The Unassuming Economist

On cross-country:

• Golden Visa Programs, Once a Boon, Lose Their Luster. Spain is the latest European country to end its program, which brought in billions of euros from real estate investors seeking residency status but worsened a housing crisis for locals. – New York Times
• Why higher-for-longer interest rates may not be bad news for Asian property. While some markets have seen sharp declines in prices and transactions, borrowing costs are not the only factor at play in the region. The supply-demand imbalance, for one, is just as important – South China Morning Post

Working papers and conferences:

• Dynamics of the Long Term Housing Yield: Evidence from Natural Experiments – Princeton
• Hidden costs of homeownership: Race, income, and lender differences in loan closing costs – JP Morgan Chase
• The Mortgage Piggy Bank: Building Wealth Through Amortization – Quarterly Journal of Economics
• Housing Leverage, Home Value, and Retirement – SSRN
• Financialisation of the Maltese household? Household debt dynamics, the mortgage market, and housing in Malta – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Housing Market Slumps as Mortgage Rates Top 7%. Existing home sales in March fell 4.3% from February – Wall Street Journal
• US Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – April 2024 – Freddie Mac
• This State’s Housing Market Looks Most Vulnerable to Higher Mortgage Rates – Barron’s
• March 2024 Existing Home Sales: Housing Supply Continued To Increase But Sales Fell On Mortgage Rates Upside Surprise – Zillow
• The Cost of Buying a Home Hits New Record As Mortgage Rates Jump, Prices Rise 5% – Redfin 
• Housing Market Slumps as Mortgage Rates Top 7%. Existing home sales in March fell 4.3% from February – Wall Street Journal
• U.S. housing market paralyzed by lock-in effect – The Seattle Times
• New Home Sales Increase to 693,000 Annual Rate in March. Median New Home Price is Down 13% from the Peak – Calculated Risk
• Despite Higher Mortgage Rates, New Home Sales Post Solid Gain in March – NAHB
• Act Now or Miss Out: The 10 U.S. Cities Where Homes Are Selling Faster Than Anywhere Else – Realtor.com

On the US—other developments:    

• Housing Will Get More Expensive Because of the Fed. The only way to address the primary driver of high shelter costs is to build more apartments and houses. High interest rates prevent that. – Bloomberg
• Why a Housing Shortage Exists Despite More Houses Per Person – Marginal Revolution
• These Home Sellers Are Done Waiting for the Fed to Lower Rates. People need to upsize, downsize and change jobs, even if mortgage rates don’t come down soon – Wall Street Journal
• Scott on Housing in America: “The American Dream of homeownership is further out of reach today than it was just a few years ago.” – US Senate Committee on Banking Housing and Urban Affairs
• NMHC: “Apartment Market Continues to Loosen”. Leading indicator for Rents and Apartment Vacancies suggests more weakness for Apartments – Calculated Risk
• Housing market inventory is rising across most of the country—just look at these maps. Nationally, a lot more homes are available for sale than this time last year, but regionally the year-over-year housing inventory shifts vary by a lot. – Fast Company
• Challenge Accepted: How renters can overcome barriers to homeownership. Compromise is the watchword for location and affordability – Washington Post
• Costly Complexity. The needless complexity of affordable housing programs are hurting people they’re supposed to help. – Reason
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in March – Calculated Risk

On China:

• The Folly of China’s Real-Estate Boom Was Easy to See, but No One Wanted to Stop It. Developers, home buyers and Western bankers all ignored warning signs; ‘financial anomalies’ and ‘shenanigans’ – Wall Street Journal

On other countries:  

• [Israel] How Israel turned homeowners into YIMBYs. A housing success story – The Work in Progress
• [Italy] How a home-improvement subsidy is wrecking Italy’s public finances. Government largesse is costing taxpayers – The Economist
• [Philippine] Philippines housing market continues to recover – Global Property Guide
• [Switzerland] Switzerland’s stable housing market – Global Property Guide
• [United Kingdom] Hotspots turn not-spots as the rural housing market cools. As the work-from-home bubble bursts, Londoners who bought out of town during the pandemic are finding selling up a slow business – FT
• [United Kingdom] London Mansions Sold at 30% Discount Spell Gloom for Luxury Market. Wealthy home sellers are cutting prices to secure deals as a slump grips the city’s high-end postcodes. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] London house prices underperformed rest of UK for past 8 years. High costs, post-Covid trends and rising mortgage rates suppressed demand – FT
• [United Kingdom] The struggle to choose the right mortgage. As interest rates stay higher for longer, those looking to refinance face some difficult choices – FT
• [United Kingdom] Can long-term mortgages help solve the UK’s housing crisis? Home loans with interest rates fixed for a decade or more could get more buyers on to the ladder — and disrupt a £1.6tn industry – FT
• [United Kingdom] The UK Housing Market Has Turned a Corner. But asking price increases are still lagging wages and inflation. – Bloomberg

On cross-country:

• Global warming is coming for your home. Who will pay for the damage? – The Economist
• Homeowners face a $25trn bill from climate change. Property, the world’s biggest asset class, is also its most vulnerable – The Economist
• What’s the future for cities in the postpandemic world? – McKinsey

Working papers and conferences:

• Are friends electric? Valuing the social costs of power lines using house prices – LSE
• Income Inequality, House Prices, and Housing Regulations – SSRN
• Residential Housing Investment and Local Corruption: Evidence from the Chinese Housing Market – SSRN
• Generative AI and Price Discrimination in the Housing Market – SSRN
• The Prospect of Upward Housing Mobility: Future Homeownership Likelihood and Voter Behaviour in the United Kingdom – SSRN
• “It makes me sound like I’m a NIMBY; I’m not:” Local Political Norms and Liberal Support for Housing – SSRN
• A Search and Matching Model of Housing and Rental Market Interactions – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Freddie Mac Mortgage Rates Climb to 6.88% – Realtor.com
• Stay Put or Pay Up: Home Buyers Lose Hope for Lower Rates. Housing market affordability isn’t getting any better, with inflation keeping mortgage costs high – Wall Street Journal
• Single-Family Permits Performing Well in February 2024 – NAHB
• Airbnb says renters should be able to list their homes to make extra cash, too. The company is working with city and state governments to advocate for short-term rental rules – Quartz
• Inflation Comes for the Housing Market. Prices and mortgage rates are climbing as Wall Street bets that interest rates will remain higher for longer. – New York Times
• More renters worry ownership beyond their reach – Axios
• Boomers Bought Up the Big Homes. Now They’re Not Budging. Many empty-nesters are staying put rather than downsizing, keeping housing inventory tight – Wall Street Journal
• A Huge Number of Homeowners Have Mortgage Rates Too Good to Give Up. On a scale not seen in decades, many Americans are stuck in homes they would rather leave. – New York Times
• U.S. Home-Builder Sentiment Unchanged as Buyers Spurn High Mortgage Rates – Barron’s 
• Single Family Starts Up 22% Year-over-year in March; Multi-Family Starts Down Sharply. Housing Starts Decreased to 1.321 million Annual Rate in March – Calculated Risk
• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March – Calculated Risk
• 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in March; California Home Sales Down 4.4% YoY in March – Calculated Risk
• Rents Are the Fed’s ‘Biggest Stumbling Block’ in Taming US Inflation. Rent increases are taking longer to moderate in the Northeast and Midwest than in the West and South. – Bloomberg

On the US—other developments:    

• The Hidden Costs of Homeownership Are Skyrocketing. Rising insurance premiums, property taxes and maintenance costs show little sign of abating – Wall Street Journal
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2024 – Calculated Risk
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March – Calculated Risk
• Homeowners insurance is a stealth inflation driver – Axios 
• Most Home Buyers Want One, Medium-Sized Home Office – NAHB
• Continued Easing of Remodeling Declines Expected into 2025 – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• New York Is Passing a Big Housing Deal. Everyone Is Grumbling. The deal includes ‘good cause’ eviction protections in exchange for more new developer tax breaks – New York Times

On China:

• China Property Crisis Deepens With Vanke in Market Crosshairs – Bloomberg
• Urban Residential Construction and Steel Demand in China – Reserve Bank of Australia

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Quarterly states and territories chart pack: Spotlight on state housing markets – EY
• [Australia] Nimbys v Yimbys: the affluent inner Melbourne suburbs that aren’t pulling their weight on housing. Exclusive: Housing advocacy group says amenity-rich eastern suburbs must be rezoned to accommodate thousands of new homes – The Guardian
• [Brazil] Brazil’s housing market remains healthy – Global Property Guide
• [Canada] Canada’s banking regulator announces cap on banks’ mortgages to highly indebted borrowers – The Globe and Mail
• [Canada] Canada’s Housing Plan – Prime Minister of Canada
• [Canada] Trudeau’s Housing Gambit Has Business Worried About Tax Hikes. Finance minister has pledged to keep deficit at C$40 billion. Government has announced billions to address housing shortage – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Canada to allow some first-time home buyers to pay off mortgage in 30 years – Reuters
• [Canada] How Canada’s housing obsession is cannibalizing economic productivity – Globe and Mail
• [Canada] Home Prices Dip in Canada as Buyers Await Lower Mortgage Rates. Sales up slightly in March but remain below long-term average. Traders see summer rate cuts from the Bank of Canada – Bloomberg
• [Georgia] Georgia’s house price growth continues to accelerate – Global Property Guide
• [Ireland] Ireland to extend levy waiver for homebuilders, minister says – Reuters
• [Ireland] Ireland Must Speed Up Planning System on Housing, Makhlouf Warns – Bloomberg
• [Netherlands] Dutch House Price Increases Accelerating; Credit Performance Strong – Fitch Ratings
• [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices fall slightly due to higher stock levels, REINZ says – Reuters
• [Singapore] Singapore Home Sales Rise Most in Four Months on Launches. Sales were helped by ‘one-off’ spurt from suburban project. High interest rates are likely to weigh on the recovery – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] How US Inflation Can Affect UK House Prices. It is, of course, all about interest rate expectations. – Bloomberg

On cross-country:

• Housing is One Reason Not All Countries Feel Same Pinch of Higher Interest Rates. Effects may be delayed in some countries: if interest rates remain higher for longer, homeowners will likely feel their effects as mortgage rates adjust – IMF
• Monetary policy, mortgages, and the housing market – VoxEU
• Housing – probably important. Monetary transmission and millennial trolling from the IMF – FT
• A new dataset on housing affordability – VoxEU
• Reshaping the housing market: The enduring effects of the pandemic – VoxEU
• European house prices fall for first time in a decade. Strong growth in some eastern and southern countries was offset by declines in many northern EU states – FT
• House prices down, rents up between Q3 and Q4 2023 – Eurostat
• High mortgage rates lead to rise in lending scams. More prospective homebuyers are falling victim to offers of financing that are too good to be true – FT  

Working papers and conferences:

• Conference: Not your typical cycle: Where does real estate go from here? On May 8 – Dallas Fed
• Localized Housing Prices by Nonbanks – SSRN
• Understanding Intracity Housing Market Dynamics: A Hybrid Econometric and Machine Learning Approach – SSRN
• Housing Affordability: The Land Use Regulation link to Informal Tenure in Developing Countries – SSRN
• Inheritance Dynamics and Housing Price Fluctuations: Evidence from the China Household Finance Survey – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Fed’s Goolsbee says housing price pressures pose biggest inflation risk – Reuters
• Is housing overvalued or undervalued? Here’s Moody’s assessment of 403 housing markets. The overall U.S. housing market is ‘overvalued’ by 13.9%, finds Moody’s. Here’s what that means. – Fast Company
• Inflation Stays Hot as Housing Cost Growth Persists – NAHB
• Most Expensive Housing Markets in the US Get Unexpected Rebel. Ex-Fox News host barges into debate on California home prices. Lawmakers, billionaires push fixes for greater affordability – Bloomberg
• Housing Costs Continued to Rise Faster Than Before the Pandemic. It will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to rein in inflation fully if shelter costs continue to run hot. – New York Times
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March. Early Reports Suggest NAR reported Sales will be down from February – Calculated Risk
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March. Inventory Continues to Surge in Florida – Calculated Risk

On the US—other developments:    

• US Homes Face Costly Retrofits for Induction Stoves, EV Chargers. New homes in the US may not be “electrical ready” after an international standards agency excluded building electrification measures from its latest energy code. – Bloomberg
• 2024 Realtor.com Housing Market and Electric Vehicle Report – Realtor.com
• Biden’s Housing Agenda Needs a Renovation. If the president really wants to make homes more affordable, then there’s a lot more he could do. – Bloomberg
• Property Taxes on Single-Family Homes Up 7 Percent Across U.S. in 2023, to $363 Billion – ATTOM
• How a Pandemic Boom Led to a ‘Property Tax Mess’ in Colorado. A surge of new residents into Rocky Mountain states drove up home prices. The result was property tax increases of 40 percent or more for some of those already there. – New York Times
• A New York Housing Deal Could Be Close. What’s Holding It Up? The deal could clear the way for the construction of new homes and make it more difficult for landlords to evict renters, if lawmakers in Albany can find a compromise. – New York Times
• Only 4 Housing Markets Have Fully Recovered From the Pandemic—Here’s Where They Are – Realtor.com
• Public Housing Is Social Housing. The housing crisis is a calamity that can no longer be ignored. AOC and Bernie Sanders’s newly reintroduced Green New Deal for Public Housing highlights the importance of deeply affordable and generously funded public housing as key to solving this crisis. – Jacobin
• What people are sacrificing to afford housing – Axios 
• Residential Building Wages See Fastest Growth in More Than Two Years – NAHB
• Households May Finally Be Adjusting to Higher Mortgage Rates. Survey Shows Greater Optimism Toward Homebuying and Home-Selling. Conditions, Even as Pessimism Toward Rates Jumps – Fannie Mae 
• Doctors Making $350,000 Are Struggling to Find Long Island Homes. North Fork median home prices are approaching $1 million. Governor Hochul is attempting legislation to build housing – Bloomberg
• Housing market affordability is so strained that Home Depot is selling tiny homes for $63,000. Home Depot is following in the footsteps of Sears, which sold over 70,000 mail-order homes between 1908 and 1942. – Fast Company 
• An Update on the House Price Battle Royale: Low Inventory vs Affordability – Calculated Risk
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2024 – Calculated Risk

On China:

• Chinese Cities Further Ease Homebuying Policies to Spur Sales – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Australia] ‘No family, no friends, no backups’: is moving to regional Australia really a fix for the housing crisis? Prospective home owners are often lured to regional areas, but some who have moved say it comes with hidden costs – The Guardian
• [Australia] Why one segment of the housing market is about to get even hotter – Financial Review
• [Canada] Canada’s housing crunch is hurting our labour markets – The Globe and Mail
• [Canada] The Great Rebuild. Seven ways to fix Canada’s housing shortage – RBC
• [Canada] New housing measures to focus on supply, avoid ‘ginning up demand’: housing minister – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Canada homebuilding down for third year, housing agency predicts – Reuters
• [Canada] Trudeau Hints at Mortgage Reforms as He Rolls Out Housing Plan – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Bank of Canada leaves spring housing market in ‘holding pattern’ – Yahoo Finance
• [Hong Kong] A new normal: are the wild days of Hong Kong’s housing market a thing of the past? Strong supply and elevated interest rates mean house prices are unlikely to return to the kind of breakneck growth seen in the past, analysts say. ‘A healthy market is where there is supply, and property prices rise with inflation,’ says Donald Choi, CEO of Chinachem – South China Morning Post
• [Ireland] Incoming Irish Premier Sees Housing, Migration as Priorities. Harris calls strength of the Irish economy a ‘success’. Coalition government faces a growing challenge from Sinn Fein – Bloomberg
• [Korea] S. Korea’s housing market stabilizing, Yoon says – The Korea Herald
• [Poland] Polish house prices continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace – Global Property Guide
• [Slovenia] Slovenia’s house price growth moderating – Global Property Guide
• [Spain] Spain to scrap ‘golden visas’ for foreign real estate investors – Reuters
• [Spain] Spain axes ‘golden visa’ scheme to curb property speculation. Spain residency scheme introduced in 2013 was popular with wealthy Chinese and Russian applicants. Soaring house prices have become a major problem for many Spaniards, particularly in major cities – South China Morning Post
• [Spain] Spain’s house price growth continues, despite falling demand – Global Property Guide
• Al Jazeera
• [Sweden] Swedish Home Prices Extend Gains as Market Shows Signs of Thaw – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices fell in March for first time in 6 months, says Halifax. Figures from mortgage provider add to signs of unevenness in property market recovery – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK housing market recovery gains more ground, RICS survey shows – Reuters

On cross-country:

• The painful rise in home insurance costs. Climate resilience efforts are essential to keep a check on policy premiums – FT
• Event: Innovation in Affordable Housing: Lessons from the CAHF 2023 yearbook on April 4 – African Union for Housing Finance

Working papers and conferences:

• The American Housing Finance System: Structure, Evolution, and Implications – SSRN
• Addressing Housing Shortages Through Tax Abatement – SSRN
• Heterogeneous effects of a foreign buyer tax on house prices in New South Wales – Journal of Economic Geography
• Exploring Housing Networks and Driving Forces: A Global Perspective – SSRN
• Effects of Climate Change on House Prices In Outdoor Tourism Destinations – SSRN
• Non-Manipulable House Exchange Under (Minimum) Equilibrium Prices – SSRN
• New York City Relaxing Environmental Review Rules for Housing Construction – SSRN
• Housing Market, Extrapolative Belief, and Entrepreneurship: Micro Evidence from China – SSRN
• Putting a Ceiling on Housing Costs: The Aftermath of Constraining Rent Escalation in Korea – SSRN
• Balancing the scales: How housing supply regulation shapes household wealth inequality in China – Cities

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Biden administration to cap rent increases for some affordable housing units. The move was hailed by tenant advocates and criticized by others in the housing industry – Washington Post
• Housing Market 2024: Economists Predict Lower Mortgage Rates — Is It Time for You to Buy? – Yahoo Finance
• ICE Mortgage Monitor: The Impact of “Golden-Handcuffs” on Mortgage Payments – Calculated Risk
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 5.9% Year-over-year. Over the last 3 months, this index has only increased at a 1.7% annual rate – Calculated Risk
• Where home prices are falling — and which housing markets are most overvalued, according to three experts. Expect home-price growth to slow, or even fall in these areas — but not crash, one economist says – Market Watch
• Moderate House Price Increases Expected as Market Adjusts to High Rates – Yahoo Finance
• This interactive map shows what’s really happened to home prices since rates spiked. U.S. home prices have been in a period of sideways movement following the 2022 mortgage rate shock. But it varies by market. – Fast Company
• A typical home now costs $1 million and up in more than 500 U.S. cities. California, New York, and New Jersey are home to the most “million-dollar” cities in American – Quartz  
• How to Kill New York’s Rental Housing Market. Albany’s Good Cause Eviction proposal is universal rent control. – Wall Street Journal
• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• The Multifamily Supply Surge—and Credit Crunch. US Multifamily Housing Completions are at 50-Year Highs, But Tighter Credit Has Significantly Reduced Starts & Permits – Apricitas Economics

On the US—other developments:    

• The Newest Home-Buying Puzzle: What to Pay Your Real-Estate Agent. A legal settlement that stands to do away with longstanding real-estate commission rules is rewriting the playbook for home buyers – Wall Street Journal
• The real estate industry on trial – NPR
• Political Leaders Are Finally Responding to the Housing Crisis. They Need to Move Faster. The fear and anger at rising rents and unattainable homeownership has finally gotten policymakers’ attention. – Politico
• The housing market is thawing as an increasing number of ‘mortgage lock’ homes go up for sale, JPMorgan says – Yahoo Finance 
• You can’t afford to buy a house. Biden knows that. The housing crisis is already shaping the president’s reelection campaign. – Vox
• Here is how much household income you’ll need to afford the median-priced home in every US state – CNN
• The Boomer-Millennial Housing Battle Cools. And other takeaways from NAR’s Generational Trends Report – Home Economics
• Home-Buyer Preferences Shift as Affordability Challenges Remain – NAHB
• February Gains for Single-Family Construction Spending – NAHB
• Talking “toilets, taxes, and tenants”: Challenges mount for apartment owners in Twin Cities area. Conversations with leaders in the multifamily rental sector indicate that risks to their industry endanger future investments in housing supply and affordability – Minneapolis Fed
• Multigenerational housing is coming back in a big way. Americans used to live in multigenerational homes. We’re starting to, again. – Vox
• US Homeowners See Biggest Property Tax Rise in Five Years. Levies rose 6.9% in 2023, nearly twice the gain a year earlier. Report from ATTOM shows average tax climbed to $4,062 – Bloomberg
• Home Depot has bet $18bn on US housing market paralysis. Acquisition of building products supplier SRS Distribution will greatly expand company’s reach among contractors and builders – FT
• March 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Australia’s Home Prices Extend Gains Even as Elevated Costs Bite – Bloomberg
• [Australia] CoreLogic Home Value Index rises 1.6% in March quarter, adding around $12k to dwelling values – Core Logic
• [Australia] Australian house prices hit record high for fifth consecutive month. CoreLogic data shows prices rose 0.6% in March while separate index from PropTrack produces similar results – The Guardian
• [Australia] Australia Apartment Permits Hit 12-Year Low Due to Cost Blowouts. Building approvals are failing to keep up with housing demand. Government aim to build 1.2 million homes by mid-2029 in doubt – Bloomberg
• [Australia] The relentless rise of Australian house prices – Financial Review
• [Canada] Canada launches $6 bln housing fund in bid to quell housing crisis – Reuters
• [Canada] Trudeau Offers Billions to Boost Homebuilding, With Strings Attached. PM pledges C$5B in infrastructure funds in exchange for reform. Policy puts his government directly in conflict with Ontario – Bloomberg
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong New Home Sales Hit 11-Year High After Property Curbs Removed. New developments, government policy spur increased purchases. CK Asset’s Blue Coast had 50 times more bidders than units – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] New Zealand Posts First Annual Gain in House Prices in 18 Months. CoreLogic data shows values rise for sixth straight month. ‘High mortgage interest rates remain a big challenge’ – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] How council taxes and the budget are pushing owners to de-list second homes in England and Wales. Wales led the way in tackling the problem of empty properties and priced-out locals – and now Jeremy Hunt has weighed in – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Tenants are trapped in a collapsing housing system. Social housing tenants are suffering just as much as those in the private rented sector, writes Suzanne Muna. – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall for first time in three months amid ‘subdued’ market. Average price of home down 0.2% from February to March, to £261,142, says Nationwide – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] London’s Luxury Homeowners Who Bought at the Top Aren’t Selling. Only 3% of people who purchased prime properties in 2014 when price growth peaked have sold their homes. – Bloomberg