Housing View – December 8, 2023

On cross-country:

  • BIS residential property price statistics, Q2 2023 – BIS
  • Housing and credit access – European Central Bank
  • Short supply of homes to push global property prices higher at slower pace – Reuters
  • Global Prime Residential Forecast – Knight Frank

Working papers and conferences:

  • Are Collateral and Lender Screening Efforts Substitutes? – SSRN
  • The Unintended Consequences of Home-buying Restriction in China – SSRN
  • Short-Term Forecasting Housing Investment: An Averaging Approach from a CEE Country – SSRN
  • Housing Regulation and Bubbles – SSRN
  • Pricing and Incentives in the Housing Market – SSRN   

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • The Most Important Inflation Indicator Shows More Cooling Ahead. Rent Growth in New Leases Continues to Normalize, Signaling Further Upcoming Decelerations in Official Housing Inflation Data – Apricitas Economics
  • Home Prices Are Historically High Next to Rents. Don’t Panic. The ratio is well above the levels that preceded the last housing crash. But there might be extenuating circumstances. – Bloomberg
  • Inflation Fight Has Come Down to Housing, Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee Says. The policy maker says inflation data released Thursday is where the Fed wants it to be – Wall Street Journal
  • Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.0% Below Peak. Price-to-rent index is 6.9% below recent peak – Calculated Risk
  • Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in October to New High; Up 6.0% Year-over-year. Austin Prices Down 11.2% from Peak Seasonally Adjusted – Calculated Risk
  • ICE (Black Knight) Mortgage Monitor: “Home prices continued sending mixed signals in October”. Florida has experienced some of the largest inventory gains in recent months – Calculated Risk
  • Mortgage Shoppers: Beware of High-Cost Options – NBER
  • Home price appreciation to cool in 2024: Goldman Sachs – Yahoo Finance

On the US—other developments:    

  • Home-Mortgage Lending Declines Again Across U.S. During Third Quarter As Mortgage Rates Climb – ATTOM
  • FHA First-Time Buyer Homeownership Sustainability: An Update – New York Fed
  • Understanding the Generational Gaps in Homeownership – St. Louis Fed 
  • 2024 Housing Market Forecast and Predictions: Housing Affordability Finally Begins to Turnaround – Realtor.com
  • Move Over Millennials, Gen Z is Driving Rental Demand – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
  • BofA Report Shows Fewer Prospective Homebuyers Willing to Wait for a Better Market Environment. 62% willing to wait for prices and/or rates to fall before buying a home, down from 85% just six months ago – Bank of America
  • Top Housing Markets for 2024 – Realtor.com
  • Slowest Housing Market in Years Is Weighing on Consumer Spending. Sofa sellers go bust, prospective homebuyers cut spending. Average household spends $8000 more over two years when moving – Bloomberg
  • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November with Comparison to 2019. Early data suggests new cycle low for sales in November 2023 – Calculated Risk

On China:

  • Restructure or liquidate? Deadline looms for China’s Evergrande. Heavily indebted developer must come up with a plan before crucial court hearing on Monday – FT
  • Give us our flats! The angry victims of China’s property crisis. Millions of people are waiting for homes that may never be built – The Economist

On other countries:  

  • [Spain] BBVA Research advierte que el “elevado costo de la vivienda” aleja al inversor de Espana – El Observedor
  • [Spain] ¿Está desesperado porque no hay vivienda protegida? Estos cambios auguran un resurgimiento de las casas asequibles. La revisión de los precios de venta y alquiler en algunas comunidades debería animar a los promotores a volver a construir este tipo de casas – El Pais
  • [Spain] El precio de la vivienda sigue al alza tras encarecerse la obra nueva un 11% en el tercer trimester. La fuerte subida de los pisos a estrenar, la mayor de los últimos 16 años, impide el ajuste en los precios medios, que aumentaron un 4,5% – El Pais
  • [Sweden] Swedish Homeowners Increasingly See House Prices Recovering – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices likely to fall by 1% next year, says Rightmove. Competition among sellers will increase as mortgage rates settle at ‘elevated’ level, website predicts – The Guardian

Posted by at 9:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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