The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Karan Bhasin, and Prakash Loungani:

“This paper introduces a hierarchical Large Language Model (LLM) framework for the automated identification of narrative fiscal shocks. We develop a multi-stage architecture to extract austerity episodes from IMF Article IV reports (2004–2020) for 17 OECD countries. Relative to manual coding, our approach improves replicability and auditability by generating a documented sequence of classification steps. Benchmarking against Adler et al. (2024), we find that the LLM-based classification aligns closely with the narrative benchmark, while differing on a small subset of episodes. Local projection estimates indicate that LLM-identified shocks are associated with smaller estimated multipliers than the narrative benchmark, with the difference linked in large part to differences in shock persistence and endogeneity.”

From a paper by Chandan Sethi, and Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra:

“This paper examines whether inflation targeting (IT) policies improve the macroeconomic performance of 28 Asian economies from 1998 to 2023. Specifically, it assesses the impact of IT on inflation, GDP growth, exchange rates and unemployment. The study employs two econometric methods: propensity score matching (PSM) and panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE). The findings suggest that adopting an IT regime can significantly reduce inflation and exchange rate volatility. However, IT has no significant effect on GDP growth. In contrast, results reveal a positive, statistically significant impact on unemployment, suggesting potential short-run labour-market trade-offs associated with disinflationary policies. These findings contribute to the ongoing debate on the effectiveness of IT by highlighting that its impact on real economic variables may vary across estimation approaches and underlying assumptions.”

From a paper by Jan Čapek | Jakub Chalmovianský | Vlastimil Reichel:

“This study systematically evaluates forecasting performance of 11 Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) and 2 Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) models during recessions and expansions in the US and the euro area. Results show that no single model dominates: parsimonious models perform well in stable periods and at short horizons, while richer DSGE specifications with financial frictions, flexible inflation targeting, or labor market dynamics improve forecasts during recessions. BVARs excel in interest rate forecasting, especially in expansions. Crisis‐specific extensions, such as COVID‐related shocks, yield temporary gains. Forecast accuracy depends on the economic state, variable, horizon, and evaluation metric, underscoring the need for a diversified, context‐dependent modeling toolkit.”

From a paper by Georgios Chortareas, Anastasios Evgenidis, and Apostolos Fasianos:

“This paper explores whether the transmission from monetary policy to income inequality may depend on the adoption of Inflation Targeting (IT) regimes. Using an interacted panel VAR, we find that expansionary monetary policy shocks reduce income inequality in countries that have switched to IT regimes. In contrast, in non-IT regimes the same shock is associated with a short-lived increase in income inequality. A decomposition of transmission channels indicates that the employment channel is the primary equalizing mechanism under IT, as expansionary shocks generate stronger improvements in labor market conditions. The financial channel operates in the opposite direction but is quantitatively smaller. We further show that the inequality-reducing effects of monetary policy are not replicated by other institutional features often associated with credibility, such as central bank transparency or central bank independence. Our findings are robust to alternative identification schemes, broader classifications of IT regimes, controls for self-selection into IT adoption, and to conditioning on different inflation environments.”

On cross-country:

• Where Luxury Housing Prices Surged the Most in 2025 – Visual Capitalist

Working papers and conferences:

• Filling the Gaps with MICE: Addressing Missing Data in Real Estate Price Indices – NBER
• Characteristics of a Sufficient Statistic to Measure City Housing Prices – NBER
• Rental Prices and the Cost of Living in the United States, 1914–2006 – NBER
• Does Real Estate Expansion Hurt Manufacturing Employment: Evidence from China – Labour Economics

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Australia’s home price growth hits lowest in over a year, led by falls in big cities – Reuters
• [New Zealand] New Zealand House Prices Lack Momentum as Buyers Sidelined – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices lack momentum as buyers sidelined. While they rose for a third straight month in April, the increase was just 0.1% from March: property consultancy – The Business Times

On other countries:  

• [Canada] A New Blueprint: How Modern Methods of Construction can help solve Canada’s housing crisis – RBC
• [Canada] Montreal-area home sales fall 7% in April as rising prices weigh on demand: board – CMT
• [Canada] Millennials in the Canadian housing market: An intergenerational comparison – Government of Canada
• [Estonia] How will Estonia’s declining population affect the property market? – ERR
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong Property Shares Rally as Morgan Stanley Feeds Optimism – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK house price rise defies economic impact of Iran war. Unexpected increase in April supported by relative strength in household finances – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Rose Again in April, Nationwide Says – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] ‘Blue urbanism’ — a key to England’s housing undersupply? Canal-side developments in east London, Bristol, Liverpool and elsewhere are helping to meet building targets — but it’s not all smooth waters – FT