The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Andrea Ariu:

“This paper analyzes the growth of trade in Business Services with a particular focus on Ghana. This country experienced the fastest and most important increase in Business Services exports recorded in recent years. This spectacular growth has led Ghana to export as much as a developed country and improved its economy. The main factor underneath this growth is the improved capacity to export Business Services, which is likely to be accounted by an impressive inflow of foreign companies attracted by the economic and political conditions, together as the establishment of the secretariat of the African Continental Free Trade Area. These results are not specific to Ghana. In other African and non-African countries supply-side determinants show to be the main propellant of Business Services trade growth.”

From a paper by Cameron Haas, Mateo Hoyos, Emiliano Libman, Guilherme K. Martins, and Arslan Razmi:

“After decades of low and stable inflation, recent global events —such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine —triggered a resurgence in inflationary pressures, prompting central banks worldwide to tighten monetary policy. This paper examines whether monetary policy effectively curbs inflation by employing a trilemma-based identification strategy on a panel dataset of 36 developing and 8 developed economies from 1990 to 2017. Using higher-frequency monthly data, we improve on traditional quarterly or annual approaches by more precisely capturing central bank responses. By applying our theory-driven, trilemma-based identification strategy to a sample of developing countries, we bring novel insights to existing literature. Our findings indicate that monetary policy shocks have significant but impermanent effects on inflation. A 100 basis point interest rate hike lowers the price level by 3.7% at its peak after six months, with effects fading within 18 months. Crucially, our results do not exhibit the “price puzzle,” reinforcing the credibility of our identification strategy. Additionally, we find that monetary policy effects are state-dependent, with stronger disinflationary impacts during high-inflation periods and in economies with lower GDP per capita or higher commodity export dependence. These findings highlight the heterogeneity in monetary policy transmission, underscoring the need for tailored policy responses across different economic contexts.”

From a paper by Andrew Filardo, Mr. R. G Gelos, and Thomas McGregor:

“This paper develops a new approach for exploring the effectiveness of foreign currency intervention, focusing on real exchange cycles. Using band spectrum regression methods, it examines the role of macroeconomic fundamentals in determining the equilibrium real exchange rate at short-, medium-, and low frequencies. Next, it assesses the effectiveness of FX intervention depending on the degree of cycle-specific misalignments for 26 advanced- and emerging market economies, covering the period 1990–2018, and using different techniques to mitigate endogeneity concerns. Evidence supports the hypothesis that central banks can lean effectively against short-run cyclical misalignments of the real exchange rate. The effects are present in quarterly data—i.e., at policy-relevant horizons. The effectiveness of intervention rises with the size of the misalignment, and with the duration of one-sided interventions. FX sales appear to be somewhat more effective than FX purchases, and intervention is less effective in more liquid FX markets.”

From a paper by Afees A. Salisu, Rangan Gupta, and Riza Demirer:

“This paper examines the propagation of oil price uncertainty shocks to real equity prices using a large-scale Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model of 26 advanced and emerging stock markets. The GVAR framework allows us to capture the transmission of local and global shocks, while simultaneously accounting for individual-country peculiarities. Utilising a recently developed model-free, robust estimate of oil price uncertainty, we document a statistically significant and negative effect of uncertainty shocks emanating from oil prices on the large majority of global stock markets, with the adverse effect of oil price uncertainty shocks found to be stronger for emerging economies as well as net oil-exporting nations. Interestingly, however, global stock markets exhibit a great deal of heterogeneity in their recovery following oil uncertainty shocks as some experience rapid corrections in stock valuations while others suffer from extended slumps. While the results are sensitive to the oil uncertainty measure utilised, they suggest that country diversification in the face of rising oil market uncertainty can still be beneficial for global investors as global stock markets exhibit a rather heterogeneous pattern in their recovery rates against oil market shocks.”

On cross-country:

• How a mortgage transforms your investment portfolio. They turn retail savers into hedge-fund managers – The Economist
• Why skyscrapers are so short. How to overcome physical, economic and regulatory barriers and build taller – The Works in Progress Newsletter
• The purpose of a building is how it looks. True functionalism combines utility and beauty – The Works in Progress Newsletter
• From Projects to Process. The Promise of Service-Oriented Housing Development – Thesis Driven
• Where Healthcare Meets Housing. A new generation of operators are boosting returns by marrying Medicaid and real estate – Thesis Driven

Working papers and conferences:

• 5th International workshop on rent control – Universitat Rovira i Virgili
• Social media sentiment and house prices: Evidence from 35 Chinese cities – SSRN
• The Effects of Flood Risk Mandatory Disclosure on Housing Markets – SSRN 
• Global Variations of Urban Form: Characterization and Quantification through Intelligent Remote Sensing Image Analysis – Sustainable Cities and Society
• Introduction to Housing – Routledge

On China:

• China Weighs Housing Market Overhaul to Curb Pre-Sales – Bloomberg

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] How Housing Became the Third Rail of Australian Politics. Going into a federal election, both major parties are hesitant to tame the sky-high property values that have priced many voters out of the housing market. – New York Times
• [Australia] Australian House Prices Hit Record High Ahead of Saturday’s Vote – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Our Carrie Bradshaw index shows Australia’s housing is in crisis. In most big cities, the average worker struggles to afford their own place – The Economist
• [Australia] Albanese tells crossbench to ‘get out of the way’ on housing as he faces calls for stronger action on environment. PM flags cutting university debts as priority for newly re-elected government as cabinet speculation swirls – The Guardian
• [New Zealand] New Zealand’s house price crash steepens – MacroBusiness

On other countries:  

• [Belgium] Brussels’ collapsing rental market: How Airbnb is draining the housing supply. In some parts of the city, over 30% of real estate has been converted into tourist accommodation. – The Brussels Times
• [Canada] Canada’s building homes fast─but for how long? – RBC
• [Canada] Canada’s housing markets crack under weight of trade war – RBC
• [Canada] Toronto Home-Price Declines Accelerate Amid Trade War With US – Bloomberg
• [Canada] GTA: Home sales remained depressed in April – National Bank of Canada
• [India] India sees debut listing of residential mortgage-backed securities – Reuters
• [Norway] Norway’s Home Prices Shrink for First Time in Nine Months – Bloomberg
• [Spain] Madrid’s House Prices Rise 24% as Real Estate Crunch Deepens – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] One-of-a-kind ‘Delayed Start’ mortgage launched in UK. The deal, unveiled by Skipton building society, means buyers would not have to make any repayments for the first three months – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK financial watchdog consults on steps to simplify mortgage rules – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] UK regulator to dilute mortgage lending rules. FCA responds to prime minister’s call for watchdogs to focus on promoting economic growth – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rose unexpectedly in April – Halifax – Reuters