The Unassuming Economist

On cross-country:

• Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing market risks – BIS
• Global housing markets shrug off the impact of higher rates – Knight Frank
• Most European Housing Markets to See Modest Price Growth in 2024 – Fitch Ratings
• European mortgage market set for lowest growth in a decade. High rates and inflation and slowing economies have taken their toll on demand, finds EY report – FT
• Asia’s housing market pain: why Japan could be next. China’s property crisis is just one of many signs that Asia’s housing sector troubles are far from over. Japan could be in for a shock if a shift from years of ultra-loose monetary policy pushes up lending rates, hitting home loans hard – South China Morning Post

Working papers and conferences:

• Feeling Rich, Feeling Poor: Housing Wealth Effects and Consumption in Europe – IMF
• Mortgage Debt and the Consumption Response to Fiscal Transfers – FHFA
• The Effect of Land Leverage on House Sale Probability and Price – SSRN
• The Escalating Housing Crisis in Europe: An Inexorable Progression – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• US market distortions put spotlight back on 30-year mortgage debate. Americans love long, fixed-rate loans but they can make homes less affordable for low income earners – FT
• The “Home ATM” Mostly Closed in Q3. Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was low in Q3 – Calculated Risk
• Mortgage rates are sinking, but don’t try to time the housing market by waiting for them to fall further, BofA exec says – Business Insider
• Mortgage Rates in US Fall for Sixth Week, Dropping Closer to 7%. Average for 30-year loans is at lowest level since August. Steeper declines needed to reinvigorate demand, economist says – Bloomberg
• Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO. REO: lender Real Estate Owned – Calculated Risk
• Will House Prices Go Down? Goldman Sachs Gives Housing Market Prediction – Newsweek

On the US—other developments:    

• The Math for Buying a Home No Longer Works. These Charts Show You Why. What does it take to buy a home in the U.S.? A lot more than it did before the Federal Reserve raised interest rates – Wall Street Journal
• New Legislation Proposes to Take Wall Street Out of the Housing Market. A bill introduced in the House and Senate would prevent hedge funds from owning single-family houses in the United States. – New York Times
• US Homebuilding Is Weathering the Fed’s Hikes – Bloomberg
• Housing Markets Facing Greater Risk Of Downturns Clustered In California, New Jersey And Illinois – ATTOM
• Another Housing Crash? These Are the Markets Most at Risk of a Downturn – Realtor.com
• 2023 Has Been The Least Affordable Year for Homebuying on Record—But 2024 Is Looking Up – Redfin
• Remarks by National Economic Advisor Lael Brainard Addressing the Challenge of Housing Affordability At the National Housing Conference – White House 
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November with Comparison to 2019 – Calculated Risk
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December – Calculated Risk
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December – Calculated Risk
• Housing Affordability Conditions Tumble in October 2023 – National Association of Realtors
• Homeowner Mobility Stalls Amid Rising Interest Rates – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Seasonal Influence Eases U.S. Foreclosure Activity, Marking Slight Decline – ATTOM
• Economists: Turnaround in Home Sales Likely in 2024 – National Association of Realtors

On China:

• Country Garden Staves Off Worsening of Debt Crisis With Payment. China developer repaid 800 million yuan note ahead of schedule. Local firm stake exit aimed at helping offshore restructuring – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Australia Will Raise Fees for Foreigners Buying Existing Houses – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Australia to Cut Record High Migration as Housing Crisis Bites. New strategy to bring in skilled workers and control migration. Government says intake will return to pre-pandemic levels – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Australia’s Housing Costs Have Hit New Highs. Officials See Migrants as Part of the Problem. Many newcomers have settled in cities where housing is in short supply, raising concerns about property affordability – Wall Street Journal
• [Australia] Australian Builders Reject Moves to Sting Foreign Investors in Housing – Wall Street Journal
• [Australia] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: Australia – BIS
• [Australia] Shifting the needle on the housing crisis: will Chalmers’ plan to slug foreign home buyers be enough? Treasurer has announced plans to triple fees foreigners pay when buying established homes and to double penalties for leaving a property vacant – The Guardian
• [Australia] Australian Property Forecast: What’s In Store For 2024? – Forbes
• [Belgium] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: Belgium – BIS
• [Canada] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: Canada – BIS
• [Canada] Economic progress report: Immigration, housing and the outlook for inflation – Bank of Canada
• [Canada] Bank of Canada urges removal of barriers to home building to cut inflation – Reuters
• [Canada] Canada Revives Wartime Home Strategy to Address Housing Crisis. Thousands of simple ‘Victory Houses’ built starting in ‘40s. New program to add dense homes such as multiplexes, mid-rises – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Bank Watchdog Keeps Rule That’s Slowing Canada’s Mortgage Market. Regulator holds mortgage qualifying rate at existing level. Canada’s housing market faces decades-low affordability – Bloomberg
• [Canada] ‘A buyers’ market with no buyers’: CIBC economist on housing market – Bloomberg
• [France] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: France – BIS
• [Germany] German Housing Crisis Deepens as Slump in New Orders Hits Record. More home builders report suffering from financial strains. Sector confidence falls further, with no turnaround in sight – Bloomberg
• [Hong Kong] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: Hong Kong – BIS
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s property pain may soon get real – Reuters
• [India] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: India – BIS
• [Ireland] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: Ireland – BIS
• [Ireland] Ireland’s housing crisis is a disaster for its people – and a gift to far-right fearmongers. Decades of skewed policy have led to one of Europe’s worst shortages of affordable homes. Now it is being weaponised against refugees – The Guardian
• [Ireland] House prices across the State rise by 2.3% but Dublin down again. Central Statistics Office index records 0.6% decrease in residential property prices in Dublin, while prices outside Dublin are up by 4.5% – The Irish Times
• [Israel] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: Israel – BIS
• [Luxembourg] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: Luxembourg – BIS
• [Mexico] ¿Qué factores impactarán en el crédito hipotecario en el 2024? – El Economista
• [Netherlands] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: Netherlands – BIS
• [New Zealand] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: New Zealand – BIS
• [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices fall but activity up -REINZ – Reuters
• [Singapore] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: Singapore – BIS
• [Singapore] Singapore Narrows the Gap With Hong Kong on Real Estate Deals – Bloomberg
• [Sweden] Swedish Turn Positive on Home Prices After Benchmark Rate Levels Off – Bloomberg
• [Sweden] Sweden Posts Sharp Home-Price Plunge as Rates Hit Global Markets. The Nordic country logged an 11% decline in the year through September, whereas the global average gained slightly, according to Knight Frank. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK Housing Market Gloom Returns After Unexpected Price Rises. Asking prices fell by an unusually large 1.9% in December. Banking group expects 8% drop in mortgage lending next year – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Fell Sharply in December – Wall Street Journal
• [United Kingdom] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: United Kingdom – BIS
• [United Kingdom] Britain needs more houses. Does the industry want to build them? Developers are wary of adding supply to a falling market – The Economist
• [United Kingdom] UK Mortgage Lending Falls Sharply as Arrears Increase, BOE Says. Figures show impact of interest rate hikes on property market. Value of all mortgage loans fell in the third quarter – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK Home Asking Prices Are Down 5% From the Peak. Sellers appear to be waking up to higher interest rates. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK mortgage arrears hit six-year high, data shows. More homeowners struggle to meet payments in third quarter as interest rates remain elevated – FT
• [United Kingdom] Outlook improves for UK housing market, property survey finds. Sales expectations rose in November on the back of easing mortgage rates, Rics data shows – FT

On cross-country:

• BIS residential property price statistics, Q2 2023 – BIS
• Housing and credit access – European Central Bank
• Short supply of homes to push global property prices higher at slower pace – Reuters
• Global Prime Residential Forecast – Knight Frank

Working papers and conferences:

• Are Collateral and Lender Screening Efforts Substitutes? – SSRN
• The Unintended Consequences of Home-buying Restriction in China – SSRN
• Short-Term Forecasting Housing Investment: An Averaging Approach from a CEE Country – SSRN
• Housing Regulation and Bubbles – SSRN
• Pricing and Incentives in the Housing Market – SSRN   

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• The Most Important Inflation Indicator Shows More Cooling Ahead. Rent Growth in New Leases Continues to Normalize, Signaling Further Upcoming Decelerations in Official Housing Inflation Data – Apricitas Economics
• Home Prices Are Historically High Next to Rents. Don’t Panic. The ratio is well above the levels that preceded the last housing crash. But there might be extenuating circumstances. – Bloomberg
• Inflation Fight Has Come Down to Housing, Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee Says. The policy maker says inflation data released Thursday is where the Fed wants it to be – Wall Street Journal
• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.0% Below Peak. Price-to-rent index is 6.9% below recent peak – Calculated Risk
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in October to New High; Up 6.0% Year-over-year. Austin Prices Down 11.2% from Peak Seasonally Adjusted – Calculated Risk
• ICE (Black Knight) Mortgage Monitor: “Home prices continued sending mixed signals in October”. Florida has experienced some of the largest inventory gains in recent months – Calculated Risk
• Mortgage Shoppers: Beware of High-Cost Options – NBER
• Home price appreciation to cool in 2024: Goldman Sachs – Yahoo Finance

On the US—other developments:    

• Home-Mortgage Lending Declines Again Across U.S. During Third Quarter As Mortgage Rates Climb – ATTOM
• FHA First-Time Buyer Homeownership Sustainability: An Update – New York Fed
• Understanding the Generational Gaps in Homeownership – St. Louis Fed 
• 2024 Housing Market Forecast and Predictions: Housing Affordability Finally Begins to Turnaround – Realtor.com
• Move Over Millennials, Gen Z is Driving Rental Demand – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• BofA Report Shows Fewer Prospective Homebuyers Willing to Wait for a Better Market Environment. 62% willing to wait for prices and/or rates to fall before buying a home, down from 85% just six months ago – Bank of America
• Top Housing Markets for 2024 – Realtor.com
• Slowest Housing Market in Years Is Weighing on Consumer Spending. Sofa sellers go bust, prospective homebuyers cut spending. Average household spends $8000 more over two years when moving – Bloomberg
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November with Comparison to 2019. Early data suggests new cycle low for sales in November 2023 – Calculated Risk

On China:

• Restructure or liquidate? Deadline looms for China’s Evergrande. Heavily indebted developer must come up with a plan before crucial court hearing on Monday – FT
• Give us our flats! The angry victims of China’s property crisis. Millions of people are waiting for homes that may never be built – The Economist

On other countries:  

• [Spain] BBVA Research advierte que el “elevado costo de la vivienda” aleja al inversor de Espana – El Observedor
• [Spain] ¿Está desesperado porque no hay vivienda protegida? Estos cambios auguran un resurgimiento de las casas asequibles. La revisión de los precios de venta y alquiler en algunas comunidades debería animar a los promotores a volver a construir este tipo de casas – El Pais
• [Spain] El precio de la vivienda sigue al alza tras encarecerse la obra nueva un 11% en el tercer trimester. La fuerte subida de los pisos a estrenar, la mayor de los últimos 16 años, impide el ajuste en los precios medios, que aumentaron un 4,5% – El Pais
• [Sweden] Swedish Homeowners Increasingly See House Prices Recovering – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices likely to fall by 1% next year, says Rightmove. Competition among sellers will increase as mortgage rates settle at ‘elevated’ level, website predicts – The Guardian

On cross-country:

• Housing affordability: a new data set – BIS
• Mortgage rebound slows pace of eurozone credit contraction. Rising interest rates dried up lending in the credit-reliant single currency bloc – FT
• Making our homes greener: Impact of minimum energy efficiency regulations – VoxEU
• These are the world’s most expensive cities. EIU’s cost-of-living index shows where prices are highest – The Economist
• Why Housing is Unaffordable: The Elasticity of Supply – Marginal Revolution

Working papers and conferences:

• The Mortgage Market Research Conference: Call for Papers on May 15-16, 2024 – SSRN
• Research indicates foreign investment in U.S. real estate has underappreciated impacts. Boston Fed economist finds Chinese investment created shock, increased wealth, displaced residents – Boston Fed
• Monetary tightening in the Euro Area: Implications for residential investment – ESRI
• An Anatomy of Urbanization in Sub-Saharan Africa – World Bank
• Canada’s leadership and housing affordability: Evidence from the Canadian real estate market – Journal Urban Management

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Home Prices Climbed in September. Where They Could Go From Here. – Barron’s
• Home Prices Hit Fresh Record in September. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 3.9% from a year earlier – Wall Street Journal
• The Price Is Wrong for Housing. Even if mortgage rates come down, today’s high home prices don’t seem sustainable – Wall Street Journal
• After Falling Last Year, Home Prices Are Rising Again – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Will the Housing Market Roar Back in 2024? Our Fearless Predictions for the Year Ahead – Realtor.com

On the US—other developments:    

• This bird is cooked. Rising unemployment is bad news for the economy and for home prices – Home Economics
• Is it cheaper to rent or buy property? We crunch the house-price data across every American county—and make a surprising finding – The Economist
• Event: Have real estate and labor markets reached a new normal? Examining post-pandemic digital and housing market shifts in US regions on December 14 – Brookings
• It Will Never Be a Good Time to Buy a House – The Atlantic
• New Home Sales decrease to 679,000 Annual Rate in October. Median New Home Price is Down 18% from the Peak – Calculated Risk
• The Other Housing Crisis: Too Many Sick, Aging Homes. An aging US housing stock poses health risks to residents as much-needed repairs fall behind and the effects of climate change take a toll. – Bloomberg
• They Want to Split Up. The Housing Market Won’t Let Them. High mortgage rates and housing costs pose new problems for couples who are divorcing or separating – Wall Street Journal
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in October. New Listings Up Year-over-year in October – Calculated Risk
• HOA Fees and Fines Add to US Housing Affordability Crisis. Homeowners’ associations have become increasingly dominant, but the federal government has been reluctant to regulate them. – Bloomberg

On China:

• What China’s struggling property sector means for the global economy and markets – Goldman Sachs
• Unlike Japan, China’s property crisis won’t lead to lost decades. China’s crisis stems from overenthusiastic investment while Japan’s was a result of speculation and bank profligacy. To revitalise its economy and calm international jitters, Beijing should look to other industries with higher investment yields, such as the tech sector – South China Morning Post
• The human cost of China’s property crisis. One of the world’s biggest real estate collapses has hurt buyers, households and families across the country – FT
• China’s Powerlong Real Estate warns of debt default risk – Reuters
• China’s Home Sales Spiral Despite Backstop Plan for Developers – Bloomberg
• Fixing China’s Real-Estate Sector. Past warnings of a housing-market crash in China have never been borne out, with the real-estate sector always managing to muddle through. But unless the government takes concerted action to address the deteriorating finances of developers, this time may well be different. – Project Syndicate 

On other countries:  

• [Australia] How to tackle Australia’s housing challenge – Grattan Institute
• [Australia] Australian housing wealth is meaningless, destructive and fundamentally changing our society. High-priced homes do not create wealth, Alan Kohler says, they redistribute it. Now financial success is largely a function of geography, not accomplishment – The Guardian
• [Germany] German Real Estate Seeing Most Distress, Greystar CEO Says – Bloomberg
• [Portugal] Is Portugal’s Golden Visa Scheme Worth It? Wealthy investors pulled the country out of a financial crisis, but they also sent house prices skyrocketing. – Foreign Policy
• [Sweden] Swedish property: value gap is a hygge mugger for bank stocks. Reported values are resilient simply because valuers do not have transaction data to price accurately – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK property sellers accept 5.5% average discount on asking price. Increased supply and high mortgage rates give buyers the upper hand – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK mortgage approvals beat forecasts to hit to 3-month high. Bank of England data points to stabilisation in property market after long period of low house sales – FT