The Unassuming Economist

From the IMF’s Finance & Development magazine:

“Markets and the state have long competed to control what Lenin called the commanding heights of the economy. After the Berlin Wall fell, markets seemed to reign supreme. Even many on the left, traditional supporters of a strong state, became champions of free markets. The brilliant economist Larry Summers professed “grudging admiration” for Milton Friedman and, while at the US Treasury in the 1990s, pushed for financial globalization, the free flow of capital across national borders.

Raghu Rajan never succumbed to the euphoria. While a firm believer in free markets and their benefits, he has been vocal about their costs. In Saving Capitalism from the Capitalists he wrote that the victims of competition should get help to ease their pain and secure their future: “Markets need a heart for their own good.” In 2005, in a now-famous speech, he warned that the excesses of financial globalization raised the odds of a “catastrophic meltdown,” earning a rebuke from Summers that Rajan was “slightly Luddite” and “largely misguided.”

The global financial crisis and recent discontent with globalization have proved Rajan prescient. His latest book attempts to go beyond warning of the dangers of unfettered capitalism to what can be done to fix it. Rajan suggests restoring the third pillar of society, the community, which he defines as a social group residing in a specific area that shares government and often a common heritage. Markets and the state remain indispensable, but “when the three pillars of society are appropriately balanced” … “society has the best chance for providing for its people,” particularly those who lose out from the effects of trade and technology.

Rajan points up the damage from international trade. US job loss from increased foreign competition, for instance, has contributed to lowering the life expectancy of middle-aged non-Hispanic white males. “It is as if ten Vietnam wars were simultaneously taking place, not in some faraway land, but in homes in small-town and rural America,” Rajan writes. Yet these communities’ fate was largely neglected by the mainstream establishment parties, who Rajan laments “do not even admit to the need for change” and tend to castigate losers from the effects of trade and technology as belonging to a basket of deplorables.

Rajan of course knows that communities too can pose dangers. The book contains a fascinating account of how markets and the state overcame the shortcomings of feudal communities, which provided stability but did little to spare most from abject poverty. Modern communities also erect walls, and overemphasis on tradition and fear of strangers and new ideas can leave people “trapped by the past.”

Still, Rajan argues, markets and the state have usurped communities’ power, and the balance needs to be reset. Power must devolve from global and national levels to the community. Rajan notes that as machines and robots begin to produce more of our goods and services, human work “will center once again around inter-personal relationships.” Communities could well be the workplace of tomorrow.”

From VOX post by Eduardo Levy Yeyati, Martín Montané, and Luca Sartorio:

“Governments around the world spend a large portion of their budgets on active labour market policies aimed at improving access to new jobs and higher wages. This column presents the first systematic review of 102 experimental interventions comprising a total of 652 estimated impacts. It finds that programmes are more likely to yield positive results when GDP growth is higher and unemployment lower, and that programmes aimed at building human capital show significant positive impact.”

Continue reading here.

From an IMF working paper by Signe Krogstrup and William Oman:

“Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of this century. Mitigation requires a large-scale transition to a low-carbon economy. This paper provides an overview of the rapidly growing literature on the role of macroeconomic and financial policy tools in enabling this transition. The literature provides a menu of policy tools for mitigation. A key conclusion is that fiscal tools are first in line and central, but can and may need to be complemented by financial and monetary policy instruments. Some tools and policies raise unanswered questions about policy tool assignment and mandates, which we describe. The literature is scarce, however, on the most effective policy mix and the role of mitigation tools and goals in the overall policy framework.”

From the Economist Intelligence Unit:

“The EIU’s Global Liveability Index 2019 has crowned Vienna as the world’s most liveable city. Vienna has retained pole position this year, overcoming stiff competition from Melbourne, Sydney, and Osaka.

Canadian cities have fared better than their US counterparts, with three in the top 10 and a fourth, Montreal (20th), ranked above any city south of the border. Meanwhile, the Venezuelan capital, Caracas, ranks in the bottom 10 as the government’s fight for legitimacy has impeded its ability to provide basic services for its citizens.”

From the IMF’s latest report on Saudi Arabia:

“Mortgage lending is growing strongly, and real estate prices have declined in recent years. Risks at this stage are limited, but policymakers need to keep a close eye on financial and fiscal risks from the housing market.

Real estate prices have fallen by around 20 percent since 2014. Housing rents have also been falling since early 2017. New supply is being driven by government initiatives to build affordable homes while the departure of expatriates may have slowed housing demand.

The government has initiated programs to build affordable housing and raise home ownership. It is providing access to land and financing to developers and encouraging new building technologies to increase the supply of houses. The white land tax announced in 2016 aims to incentivize land development. The approval of real estate investment traded funds (REITs) in 2016 and other reforms are expected to ease financial constraints faced by developers. In February 2018, a SAR 120 billion mortgage market plan was introduced to provide subsidized loans and support for developers. In addition, the developmental housing program partners with NGOs to build affordable houses for low-income households.

Housing demand is being spurred by credit policies and demographic trends. Increasing urbanization and declining household size are increasing housing demand by Saudis, while the departure of expatriates is slowing demand in the rental segment of the market. A new mortgage law was introduced in 2012 that enabled banks and non-bank institutions to lend for residential real estate. A facilitated mortgage program was introduced in 2016 to help Saudi families obtain mortgage loans. The maximum loan-to-value (LTV) ratio for first-time buyers was increased from 85 to 90 percent in January 2018 and risk weights on mortgage loans have been reduced. The PIF has set-up a mortgage refinance company.

Policymakers should remain vigilant about potential fiscal and financial risks as the real estate market develops. Large house price movements may trigger financial and macro instability as highlighted in the April 2019 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR). Banks’ exposure to the real estate sector is limited—mortgage loans were 17 percent of total bank credit to private sector at end-2018. In addition, mortgage payments are often directly debited from salary, limiting the likelihood of default. Further, many new mortgage loans are guaranteed by the government. Going forward, however, prudential policies should continue to pay close attention to the real estate market and the fiscal impact of housing programs including through PPPs will need to be carefully assessed.”