Housing View – December 1, 2023

On cross-country:

  • Housing affordability: a new data set – BIS
  • Mortgage rebound slows pace of eurozone credit contraction. Rising interest rates dried up lending in the credit-reliant single currency bloc – FT
  • Making our homes greener: Impact of minimum energy efficiency regulations – VoxEU
  • These are the world’s most expensive cities. EIU’s cost-of-living index shows where prices are highest – The Economist
  • Why Housing is Unaffordable: The Elasticity of Supply – Marginal Revolution

Working papers and conferences:

  • The Mortgage Market Research Conference: Call for Papers on May 15-16, 2024 – SSRN
  • Research indicates foreign investment in U.S. real estate has underappreciated impacts. Boston Fed economist finds Chinese investment created shock, increased wealth, displaced residents – Boston Fed
  • Monetary tightening in the Euro Area: Implications for residential investment – ESRI
  • An Anatomy of Urbanization in Sub-Saharan Africa – World Bank
  • Canada’s leadership and housing affordability: Evidence from the Canadian real estate market – Journal Urban Management

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Home Prices Climbed in September. Where They Could Go From Here. – Barron’s
  • Home Prices Hit Fresh Record in September. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 3.9% from a year earlier – Wall Street Journal
  • The Price Is Wrong for Housing. Even if mortgage rates come down, today’s high home prices don’t seem sustainable – Wall Street Journal
  • After Falling Last Year, Home Prices Are Rising Again – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
  • Will the Housing Market Roar Back in 2024? Our Fearless Predictions for the Year Ahead – Realtor.com

On the US—other developments:    

  • This bird is cooked. Rising unemployment is bad news for the economy and for home prices – Home Economics
  • Is it cheaper to rent or buy property? We crunch the house-price data across every American county—and make a surprising finding – The Economist
  • Event: Have real estate and labor markets reached a new normal? Examining post-pandemic digital and housing market shifts in US regions on December 14 – Brookings
  • It Will Never Be a Good Time to Buy a House – The Atlantic
  • New Home Sales decrease to 679,000 Annual Rate in October. Median New Home Price is Down 18% from the Peak – Calculated Risk
  • The Other Housing Crisis: Too Many Sick, Aging Homes. An aging US housing stock poses health risks to residents as much-needed repairs fall behind and the effects of climate change take a toll. – Bloomberg
  • They Want to Split Up. The Housing Market Won’t Let Them. High mortgage rates and housing costs pose new problems for couples who are divorcing or separating – Wall Street Journal
  • Final Look at Local Housing Markets in October. New Listings Up Year-over-year in October – Calculated Risk
  • HOA Fees and Fines Add to US Housing Affordability Crisis. Homeowners’ associations have become increasingly dominant, but the federal government has been reluctant to regulate them. – Bloomberg

On China:

  • What China’s struggling property sector means for the global economy and markets – Goldman Sachs
  • Unlike Japan, China’s property crisis won’t lead to lost decades. China’s crisis stems from overenthusiastic investment while Japan’s was a result of speculation and bank profligacy. To revitalise its economy and calm international jitters, Beijing should look to other industries with higher investment yields, such as the tech sector – South China Morning Post
  • The human cost of China’s property crisis. One of the world’s biggest real estate collapses has hurt buyers, households and families across the country – FT
  • China’s Powerlong Real Estate warns of debt default risk – Reuters
  • China’s Home Sales Spiral Despite Backstop Plan for Developers – Bloomberg
  • Fixing China’s Real-Estate Sector. Past warnings of a housing-market crash in China have never been borne out, with the real-estate sector always managing to muddle through. But unless the government takes concerted action to address the deteriorating finances of developers, this time may well be different. – Project Syndicate 

On other countries:  

  • [Australia] How to tackle Australia’s housing challenge – Grattan Institute
  • [Australia] Australian housing wealth is meaningless, destructive and fundamentally changing our society. High-priced homes do not create wealth, Alan Kohler says, they redistribute it. Now financial success is largely a function of geography, not accomplishment – The Guardian
  • [Germany] German Real Estate Seeing Most Distress, Greystar CEO Says – Bloomberg
  • [Portugal] Is Portugal’s Golden Visa Scheme Worth It? Wealthy investors pulled the country out of a financial crisis, but they also sent house prices skyrocketing. – Foreign Policy
  • [Sweden] Swedish property: value gap is a hygge mugger for bank stocks. Reported values are resilient simply because valuers do not have transaction data to price accurately – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK property sellers accept 5.5% average discount on asking price. Increased supply and high mortgage rates give buyers the upper hand – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK mortgage approvals beat forecasts to hit to 3-month high. Bank of England data points to stabilisation in property market after long period of low house sales – FT

Posted by at 9:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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