Housing View – October 6, 2023

On cross-country:

  • Where are European mortgage holders most exposed to higher rates? Borrower preferences and lender offerings differ dramatically even within the single currency area – FT
  • Millennials and boomers are competing for homes. Guess who’s winning? Rising prices, high rates and demographics are reversing millennial gains – FT 
  • House prices and rents increased in Q2 2023 – European Commission
  • European house prices log first annual fall since 2014. Decline comes despite slight rebound in prices over the second quarter – FT
  • Q2 house prices mark first annual decrease since 2014 – Eurostat – Reuters 

Working papers and conferences:

  • Comparing Measures of Rental Prices Can Inform Monetary Policy – Kansas City Fed
  • Discovery of Unregulated Contaminants in Drinking Water: Evidence from PFAS and Housing Prices – NBER
  • The Price of Short-Term Housing: A Study of Airbnb on 26 Regions in the United States – SSRN
  • Does Green Infrastructure Affect Housing Prices Via Extreme Heat and Air Pollution Mitigation? A Focus on Green and Climate Gentrification in Los Angeles County, 2000-2021 – SSRN  

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Wall Street Thinks America’s Homes Are Overvalued. As prices paid for the average single-family property hit record highs, big investors are taking a pass – Bloomberg
  • US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Tops 7.5% for First Time Since 2000. Higher rate sends MBA home-purchase index to lowest since 1995. 30-year fixed rate has climbed 32 basis points in four weeks – Bloomberg
  • Mortgage Rates in US Rise to Highest in More Than Two Decades. Average on a 30-year, fixed loan climbed for a third week. Buyers are waiting with prices also high, economist says – Bloomberg
  • Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in August to New High; Up 4.0% Year-over-year. Austin Prices Down 10.9% from Peak Seasonally Adjusted – Calculated Risk
  • ICE (Black Knight) Mortgage Monitor: “Home Prices Set Yet Another Record in August” – Calculated Risk
  • FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores – Calculated Risk
  • Strong Housing Has Fed Looking Elsewhere to Slow Economy, Barkin Suggests. Why the US economy has remained resilient to higher rates. – Bloomberg

On the US—other developments:    

  • Is the Real Estate Market Going To Crash? – Wharton
  • Passing pro-housing legislation is only the first step in making housing more affordable – Brookings
  • A Glimmer of Hope in a Dysfunctional Housing Market – Washington Post
  • A Government Shutdown Would Disrupt the Housing Market in These Surprising (and Painful) Ways – Realtor.com
  • August 2023 Hottest Housing Markets – Realtor.com

On China:

  • China Comes Under Growing Pressure to Fix the Country’s Housing Market. Economists and investors urge Beijing to take forceful steps as founder of developer Evergrande faces assets-transfer probe – Wall Street Journal
  • Does China’s Property Bust Make a Financial Crisis Inevitable? Perhaps not—if Beijing plays its cards right. But serious damage to the nation’s prospects is still likely. A look at the problem in five charts. – Wall Street Journal
  • How China’s Property Crisis Is Testing Its Too-Big-to-Fail Banks. Banks hold enormous amounts of real estate debt, and regulators are nervous. But a fast-moving crisis is unlikely because the government has extensive control of the system. – New York Times

On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Australian Home Prices Stay Strong as RBA Seen Standing Pat. Sydney, Melbourne middle market posting highest growth rate. Reserve Bank expected to keep key rate on hold on Tuesday – Bloomberg
  • [Australia] Australian Home Prices Stay Strong as RBA Seen Standing Pat. Sydney, Melbourne middle market posting highest growth rate. Reserve Bank expected to keep key rate on hold on Tuesday – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Policy changes will boost rental stock, but only years from now. Ottawa last week raised the limit for the Canada Mortgage Bonds from $40B to a maximum of $60B – Yahoo Finance
  • [Canada] Canada Housing Body Says It Will Take C$1 Trillion to Meet Goals – Bloomberg
  • [Finland] Finnish Housing Prices to Pick Up Next Year, Nordea Forecasts. Finnish home prices to rise 1% in 2024 after 6% drop in 2023. Nordea Bank expects home price declines to end this quarter – Bloomberg
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong Banks Struggle to Sell Foreclosed Homes Even at 20% Discount. Property firms are seeing significant rise in seized homes. Higher interest rates, weak economy contribute to the increase – Bloomberg
  • [Ireland] House prices edge higher as available secondhand properties tumble – Daft.ie. Secondhand market remains ‘tight’ and has not recovered from the pandemic – The Irish Times
  • [Ireland] House prices soaring outside Dublin as remote workers spread their wings – The Sunday Times
  • [Ireland] Asking prices for Irish homes pick up again – surveys – Reuters
  • [Japan] Surging Tokyo property prices squeeze out young professionals – Reuters
  • [New Zealand] NZ housing market gives first-time buyers a whiff of opportunity – Financial Review 
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand House-Price Slump May Be Over, CoreLogic Says. Prices steady in September after 17 straight monthly declines. ‘Housing market confidence seems to have turned a corner’ – Bloomberg
  • [Portugal] Portugal to scrap ‘unjust’ tax breaks for foreign residents. Low-tax scheme launched during financial crisis has stoked housing inflation that has drawn protests across country – The Guardian
  • [Portugal] Real Estate Investors Say Portugal Needs More Homes, Not Fewer Tax Breaks for Foreigners. Portugal plans to end its non-habitual resident regime in 2024. Premier Costa says regime is unfair, helps inflate home prices – Bloomberg
  • [Singapore] Singapore Property Prices Rose Marginally in Third Quarter — Update. Sale transaction volumes slid about 15% on a quarterly basis and by about 26% from the previous year – Wall Street Journal
  • [Spain] The Effect of Second-Generation Rent Controls: New Evidence from Catalonia – San Francisco Fed
  • [Sweden] Swedish Home Prices Fall Again in September, Down 13% From Peak – Bloomberg
  • [Thailand] Thailand’s Real Estate Boom: The Impact of Chinese Investment. A boom in Chinese investment has pushed up property prices. Does the new Thai government have a plan to manage the impact? – The Diplomat
  • [United Kingdom] The What Can the UK Learn From Germany’s Housing Slump? There’s a common factor at work here, and it has nothing to do with physical supply and demand. – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK 5-Year Mortgage Rate Drops Below 6% for First Time Since July. Key UK mortgage rates are slowly retreating from 14-year highs. Softer inflation, BOE pause are helping cool financing costs – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK’s Mortgage Crunch Is Easing as House Prices Stay Put. House prices unchanged following two months of declines. Slump eases in London’s market while sales of flats hold up – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices drop 5.3% with falls in every region, says Nationwide. High interest rates blamed for year-on-year fall with price of average home £14,500 lower than September 2022. – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] Home buyers choosing smaller properties and 35-year mortgages – BBC

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


Subscribe to: Posts