The Unassuming Economist

On cross-country:

• Global house prices close to bottoming out, BIS stats show – Central Banking
• BIS residential property price statistics, Q3 2023 – BIS
• Where are Europe’s most expensive cities for renters? – The Economist

Working papers and conferences:

• Why we need a green land value tax and how to design it – VoxEU
• Mortgage Borrowing Limits and House Prices: Evidence from a Policy Change in Ireland – SSRN
• Fifty Shades of the US States: News Media Coverage and Predictability of House Prices – SSRN
• Does Affordability Status Matter in Who Wants Multifamily Housing in their Backyard? – SSRN
• The Redistribution of Housing Wealth Caused by Rent Control – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• The Housing Market Still Has Hot Spots. 10 Places Where Prices Are Soaring. – Barron’s
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January; California Home Sales Up 5.9% YoY in January – Calculated Risk
• New Construction Activity Falls in January, Led by Multi-family – Realtor.com
• Single Family Built-for-Rent Almost Doubled Since 2020. Quarterly Housing Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design – Calculated Risk
• Rents Are Cooling, but Not Everywhere – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey – Fannie Mae

On the US—other developments:    

• Opportunity Zone Housing Markets Still Tracking Along with Broader U.S. Housing Market – Los Angeles Times
• The hottest trend in U.S. cities? Changing zoning rules to allow more housing – NPR
• US unions target the housing affordability crisis as their ‘biggest issue’. Organized labor across the country is now setting its sights on housing costs as rents and mortgages continue to soar – The Guardian  
• Realtors Are in Crisis—and Home Buyers Could Be the Winners. A wave of lawsuits over fees paid to agents has put the giant trade association on the defense; ‘it got arrogant’ – Wall Street Journal
• Berkeley’s Upzoning Would Be Among Nation’s Largest. A proposal to end exclusionary zoning would allow for 100,000 more homes in Berkeley’s neighborhoods. – The Discourse Lounge
• Investor home purchases halved since the height of the pandemic housing boom. Investors purchased 50% fewer homes in Q4 2023 compared to Q4 2021, according to the latest Redfin data. – Fast Company
• Did Wall Street kill the American Dream of homeownership? It depends on where you live – Fortune 
• The Great Compression. Thanks to soaring housing prices, the era of the 400-square-foot subdivision house is upon us. – New York Times
• The high cost of promoting homeownership. It’s individually rational, but collectively dysfunctional – Slow Boring
• New Single-Family Home Size Moves Lower – NAHB
• Good Times, Bad Times: Eviction Edition. Plus: Voters in Massachusetts reject state-mandated upzonings, Florida localities rebel against a surprisingly effective YIMBY reform, and lawsuits target missing middle housing in Virginia. – Reason

On China:

• China seen cutting mortgage reference rate for first time since June – Reuters
• China cuts mortgage-linked lending rate by record amount to aid property market. Five-year loan prime rate reduction unlikely to offer imminent relief to flagging home sales, analysts say – FT
• China’s Property Crisis: Inside a Ghost Town of Abandoned Mansions – Wall Street Journal

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Trudeau’s welcome mat for immigrants wears thin amid Canada housing crunch – Reuters
• [France] Macron has a big housing headache. Olympics are making it worse. The French government has made tackling the housing crisis a priority in an attempt to improve living conditions for the middle class. – Politico
• [Germany] German house prices are in freefall – Global Property Guide
• [Israel] How Israel turned homeowners into YIMBYs. Homeowners are often the biggest opponents of building new homes. An Israeli reform reversed this by making homeowners the main beneficiaries of development. – Work in Progress
• [Italy] Italy’s sluggish housing market – Global Property Guide
• [Ireland] Mortgage holders paying up to €7,292 in extra charges per year by not switching. Online broker doddl.ie has urged mortgage holders to shop around for better rates – The Irish Times
• [Ireland] Ireland’s Biggest Private Residential Landlord Avoids Investor Takeover. Irish Residential key to country resolving its housing crisis. Vision Capital Corp. had tried to overthrow the board – Bloomberg
• [Ireland] Governments used to boast about higher house prices – not anymore. Increasing property values were once seen as reflective of a strong economy and therefore trumpeted by incumbent administrations – The Irish Times
• [Germany] Berlin’s Housing Slump Is Over as Shortage Lures Investors. The prospect of higher rents in the German capital is countering the downward pull of financing costs – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] How likely is a recovery in the UK housing market? Falling mortgage rates and an uptick in agreed sales offer encouragement. But economic risks remain – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK to Toughen Rules on Short-Term Lets to Tackle ‘Hollowing Out’ – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Government to outline new curbs on short-term lets in England. Local residents being pushed out of tourist hotspots prompts response – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK Home Asking Prices Rise as Mortgage Relief Spurs Activity. Rightmove says price of new listings now higher than year ago. Findings are further evidence of market recovering momentum – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Mortgage lending to older UK borrowers slumps. Higher interest rates hit the market for the over-55s – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK Homeowners Are Proving More Resilient Than Once Feared. Affordability tests help ensure mortgage market’s resilience. Those re-mortgaging benefit from falling borrowing costs – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Jeremy Hunt draws up plans for 99% mortgage scheme. UK chancellor’s move aims to reassure voters that Conservatives represent the interests of homeowners – FT
• [United Kingdom] Everything about Cambridge is booming — except housing supply. The population has been rising as jobs in biotech and pharma proliferate but the city struggles to build enough homes – FT

On cross-country:

• ‘Rent is too damn high!’ Europe’s growing housing crisis – Politico

Working papers and conferences:

• 4th Workshop on Rent Control on June 20 and 21 – DIW Berlin
• The effect of new housing supply in structural models: a forecasting performance evaluation – European Central Bank
• Direct Rental Assistance: Returning to the Roots of Housing Allowances – SSRN
• Behavioral Lock-In: Aggregate Implications of Reference Dependence in the Housing Market – SSRN
• Decomposing Fire Sale Discounts in Housing Markets – SSRN
• The Effect of New Housing Supply in Structural Models: A Forecasting Performance Evaluation – SSRN
• House of Cards? Perspectives on European Housing – SSRN
• Intertemporal Risk-Return Relationship in Housing Markets: International Evidence – SSRN
• Does Political Partisanship Affect Housing Supply? Evidence from Us Cities – SSRN
• Monetary Policy Shocks And Local Housing Markets – SSRN
• Income Inequality, Mortgage Debt and House Prices – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Warren Urges Powell to Cut Rates to Help Alleviate Housing Costs. Democratic senators write letter to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. High interest rates crimp housing supply, drive up rents – Bloomberg
• Mortgage Rates in US to Snap Three-Year Streak of Gains, Survey Shows. Rate on a 30-year, fixed mortgage is expected to fall to 5.5%. For offices, some expect demand to start reaching a bottom. – Bloomberg
• US Home-Price Growth Slows as High Rates Squeeze Demand. Gains in November eased after borrowing costs hit a high. Buyers are facing prices that are 69% above a 2006 peak – Bloomberg
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 5.1% year-over-year in November. FHFA: House Prices “Up 6.6 Percent from Last Year” – Calculated Risk
• New Home Sales Bounce Back in December on Lower Mortgage Rates – NAHB
• Housing is now unaffordable for a record half of all U.S. renters, study finds – NPR
• All-Cash Share of New Home Sales Remains Elevated in 2023 – NAHB
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 6.6% Year-over-year. Austin Prices Down 12.4% from Peak Seasonally Adjusted – Calculated Risk

On the US—other developments:    

• Brutal Winter Across America Is Keeping the Housing Market on Ice. Even as mortgage rates drop, storms and subzero temperatures have kept a lot of potential buyers on the sideline – Wall Street Journal
• The One Part of the Housing Market That’s Growing. As owners remain reluctant to put their properties on the market, developers are rushing to build new homes to meet demand. – New York Times
• Home Selling Profits Drop in 2023 for First Time in Over a Decade Amid Modest Price Gains – ATTOM
• Where Can Gen Z Buy a Home? Older members of the generation are early in their careers, and they face increases in inflation, home prices and interest rates. – New York Times and Point2
• Amid a Housing Crunch, Religious Groups Unlock Land to Build Homes. Faith-based organizations are unlocking their real estate to develop affordable housing, but they face challenges from reluctant local residents, wary lenders and strict zoning laws. – New York Times
• Is Now a Good Time to Buy? – Freddie Mac
• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rate Increased Slightly, Multi-family Unchanged in December. CoreLogic: “Home Loan Performance Remains Strong” – Calculated Risk
• Can You Afford a Home in America’s Top Emerging Housing Market? – Realtor.com
• ‘We’re at a Turning Point’: Is the Housing Market Finally Thawing—or Is Another Deep Freeze To Come? – Realtor.com

On China:

• China’s Guangzhou first to completely ease purchase limit on large homes – Reuters
• Evergrande Set for Liquidation as China Property Crisis Drags On. Developer will end up in new management, judge says in order. Trading in the stock halted after 21% tumble on Monday – Bloomberg
• Chinese developer Evergrande ordered to be wound up by Hong Kong court. Indebted property group fails to agree restructuring plan with creditors – FT 
• Evergrande is the teetering domino that can topple its real estate peers. Property prices in China could take yet another hit from deconstruction of the indebted developer – FT
• China’s Deflation Pressures Seen Persisting Through Mid-2024. Economists also expect home prices will fall m/m until 3Q. 2024 GDP growth expected at 4.6% y/y, up from earlier estimate – Bloomberg
• Evergrande’s liquidation is a new low in China’s property crisis. A judge in Hong Kong surprises the mainland – The Economist
• China’s Economy Czar Presses Cities on Funding for Real Estate. Property sector has been a major drag on China’s economy. He Lifeng calls on cities to make timely moves on financing – Bloomberg
• China Home Sales Slump Persists After Evergrande Liquidation. China Jan new homes sales record low in recent years. Local gov ramped up support by drafting white list projects – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Canada] How will the Bank of Canada’s rate hold impact the housing market? – Bloomberg
• [Georgia] Gross rental yields in Georgia: Tbilisi and Batumi – Global Property Guide
• [Germany] Gross rental yields in Germany: Berlin and 7 other cities – Global Property Guide
• [Japan] Gross rental yields in Japan: Tokyo and 7 other cities – Global Property Guide
• [Netherlands] Gross rental yields in Netherlands: Amsterdam and 3 other cities – Global Property Guide
• [New Zealand] Upzoning New Zealand. How a small country started building a lot of homes – Work in Progress
• [New Zealand] New Zealand House Prices Rise at Slower Pace, CoreLogic Says – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Reliable UK Mortgage Payers Deliver Juiciest Debt Returns Since 2009. Mortgage delinquincies seen at less than 1.3% in 2023. Residential mortgage-backed notes delivered over 6% last year – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Five of the best books about the UK housing crisis. From costs to quality, housing can make you despair. Our best five books explain the politics behind the problems – and the solutions – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] London’s Sky-High Home Prices Are Most Affordable in Decade. Zoopla data shows property in the capital underperforming UK. London homes are still the most expensive in Britain – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise more than expected in January, says Nationwide. Month-on-month increase of 0.7% is fastest pace since October as mortgage rates ease – FT