The Unassuming Economist

Source: VoxEU CEPR

The informal sector, which accounts for nearly one-third of the GDP and employment in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs), has not only been the worst affected by the Covid-19 pandemic but is now also threatening to dampen economic recovery. Three features of the informal sector have compounded the damage of Covid-19 on activity: (i) their predominant presence in the service sector, (ii) limited savings and access to social safety nets, and (iii) the lack of effective policy support (Ohnsorge and Yu 2021).

This column assesses the impact of the pandemic on job losses in the informal sector of both manufacturing and service sectors of EMDEs and the impact of support policies rolled out by governments. Thus, recommendations call for facilitating access to finance for small firms, adopting cash transfer programs in the short run for countries with larger poor populations (Furceri, Loungani, Ostry, and Pizzuto, 2020), and using technology to reach the poor and informal workers.

Source: VoxEU CEPR

“Education, then, beyond all other devices of human origin, is the great equalizer of the conditions of men, the balance wheel of the social machinery.”

-Horace Mann, 1848

Quite ironically, however, the pandemic-induced school closures and other aspects of remote education pose the threat of deep and long-lasting inequalities. This column argues that channels operating through schools, peer effects, and parental investments have all contributed to massively growing educational inequality during the Covid-19 crisis. Among 9th graders, children from low-income neighborhoods in the US are predicted to suffer a learning loss equivalent to almost half a point on the four-point GPA scale, whereas children from high-income neighborhoods remain unscathed.

The outbreak of the novel Coronavirus, or COVID-19, has exacerbated economic and social inequalities. Several studies have tried to capture the impact of the same using extensive qualitative and quantitative data, spanning diverse categories like economic backgrounds, geographical regions, sex, caste, color, and other such social identities, inter alia.

The NBER paper, Inequality in the Times of a Pandemic (2022), by Stefanie Stantcheva, maps findings “related to inequalities across the income distribution, sectors and regions, gender, and inequalities in education inputs for children from different socioeconomic backgrounds”.

On similar lines but delving deeper on the issue of income inequalities, the paper, Epidemics, pandemics and income inequality (2022) in Health Economics Review attempts to understand how the outbreak of diseases like the Coronavirus, Ebola, Avian flu, etc., have impacted income distributions in the first two decades of the 21st century. The paper develops a model that indicates a positive association between these health crises and income inequality. To empirically test theoretical predictions, it explores the effect on the Gini coefficient of a dummy variable that indicates the occurrence of an epidemic or a pandemic in a country in a given year and the number of deaths per 100,000. To properly address potential endogeneity, the authors implement a Three-Stage-Least Squares technique. The estimation shows that the number of deaths per 100,000 population variable has a statistically significant positive effect on the Gini coefficient, especially when COVID-19 data is included.

Laurence M. Ball of the Johns Hopkins University, and Daniel Leigh, Prachi Mishra, and Antonio Spilimbergo of the International Monetary Fund write about the core inflation rate in the US in a paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

Abstract:

“Large price changes in industries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic have caused erratic fluctuations in the U.S. headline inflation rate. This paper compares alternative approaches to filtering out the transitory effects of these industry price changes and measuring the underlying or core level of inflation over 2020-2021. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of core, the inflation rate excluding food and energy prices, has performed poorly: over most of 2020-21, it is almost as volatile as headline inflation. Measures of core that exclude a fixed set of additional industries, such as the Atlanta Fed’s sticky-price inflation rate, have been less volatile, but the least volatile have been measures that filter out large price changes in any industry, such as the Cleveland Fed’s median inflation rate and the Dallas Fed’s trimmed mean inflation rate. These core measures have followed smooth paths, drifting down when the economy was weak in 2020 and then rising as the economy has rebounded.”

Click here to read the full paper.

In a paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research, authors Arpit Gupta of NYU Stern School of Business, and Anup Malani and Bartosz Woda of the University of Chicago Law School write about inequality in India during the COVID-19 pandemic. The abstract of the paper is as follows:

“We use a large, representative panel data set from India with monthly data on household finances to examine the incidence of economic harms during the COVID pandemic. We observe a sharp spike in poverty, peaking during India’s sharp but short lockdown. However, there was a striking decrease in income inequality outside the lockdown. There was a smaller decrease in consumption inequality, likely due to consumption smoothing. Evidence supports two mechanisms for the decline in income inequality: the capital income of top-quartile earners covaries more with aggregate income, and demand for labor fell more for higher quartiles.”

Click here to read the full paper.