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Housing View – April 12, 2024

On cross-country:

  • Housing is One Reason Not All Countries Feel Same Pinch of Higher Interest Rates. Effects may be delayed in some countries: if interest rates remain higher for longer, homeowners will likely feel their effects as mortgage rates adjust – IMF
  • Monetary policy, mortgages, and the housing market – VoxEU
  • Housing – probably important. Monetary transmission and millennial trolling from the IMF – FT
  • A new dataset on housing affordability – VoxEU
  • Reshaping the housing market: The enduring effects of the pandemic – VoxEU
  • European house prices fall for first time in a decade. Strong growth in some eastern and southern countries was offset by declines in many northern EU states – FT
  • House prices down, rents up between Q3 and Q4 2023 – Eurostat
  • High mortgage rates lead to rise in lending scams. More prospective homebuyers are falling victim to offers of financing that are too good to be true – FT  


Working papers and conferences:

  • Conference: Not your typical cycle: Where does real estate go from here? On May 8 – Dallas Fed
  • Localized Housing Prices by Nonbanks – SSRN
  • Understanding Intracity Housing Market Dynamics: A Hybrid Econometric and Machine Learning Approach – SSRN
  • Housing Affordability: The Land Use Regulation link to Informal Tenure in Developing Countries – SSRN
  • Inheritance Dynamics and Housing Price Fluctuations: Evidence from the China Household Finance Survey – SSRN


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Fed’s Goolsbee says housing price pressures pose biggest inflation risk – Reuters
  • Is housing overvalued or undervalued? Here’s Moody’s assessment of 403 housing markets. The overall U.S. housing market is ‘overvalued’ by 13.9%, finds Moody’s. Here’s what that means. – Fast Company
  • Inflation Stays Hot as Housing Cost Growth Persists – NAHB
  • Most Expensive Housing Markets in the US Get Unexpected Rebel. Ex-Fox News host barges into debate on California home prices. Lawmakers, billionaires push fixes for greater affordability – Bloomberg
  • Housing Costs Continued to Rise Faster Than Before the Pandemic. It will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to rein in inflation fully if shelter costs continue to run hot. – New York Times
  • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March. Early Reports Suggest NAR reported Sales will be down from February – Calculated Risk
  • 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March. Inventory Continues to Surge in Florida – Calculated Risk


On the US—other developments:    

  • US Homes Face Costly Retrofits for Induction Stoves, EV Chargers. New homes in the US may not be “electrical ready” after an international standards agency excluded building electrification measures from its latest energy code. – Bloomberg
  • 2024 Realtor.com Housing Market and Electric Vehicle Report – Realtor.com
  • Biden’s Housing Agenda Needs a Renovation. If the president really wants to make homes more affordable, then there’s a lot more he could do. – Bloomberg
  • Property Taxes on Single-Family Homes Up 7 Percent Across U.S. in 2023, to $363 Billion – ATTOM
  • How a Pandemic Boom Led to a ‘Property Tax Mess’ in Colorado. A surge of new residents into Rocky Mountain states drove up home prices. The result was property tax increases of 40 percent or more for some of those already there. – New York Times
  • A New York Housing Deal Could Be Close. What’s Holding It Up? The deal could clear the way for the construction of new homes and make it more difficult for landlords to evict renters, if lawmakers in Albany can find a compromise. – New York Times
  • Only 4 Housing Markets Have Fully Recovered From the Pandemic—Here’s Where They Are – Realtor.com
  • Public Housing Is Social Housing. The housing crisis is a calamity that can no longer be ignored. AOC and Bernie Sanders’s newly reintroduced Green New Deal for Public Housing highlights the importance of deeply affordable and generously funded public housing as key to solving this crisis. – Jacobin
  • What people are sacrificing to afford housing – Axios 
  • Residential Building Wages See Fastest Growth in More Than Two Years – NAHB
  • Households May Finally Be Adjusting to Higher Mortgage Rates. Survey Shows Greater Optimism Toward Homebuying and Home-Selling. Conditions, Even as Pessimism Toward Rates Jumps – Fannie Mae 
  • Doctors Making $350,000 Are Struggling to Find Long Island Homes. North Fork median home prices are approaching $1 million. Governor Hochul is attempting legislation to build housing – Bloomberg
  • Housing market affordability is so strained that Home Depot is selling tiny homes for $63,000. Home Depot is following in the footsteps of Sears, which sold over 70,000 mail-order homes between 1908 and 1942. – Fast Company 
  • An Update on the House Price Battle Royale: Low Inventory vs Affordability – Calculated Risk
  • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2024 – Calculated Risk


On China:

  • Chinese Cities Further Ease Homebuying Policies to Spur Sales – Bloomberg


On other countries:  

  • [Australia] ‘No family, no friends, no backups’: is moving to regional Australia really a fix for the housing crisis? Prospective home owners are often lured to regional areas, but some who have moved say it comes with hidden costs – The Guardian
  • [Australia] Why one segment of the housing market is about to get even hotter – Financial Review
  • [Canada] Canada’s housing crunch is hurting our labour markets – The Globe and Mail
  • [Canada] The Great Rebuild. Seven ways to fix Canada’s housing shortage – RBC
  • [Canada] New housing measures to focus on supply, avoid ‘ginning up demand’: housing minister – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Canada homebuilding down for third year, housing agency predicts – Reuters
  • [Canada] Trudeau Hints at Mortgage Reforms as He Rolls Out Housing Plan – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Bank of Canada leaves spring housing market in ‘holding pattern’ – Yahoo Finance
  • [Hong Kong] A new normal: are the wild days of Hong Kong’s housing market a thing of the past? Strong supply and elevated interest rates mean house prices are unlikely to return to the kind of breakneck growth seen in the past, analysts say. ‘A healthy market is where there is supply, and property prices rise with inflation,’ says Donald Choi, CEO of Chinachem – South China Morning Post
  • [Ireland] Incoming Irish Premier Sees Housing, Migration as Priorities. Harris calls strength of the Irish economy a ‘success’. Coalition government faces a growing challenge from Sinn Fein – Bloomberg
  • [Korea] S. Korea’s housing market stabilizing, Yoon says – The Korea Herald
  • [Poland] Polish house prices continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace – Global Property Guide
  • [Slovenia] Slovenia’s house price growth moderating – Global Property Guide
  • [Spain] Spain to scrap ‘golden visas’ for foreign real estate investors – Reuters
  • [Spain] Spain axes ‘golden visa’ scheme to curb property speculation. Spain residency scheme introduced in 2013 was popular with wealthy Chinese and Russian applicants. Soaring house prices have become a major problem for many Spaniards, particularly in major cities – South China Morning Post
  • [Spain] Spain’s house price growth continues, despite falling demand Global Property Guide
  • Al Jazeera
  • [Sweden] Swedish Home Prices Extend Gains as Market Shows Signs of Thaw – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices fell in March for first time in 6 months, says Halifax. Figures from mortgage provider add to signs of unevenness in property market recovery – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK housing market recovery gains more ground, RICS survey shows – Reuters

On cross-country:

  • Housing is One Reason Not All Countries Feel Same Pinch of Higher Interest Rates. Effects may be delayed in some countries: if interest rates remain higher for longer, homeowners will likely feel their effects as mortgage rates adjust – IMF
  • Monetary policy, mortgages, and the housing market – VoxEU
  • Housing – probably important. Monetary transmission and millennial trolling from the IMF – FT
  • A new dataset on housing affordability – VoxEU
  • Reshaping the housing market: The enduring effects of the pandemic – VoxEU
  • European house prices fall for first time in a decade.

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Housing View – April 5, 2024

On cross-country:

  • The painful rise in home insurance costs. Climate resilience efforts are essential to keep a check on policy premiums – FT
  • Event: Innovation in Affordable Housing: Lessons from the CAHF 2023 yearbook on April 4 – African Union for Housing Finance


Working papers and conferences:

  • The American Housing Finance System: Structure, Evolution, and Implications – SSRN
  • Addressing Housing Shortages Through Tax Abatement – SSRN
  • Heterogeneous effects of a foreign buyer tax on house prices in New South Wales – Journal of Economic Geography
  • Exploring Housing Networks and Driving Forces: A Global Perspective – SSRN
  • Effects of Climate Change on House Prices In Outdoor Tourism Destinations – SSRN
  • Non-Manipulable House Exchange Under (Minimum) Equilibrium Prices SSRN
  • New York City Relaxing Environmental Review Rules for Housing Construction – SSRN
  • Housing Market, Extrapolative Belief, and Entrepreneurship: Micro Evidence from China – SSRN
  • Putting a Ceiling on Housing Costs: The Aftermath of Constraining Rent Escalation in Korea – SSRN
  • Balancing the scales: How housing supply regulation shapes household wealth inequality in China – Cities


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Biden administration to cap rent increases for some affordable housing units. The move was hailed by tenant advocates and criticized by others in the housing industry – Washington Post
  • Housing Market 2024: Economists Predict Lower Mortgage Rates — Is It Time for You to Buy? – Yahoo Finance
  • ICE Mortgage Monitor: The Impact of “Golden-Handcuffs” on Mortgage Payments – Calculated Risk
  • Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 5.9% Year-over-year. Over the last 3 months, this index has only increased at a 1.7% annual rate – Calculated Risk
  • Where home prices are falling — and which housing markets are most overvalued, according to three experts. Expect home-price growth to slow, or even fall in these areas — but not crash, one economist says – Market Watch
  • Moderate House Price Increases Expected as Market Adjusts to High Rates – Yahoo Finance
  • This interactive map shows what’s really happened to home prices since rates spiked. U.S. home prices have been in a period of sideways movement following the 2022 mortgage rate shock. But it varies by market. – Fast Company
  • A typical home now costs $1 million and up in more than 500 U.S. cities. California, New York, and New Jersey are home to the most “million-dollar” cities in American – Quartz  
  • How to Kill New York’s Rental Housing Market. Albany’s Good Cause Eviction proposal is universal rent control. – Wall Street Journal
  • Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
  • The Multifamily Supply Surge—and Credit Crunch. US Multifamily Housing Completions are at 50-Year Highs, But Tighter Credit Has Significantly Reduced Starts & Permits – Apricitas Economics


On the US—other developments:    

  • The Newest Home-Buying Puzzle: What to Pay Your Real-Estate Agent. A legal settlement that stands to do away with longstanding real-estate commission rules is rewriting the playbook for home buyers – Wall Street Journal
  • The real estate industry on trial – NPR
  • Political Leaders Are Finally Responding to the Housing Crisis. They Need to Move Faster. The fear and anger at rising rents and unattainable homeownership has finally gotten policymakers’ attention. – Politico
  • The housing market is thawing as an increasing number of ‘mortgage lock’ homes go up for sale, JPMorgan says – Yahoo Finance 
  • You can’t afford to buy a house. Biden knows that. The housing crisis is already shaping the president’s reelection campaign. – Vox
  • Here is how much household income you’ll need to afford the median-priced home in every US state – CNN
  • The Boomer-Millennial Housing Battle Cools. And other takeaways from NAR’s Generational Trends Report – Home Economics
  • Home-Buyer Preferences Shift as Affordability Challenges Remain – NAHB
  • February Gains for Single-Family Construction Spending – NAHB
  • Talking “toilets, taxes, and tenants”: Challenges mount for apartment owners in Twin Cities area. Conversations with leaders in the multifamily rental sector indicate that risks to their industry endanger future investments in housing supply and affordability – Minneapolis Fed
  • Multigenerational housing is coming back in a big way. Americans used to live in multigenerational homes. We’re starting to, again. – Vox
  • US Homeowners See Biggest Property Tax Rise in Five Years. Levies rose 6.9% in 2023, nearly twice the gain a year earlier. Report from ATTOM shows average tax climbed to $4,062 – Bloomberg
  • Home Depot has bet $18bn on US housing market paralysis. Acquisition of building products supplier SRS Distribution will greatly expand company’s reach among contractors and builders – FT
  • March 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com

On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Australia’s Home Prices Extend Gains Even as Elevated Costs Bite – Bloomberg
  • [Australia] CoreLogic Home Value Index rises 1.6% in March quarter, adding around $12k to dwelling values – Core Logic
  • [Australia] Australian house prices hit record high for fifth consecutive month. CoreLogic data shows prices rose 0.6% in March while separate index from PropTrack produces similar results – The Guardian
  • [Australia] Australia Apartment Permits Hit 12-Year Low Due to Cost Blowouts. Building approvals are failing to keep up with housing demand. Government aim to build 1.2 million homes by mid-2029 in doubt – Bloomberg
  • [Australia] The relentless rise of Australian house prices – Financial Review
  • [Canada] Canada launches $6 bln housing fund in bid to quell housing crisis – Reuters
  • [Canada] Trudeau Offers Billions to Boost Homebuilding, With Strings Attached. PM pledges C$5B in infrastructure funds in exchange for reform. Policy puts his government directly in conflict with Ontario – Bloomberg
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong New Home Sales Hit 11-Year High After Property Curbs Removed. New developments, government policy spur increased purchases. CK Asset’s Blue Coast had 50 times more bidders than units – Bloomberg
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand Posts First Annual Gain in House Prices in 18 Months. CoreLogic data shows values rise for sixth straight month. ‘High mortgage interest rates remain a big challenge’ – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] How council taxes and the budget are pushing owners to de-list second homes in England and Wales. Wales led the way in tackling the problem of empty properties and priced-out locals – and now Jeremy Hunt has weighed in – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] Tenants are trapped in a collapsing housing system. Social housing tenants are suffering just as much as those in the private rented sector, writes Suzanne Muna. – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall for first time in three months amid ‘subdued’ market. Average price of home down 0.2% from February to March, to £261,142, says Nationwide – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] London’s Luxury Homeowners Who Bought at the Top Aren’t Selling. Only 3% of people who purchased prime properties in 2014 when price growth peaked have sold their homes. – Bloomberg

On cross-country:

  • The painful rise in home insurance costs. Climate resilience efforts are essential to keep a check on policy premiums – FT
  • Event: Innovation in Affordable Housing: Lessons from the CAHF 2023 yearbook on April 4 – African Union for Housing Finance

Working papers and conferences:

  • The American Housing Finance System: Structure, Evolution, and Implications – SSRN
  • Addressing Housing Shortages Through Tax Abatement – SSRN
  • Heterogeneous effects of a foreign buyer tax on house prices in New South Wales – Journal of Economic Geography
  • Exploring Housing Networks and Driving Forces: A Global Perspective – SSRN
  • Effects of Climate Change on House Prices In Outdoor Tourism Destinations – SSRN
  • Non-Manipulable House Exchange Under (Minimum) Equilibrium Prices SSRN
  • New York City Relaxing Environmental Review Rules for Housing Construction – SSRN
  • Housing Market,

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Housing View – March 30, 2024

Links to the week’s top housing market stories.

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • How real estate commission changes could make buying and selling a home cheaper – PBS
  • I’m a Realtor. NAR settlement may not be as good for home buyers and sellers as they think – USA Today
  • The housing market is thawing as an increasing number of ‘mortgage lock’ homes go up for sale, JPMorgan says – Business Insider
  • The Fastest Rising U.S. Housing Markets in 2024 – Visual Capitalist
  • House Prices Are Rising Fastest in These Five Cities – Newsweek

On Europe and rest of the world:

  • The state of the housing market in the euro area – ECB Economic Bulletin
  • Where is housing most expensive in Europe and how much are people willing to spend? – Euronews
  • London’s Luxury Property Market Turns a Corner – Mansion Global
  • Australia’s Gold Coast Is Primed for a Long-Term Real Estate Boom—and There’s Still Time for Buyers to Get In – Mansion Global

Links to the week’s top housing market stories.

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • How real estate commission changes could make buying and selling a home cheaper – PBS
  • I’m a Realtor. NAR settlement may not be as good for home buyers and sellers as they think – USA Today
  • The housing market is thawing as an increasing number of ‘mortgage lock’

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:05 PM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Housing View – March 22, 2024

On cross-country:

  • Housing Is in Crisis All Around the World – Bloomberg


Working papers and conferences:

  • All That Glitters? Golden Visas and Real Estate – IZA
  • The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates – FHFA
  • Why Not Tax It? The Effects of Property Taxes on House Price and Homeownership – SSRN
  • The impact of prudential regulations on the UK housing market and economy: insights from an agent-based model – Bank of England
  • Book: When Housing Markets Meet Shadow Banking: Bubbles, Mortgages, Securitization, and Fintech – Amazon


On the US—reactions to the real estate group settlement:    

  • The 6% commission on buying or selling a home is gone after Realtors association agrees to seismic settlement – CNN
  • Powerful Realtor Group Agrees to Slash Commissions to Settle Lawsuits. The National Association of Realtors will pay $418 million in damages and will amend several rules that housing experts say will drive down housing costs. – New York Times 
  • A major settlement could spell an end to 6% real estate commissions – NPR
  • 4 Ways a Settlement Could Change the Housing Industry. The influential National Association of Realtors agreed to make several changes to its policies to settle class-action lawsuits brought by home sellers who say they were forced to pay inflated commissions to real estate agents. – New York Times
  • Realtor settlement could bring ‘seismic shift’ to housing market – The Hill
  • Housing Market Upended By Commission Lawsuit – Newsweek 
  • Zillow, Redfin, and other real estate stocks sank after a big settlement to limit broker fees. The agreement with the National Association of Realtors tightens rules around commissions in the home buying process – Quartz
  • Home buying costs could fall in big US real estate group settlement – Reuters
  • US home sale fees set to fall after real estate group settles lawsuits. National Association of Realtors has agreed to pay $418mn in damages in a deal that sent brokerage shares lower – FT
  • The way Americans buy and sell homes is about to get turned on its head – CNN
  • Opinion: How to make sure the 6% home commission really does die – CNN
  • The Realtors’ Big Defeat. A settlement in the real estate industry is a case study of a central flaw in free-market economic theory. – New York Times 
  • Five Ways Buying and Selling a House Could Change. The National Association of Realtors has agreed to change its policies to settle several lawsuits brought by home sellers — a move that could reduce commissions. – New York Times
  • Realtors Reckon With a Seismic Shift to How They Get Paid. Some agents predict workarounds will protect their commissions, while others head for the exits – Wall Street Journal
  • A $418 Million Settlement Could Change U.S. Home Buying. But Who Benefits? – NPR
  • What Comes Next for the Housing Market? The Federal Reserve still expects to cut rates this year, and a change in selling practices could shake up home shopping. Here’s the outlook. – New York Times
  • Real estate agents face an overdue reckoning. From lower commissions to falling mortgage rates, purchasing property may become easier – FT
  • Could a major lawsuit against realtors mean lower home prices? What the National Association of Realtors settlement means for buyers and sellers. – Vox  


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Can Mortgage Rates Still Fall to 6%? The housing market depends on it – Home Economics
  • It’s Hard to Beat That 7% Mortgage Rate. These Charts Show Why. The usual workarounds for high borrowing rates aren’t helping buyers much – Wall Street Journal
  • U.S. Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – March 2024 – Freddie Mac
  • Private Equity Wants Your Credit Card Debt. And Car Loan. And Mortgage. The private-credit craze is spreading to asset-based lending and the American consumer – Wall Street Journal
  • The rent is too damn high. And Joe Biden knows it. The president has raised concerns in private and made a push in public. But his tool kit is limited. – Politico
  • “The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates” – Calculated Risk
  • Moderating Interest Rates, Pent-up Demand Push Single-Family Starts Higher – NAHB
  • Higher Mortgage Rate Forecast Leads to Decline in 2024 Home Sales Expectations. Recent Inflation Data Likely to Keep Mortgage Rates ‘Higher for Longer’ than Previously Forecast – Fannie Mae
  • Single Family Starts Up 35% Year-over-year in February; Multi-Family Starts Down Sharply. Housing Starts Increased to 1.521 million Annual Rate in February – Calculated Risk  
  • Singh’s Take: Housing Construction Ramps Up After January Slowdown. Economists say the rebound is mostly due to improved weather – Wall Street Journal
  • US single-family housing starts, permits near two-year highs – Reuters
  • Ten economic facts about rental housing – Brookings
  • DOJ escalates price-fixing probe on housing market. The investigation adds to the legal difficulties facing the housing sector and highlights an issue Biden hopes to push on the campaign trail. – Politico
  • Home Flipping Plummets Across U.S. in 2023 as Profits Slump Again – ATTOM


On the US—other developments:      

  • Hitting Home: Housing Affordability in the U.S. – Econofact
  • FACT SHEET: In Nevada, President Biden to Double Down on Plan to Lower Housing Costs and Increase Housing Supply for American Families – The White House  
  • A Big Step Toward a Fairer Housing Market – New York Times
  • Biden Suggests a Bigger Federal Role to Reduce Housing Cost. A new report focuses on the prolonged struggle to build affordable housing across America and suggests federal incentives to help. – New York Times
  • How a housing market puzzle helps explain the economy’s resilience – Axios
  • Why are so many voters frustrated by the US economy? It’s home prices. Going into this election year, the United States is slogging through a housing affordability crisis – Quartz
  • What is causing the growing divide in the US property market? While most homebuyers are still hobbled by high mortgage rates, sales of luxury homes are surging – FT
  • 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February 2024 – Calculated Risk
  • Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024 – Calculated Risk
  • ATTOM Ranks Best Counties for Buying Single-Family Rentals in 2024 – ATTOM
  • Housing Market Update: Listings Surge, Luring Some Buyers off the Fence, But Near-Record Housing Costs Price Others Out – Redfin
  • Regulatory Changes Expected to Increase Access to Financing for Manufactured Homes. Updates modernize Title I, the only federal program focused on safe, affordable home-only loans – Pew
  • Why Private Developers Are Rejecting Government Money for Affordable Housing. Complex in Los Angeles for formerly homeless costs less than half as much as buildings financed with public money – Wall Street Journal
  • Once America’s Hottest Housing Market, Austin Is Running in Reverse. Home prices have fallen more than anywhere in the U.S. – Wall Street Journal
  • Fed’s inflation fight will affect housing supply for decades, says Redfin CEO – Yahoo Finance
  • Three cheers for supply? Demand, on the other hand, is not helping US housing markets – FT
  • Biden starts making his affordable housing pitch on the trail. A trip to Nevada will be centered around increasing housing supply. – Politico
  • NAHB Releases What Home Buyers Really Want, Study Shows Buyers Want Smaller Homes – NAHB
  • Affordable Housing: Subsidies Raise Costs – Cato
  • America’s Magical Thinking About Housing. The city of Austin built a lot of homes. Now rent is falling, and some people seem to think that’s a bad thing. – The Atlantic


On China:

  • China’s home prices extend declines despite support measures – Reuters
  • China Home Price Slump Persists Even as Support Mounts. Drop in new-home prices shows ‘no signs of ebbing’: economist. Property crisis drags on as developer Vanke faces pressure – Bloomberg
  • China housing prices continued to slump in February. The NBS published its 70-city housing prices data, which showed primary and secondary market prices declining for the 9th and 10th consecutive months respectively – ING
  • China’s Real-Estate Market Just Set a Record—but Not a Good One. Sales are up, but homeowners are being forced to slash prices – Wall Street Journal


On other countries:  

  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong Housing Rebound Starts to Cool as Weekend Sales Fall – Bloomberg
  • [Slovak Republic] Rebuilding fiscal buffers, sustaining productivity growth and tackling housing challenges will help the Slovak Republic boost economic resilience and living standards – OECD
  • [United Kingdom] London Home Rents Surge at Record Pace to Over £2,000 a Month. Official figures underscore strain on younger generations. Supply constraints and rising population squeeze renters – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK Rental Market Index – hometrack
  • [United Kingdom] The end of landlords: the surprisingly simple solution to the UK housing crisis. Mass-scale housebuilding isn’t necessary – there is already enough housing stock. But we need to learn the wisdom of the last century when it comes to landlordism – The Guardian

On cross-country:

  • Housing Is in Crisis All Around the World – Bloomberg

Working papers and conferences:

  • All That Glitters? Golden Visas and Real Estate – IZA
  • The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates – FHFA
  • Why Not Tax It? The Effects of Property Taxes on House Price and Homeownership – SSRN
  • The impact of prudential regulations on the UK housing market and economy: insights from an agent-based model – Bank of England
  • Book: When Housing Markets Meet Shadow Banking: Bubbles,

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Housing View – March 15, 2024

On cross-country:

  • Why Europe’s housing crisis is taking hold. From Sweden to Spain, via the Netherlands and Greece, inadequate construction rates and excessive tourism have accentuated the housing shortage, while prices remain high. – Le Monde
  • The link between housing affordability and poverty in Europe – LSE


Working papers and conferences:

  • Call for Papers: Workshop on Changing Demographics and Housing Demand: Call for Papers on October 24-25 – Philadelphia Fed
  • 4th Workshop on Rent Control – DIW Berlin
  • The housing channel of intergenerational wealth persistence – CEPR
  • How house prices respond to monetary tightening: The role of cyclical conditions – VoxEU
  • Housing Speculation, GSEs, and Credit Market Spillovers – NBER
  • A Housing Portfolio Channel of QE Transmission – NBER 
  • Measuring Homeownership Sustainability for First-Time Homebuyers – FHFA
  • The Impact of Borrower-Based Macroprudential Policies on Financial Stability, Inequality, and Housing Stock with a High-Resolution, Data-Driven Model – SSRN
  • Forecasting Single Family House Prices in the US using GMDH – SSRN
  • Can Higher Federal Funds Rates Control Mortgage Lending during High Inflation and High House Prices in Absence of Reserve Requirements? – SSRN   


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Mortgage Rates in US Drop for First Time Since Early February. Borrowing costs are a big hurdle for buyers, economist says. New listings are rising in sign that inventory crunch may ease – Bloomberg
  • Mortgage Rates Just Dropped—but the Housing Market Got Even Better News This Week – Realtor.com
  • The “Home ATM” Closed in Q4. Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was low in Q4 – Calculated Risk
  • America’s rental-market mystery. And why it may deter the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates – The Economist
  • The Only Force Stronger Than Polarization? Rising Home Prices. Checking Zillow is not an ideological activity. – Atlantic Council
  • Lawler: Rent Trends at some Large Holders of Multifamily Properties – Calculated Risk
  • 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February. Inventory Continues to Surge in Florida – Calculated Risk
  • Housing Continues to Keep Inflation Elevated – NAHB
  • How housing supply is beginning to recover: Redfin CEO – Yahoo Finance


On the US—other developments:    

  • Homebuyers Get More Options as Steep Prices Lure Holdout Sellers. More owners are deciding to list their properties, an early sign that the mortgage ‘lock-in effect’ may be loosening its grip. – Bloomberg
  • FACT SHEET: President Biden Announces Plan to Lower Housing Costs for Working Families – The White House
  • Remarks by National Economic Advisor Lael Brainard on President Biden’s Bold Plan for Housing – The White House
  • Biden’s Plan To Subsidize Homebuyers Won’t Work. The president’s laundry list of proposed tax credits would likely make the problem of high housing costs worse. – Reason
  • Inside Biden’s plan to unlock the housing market’s golden handcuffs – Axios
  • Yellen says Biden’s proposed housing tax credits could boost supply – Reuters
  • Why Biden’s so obsessed with housing policy – Axios
  • Biden’s Budget Includes Several New Housing Proposals – NAHB 
  • To Fix a Housing Crisis, New York Leaders Seek to Revive a 1950s Idea. State Democrats are set to propose a series of ideas to address affordability and a lack of new homes. Some of the ideas are new. And some are very, very old. – New York Times 
  • The Billionaries’ Secret Plan to Solve California’s Housing Crisis – New York Times
  • The Politics of Housing: Owner/Renter Polarization. A partisan chasm is widening – Home Economics
  • Housing Market Update: Supply Ticked Up in February for First Time in 8 Months – Redfin  
  • California, New Jersey and Illinois Still Facing Higher Risk of Housing Market Decline – ATTOM
  • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February. Early Reports Suggest Sales will be up from January – Calculated Risk
  • A Rising Tide Lifts All Homes? Housing Consumption Trends for Low-Income Households Since the 1980s – Minneapolis Fed
  • Opinion: Inflation isn’t the real problem for the U.S. economy. The housing shortage is – Los Angeles Times
  • U.S. Foreclosure Activity Continues to See an Annual Increase – ATTOM
  • Examining Differences between Homeowner and Renter Wealth – NAHB
  • Unleashing Manufactured Housing. The United States presently has an estimated shortage of 3–5 million housing units. – Cato Institute
  • Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO. REO: lender Real Estate Owned – Calculated Risk
  • Survey: Buyers and Owners Cite Concern Over Climate and Natural Disaster Risks – Realtor.com
  • American dream of owning a home is dead, majority of renters say. Exclusive: most renters surveyed by Harris Poll say the areas they live in have become so unaffordable they are ‘barely livable’ – The Guardian
  • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024 – Calculated Risk
  • Where Are the Most Expensive US Places for Property Taxes? – CoreLogic
  • Climate Risks Threaten Nearly Half of All Homes in the U.S.: What Buyers and Sellers Need To Know – Realtor.com


On China:

  • Shanghai housing market’s downwards trend to continue amid low demand and expectations of further price declines, brokers say. Owners selling homes will have to offer discounts of 5 to 10 per cent to make sales: brokers. ‘Most customers are just taking a wait-and-see approach,’ sales manager at property agency 5I5J says – South China Morning Post
  • China ready to let some troubled property firms go bust: housing minister. Ni Hong says authorities have the arduous task of stabilising the crisis-hit real estate industry this year. Companies that are insolvent or can’t operate must fold or be restructured, Ni says – South China Morning Post
  • China’s housing minister says real estate developers must go bankrupt if necessary – CNBC
  • Moody’s Downgrades Major Chinese Property Developer Vanke. Moody’s has downgraded one of China’s largest housing developers’ credit rating, as woes in the country’s property sector show no sign of abating. – AFP
  • Rising mortgage defaults bring more pain to Chinese households – Reuters


On other countries:  

  • [Australia] First home buyers tapping super could drive up house prices – AFR
  • [Australia] The ‘good old days’ for housing affordability were just four years ago – here’s why. But those days of 2020 are good only relative to now, and that’s a rather horrific thought – The Guardian
  • [Australia] Sydney Faces Growing Pains as Its Housing Crisis Deepens. A New South Wales state plan to build apartments around Sydney train stations has run into local opposition. – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Trudeau Eyes Boost to Canada’s Housing Supply With New Budget – Bloomberg
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong property agents expect more big-ticket foreclosures this year – Reuters
  • [Hong Kong] Ending cooling measures no game changer for Hong Kong property market. The end of more than a decade of cooling measures for Hong Kong’s property market is welcome and has sparked a surge in new home sales. These changes must be put in proper context, though, as several other factors will be more consequential in setting the property sector’s course – South China Morning Post
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s Apartment Glut Is Set to Keep Prices Down After Tax Cut. Market must absorb inventory before values recover, agents say. Competition also likely to stifle prices even as sales rebound – Bloomberg
  • [India] India’s housing market remains upbeat – Global Property Guide
  • [Indonesia] Indonesia’s housing market remains stable – Global Property Guide
  • [Ireland] The Irish Times view on housing supply: some progress on building new homes. While pointing to the acceleration in construction, Ministers also need to recognise the distance still to be travelled – The Irish Times
  • [Spanish] Spanish house price growth bucks general eurozone trend. Despite a decline in the fourth quarter of 2023, Spanish house prices grew by an average of 4.2% over the full year. Spain goes against the trend of many eurozone countries where average house price growth was negative last year due to rising interest rates – ING
  • [South Korea] South Korea’s land minister bearish on property as population ages – Reuters
  • [Sweden] Swedish Home Prices Edge Up in Sign Recovery May Be Nearing – Bloomberg
  • [United Arab Emirates] United Arab Emirates Residential Property Price Report: February 2024 – REIDIN
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices near 2022 peak after fifth monthly rise in a row. Halifax says prices grew by 1.7% on an annual basis with the average UK house now costing £291,699 – FT 
  • [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Rise for a Fifth Month, Halifax Says. 0.4% gain in February leaves home values 1.7% higher on year. But Halifax warns of possible slowdown later in the year – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK Housing Market Achieves ‘Soft Landing’ as Prices Stabilize. RICS survey sees three-year high for properties on sale. New buyer inquiries positive for a second consecutive month – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK housing market strengthens in February, RICS survey shows – Reuters  

On cross-country:

  • Why Europe’s housing crisis is taking hold. From Sweden to Spain, via the Netherlands and Greece, inadequate construction rates and excessive tourism have accentuated the housing shortage, while prices remain high. – Le Monde
  • The link between housing affordability and poverty in Europe – LSE

Working papers and conferences:

  • Call for Papers: Workshop on Changing Demographics and Housing Demand: Call for Papers on October 24-25 – Philadelphia Fed
  • 4th Workshop on Rent Control – DIW Berlin
  • The housing channel of intergenerational wealth persistence – CEPR
  • How house prices respond to monetary tightening: The role of cyclical conditions – VoxEU
  • Housing Speculation,

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Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

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