Housing View – April 26, 2024

On cross-country:

  • Golden Visa Programs, Once a Boon, Lose Their Luster. Spain is the latest European country to end its program, which brought in billions of euros from real estate investors seeking residency status but worsened a housing crisis for locals. – New York Times
  • Why higher-for-longer interest rates may not be bad news for Asian property. While some markets have seen sharp declines in prices and transactions, borrowing costs are not the only factor at play in the region. The supply-demand imbalance, for one, is just as important – South China Morning Post

Working papers and conferences:

  • Dynamics of the Long Term Housing Yield: Evidence from Natural Experiments – Princeton
  • Hidden costs of homeownership: Race, income, and lender differences in loan closing costs – JP Morgan Chase
  • The Mortgage Piggy Bank: Building Wealth Through Amortization – Quarterly Journal of Economics
  • Housing Leverage, Home Value, and Retirement – SSRN
  • Financialisation of the Maltese household? Household debt dynamics, the mortgage market, and housing in Malta – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Housing Market Slumps as Mortgage Rates Top 7%. Existing home sales in March fell 4.3% from February – Wall Street Journal
  • US Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – April 2024 – Freddie Mac
  • This State’s Housing Market Looks Most Vulnerable to Higher Mortgage Rates – Barron’s
  • March 2024 Existing Home Sales: Housing Supply Continued To Increase But Sales Fell On Mortgage Rates Upside Surprise – Zillow
  • The Cost of Buying a Home Hits New Record As Mortgage Rates Jump, Prices Rise 5% – Redfin 
  • Housing Market Slumps as Mortgage Rates Top 7%. Existing home sales in March fell 4.3% from February – Wall Street Journal
  • U.S. housing market paralyzed by lock-in effect – The Seattle Times
  • New Home Sales Increase to 693,000 Annual Rate in March. Median New Home Price is Down 13% from the Peak – Calculated Risk
  • Despite Higher Mortgage Rates, New Home Sales Post Solid Gain in March – NAHB
  • Act Now or Miss Out: The 10 U.S. Cities Where Homes Are Selling Faster Than Anywhere Else – Realtor.com

On the US—other developments:    

  • Housing Will Get More Expensive Because of the Fed. The only way to address the primary driver of high shelter costs is to build more apartments and houses. High interest rates prevent that. – Bloomberg
  • Why a Housing Shortage Exists Despite More Houses Per Person – Marginal Revolution
  • These Home Sellers Are Done Waiting for the Fed to Lower Rates. People need to upsize, downsize and change jobs, even if mortgage rates don’t come down soon – Wall Street Journal
  • Scott on Housing in America: “The American Dream of homeownership is further out of reach today than it was just a few years ago.” – US Senate Committee on Banking Housing and Urban Affairs
  • NMHC: “Apartment Market Continues to Loosen”. Leading indicator for Rents and Apartment Vacancies suggests more weakness for Apartments – Calculated Risk
  • Housing market inventory is rising across most of the country—just look at these maps. Nationally, a lot more homes are available for sale than this time last year, but regionally the year-over-year housing inventory shifts vary by a lot. – Fast Company
  • Challenge Accepted: How renters can overcome barriers to homeownership. Compromise is the watchword for location and affordability – Washington Post
  • Costly Complexity. The needless complexity of affordable housing programs are hurting people they’re supposed to help. – Reason
  • Final Look at Local Housing Markets in March – Calculated Risk

On China:

  • The Folly of China’s Real-Estate Boom Was Easy to See, but No One Wanted to Stop It. Developers, home buyers and Western bankers all ignored warning signs; ‘financial anomalies’ and ‘shenanigans’ – Wall Street Journal

On other countries:  

  • [Israel] How Israel turned homeowners into YIMBYs. A housing success story – The Work in Progress
  • [Italy] How a home-improvement subsidy is wrecking Italy’s public finances. Government largesse is costing taxpayers – The Economist
  • [Philippine] Philippines housing market continues to recover – Global Property Guide
  • [Switzerland] Switzerland’s stable housing market – Global Property Guide
  • [United Kingdom] Hotspots turn not-spots as the rural housing market cools. As the work-from-home bubble bursts, Londoners who bought out of town during the pandemic are finding selling up a slow business – FT
  • [United Kingdom] London Mansions Sold at 30% Discount Spell Gloom for Luxury Market. Wealthy home sellers are cutting prices to secure deals as a slump grips the city’s high-end postcodes. – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] London house prices underperformed rest of UK for past 8 years. High costs, post-Covid trends and rising mortgage rates suppressed demand – FT
  • [United Kingdom] The struggle to choose the right mortgage. As interest rates stay higher for longer, those looking to refinance face some difficult choices – FT
  • [United Kingdom] Can long-term mortgages help solve the UK’s housing crisis? Home loans with interest rates fixed for a decade or more could get more buyers on to the ladder — and disrupt a £1.6tn industry – FT
  • [United Kingdom] The UK Housing Market Has Turned a Corner. But asking price increases are still lagging wages and inflation. – Bloomberg

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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