Housing View – April 12, 2024

On cross-country:

  • Housing is One Reason Not All Countries Feel Same Pinch of Higher Interest Rates. Effects may be delayed in some countries: if interest rates remain higher for longer, homeowners will likely feel their effects as mortgage rates adjust – IMF
  • Monetary policy, mortgages, and the housing market – VoxEU
  • Housing – probably important. Monetary transmission and millennial trolling from the IMF – FT
  • A new dataset on housing affordability – VoxEU
  • Reshaping the housing market: The enduring effects of the pandemic – VoxEU
  • European house prices fall for first time in a decade. Strong growth in some eastern and southern countries was offset by declines in many northern EU states – FT
  • House prices down, rents up between Q3 and Q4 2023 – Eurostat
  • High mortgage rates lead to rise in lending scams. More prospective homebuyers are falling victim to offers of financing that are too good to be true – FT  

Working papers and conferences:

  • Conference: Not your typical cycle: Where does real estate go from here? On May 8 – Dallas Fed
  • Localized Housing Prices by Nonbanks – SSRN
  • Understanding Intracity Housing Market Dynamics: A Hybrid Econometric and Machine Learning Approach – SSRN
  • Housing Affordability: The Land Use Regulation link to Informal Tenure in Developing Countries – SSRN
  • Inheritance Dynamics and Housing Price Fluctuations: Evidence from the China Household Finance Survey – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Fed’s Goolsbee says housing price pressures pose biggest inflation risk – Reuters
  • Is housing overvalued or undervalued? Here’s Moody’s assessment of 403 housing markets. The overall U.S. housing market is ‘overvalued’ by 13.9%, finds Moody’s. Here’s what that means. – Fast Company
  • Inflation Stays Hot as Housing Cost Growth Persists – NAHB
  • Most Expensive Housing Markets in the US Get Unexpected Rebel. Ex-Fox News host barges into debate on California home prices. Lawmakers, billionaires push fixes for greater affordability – Bloomberg
  • Housing Costs Continued to Rise Faster Than Before the Pandemic. It will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to rein in inflation fully if shelter costs continue to run hot. – New York Times
  • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March. Early Reports Suggest NAR reported Sales will be down from February – Calculated Risk
  • 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March. Inventory Continues to Surge in Florida – Calculated Risk

On the US—other developments:    

  • US Homes Face Costly Retrofits for Induction Stoves, EV Chargers. New homes in the US may not be “electrical ready” after an international standards agency excluded building electrification measures from its latest energy code. – Bloomberg
  • 2024 Realtor.com Housing Market and Electric Vehicle Report – Realtor.com
  • Biden’s Housing Agenda Needs a Renovation. If the president really wants to make homes more affordable, then there’s a lot more he could do. – Bloomberg
  • Property Taxes on Single-Family Homes Up 7 Percent Across U.S. in 2023, to $363 Billion – ATTOM
  • How a Pandemic Boom Led to a ‘Property Tax Mess’ in Colorado. A surge of new residents into Rocky Mountain states drove up home prices. The result was property tax increases of 40 percent or more for some of those already there. – New York Times
  • A New York Housing Deal Could Be Close. What’s Holding It Up? The deal could clear the way for the construction of new homes and make it more difficult for landlords to evict renters, if lawmakers in Albany can find a compromise. – New York Times
  • Only 4 Housing Markets Have Fully Recovered From the Pandemic—Here’s Where They Are – Realtor.com
  • Public Housing Is Social Housing. The housing crisis is a calamity that can no longer be ignored. AOC and Bernie Sanders’s newly reintroduced Green New Deal for Public Housing highlights the importance of deeply affordable and generously funded public housing as key to solving this crisis. – Jacobin
  • What people are sacrificing to afford housing – Axios 
  • Residential Building Wages See Fastest Growth in More Than Two Years – NAHB
  • Households May Finally Be Adjusting to Higher Mortgage Rates. Survey Shows Greater Optimism Toward Homebuying and Home-Selling. Conditions, Even as Pessimism Toward Rates Jumps – Fannie Mae 
  • Doctors Making $350,000 Are Struggling to Find Long Island Homes. North Fork median home prices are approaching $1 million. Governor Hochul is attempting legislation to build housing – Bloomberg
  • Housing market affordability is so strained that Home Depot is selling tiny homes for $63,000. Home Depot is following in the footsteps of Sears, which sold over 70,000 mail-order homes between 1908 and 1942. – Fast Company 
  • An Update on the House Price Battle Royale: Low Inventory vs Affordability – Calculated Risk
  • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2024 – Calculated Risk

On China:

  • Chinese Cities Further Ease Homebuying Policies to Spur Sales – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

  • [Australia] ‘No family, no friends, no backups’: is moving to regional Australia really a fix for the housing crisis? Prospective home owners are often lured to regional areas, but some who have moved say it comes with hidden costs – The Guardian
  • [Australia] Why one segment of the housing market is about to get even hotter – Financial Review
  • [Canada] Canada’s housing crunch is hurting our labour markets – The Globe and Mail
  • [Canada] The Great Rebuild. Seven ways to fix Canada’s housing shortage – RBC
  • [Canada] New housing measures to focus on supply, avoid ‘ginning up demand’: housing minister – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Canada homebuilding down for third year, housing agency predicts – Reuters
  • [Canada] Trudeau Hints at Mortgage Reforms as He Rolls Out Housing Plan – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Bank of Canada leaves spring housing market in ‘holding pattern’ – Yahoo Finance
  • [Hong Kong] A new normal: are the wild days of Hong Kong’s housing market a thing of the past? Strong supply and elevated interest rates mean house prices are unlikely to return to the kind of breakneck growth seen in the past, analysts say. ‘A healthy market is where there is supply, and property prices rise with inflation,’ says Donald Choi, CEO of Chinachem – South China Morning Post
  • [Ireland] Incoming Irish Premier Sees Housing, Migration as Priorities. Harris calls strength of the Irish economy a ‘success’. Coalition government faces a growing challenge from Sinn Fein – Bloomberg
  • [Korea] S. Korea’s housing market stabilizing, Yoon says – The Korea Herald
  • [Poland] Polish house prices continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace – Global Property Guide
  • [Slovenia] Slovenia’s house price growth moderating – Global Property Guide
  • [Spain] Spain to scrap ‘golden visas’ for foreign real estate investors – Reuters
  • [Spain] Spain axes ‘golden visa’ scheme to curb property speculation. Spain residency scheme introduced in 2013 was popular with wealthy Chinese and Russian applicants. Soaring house prices have become a major problem for many Spaniards, particularly in major cities – South China Morning Post
  • [Spain] Spain’s house price growth continues, despite falling demand Global Property Guide
  • Al Jazeera
  • [Sweden] Swedish Home Prices Extend Gains as Market Shows Signs of Thaw – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices fell in March for first time in 6 months, says Halifax. Figures from mortgage provider add to signs of unevenness in property market recovery – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK housing market recovery gains more ground, RICS survey shows – Reuters

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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