The Unassuming Economist

Working papers and conferences:

• 5^th International Workshop on Rent Control – Universitat Rovira i Virgili
• Housing, Climate Risk, and Insurance – NBER
• Response to “Supply Constraints do not Explain House Price and Quantity Growth Across U.S. Cities” by Louie, Mondragon, and Wieland – SSRN
• Influence of Demography on Housing Prices in Taiwan – SSRN
• House Prices, Debt Burdens, and the Heterogeneous Effects of Mortgage Rate Shocks – SSRN
• Comparing the Effectiveness of Rental Subsidies and Homeownership Subsidies in Addressing Housing Affordability in New Zealand: Evidence from Auckland – SSRN
• Discrimination Against Housing Vouchers: Evidence from Online Rental Listings – SSRN    

On China:

• China’s home prices dip in May, extending two-year slump – Reuters
• As China’s housing slump deepens, consumers open their wallets to spend. China sees a declining housing market amid a jump in consumer spending. Here’s what it means for the world’s second-largest economy – Quartz
• China’s property market recovery stalls as falling prices hit sentiment. Data sets back hopes that struggling market could stabilise this year – FT
• China housing demand to stay at 75 below peak, Goldman says – Bloomberg

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Labor has promised 1.2m new homes in its second term. Is it possible? Experts weigh in on what Australia needs to change to get more houses, more quickly – from fixing a 2,000-page code, to backing modular builds – The Guardian
• [Australia] Building our way out of social housing unaffordability may no longer be possible. Australia is still spending nowhere near enough to decisively reverse decades of neglect. Winding down tax breaks might be the answer – The Guardian
• [Australia] Building our way out of social housing unaffordability may no longer be possible. Australia is still spending nowhere near enough to decisively reverse decades of neglect. Winding down tax breaks might be the answer – The Guardian
• [Australia] How to tackle Australia’s housing crisis – Grattan Institute
• [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices edge lower in May as market remains soft – Reuters

On other countries:  

• [Canada] P.E.I. population growth outpacing homebuilding rate – Fraser Institute
• [Canada] Canada Housing Market: Hosing resale activity picked up in May 2025…Are we witnessing easing effects from trade-related uncertainty on housing demand? – Scotiabank
• [Canada] Canada’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Egypt] Egypt Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Germany] Germany’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Netherlands] The Netherlands’ Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Philippines] Philippines’ Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Singapore] Singapore’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Switzerland] Switzerland Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [United Kingdom] Labor has promised 1.2m new homes in its second term. Is it possible? Experts weigh in on what Australia needs to change to get more houses, more quickly – from fixing a 2,000-page code, to backing modular builds – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Britain’s Housing Splurge Is Long Overdue. The Labour government’s plan to boost spending on affordable homes has the potential to pay for itself in wider economic benefits. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall at fastest pace in four years after stamp duty rise. Annual house price growth halves to 3.5% in April as temporary tax relief ends – FT
• [United Kingdom] Non-doms’ retreat hits London’s prime housing market. Cooling of interest from wealthy international buyers, say estate agents ends – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK Home Prices See Biggest Drop Since 2021 as Tax Hike Kicks In – Bloomberg

From paper by Mallika Saha, Kumar Debasis Dutta & Touhidur Rahman:

“The increasing influence of financialization (FIN) has been widely debated for its potential to exacerbate income inequality (INQ), particularly in nations with weaker democratic institutions. This research investigates how democracy (DEM) influences the relationship between financialization (FIN) and income inequality (INQ) by examining a panel of 118 countries spanning the period from 2004 to 2022. Utilizing advanced econometric methods, specifically System-GMM estimation, the findings reveal that the FIN–INQ relationship is nonlinear, exhibiting a U-shaped pattern: Financialization initially alleviates income inequality, but after reaching a certain threshold, it begins to intensify income disparities. Additionally, we find that DEM significantly mitigates the adverse effects of FIN on INQ. Strong democratic institutions, through mechanisms such as transparency, accountability, and the protection of labor rights, help prevent wealth concentration and promote a more equitable income distribution. These findings offer critical insights for policymakers, highlighting the need to foster democratic governance to ensure that financialization contributes to equitable economic outcomes and supports sustainable development.”

From paper by Eliphas Ndou & Nombulelo Gumata:

“This paper estimates various inflation threshold and structural VAR models to investigate the passthrough of oil prices to consumer price inflation in South Africa when inflation is in the 3–6 percent inflation target band compared to when it is above 6 percent. The paper uses monthly data from 2001M1 to 2022M12. We find that the oil price passthrough to inflation is about three times lower when inflation is within the 3–6 percent target band compared to when it is above the 6 percent. Thus, under the inflation targeting framework, the 3–6 percent inflation target band has induced a structural change in the oil price and inflation relationship in South Africa. In addition, a one percentage point oil price inflation shock raises inflation by 0.11 percentage points when inflation is below 4.5 percent compared to 0.43 percentage points above this threshold. These findings imply that the oil price passthrough coefficient in the Bank forecasting model should be half the size when inflation is within 3-6 percent compared to when inflation isabove 6 percent”

From a paper by François Langot, Jocelyn Maillard, Selma Malmberg, Fabien Tripier, and Jean-Olivier Hairault:

“This paper evaluates different fiscal consolidation policies using a Heterogeneous-Agent New-
Keynesian (HANK) model. Three key results emerge. First, the effectiveness of fiscal consolidation
improves markedly when implemented through a fiscal rule rather than resulting from
a series of discretionary decisions: for the same level of expenditure cuts, the reduction in the
debt-to-GDP ratio is larger, and the uncertainty surrounding debt forecasts is lower. Second, it
is more efficient to use household transfers as an instrument than public consumption. Third, a
significant reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio can be achieved without penalizing GDP growth
or exacerbating inequalities if the government drastically reduces social insurance-based transfers
while increasing social assistance transfers. These results are based on an original stochastic
debt-sustainability analysis using a HANK model, which provides: (i) the projected path of the
future debt-to-GDP ratio for a given policy, conditional on a particular business cycle episode,
and (ii) the full distribution of future debt-to-GDP ratios, thereby highlighting the policy’s
benefits in reducing the risk of a public debt increase under adverse economic conditions. Evaluations
are based on the French economy, which has committed to lowering it in order to comply
with the European Treaty.”

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Using Income Changes to Forecast Home Prices by County – Home Economics
• Expert Panel Expects Moderating Home Price Growth through 2026 – Fannie Mae
• Mortgage Rates Ease to 6.84% – Realtor.com
• Buyer-Friendly Housing Market Gets a Boost With a Dip in Mortgage Rates – Realtor.com
• Housing Isn’t Expensive for Everyone. Do you have a ZIRP-era mortgage or not? – Bloomberg
• Congress Considers a Crackdown on Those Spammy Calls From Mortgage Lenders. Legislation would curb ‘trigger leads,’ whereby credit bureaus sell your mortgage application information to competing lenders – Wall Street Journal 
• Trump has a plan to remake the housing-finance system. It’s baffling to many lawmakers and experts. The question of what to do with Fannie and Freddie, the two dominant mortgage financiers, has bedeviled policymakers for decades. – Politico

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• More Home Listings Are Paving the Way to a Buyer-Friendly Market – Realtor.com
• 32 housing markets where tight inventory still favors sellers. Among the nation’s 200 largest metro area housing markets, 32 markets at the end of May 2025 still had at least 50% less active inventory than in May 2019. – Fast Company
• New Real-Estate Math: Half a Million More Sellers Than Buyers. New listings haven’t been enough to jolt the housing market out of its slumber – Wall Street Journal
• Permit Activity Weakens in April 2025 – NAHB
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in May – Calculated Risk
• Builder Sentiment at Third Lowest Reading Since 2012 – NAHB
• Housing Market Index and Single Family Starts – Calculated Risk
• Housing Starts Decreased to 1.256 million Annual Rate in May – Calculated Risk
• Sharp Drop in Multifamily Production Brings Overall Housing Starts Down – NAHB
• US single-family housing starts rise in May; permits slump – Reuters
• US housing construction falls to 5-year low as tariffs weigh on sector. Signs of property market weakness come hours ahead of Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates – FT
• Single-Family Home Construction Stays Muted in May as Builders Grapple With Rates and Tariffs – Realtor.com
• There Are Nearly 15 Million Vacant Homes in America—Here’s Where Most of Them Are – Realtor.com
•  Buyer-Friendly Housing Market Grows as Home Prices Hold Steady – Realtor.com
• Housing’s Woes Are a Leading Indicator – Wall Street Journal
• Housing Starts Weaken Amid Gloomy Builder Sentiment – Wall Street Journal
• The housing market slump is getting worse – Axios

On other developments:    

• Household Real Estate Asset Value Falls to Start the Year – NAHB
• Here’s how Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’ would impact housing – CNN
• Why did those apartments for the poor cost D.C. more than $1 million each? – Washington Post
• The affordability gap: Is home ownership still within reach in today’s economy? – JP Morgan Chase
• Home Flipping Profits Drop in First Quarter – ATTOM
• The 10 states where homeownership will most be out of reach in 5 years. These 10 states are projected to have the largest gaps between income and homeowners in five years – Quartz
• Can You Guess the Hidden Costs of Homeownership? – New York Times