The Unassuming Economist

On cross-country:

• How a mortgage transforms your investment portfolio. They turn retail savers into hedge-fund managers – The Economist
• Why skyscrapers are so short. How to overcome physical, economic and regulatory barriers and build taller – The Works in Progress Newsletter
• The purpose of a building is how it looks. True functionalism combines utility and beauty – The Works in Progress Newsletter
• From Projects to Process. The Promise of Service-Oriented Housing Development – Thesis Driven
• Where Healthcare Meets Housing. A new generation of operators are boosting returns by marrying Medicaid and real estate – Thesis Driven

Working papers and conferences:

• 5th International workshop on rent control – Universitat Rovira i Virgili
• Social media sentiment and house prices: Evidence from 35 Chinese cities – SSRN
• The Effects of Flood Risk Mandatory Disclosure on Housing Markets – SSRN 
• Global Variations of Urban Form: Characterization and Quantification through Intelligent Remote Sensing Image Analysis – Sustainable Cities and Society
• Introduction to Housing – Routledge

On China:

• China Weighs Housing Market Overhaul to Curb Pre-Sales – Bloomberg

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] How Housing Became the Third Rail of Australian Politics. Going into a federal election, both major parties are hesitant to tame the sky-high property values that have priced many voters out of the housing market. – New York Times
• [Australia] Australian House Prices Hit Record High Ahead of Saturday’s Vote – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Our Carrie Bradshaw index shows Australia’s housing is in crisis. In most big cities, the average worker struggles to afford their own place – The Economist
• [Australia] Albanese tells crossbench to ‘get out of the way’ on housing as he faces calls for stronger action on environment. PM flags cutting university debts as priority for newly re-elected government as cabinet speculation swirls – The Guardian
• [New Zealand] New Zealand’s house price crash steepens – MacroBusiness

On other countries:  

• [Belgium] Brussels’ collapsing rental market: How Airbnb is draining the housing supply. In some parts of the city, over 30% of real estate has been converted into tourist accommodation. – The Brussels Times
• [Canada] Canada’s building homes fast─but for how long? – RBC
• [Canada] Canada’s housing markets crack under weight of trade war – RBC
• [Canada] Toronto Home-Price Declines Accelerate Amid Trade War With US – Bloomberg
• [Canada] GTA: Home sales remained depressed in April – National Bank of Canada
• [India] India sees debut listing of residential mortgage-backed securities – Reuters
• [Norway] Norway’s Home Prices Shrink for First Time in Nine Months – Bloomberg
• [Spain] Madrid’s House Prices Rise 24% as Real Estate Crunch Deepens – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] One-of-a-kind ‘Delayed Start’ mortgage launched in UK. The deal, unveiled by Skipton building society, means buyers would not have to make any repayments for the first three months – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK financial watchdog consults on steps to simplify mortgage rules – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] UK regulator to dilute mortgage lending rules. FCA responds to prime minister’s call for watchdogs to focus on promoting economic growth – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rose unexpectedly in April – Halifax – Reuters

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak. Price-to-rent index is 7.5% below 2022 peak – Calculated Risk
• ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool – Calculated Risk
• Prices for New Homes Continue to Drop as Existing Rises – NAHB
• Renters Are Paying More Than Ever—Here’s Where Rents Have Spiked the Most – Realtor.com
• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• Falling Rents Are Holding the Housing Market Captive. A historic wave of apartment construction has kept rental prices down in much of the US, allowing would-be buyers to put off purchasing decisions. – Bloomberg
• Trump budget would slash rental aid by 40% — and let states fill the gap if they want – NPR
• See Where Home Prices Are Rising and Falling the Most. Markets in Florida and Texas with lots of inventory post biggest price declines, while prices in Northeast and Midwest rise – Wall Street Journal
• Sellers in Sun Belt Cities Are Slashing Home Prices the Most—and the Majority of Cuts Are in Florida – Realtor.com
• High mortgage rates and tariff uncertainty drag on US housing market. Trump’s trade wars and federal job cuts lead to stagnation during what should be peak selling season – FT
• Mortgage Activity Levels Off in April as Rates Increase – NAHB
• April 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• 3 Reasons Why Houses Are So Expensive Right Now – Redfin
• Could climate change trigger the next subprime mortgage crisis? Climate change is quietly corroding the foundations of the U.S. housing market. The result could be disastrous. – Fast Company

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Canadian Snowbirds Are Selling. Which housing markets are most vulnerable? – Home Economics
• March Private Residential Construction Spending Dips – NAHB
• Federal opportunities to build housing supply and advance affordable homeownership – JP Morgan Chase Policy Center
• Would the Housing Crisis Ease if Boomers Rented Out Their Empty Rooms? Millions of single-family homes are underused, on spacious lots. Refitting them for “roommate houses” or backyard cottages could make a difference. – New York Times
• 69 housing markets where higher inventory is tipping scales to buyers. Among the nation’s 200 largest housing markets, these 69 metro areas now have active inventory at or above 2019 pre-pandemic levels. – Fast Company
• Residential Building Worker Wage Growth Slows Amid Softer Labor Market – NAHB
• Former V-P Mike Pence warns Trump’s tariffs could lead to US shortages – The Straits Times
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April – Calculated Risk
• Multifamily Developer Confidence Falls in the First Quarter – NAHB

On other developments:    

• Is Florida’s Downturn Coming for the Rest of the Country? It feels a bit like 2004 – Home Economics
• Americans’ Satisfaction With ‘Good, Affordable Housing’ in U.S. Plunges—Here’s Why – Realtor.com
• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in March. Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Equals Highest Since 2011 (ex-Pandemic) – Calculated Risk
• April 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• Homeownership further out of reach as rising prices, high mortgage rates widen affordability gap – AP
• Fitch Ratings to Host Webinar on State of the U.S. Housing Economy – Fitch
• Supporting bipartisan policies to tackle the national housing supply shortage – JP Morgan Chase 
• Trump Seeks to End Permanent Supportive Housing for the Chronically Homeless. More than 300,000 people live in such housing, all chronically homeless and disabled. Many are veterans. – New York Times
• Market Volatility Is Already Making the Housing Shortage Worse. What an Arizona land investor is seeing in the market – Bloomberg
• Proposed cuts to housing programs could affect millions, experts warn. The White House proposed slashing funding for Section 8 and other federal programs by about 43 percent, saying it will “fix our broken federal housing policy.” – Washington Post
• Problems With Low-Income Housing Tax Credits. State and local governments should reassess zoning rules, land-use regulations, and permitting requirements that raise costs and slow construction, particularly for multifamily housing. – Cato
• Home Equity Dips Slightly During First Quarter But Remains Near Historic Highs – ATTOM

From a paper by Saban Nazlioglu, Sinem Pinar Gurel, Sevcan Gunes, Tugba Akin, Cagin Karul & Muhsin Kar:

“The growing empirical literature documents evidence on increasing global inflation co-movement across countries over time; however, little is known about the quantile co-movement structure of inflation. By introducing quantile factor model for a global sample of 151 countries from 1970 to 2023, this study provides new insights with respect to inflation co-movement. The quantile factor analysis sheds light on that (i) global inflation has a quantile-dependent factor structure, with different behavior in low, mild/stable, and high inflation periods; (ii) inflation shows an asymmetric co-movement pattern, with a decreasing degree in low and high inflation periods in comparison with stable inflation period; (iii) while interest rate and economic activity are the underlying observables for the latent quantile factors in low and stable inflation periods, commodity prices also become an underlying observable in high inflation period; and finally (iv) using quantile factors is nontrivial in improving density forecast of inflation in both developed and emerging markets.”

From a paper by José Said Sánchez Martínez:

“This article investigates the frequency, causes, and implementation of austerity policies in state governments in Mexico during the period 2009–2021. The methodology combines documentary and statistical analysis (linear regression) to characterize such policies and identify the determinants of public spending. Results show that austerity policies are routine actions, that the reduction in federal transfers and the increase in public debt are some of their cause, and that they have a real application, which is observed in cuts to public spending.”

From a F&D Article by M. Ayhan Kose, Prakash Loungani, and Marco E. Terrones:

By any measure, the ongoing global recession is the deepest and the most synchronized of the postwar period

The U.S. baseball season culminates in a championship called the World Series, reflecting a time when the United States was the world when it came to baseball. Likewise, in the 1960s, a recession in the United States could just as well have been called a global recession. The United States accounted for a large share of world output, and cyclical activity in much of the rest of the world was dependent on U.S. conditions.

What constitutes a global recession today? Although advanced economies like the United States used to account for roughly 75 percent of world output in the 1960s, their share is now only about 55 percent. As a result, the coincidence between business cycles in advanced economies and global business cycles can no longer be taken for granted. At the same time, however, the countries of the world are more integrated today through trade and financial flows than they were in the 1960s. This creates greater potential for spillover and contagion effects, increasing the odds of synchronous movements and a global business cycle.

Surprisingly, there is no commonly accepted definition of a global recession. Under the definition we propose here—a contraction in world real per capita gross domestic product (GDP) accompanied by a broad decline in various other measures of global economic activity—there have been four global recessions in the post–World War II period: 1975, 1982, 1991, and 2009. The current recession is easily the most severe of the four: output—depending on the measure—is projected to fall between four and six times as much as it did on average in the three other global recessions, and unemployment is likely to increase twice as much. The collapse in world trade this year dwarfs that in past global recessions. And no previous global recession has had so many countries in a state of recession simultaneously. Put simply, in baseball parlance, this global recession is out of the ballpark.

Let’s date

In deciding when a particular country is in recession, economists often use statistical procedures to date the peaks and troughs of a key indicator of economic activity, such as the country’s real GDP. Applying the same idea at the global level since 1960, we use annual data on world real per capita GDP, using purchasing-power-parity (PPP) weights, from 1960 to 2010 (see Box 1). The estimates for 2009–10 are based on the latest IMF growth forecasts (International Monetary Fund, 2009). A per capita measure is used to account for the vast differences in population growth rates across countries. Emerging and developing economies tend to have faster GDP growth than industrialized economies, but they also have higher population growth.

Continue reading here.

Also, see the following VoxEU article here.