Housing View – October 20, 2023

On cross-country:


Working papers and conferences:

  • Institutional Housing Investors and the Great Recession – Philadelphia Fed
  • Social Capital and Mortgages – Philadelphia Fed
  • Bringing Household Finance Back In: House Prices and the Missing Macroeconomics of Comparative Political Economy – Sage Journals
  • Housing Speculation, GSEs, and Credit Market Spillovers – SSRN
  • Housing Affordability and Household Mobility – SSRN
  • International Spillover Effects of External Shocks on House Prices – SSRN
  • The intergenerational transmission of housing wealth – VoxEU   
  • Does Space Matter? The Case of the Housing Expenditure Cap – SSRN


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Preliminary 2024 Housing Forecasts. 6%+ Mortgage Rates, House Price Increases, Multi-family Starts Down Sharply – Calculated Risk
  • Home Sales on Track for Slowest Year Since Housing Bust. Residential real-estate market hindered by mortgage rates, limited inventory – Wall Street Journal
  • Mapping Home Price Changes – New York Fed
  • Fed’s Harker says high interest rates closing off housing for new buyers – Reuters
  • Single-Family Starts Post Unexpected Gain in September as High Interest Rates Persist – NAHB
  • NYC Homeowner Costs Are Rising at Three Times the Inflation Rate. Monthly fees and expenses for inspections, insurance and climate-friendly upgrades are squeezing residents of the city’s many co-op and condo buildings. – Bloomberg
  • US single-family starts rise; soaring mortgage rates a challenge – Reuters


On the US—other developments:    

  • Housing remains America’s biggest supply chain problem. Unwittingly exacerbated by the Fed, this inflation story isn’t going anywhere – FT
  • White House Announces New Actions on Homeownership – The White House
  • US Housing Affordability Worsens to New Record Low on High Rates. National Association of Realtors index fell to 91.7 in August. Families spent 27.3% of income on annual mortgage payment – Bloomberg
  • Housing remains a puzzle in Fed’s inflation fight – Reuters
  • 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in September. Sales in Florida were Up Year-over-year in September due to Hurricane Ian in 2022 – Calculated Risk
  • Home Sales on Track for Slowest Year Since Housing Bust. Residential real-estate market hindered by mortgage rates, limited inventory – Wall Street Journal
  • Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in September – Calculated Risk
  • US Homebuilder Sentiment Declines to Lowest Level in Nine Months – Bloomberg
  • Home-Sales Report to Show How Much High Rates Squeezed Market. Economists estimate purchases of existing homes fell in September – Wall Street Journal
  • Unknown pressures in America’s overly gentrified housing market. LTV will tear us apart again – FT


On China:

  • China’s Home Prices Drop at Faster Pace in Blow to Sentiment. Housing slump persists despite recent policy stimulus measures. Property giant Country Garden has signaled likely default – Bloomberg
  • China’s Home Prices Drop at Faster Pace in Blow to Sentiment. Housing slump persists despite recent policy stimulus measures. Property giant Country Garden has signaled likely default – Bloomberg
  • Chinese developer Country Garden misses payment on dollar bond, say creditors. Heavily indebted company becomes latest casualty of China’s property crisis – FT
  • IMF says China property slowdown will weigh on Asia’s growth – Reuters
  • China Bet It All on Real Estate. Now Its Economy Is Paying the Price. After relying on a borrow-to-build model for decades, Beijing must make difficult choices about the country’s housing market and economic future. – New York Times
  • China Property Bonds Looked Cheap at 20 Cents on the Dollar. They Weren’t. Distressed-debt funds lost big after betting on a turnaround in the sector – Wall Street Journal
  • IMF Warns of Spillover Risks From China’s Property Sector Slump – Bloomberg
  • Property crisis pushes China to increase financial risk monitoring, asset disposal for troubled small banks. Commercial banks and rural financial institutions will be helped to dispose of bad assets and loans, while also having their capital replenished through multiple channels. Beijing is striving to establish a high-quality inclusive financial system over the next five years to increase funding for small market entities and agricultural sectors – South China Morning Post


On other countries:  

  • [Australia] House prices poised to rise this year, and in 2024: survey – Financial Review
  • [Australia] Australia’s House Prices Set for First Rebound During Rate Hikes – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Canada targets Airbnb, others to ease rental shortage – Reuters
  • [Canada] Airbnb Faces New Curbs in Canada After Sharp Rise in Rents. Rental platforms ‘mean fewer homes for Canadians’: Freeland. Comments follow British Columbia plan on short-term rentals – Bloomberg
  • [Germany] German Housing Crisis Deepens on Record Building Cancellations. Monthly Ifo survey shows deteriorating conditons for builders. Business confidence also slumps to all-time low in September – Bloomberg
  • [Ireland] Ireland’s house prices, earnings and favourite cars, from the 1970s to today in six charts. Central Statistics Office releases data on Ireland’s 50 year membership of the EU – The Irish Times
  • [Singapore] Singapore’s $20 Million Shophouses Are Blazing-Hot Properties. In the island nation’s real estate market, the distinctive two- to three-story row buildings can fetch $4,000 a square foot. – Bloomberg
  • [Tokyo] Hunt for trophy apartments in Tokyo sends prices sky high. Newly minted millionaires vie with foreign buyers for scarce property – FT
  • [United Kingdom] Labour’s housing plans will not solve the affordability crisis. Martin Walsh, Michael Ball and John Worrall respond to the party’s proposals to address housing issues in the country – The Guardian 
  • [United Kingdom] Cash buyers keep top end of London’s property market ‘robust’. Sales worth £5mn or more almost 70% higher than pre-pandemic average, according to Savills – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK Home Sellers Are Waking Up to Reality. The stalemate between buyers and sellers is slowly moving in the right direction. – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Rishi Sunak to push ahead with plan to end no-fault evictions in England. Prime minister gives go-ahead despite lengthy row within Conservative party over the measure – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise by smallest annual rate since 2012 – ONS – Reuters
  • [United Kingdom] Britain’s Housing Crisis: What Went Wrong? review – the most nakedly furious documentary of the year – The Guardian

Posted by at 9:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

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