Housing View – September 22, 2023

Working papers and conferences:

  • Heterogeneous Real Estate Agents and the Housing Cycle – NBER
  • Hot temperatures: A new player in housing markets – CEPR
  • The Impact of Institutional Investors on Homeownership and Neighborhood Access – SSRN
  • Urban Renewal and Inequality: Evidence from Chicago’s Public Housing Demolitions – SSRN
  • Covid-19 and Preferences for Subway Proximity: Evidence from the Chinese Housing Market SSRN
  • Effect of Housing Ownership on Young People’s Decisions to Enter into the Union of Marriage – SSRN
  • Upzoning with Strings Attached: Evidence from Seattle’s Affordable Housing Mandate – SSRN  

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • US Housing Starts Drop to Lowest Since 2020 While Permits Rise. Multifamily starts plunged to lowest since onset of pandemic. Single-family permits accelerated to fastest pace since 2022 – Bloomberg
  • Housing Starts Fall in August, Led by Declining Multi-Family Activity – Realtor.com
  • Why America’s housing crisis has hit a new inflection point – Axios
  • High Mortgage Rates Continue to Weaken Builder Confidence – NAHB   
  • August Housing Starts: Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction. Housing Starts Decreased to 1.283 million Annual Rate in August – Calculated Risk
  • Can Zillow’s Low Down Payment Program Help Thaw the Housing Market? Wharton’s Benjamin Keys weighs in on Zillow’s new 1% down payment loan, saying the fintech firm is trying to innovate in a housing market that just isn’t moving. – Wharton
  • Rentals won’t save the housing market – FT
  • US housing feels the squeeze from high mortgage rates. A tripling of US mortgage rates constrained both the demand and supply of housing, leaving existing home sales at post-GFC lows. Mortgage rates will rise further in the wake of the market’s reaction to yesterday’s Fed forecasts, further constraining activity – ING

On the US—other developments:

  • America’s Missing Empty Homes. Housing Vacancy Rates are at Historic Lows—Signaling an Extremely Supply-Constrained Market – Apricitas Economics
  • America’s Biggest Landlords Can’t Find Houses to Buy Either. Higher rates and few properties for sale have slowed Wall Street’s home buying – Wall Street Journal
  • Repeat after me: building any new homes reduces housing costs for all. Building unsubsidised housing pushes down rents and prices while freeing up cheaper properties – FT
  • Housing Market Update: Monthly Housing Costs Hit All-Time High, Deterring Would-Be Buyers – Redfin
  • Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September – Calculated Risk
  • 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in August. Local Markets Suggest August Sales Close to the July Sales Rate – Calculated Risk
  • 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in August. California Home Sales Down 18.9% YoY in August – Calculated Risk
  • This racist US housing policy that tried to fix poverty is a massive failure. Moving low-income, Black people into ‘better’ neighborhoods splits up communities and does not solve poverty – The Guardian
  • Flawed US Home-Loan System Neglects the Buyers Who Need It Most. Federal Home Loan Banks have a stated mission of supporting affordable housing. But community lenders have a tougher time getting access to funds. – Bloomberg
  • Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August and Some New Household/Housing Stock Data – Calculated Risk
  • Where 20 years of new housing was built in Washington, DC—and where it wasn’t – Brookings
  • NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.04 million SAAR in August. Median Prices Increased 3.9% YoY in August – Calculated Risk

On China:

  • An Even Bigger Housing Crisis Threatens China’s Economy. Two years after Evergrande’s fall, distressed property giant Country Garden could create bigger problems – Wall Street Journal
  • China’s property revival plan threatened by stand-off over old neighbourhoods. Beijing turns to past playbook of redeveloping poorer areas in hopes of revitalising troubled sector – FT
  • China’s property price caps have two sharp edges – Reuters
  • The climate upside of China’s real estate downturn – Reuters
  • China economy best revived by easing of property restrictions. Reversal of measures that have progressively stifled the homes market has removed the need for a major stimulus package – South China Morning Post

On other countries:

  • [Australia] Experts debunk myth that Chinese buyers drive up Australian property prices – The Straits Times
  • [Australia] Housing’s ‘Vicious Spiral’ Drags Australia Into Deepening Crisis. The supply of rental homes is shrinking fast and there’s little sign of relief on the horizon. – Bloomberg
  • [Australia] Economists Aren’t Buying Australia’s Ambitious Housing Plans – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Housing Investors Are Getting Flushed Out as Canada’s Rates Rise. As small-time landlords are squeezed, so are renters. It could all signal a fundamental realignment of the country’s housing landscape. – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Trudeau Cuts Tax on Rental Builds, Pushes Grocers on Pricing. Canada’s prime minister is under fire for soaring costs. Suite of affordability measures unveiled ahead of fall session – Bloomberg
  • [Denmark] Why Denmark’s Housing Market Works Better than Ours. Danish borrowers can buy back their loans at market prices – Aziz Sunderji
  • [India] India’s property market is ready for take-off. A clean-up by Narendra Modi’s government shows signs of success – The Economist
  • [Ireland] Dublin house prices fall at sharpest rate in three years. Irish price inflation slows to 1.5% as mortgage costs take the heat out of property market – The Irish Times
  • [South Korea] South Korea’s Central Bank Warns of Overpriced Housing Market, Excessive Debt – Bloomberg
  • [South Korea] South Korea house prices climb for second month in August – Reuters
  • [Switzerland] Google Recruiting Propels Zurich Home Prices Past London, Paris. Tax breaks and low interest rates have made the Swiss financial hub one of Europe’s hottest housing markets. – Bloomberg
  • [Turkey] Where House Prices Almost Doubled in a Year – Wall Street Journal
  • [United Kingdom] RICS Survey Shows UK Housing Slump Worsens – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Creep Up On-Month But Below the Usual Annual Trend – Wall Street Journal
  • [United Kingdom] UK Rents Surge at Record Pace as Home Sellers Lift Asking Prices. Rightmove report shows property asking prices tick higher. Figures show inflationary forces prompting BOE to raise rates – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK homes: data shows supply squeeze will worsen. England’s planning drought for housing projects merely stores up problems – FT

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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