Housing View – November 3, 2023

On cross-country:

  • Europe’s Great Housing Crisis Is Only Getting Started. A collapse in home building threatens to intensify shortages for years to come – Bloomberg
  • We Should Look to Vienna for Answers to Our Housing Crisis. Vienna’s social housing triumphs show that when governments invest in housing as a human right, they can combat homelessness and inequality. It is an inspiration for what cities can accomplish if they elevate human needs over the pursuit of private profits. – Jacobin

Working papers and conferences:

  • Housing inequality and how fiscal policy shapes it: Evidence from Belgian real estate – SSRN
  • Young Workers, Jobs-Housing Balance, and Commute Distance: Findings from Two High-Housing-Cost U.S. Regions SSRN
  • Housing Prices and Rents in Australia 1980-2023: Facts, Explanations and Outcomes SSRN
  • High Temperature, Climate Change and Real Estate Prices – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Fannie and Freddie: Single-Family Mortgage Delinquency Rate Mostly Unchanged in September. CoreLogic: US Serious Mortgage Delinquency Rate Drops to All-Time Low in August – Calculated Risk
  • US new home sales scale 19-month high as median price drops – Reuters
  • Surging US mortgage rates halt rally in homebuilder stocks. Shares of leading developers sag as demand for new houses starts to falter – FT
  • Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.6% year-over-year in August; New all-time High
  • “Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index … rose 5.6 percent from August 2022 to August 2023 ” – Calculated Risk
  • Nationally, the Real Mortgage Payment Price Index is 19% HIGHER than in 2005 – Real Estate Decoded
  • Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.1% Below Peak. Price-to-rent index is 7.0% below recent peak – Calculated Risk
  • Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in September to New High; Up 5.2% Year-over-year. Austin Prices Down 11.0% from Peak Seasonally Adjusted – Calculated Risk
  • U.S. Home Prices Rose to Record in August. Case-Shiller index rises 2.6% from a year earlier, as shortage of homes for sale kept the market competitive – Wall Street Journal 

On the US—other developments:    

  • A New White House Plan to Create Affordable Housing: Convert Empty Office Buildings. The Biden administration is freeing up resources to help turn offices into apartments. – Bloomberg
  • Homeownership Rate Stays at 66% – NAHB
  • ‘Lock-in Effect’ Not the Only Reason for Housing Supply Woes – Fannie Mae
  • Saying ‘Yes’ to Solve the Affordable Housing Crisis. A lack of affordable housing is exacerbating homelessness and hobbling economic competitiveness, yet efforts to build new housing regularly meet NIMBY pushback. Three Yale SOM alumni tackle the tough challenge of getting to yes. – Yale Insights
  • September Private Residential Construction Spending Inches Up – NAHB
  • Realtors found liable for $1.8 billion in damages in conspiracy to keep commissions high – CNN
  • Rental Vacancy Picks Up, Homeownership Remains Steady – Realtor.com

On China:

  • China Developer Country Garden Deemed in Default on Dollar Bond for First Time. Missed payment on interest is ‘event of default’: trustee note. Firm had warned it didn’t expect to make all future payments – Bloomberg
  • HSBC chief says worst is over for China real estate. Crisis-hit sector had ‘deep’ correction but can now recover, says Noel Quinn – FT
  • China’s Property Developers Cut Prices—and Homeowners Are Resisting. Local governments grapple with challenge of allowing home prices to fall – Wall Street Journal

On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Economists tip property prices to rise 7pc in 2024 – Financial Review
  • [Australia] Australian rental vacancy rate falls to record low, data shows. Limited supply and strong demand prompts national median weekly advertised rents to rise 14.6% over the year – The Guardian  
  • [Australia] Australia rate risk grows as house prices jump and IMF chimes in – Reuters
  • [Australia] Record property prices in multiple Australian cities with Sydney up 7.5% in past year. Economists say limited sales volumes and rising populations have more than made up for the dampening effect of higher interest rate – The Guardian
  • [Canada] Immigration Support Backslides in Canada on Housing Crisis. More Canadians view there’s too much immigration, poll shows. Trudeau’s government to set new immigration targets Wednesday – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Housing to Be Part of Canada Immigration Plan as Criticism Grows. Government facing backlash over worsening home affordability. Minister set to announce new immigration targets on Wednesday – Bloomberg
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong housing: John Lee vows not to ‘target’ property prices, acknowledges conflicting interests of current, potential homeowners. Chief Executive John Lee says authorities will monitor property market closely and consider adjusting cooling measures. ‘People who haven’t bought a home are certainly hoping prices will fall, but those who already own property, on the other hand, are hoping prices will stay put,’ he says – South China Morning Post
  • [United Kingdom] House prices fell in 80% of UK markets this year, says Zoopla. London and England’s southern and eastern regions worst affected as higher mortgage rates sap demand – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] Why converting office space into flats won’t solve the housing crisis – The Conversation
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise unexpectedly on scarcity of supply, says Nationwide. Mortgage provider points to lack of properties for sale as it reports increase of 0.9% in October – FT

Posted by at 9:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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