The Unassuming Economist

Working papers and conferences:

• Are Swedish House Prices Too High? Why the Price-to-Income Ratio Is a Misleading Indicator – NBER
• Can Everyone Tap into the Housing Piggy Bank? Racial Disparities in Access to Home Equity – Philadelphia Fed
• Exposure to Local Housing Markets and Bank Performance – SSRN
• The Ins and Outs of Selling Houses: Understanding Housing-Market Volatility – SSRN  

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Another Reason Mortgage Rates will Fall. As rate vol dips and the yield curve steepens, prepayment risk will abate – Home Economics
• Owning a Home Has Gotten Pricey, Fast. A Market Adjustment Is Coming. – Barron’s
• Home Prices Could Come Down. What It Would Take. – Barron’s
• First-Time Home Buyers Are Back in Force, Despite Higher Mortgage Rates – Barron’s
• Home Prices Rose the Most in These Cheaper Cities—and Came Down in These Pricier Ones – Realtor.com
• Renters: Results from the Zillow Consumer Housing Trends Report 2023 – Zillow 
• Reassessing the ‘Amazon Effect’ on Home Prices in One U.S. Metro Area – Realtor.com
• While All Inflation Feels Bad, Housing Inflation Is the Worst. For some, unaffordable homes undercut the American dream even more than high gasoline and food prices – Wall Street Journal

On the US—other developments:    

• Are Institutional Investors a Problem in the Housing Market? – Cato
• Time to take a wrecking ball to realtors’ fees in America. A court case is a first step to ending a racket – The Economist
• The Housing Challenge – Richmond Fed
• Housing is ‘unattainable’ for too many Americans: Fed’s Barkin – Yahoo Finance  
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November – Calculated Risk
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October. Early Reporting Markets suggest some month-to-month increase in Sales in October, SAAR – Calculated Risk
• Home Depot, Lowe’s may signal more pain from muted consumer spending, housing demand – Reuters
• Here’s how much you need to make to afford a home in America – CNN
• Are There Generational Gaps in Income and Homeownership? – St. Louis Fed
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November – Calculated Risk
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October. Markets reporting so far suggest sales close to 4 million SAAR in October – Calculated Risk
• The Fed Has Put Our Housing Market in Jeopardy – New York Times
• Americans are moving to smaller towns in the South. Enthusiasm for small-town living has outlived the pandemic – The Economist
• October 2023 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• Housing Finance Watch – AEI
• States reform regulations to support more housing production. States are re-examining how they regulate housing development as rents and mortgage prices increase – Minneapolis Fed

On China:

• China Mulls $137 Billion of New Funds to Aid Housing Market. PBOC to inject cheap funds in phases through banks: people. Plan would mark a step-up in Beijing’s effort to boost economy – Bloomberg
• China Credit Market Calm Belies Risks From Property Debt Crisis – Bloomberg
• China’s property boost has to sway wary banks – Reuters
• China Property Slump Deepens as Beijing Mulls More Stimulus. Investment in development fell 9.3% through first 10 months. Beijing plans 1 trillion yuan in housing financing package – Bloomberg
• China Housing Woes Worsen as Prices Fall Most in Eight Years. Homebuyers are deterred by uncertain outlook, analyst says. Property slump is deepening despite stimulus measures – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Australia’s Housing Crunch Lures More Private Credit Lenders. Banks go cool on commercial property as capital rules tighten. Funds look to residential developments amid housing shortage – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Australia’s Housing Crunch Lures More Private Credit Lenders. Banks go cool on commercial property as capital rules tighten. Funds look to residential developments amid housing shortage – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Planning in reverse: Rethinking housing targets – New Geography
• [Canada] Let’s stop calling it a housing crisis – Policy Options
• [Canada] CMHC Eyes C$8.5 Billion Bond Sale as Soon as Next Week. Transaction would be done before government’s fall statement. Agency to issue 10-year bonds and floating rate 5-year bonds – Bloomberg
• [Ecuador] Ecuador to Expand and Improve Housing for Poor and Vulnerable Populations – IDB
• [Germany] German homebuilding collapse threatens wider economic damage. Once-thriving residential construction industry has slumped, posing drag on EU’s largest economy – FT
• [Germany] No Balconies or Luxury Toilets: How This City Fought Soaring Rents and Lost. Rents are rising at a record pace in Berlin despite anti-gentrification rules and rental caps – Wall Street Journal
• [Germany] Berlin’s renters face more misery as housing crisis deepens – Reuters
• [Hungary] Hungary Starts Golden Visa Program for Real Estate Investors. Previous residency program was shut down after graft concerns. New iteration is part of bill that seeks to limit immigration – Bloomberg 
• [Ireland] Dublin house prices decline by 1.9% as higher interest rates deter buyers. Latest CSO data highlights a fall-off in transactions in September – The Irish Times
• [New Zealand] Upzoning New Zealand. New Zealand passed the most ambitious upzoning reforms in the world. Now comes the backlash. – Work in Progress
• [Singapore] Singapore’s Housing Rally Is Set to End, Morgan Stanley Says. Home prices forecast to fall 3% in 2024, downturn may persist. City Developments, UOL drop on Morgan Stanley’s downgrades – Bloomberg
• [Singapore] Swiss Real Estate Market Remains Vulnerable, Central Banker Says. Residential property prices have rallied to highest on record. SNB vice president reaffirms more rate hikes can’t be excluded – Bloomberg
• [Sweden] Swedish Households’ Outlook on Housing Prices Fades Further – Reuters
• [Sweden] Svensson says house price metrics ‘unreliable and misleading’ – Central Banking
• [United Arab Emirates] Dubai’s Record Home Prices May Start to Fall by End of 2024, S&P Says. S&P sees mild price correction of 5% to 10% in 12 to 18 months. Dubai’s property market has been fueled by influx of newcomers – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] New mortgage deal falls below 5% in ‘watershed moment’ for UK homeowners. Nationwide’s two-year fixed rate deal offered at 4.99% as lenders jostle for customers – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Housing market downturn pushes UK estate agents to consolidate. Shrinking market offers opportunities for larger players looking to move into lettings – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK Home Asking Prices Are Falling Slowly But Surely. At least affordability is edging in the right direction. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices suffer first annual fall since 2012. Rental charges rise at record pace as high borrowing costs hit both would-be buyers and landlords – FT

On cross-country:

• What happened to Airbnb? Financially, the sharing economy darling is thriving, but guests, hosts, and cities have had enough. – Vox
• ECB tells banks to factor in further drop in property prices – Reuters
• Why US Property Retains Its Value Compared to Other Global Markets – CoreLogic

Working papers and conferences:

• Tax Policy and the Heterogeneous Costs of Homeownership – NBER
• Seller and Search Behavior in the Belgian Housing Market – SSRN
• One Monetary Policy and Two Bank Lending Standards: A Tale of Two Europes – SSRN
• In Search of the Matching Function in the Housing Market – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Lawler: Single-Family Rent Results. Invitation Homes, and AMH (American Homes 4 Rent) – Calculated Risk
• Mortgage Rates Hurt the Housing Market. It’s Been a Different Story for Million-Dollar Homes. The number of people paying cash instead of financing has given the high-end home market a boost – Wall Street Journal
• Housing Market Update: A Record Share of Home Sellers Drop Prices As High Rates Cut Into Buyers’ Budgets – Redfin 
• Turning Empty Offices into Apartments Is Getting Even Harder. Slowing rent growth may make conversions less attractive to investors – Wall Street Journal
• Mortgage-backed securities market waits for interest rate clouds to lift. Historically expensive home loans have hit issuance, while demand from key buyers has slumped – FT
• US Home Price Insights – November 2023 – CoreLogic

On the US—other developments:    

• The US Housing Market Has Become an Impossible Mess. Americans with cheap loans don’t want to sell. Those without homes can’t afford to buy. Will anything budge? – Bloomberg
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October. Early Reporting Markets suggest some month-to-month increase in Sales in October, SAAR – Calculated Risk
• Housing Affordability Hits a 39-Year Low. ‘It’s Fair To Expect Prices To Weaken,’ Expert Says. – Realtor.com
• Hidden Gems: Affordable Housing Hot Spots Within America’s Priciest Metros – Realtor.com
• Inventory will Tell the Tale – Calculated Risk
• Racial Disparities in Housing. While there has been some progress to close racial wealth and housing gaps, racial disparities still run deep in the housing market. This data highlights the current landscape of racial inequalities in housing. – Zillow

On China:

• China’s Banks and Property Sector Threaten a Growing Economy. The International Monetary Fund warned of risks from overstretched lenders and developers even as it raised economic growth forecasts for this year and next. – New York Times
• More Semiconductors, Less Housing: China’s New Economic Plan. Policymakers, wary of inciting reckless borrowing in real estate, are instead investing heavily in factories and trying to help indebted local governments. – New York Times
• China hunts for new industrial ‘pillars’ to replace a wobbly property market. With the property sector, formerly a steady driver of GDP growth, no longer able to deliver, new industries will have to take its place. But there is no one sector which can be simply swapped into the role – multiple areas, now on the rise, must be combined to carry the same heft – South China Morning Post

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Five things to know about migration and the housing market – CoreLogic
• [Australia] Why Australia’s resilient housing market is in a precarious place. Australia’s housing market epitomises the three themes that have characterised property markets globally: resilience, stress and affordability. Rising house prices and rents are driving inflation and contributing to tighter financial conditions, which then exacerbates affordability issues – South China Morning Post
• [Austria] How the Gemeindebau Made Vienna the Capital of Public Housing. With their huge scale and shared amenities, the municipal apartment complexes of the Austrian capital are a model that other cities struggle to copy. – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Canada plans to convert public buildings into new 2,800 homes amid shortage – Reuters
• [Canada] Housing shifts from NIMBY to nimble – The Globe and Mail
• [Canada] Interest rates continue to take a toll on housing as sales and prices continue to soften – Canadian Mortgage Trends
• [France] Crédit Agricole warns of slowdown in mortgage demand in France. Country’s biggest mortgage lender rejects criticism that banks are holding back – FT
• [Germany] Wave of cancellations in German housing construction at new high – Ifo – Reuters
• [Hong Kong] Tackle Hong Kong’s shortage of affordable housing with more subsidised sale flats. If the government wants to eradicate subdivided units, increasing public rental housing supply alone will not get the job done. Too many people are ineligible to rent government-subsidised flats, and maintaining these estates comes at a steep price – South China Morning Post
• [Norway] Norway House Prices Rise, Defying Central Bank View – Bloomberg
• [Switzerland] SNB’s Jordan Warns That House Prices in Switzerland May Drop. Central bank head says development of rents will be important. He adds regulators must assess banks’ ability to get capital – Bloomberg
• [Switzerland] Swiss House Prices Hit Fresh Record Amid Overheating Worries. Residential property price index highest since data available. Central bank warned that prices may drop on overvaluations – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Can ‘gentle density’ help us solve the housing crisis? With up to 4mn new homes needed in Britain alone, urban planners are looking to the ideas behind the buzzwords – FT
• [United Kingdom] Buy a Home, Get a Tesla: UK Builders Tempt Buyers With Freebies. Firms offering mortgage help, cash to buy Tesla to boost sales. High borrowing costs are hindering demand from would-be buyers – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices register first increase since March, says Halifax. Mortgage provider attributes slight rise to scarcity of supply – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK housing market is past its ‘peak pain’, declares Savills. Upmarket estate agent says prices will start to bottom out in 2024 as interest rates fall and will return to growth in 2025 – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Downturn in UK housing market bottoms out in October: RICS – Reuters

On cross-country:

• Europe’s Great Housing Crisis Is Only Getting Started. A collapse in home building threatens to intensify shortages for years to come – Bloomberg
• We Should Look to Vienna for Answers to Our Housing Crisis. Vienna’s social housing triumphs show that when governments invest in housing as a human right, they can combat homelessness and inequality. It is an inspiration for what cities can accomplish if they elevate human needs over the pursuit of private profits. – Jacobin

Working papers and conferences:

• Housing inequality and how fiscal policy shapes it: Evidence from Belgian real estate – SSRN
• Young Workers, Jobs-Housing Balance, and Commute Distance: Findings from Two High-Housing-Cost U.S. Regions – SSRN
• Housing Prices and Rents in Australia 1980-2023: Facts, Explanations and Outcomes – SSRN
• High Temperature, Climate Change and Real Estate Prices – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Fannie and Freddie: Single-Family Mortgage Delinquency Rate Mostly Unchanged in September. CoreLogic: US Serious Mortgage Delinquency Rate Drops to All-Time Low in August – Calculated Risk
• US new home sales scale 19-month high as median price drops – Reuters
• Surging US mortgage rates halt rally in homebuilder stocks. Shares of leading developers sag as demand for new houses starts to falter – FT
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.6% year-over-year in August; New all-time High
• “Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index … rose 5.6 percent from August 2022 to August 2023 ” – Calculated Risk
• Nationally, the Real Mortgage Payment Price Index is 19% HIGHER than in 2005 – Real Estate Decoded
• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.1% Below Peak. Price-to-rent index is 7.0% below recent peak – Calculated Risk
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in September to New High; Up 5.2% Year-over-year. Austin Prices Down 11.0% from Peak Seasonally Adjusted – Calculated Risk
• U.S. Home Prices Rose to Record in August. Case-Shiller index rises 2.6% from a year earlier, as shortage of homes for sale kept the market competitive – Wall Street Journal 

On the US—other developments:    

• A New White House Plan to Create Affordable Housing: Convert Empty Office Buildings. The Biden administration is freeing up resources to help turn offices into apartments. – Bloomberg
• Homeownership Rate Stays at 66% – NAHB
• ‘Lock-in Effect’ Not the Only Reason for Housing Supply Woes – Fannie Mae
• Saying ‘Yes’ to Solve the Affordable Housing Crisis. A lack of affordable housing is exacerbating homelessness and hobbling economic competitiveness, yet efforts to build new housing regularly meet NIMBY pushback. Three Yale SOM alumni tackle the tough challenge of getting to yes. – Yale Insights
• September Private Residential Construction Spending Inches Up – NAHB
• Realtors found liable for $1.8 billion in damages in conspiracy to keep commissions high – CNN
• Rental Vacancy Picks Up, Homeownership Remains Steady – Realtor.com

On China:

• China Developer Country Garden Deemed in Default on Dollar Bond for First Time. Missed payment on interest is ‘event of default’: trustee note. Firm had warned it didn’t expect to make all future payments – Bloomberg
• HSBC chief says worst is over for China real estate. Crisis-hit sector had ‘deep’ correction but can now recover, says Noel Quinn – FT
• China’s Property Developers Cut Prices—and Homeowners Are Resisting. Local governments grapple with challenge of allowing home prices to fall – Wall Street Journal

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Economists tip property prices to rise 7pc in 2024 – Financial Review
• [Australia] Australian rental vacancy rate falls to record low, data shows. Limited supply and strong demand prompts national median weekly advertised rents to rise 14.6% over the year – The Guardian  
• [Australia] Australia rate risk grows as house prices jump and IMF chimes in – Reuters
• [Australia] Record property prices in multiple Australian cities with Sydney up 7.5% in past year. Economists say limited sales volumes and rising populations have more than made up for the dampening effect of higher interest rate – The Guardian
• [Canada] Immigration Support Backslides in Canada on Housing Crisis. More Canadians view there’s too much immigration, poll shows. Trudeau’s government to set new immigration targets Wednesday – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Housing to Be Part of Canada Immigration Plan as Criticism Grows. Government facing backlash over worsening home affordability. Minister set to announce new immigration targets on Wednesday – Bloomberg
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong housing: John Lee vows not to ‘target’ property prices, acknowledges conflicting interests of current, potential homeowners. Chief Executive John Lee says authorities will monitor property market closely and consider adjusting cooling measures. ‘People who haven’t bought a home are certainly hoping prices will fall, but those who already own property, on the other hand, are hoping prices will stay put,’ he says – South China Morning Post
• [United Kingdom] House prices fell in 80% of UK markets this year, says Zoopla. London and England’s southern and eastern regions worst affected as higher mortgage rates sap demand – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Why converting office space into flats won’t solve the housing crisis – The Conversation
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise unexpectedly on scarcity of supply, says Nationwide. Mortgage provider points to lack of properties for sale as it reports increase of 0.9% in October – FT