The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Maria Luísa Vasconcelos, Sandra Bernardo, Fátima Rocha:

“This article explores the relationship between polycrises, the weaknesses of neoliberal models, and
the evolving role of the State in managing uncertainty and promoting resilience. It argues that neoliberal policies, marked by deregulation and reduced State intervention, have deepened structural vulnerabilities, making societies more susceptible to systemic shocks. In response to interconnected crises, the State must be repositioned to play a more active role in market regulation, global coordination, and social protection. This shift calls for adaptive governance, and enhanced international cooperation, rather than a return to traditional interventionism. The study employs a qualitative methodology, using descriptive, explanatory, and interpretative approaches to analyse political dynamics in the twenty-first century.”

From a paper by Joseph Feyertag:

“Climate change, environmental degradation, and the accelerating transition to a low-carbon economy are reshaping global labour markets. These forces are altering both the demand for and supply of labour, with far-reaching implications for central banks. As institutions that closely monitor labour market dynamics to guide monetary policy, central banks will increasingly need to account for the disruptions caused by environmental pressures. Physical climate impacts and nature degradation are likely to reduce labour productivity and limit work capacity in vulnerable sectors — particularly in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). At the same time, the growing need for climate mitigation and adaptation investments may tighten labour markets by increasing demand for skilled workers, while displacing those employed in pollution-intensive industries. This report addresses a critical gap in current analysis by exploring how environmental risks intersect with central banks’ mandates through the labour market. It aims to equip central banks with the insights needed to integrate these evolving risks into their policy frameworks and operational decisions.”

From a paper by Zheng Chris Cao:

“In recent years, international tourism has grappled with various impediments to cross-border activities triggered by geopolitical shifts. This study examines whether globalization is in retreat through the lens of international tourism. We employed spatial autoregressive models, in which several connectivity mechanisms are embedded, to analyze a global dataset of tourist flows. Our findings reveal that spatial dependence in tourism flows significantly weakened during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and became increasingly driven by institutional factors, while the effects of trade links and geographical proximity diminished. This study contributes to the literature on tourism globalization by providing empirical evidence of the megatrends of deglobalization. For tourism firms operating under the assumption of ongoing globalization, these megatrends signal a significant change in the business environment. Firms should be prepared to reorient their market focus and reallocate their resources toward institutionally aligned regions in an evolving global landscape.”

From a paper by Alyshia Gálvez:

“Since Jan. 1, 1994, the economies of the US, Mexico and Canada have been linked in the North American Free Trade Agreement which facilitated the flow of certain kinds of goods and capital across borders and around the continent, while limiting others. Designed as a strategy for ‘mutual prosperity’ (in Bill Clinton’s words at the inaugural ceremony), NAFTA, and its successor, the USMCA, has been a failure. While untangling the entwined economies could be even more destructive than maintaining the deal, what imaginative possibilities have been foreclosed by the current agreement and how could these be opened back up? This article will engage in grounded speculation: what could an alternative or ‘anti-’ Nafta look like? What would it mean to design for mobility, freedom and abundance? How could a reconfigured agreement allow for and facilitate participation in economic, cultural, social and other kinds of exchanges at all scales, not only in ways that facilitate the participation of massive transnational corporations? What could a model for hemispheric food sovereignty designed for health and sustainability look like?”

From a paper by Matthew Busigin:

“This paper presents a novel methodology for enhancing macroeconomic output gap models through systematic residual analysis. Starting with a baseline model incorporating unemployment rate, total capacity utilization, and exchange rate dynamics, we develop a comprehensive framework for identifying and incorporating missing economic variables. Our enhanced model achieves a dramatic improvement in explanatory power, increasing R2 from 86.7% to 95.2% (8.6 percentage point improvement) while reducing root mean square error by 40.2%. The methodology successfully identifies optimal lag structures for monetary policy transmission (6 months), labor market intensive margins (3 months), and fiscal policy effects (3 months). This approach demonstrates that systematic residual analysis, guided by economic theory, can substantially improve macroeconomic model performance and provides a replicable framework for model enhancement across various economic applications.”