Housing View – October 27, 2023

Working papers and conferences:

  • Policies to address a changing rental housing market on November 3 – Brookings
  • From Deceit to Default: Dishonest Borrowers and Their Effect on Mortgage Markets – Philadelphia Fed
  • Housing bubble scars – Norges Bank
  • Growth, Housing and Global Imbalances – International Economic Review
  • Good Jobs, Good Tenants? Field Evidence of Racial and Gender Discrimination in the UK’s Housing Market – SSRN
  • Location, Housing and Employment Opportunities. Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial with Vulnerable Youth in France – SSRN
  • Does Space Matter? The Case of the Housing Expenditure Cap – SSRN
  • Convergence in House Price Cycles across the US: Recent Developments and the Impact of Covid – SSRN
  • The Aftermath of Credit Booms: Evidence from Credit Ceiling Removals – SSRN
  • Analysis of House Price Bubbles in G7 Countries:All Quiet on the Western Front? – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Here’s What 8% Mortgage Rates Will Do to the Housing Market. What happens if rates stay higher for longer? – Bloomberg
  • Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – October 2023 – Freddie Mac
  • The US Housing Market Is Now Completely Broken. New construction was the sector’s only bright spot. Mortgage rates near 8% have wrecked homebuilder sentiment and buyer appetite. – Bloomberg
  • Housing Prices Are High — and Potentially Illusory. A look at the latest US housing statistics leaves a far less than positive feeling. Plus, a tech manifesto from a legendary venture capitalist falls flat. – Bloomberg
  • Housing Demand Caught Between High Rates & Demographics – NAHB
  • September 2023 Rental Report: Rent Prices Fall for Fifth Consecutive Month Amid Strong Demand for Affordable Units – Realtor.com
  • Thanks to Big Data, Landlords Know How to Squeeze the Most Out of Renters. Two firms face allegations that rent-pricing systems facilitate collusion among some big apartment owners – Wall Street Journal
  • There’s Never Been a Worse Time to Buy Instead of Rent. It is now 52% more expensive to buy a home than to rent one because of climbing mortgage rates – Wall Street Journal
  • Whither Home Prices? – American Action Forum

On the US—other developments:    

  • Housing’s Other Threat to the Economy. Residential real estate has probably been boosting growth—but also hurting the economy as a whole – Wall Street Journal
  • Cities try every tool to fix the housing crisis except what works – Washington Post
  • ‘We’re in a housing desert’: a month in, is New York’s Airbnb crackdown working? – The Guardian
  • New Listings and Pending Sales Ticked Up in September, But Deals Fell Through at Highest Rate in Almost a Year – Redfin 
  • Final Look at Local Housing Markets in September – Calculated Risk
  • Fall 2023 Wall Street Journal/Realtor.com Emerging Housing Markets Index – Realtor.com
  • Bargain Hunters, Rejoice: Top 20 Emerging Housing Markets Deliver on Affordability This Fall – Realtor.com
  • Lack of Resales Boost New Home Sales in September – NAHB
  • All-Cash Share of New Home Sales Climbs in Q3 – NAHB

On China:

  • China’s Property Crisis Is Upending Tens of Thousands of Lives. Default is all but official at one of China’s largest developers. That’s intensifying the pain for struggling homebuyers, workers and investors, just when the economy most needs a boost. – Bloomberg
  • China property market shows little signs of revival despite stimulus – Reuters
  • China’s Strong GDP Report Shows Housing Remains a Big Problem. Retail sales figures beat expectations, jobless rate falls. Property is ‘main concern’ into next year, Macquarie says – Bloomberg
  • How China’s property crisis has unfolded, from Evergrande to Country Garden. Thousands of unfinished homes and a swath of debt restructurings show the turmoil among developers – FT

On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Near-record house prices can’t disguise a broken market. With house prices on pace to set new all-time highs, Australia’s affordability crisis is deepening. NAB chief executive Ross McEwan says a key solution will underpin urgent action. – Financial Review
  • [Australia] Rising listings, poor affordability slash house price growth – Financial Review
  • [Canada] Bank of Canada says it is not seeing the decline in house prices it had expected– Globe and Mail
  • [Canada] Fall update will include policies to boost housing supply, federal ministers say – Globe and Mail
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong Existing-Home Prices Drop to Six-Year Low – Bloomberg
  • [Hong Kong] Empty Homes Are Forcing Hong Kong Developers to Cut Home Prices. Vacant new properties at highest number in two decades. New home sales to drop to second lowest in almost a decade – Bloomberg
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong developer declares end of ‘golden era’ for housing profits. Chinachem’s chief executive says the government is taking more control of the market – FT
  • [Ireland] Irish House Prices Hit Slowest Rate in Three Years on High Rates – Bloomberg
  • [Ireland] House prices in Dublin now falling by almost 2%. Latest official figures point to a further slowdown in the State’s property market on the back of rising borrowing costs – The Irish Times
  • [United Kingdom] Another mortgage gimmick won’t help the housing market. The UK political juggling act of keeping prices high and promising affordability is increasingly unsustainable – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices will not stop falling until 2025, Lloyds predicts. Britain’s biggest mortgage lender forecasts 5% drop over this year and another 2.4% decline in 2024 – The Guardian
  • [Vietnam] Vietnam’s real estate woes: how much worse can they get? – Reuters

Posted by at 9:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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