Housing View – November 17, 2023

Working papers and conferences:

  • Are Swedish House Prices Too High? Why the Price-to-Income Ratio Is a Misleading Indicator – NBER
  • Can Everyone Tap into the Housing Piggy Bank? Racial Disparities in Access to Home Equity – Philadelphia Fed
  • Exposure to Local Housing Markets and Bank Performance – SSRN
  • The Ins and Outs of Selling Houses: Understanding Housing-Market Volatility – SSRN  

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Another Reason Mortgage Rates will Fall. As rate vol dips and the yield curve steepens, prepayment risk will abate – Home Economics
  • Owning a Home Has Gotten Pricey, Fast. A Market Adjustment Is Coming. – Barron’s
  • Home Prices Could Come Down. What It Would Take. – Barron’s
  • First-Time Home Buyers Are Back in Force, Despite Higher Mortgage Rates – Barron’s
  • Home Prices Rose the Most in These Cheaper Cities—and Came Down in These Pricier Ones – Realtor.com
  • Renters: Results from the Zillow Consumer Housing Trends Report 2023 – Zillow 
  • Reassessing the ‘Amazon Effect’ on Home Prices in One U.S. Metro Area – Realtor.com
  • While All Inflation Feels Bad, Housing Inflation Is the Worst. For some, unaffordable homes undercut the American dream even more than high gasoline and food prices – Wall Street Journal

On the US—other developments:    

  • Are Institutional Investors a Problem in the Housing Market? – Cato
  • Time to take a wrecking ball to realtors’ fees in America. A court case is a first step to ending a racket – The Economist
  • The Housing Challenge – Richmond Fed
  • Housing is ‘unattainable’ for too many Americans: Fed’s BarkinYahoo Finance  
  • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November – Calculated Risk
  • 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October. Early Reporting Markets suggest some month-to-month increase in Sales in October, SAAR – Calculated Risk
  • Home Depot, Lowe’s may signal more pain from muted consumer spending, housing demand – Reuters
  • Here’s how much you need to make to afford a home in America – CNN
  • Are There Generational Gaps in Income and Homeownership? – St. Louis Fed
  • Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November – Calculated Risk
  • 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October. Markets reporting so far suggest sales close to 4 million SAAR in October – Calculated Risk
  • The Fed Has Put Our Housing Market in Jeopardy – New York Times
  • Americans are moving to smaller towns in the South. Enthusiasm for small-town living has outlived the pandemic – The Economist
  • October 2023 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
  • Housing Finance Watch – AEI
  • States reform regulations to support more housing production. States are re-examining how they regulate housing development as rents and mortgage prices increase – Minneapolis Fed

On China:

  • China Mulls $137 Billion of New Funds to Aid Housing Market. PBOC to inject cheap funds in phases through banks: people. Plan would mark a step-up in Beijing’s effort to boost economy – Bloomberg
  • China Credit Market Calm Belies Risks From Property Debt Crisis – Bloomberg
  • China’s property boost has to sway wary banks – Reuters
  • China Property Slump Deepens as Beijing Mulls More Stimulus. Investment in development fell 9.3% through first 10 months. Beijing plans 1 trillion yuan in housing financing package – Bloomberg
  • China Housing Woes Worsen as Prices Fall Most in Eight Years. Homebuyers are deterred by uncertain outlook, analyst says. Property slump is deepening despite stimulus measures – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Australia’s Housing Crunch Lures More Private Credit Lenders. Banks go cool on commercial property as capital rules tighten. Funds look to residential developments amid housing shortage – Bloomberg
  • [Australia] Australia’s Housing Crunch Lures More Private Credit Lenders. Banks go cool on commercial property as capital rules tighten. Funds look to residential developments amid housing shortage – Bloomberg
  • [Australia] Planning in reverse: Rethinking housing targets – New Geography
  • [Canada] Let’s stop calling it a housing crisis – Policy Options
  • [Canada] CMHC Eyes C$8.5 Billion Bond Sale as Soon as Next Week. Transaction would be done before government’s fall statement. Agency to issue 10-year bonds and floating rate 5-year bonds – Bloomberg
  • [Ecuador] Ecuador to Expand and Improve Housing for Poor and Vulnerable Populations – IDB
  • [Germany] German homebuilding collapse threatens wider economic damage. Once-thriving residential construction industry has slumped, posing drag on EU’s largest economy – FT
  • [Germany] No Balconies or Luxury Toilets: How This City Fought Soaring Rents and Lost. Rents are rising at a record pace in Berlin despite anti-gentrification rules and rental caps – Wall Street Journal
  • [Germany] Berlin’s renters face more misery as housing crisis deepens – Reuters
  • [Hungary] Hungary Starts Golden Visa Program for Real Estate Investors. Previous residency program was shut down after graft concerns. New iteration is part of bill that seeks to limit immigration – Bloomberg 
  • [Ireland] Dublin house prices decline by 1.9% as higher interest rates deter buyers. Latest CSO data highlights a fall-off in transactions in September – The Irish Times
  • [New Zealand] Upzoning New Zealand. New Zealand passed the most ambitious upzoning reforms in the world. Now comes the backlash. – Work in Progress
  • [Singapore] Singapore’s Housing Rally Is Set to End, Morgan Stanley Says. Home prices forecast to fall 3% in 2024, downturn may persist. City Developments, UOL drop on Morgan Stanley’s downgrades – Bloomberg
  • [Singapore] Swiss Real Estate Market Remains Vulnerable, Central Banker Says. Residential property prices have rallied to highest on record. SNB vice president reaffirms more rate hikes can’t be excluded – Bloomberg
  • [Sweden] Swedish Households’ Outlook on Housing Prices Fades Further – Reuters
  • [Sweden] Svensson says house price metrics ‘unreliable and misleading’ – Central Banking
  • [United Arab Emirates] Dubai’s Record Home Prices May Start to Fall by End of 2024, S&P Says. S&P sees mild price correction of 5% to 10% in 12 to 18 months. Dubai’s property market has been fueled by influx of newcomers – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] New mortgage deal falls below 5% in ‘watershed moment’ for UK homeowners. Nationwide’s two-year fixed rate deal offered at 4.99% as lenders jostle for customers – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] Housing market downturn pushes UK estate agents to consolidate. Shrinking market offers opportunities for larger players looking to move into lettings – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK Home Asking Prices Are Falling Slowly But Surely. At least affordability is edging in the right direction. – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices suffer first annual fall since 2012. Rental charges rise at record pace as high borrowing costs hit both would-be buyers and landlords – FT

Posted by at 9:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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