Inclusive Growth

Global Housing Watch

Forecasting Forum

Energy & Climate Change

Housing Market in Denmark

From the IMF’s latest report on Denmark:

“Credit to households and house price growth accelerated during the pandemic. Before the pandemic, household leverage was high. Credit growth stalled at the onset of the pandemic but strongly recovered in 2020H2, driven primarily by mortgage lending. Residential property prices rose sharply in 2020H2, particularly for summer-houses, likely partially influenced by a temporary increase in tax deductions for summerhouse owners (…).

Macrofinancial vulnerabilities due to high and increasing household leverage amid high house valuations warrant close monitoring. High debt, combined with illiquid assets (concentrated in real estate via housing and pension assets) exposes households to price and interest rate shocks that can impact their balance sheet asymmetrically and spillover to aggregate demand. Continued strong house price growth increases the likelihood of a revaluation that could harm highly-leveraged households, particularly those who purchased in overvalued urban areas and low-income households. These vulnerabilities are compounded by the still large proportion of variable-rate and interest-only mortgages in the system (…). Moreover, MCIs and pension and insurance companies are highly interconnected and dependent on the health of the housing sector.

Recent developments warrant tightening prudential tools while deploying coordinated tax and housing supply policies.

–Macroprudential policy. The authorities should shift focus toward income-based measures, including tightening debt-to-income (DTI), LTI, and debt-service-to-income caps would help address high leverage and encourage faster amortization, as loan-to-value (LTV) constraints are less binding in the current environment with high house price growth. The authorities should tighten DTI restrictions for all loans, irrespective of their LTV ratios. DTI caps could be differentiated based on borrowers’ riskiness. Highly-leveraged households should be subject to mandatory amortization, regardless of maturity- and rate-type (SIP 2018). Tighter limits on income-based measures for interest-only and floating-rate mortgages or higher minimum down-payment requirements should also be considered. The proposed risk-based prudential framework could be combined with the macroprudential setup to facilitate calibration of these measures, especially for lower risk groups, e.g., first-time home buyers.

–Tax policy. The tax treatment of owner-occupied housing remains favorable relative to other savings and compared to most OECD countries. Taking advantage of the current low rate environment, MID should be reduced in a manner consistent with the overall tax framework.48 Staff recommend prioritizing reforms to better link property taxes to current market valuations. Balancing tax incentives for pension contributions could release resources for larger down-payments.

–Housing supply. Rent controls in Denmark are high relative to peer countries and should be reduced to stimulate the rental market, while protecting the interests of the most vulnerable. Review of urban area restrictions on the size of new apartments should continue to improve demand-supply mismatches. Streamlined zoning and planning procedures across municipalities could increase supply, thereby alleviating price pressures.”

From the IMF’s latest report on Denmark:

“Credit to households and house price growth accelerated during the pandemic. Before the pandemic, household leverage was high. Credit growth stalled at the onset of the pandemic but strongly recovered in 2020H2, driven primarily by mortgage lending. Residential property prices rose sharply in 2020H2, particularly for summer-houses, likely partially influenced by a temporary increase in tax deductions for summerhouse owners (…).

Macrofinancial vulnerabilities due to high and increasing household leverage amid high house valuations warrant close monitoring.

Read the full article…

Posted by at 4:05 PM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

U.S. Housing Markets and the COVID-19 Crisis: EconoFact

“From EconoFact: The perception of falling prices of single-family homes and record levels of unemployment raise the specter of rising levels of mortgage defaults. Mortgage defaults in the wake of the economic and financial collapse in the Fall of 2008 contributed to the tepid economic recovery from that crisis, as well as personal hardship for those who lost their houses; by 2010, approximately 11.5 percent of single-family residential mortgages were delinquent and more than 2 percent were in foreclosure. There are concerns that similar developments now could derail economic recovery. But drawing parallels between 2020 and 2008 is problematic because conditions differ substantially across the two periods in the run-up to the crisis and in its first few months.” See full brief by Jeff Zabel.

 

 

“From EconoFact: The perception of falling prices of single-family homes and record levels of unemployment raise the specter of rising levels of mortgage defaults. Mortgage defaults in the wake of the economic and financial collapse in the Fall of 2008 contributed to the tepid economic recovery from that crisis, as well as personal hardship for those who lost their houses; by 2010, approximately 11.5 percent of single-family residential mortgages were delinquent and more than 2 percent were in foreclosure.

Read the full article…

Posted by at 9:55 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

COVID-19 will raise inequality if past pandemics are a guide

Will this time be different? https://voxeu.org/article/covid-19-will-raise-inequality-if-past-pandemics-are-guide.  See presentation, which also discusses other factors that could affect the evolution of inequality.

 

Will this time be different? https://voxeu.org/article/covid-19-will-raise-inequality-if-past-pandemics-are-guide.  See presentation, which also discusses other factors that could affect the evolution of inequality.

 

Read the full article…

Posted by at 9:30 AM

Labels: Inclusive Growth

Lockdowns averted 650,000 Covid-19 deaths

“Reducing movements within countries has been effective in developed economies – averting about 650,000 deaths – but not in developing ones,” according to new research. “Countries that acted fast fared better” and “closing borders has had no appreciable effect, even after 50 days.” The authors studied “various types of lockdowns implemented around the world mitigated the surge in infections and reduced mortality related to the Covid-19, and whether their effectiveness  differed in developing versus developed countries.” Their data cover 184 countries from December 31st 2019 to May 4th 2020, and identifies when lockdowns were adopted, along with confirmed cases and deaths. Link to paper: fast and local.

“Reducing movements within countries has been effective in developed economies – averting about 650,000 deaths – but not in developing ones,” according to new research. “Countries that acted fast fared better” and “closing borders has had no appreciable effect, even after 50 days.” The authors studied “various types of lockdowns implemented around the world mitigated the surge in infections and reduced mortality related to the Covid-19, and whether their effectiveness  differed in developing versus developed countries.”

Read the full article…

Posted by at 8:31 AM

Labels: Inclusive Growth

Algorithmic economics and how it might help recovery from Covid-19

AI Economist is a new portal devised by Salesforce to develop ‘ a new line of research that studies how to improve economic design using AI with the goal of optimizing productivity and social equality for everyone‘. Interesting piece in the FT on how the AI Economist can help in the Covid recovery.

Excerpts from the Salesforce interview  with the creators of the AI Economist:

How does the AI Economist work? 

Taxes and subsidies are important tools governments use to reduce inequality and redistribute wealth. However, we still haven’t quite figured out how to implement optimal tax policies for a wide range of social objectives, such as the trade-off between equality and productivity. Economic theory cannot fully model the complexities of the real world, and careful real-world experimentation with taxes is almost impossible. 

Through the AI Economist, we’re bringing reinforcement learning (RL) to tax research for the first time to provide a simulation and data-driven solution to defining optimal taxes for a given socio-economic objective.

The AI Economist uses a collection of AI agents designed to simulate how real people might react to different taxes. In the simulation, each AI agent earns money by collecting and trading resources and building houses. The agents learn to maximize their utility (or happiness) by adjusting their movement, trading, and building behavior. One way to do this is to maximize income while minimizing effort, for example, making as high of an hourly wage as possible.  

Simultaneously, the AI Economist learns to optimize taxes and subsidies to promote global objectives.”

AI Economist is a new portal devised by Salesforce to develop ‘ a new line of research that studies how to improve economic design using AI with the goal of optimizing productivity and social equality for everyone‘. Interesting piece in the FT on how the AI Economist can help in the Covid recovery.

Excerpts from the Salesforce interview  with the creators of the AI Economist:

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:35 PM

Labels: Inclusive Growth

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