15% on a quarterly basis and by about 26% from the previous year – Wall Street Journal
• [Spain] The Effect of Second-Generation Rent Controls: New Evidence from Catalonia – San Francisco Fed
• [Sweden] Swedish Home Prices Fall Again in September, Down 13% From Peak – Bloomberg
• [Thailand] Thailand’s Real Estate Boom: The Impact of Chinese Investment. A boom in Chinese investment has pushed up property prices. Does the new Thai government have a plan to manage the impact? – The Diplomat
• [United Kingdom] The What Can the UK Learn From Germany’s Housing Slump? There’s a common factor at work here, and it has nothing to do with physical supply and demand. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK 5-Year Mortgage Rate Drops Below 6% for First Time Since July. Key UK mortgage rates are slowly retreating from 14-year highs. Softer inflation, BOE pause are helping cool financing costs – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK’s Mortgage Crunch Is Easing as House Prices Stay Put. House prices unchanged following two months of declines. Slump eases in London’s market while sales of flats hold up – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices drop 5.3% with falls in every region, says Nationwide. High interest rates blamed for year-on-year fall with price of average home £14,500 lower than September 2022. – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Home buyers choosing smaller properties and 35-year mortgages – BBC