The Unassuming Economist

Source: World Bank Working Paper (2022)

“This paper develops a methodology to identify countries that are at risk of debt default based on four elements of debt vulnerability. These elements capture the different ways in which risks associated with high debt are assessed, namely: (i) the fundamental, (ii) the subjective, (iii) the judgmental, and (iv) the theoretical. The fundamental element considers the liquidity, solvency, and institutional risk elements of debt vulnerability. The subjective element captures the investors’ perceptions of debt default, while the judgmental element is based on the debt thresholds as defined by Debt Sustainability Frameworks. Finally, the theoretical element is normative and captures what ought to be. The methodology constructs an index for each of these four elements and uses them as predictors in a model of public debt default. The methodology flags countries that are at risk of default by means of machine learning techniques and delivers outputs that point to underlying causes of vulnerability.”

Also Read:

Keeping Public Debt Sustainable in an Equitable Way

From a new report by Steven A. Altman and Caroline R. Bastian:

“The DHL Global Connectedness Index measures globalization based on international flows of trade, capital, information, and people. This update highlights key developments in these four areas for the world as a whole, with a focus on the Covid-19 crisis. Overall, globalization is emerging from the pandemic far stronger than many expected. The DHL Global Connectedness Index declined modestly in 2020, and there is clear evidence of a recovery underway in 2021. Nonetheless, the pandemic has also highlighted vulnerabilities that should be addressed in order to fortify and expand the benefits of global connectedness.”

On cross-country:

• Property ladder too high for central Europe’s first-time buyers – Reuters

On the US:    

• The Housing Boom May Be About to Go Bust. A new generation of buyers is jumping into the market at what may be the worst possible time. – Bloomberg   
• The Housing Party Is Starting to Wind Down. Builders are ramping up supply just as a record low percentage of Americans say it’s a good time to buy a home. – Bloomberg
• In Covid-19 Housing Market, the Middle Class Is Getting Priced Out. Surging demand and shrinking supply combine to make home buying more difficult, as affordability worsens for many – Wall Street Journal
• It’s Time to Put Cities at the Top of America’s Economic Agenda. The U.S. economy today is actually a collection of regional economies. We need a national place-based strategy that recognizes local differences. – Bloomberg
• National and Metro Housing Market Indicators – AEI
• Zillow: Our 2022 housing forecast is way off—home prices now set to spike 16% – Fortune
• Inequality in the Time of COVID-19: Evidence from Mortgage Delinquency and Forbearance – Philadelphia Fed
• Is the ‘American Dream’ of Homeownership a False Promise? In “Owned: A Tale of Two Americas,” director Giorgio Angelini traces the origins of a discriminatory housing market. – Bloomberg
• Record-High Prices and Record-Low Inventory Make It Increasingly Difficult to Achieve Homeownership, Particularly for Black Americans – NAR     
• Want Affordable Housing? Strengthen Regional Governments. Most Americans live in metropolitan areas, and it takes a metropolitan regional government to coordinate the growth in housing, transit, and employment that makes the region livable. – The American Prospect
• The Housing Situation Is Dire. But Progress Is Still Possible. In the South Bronx, developers found ways to build an array of sleek, affordable apartments in two subsidized housing developments. Is this a way forward? – New York Times 
• There are hardly any houses left to buy – Axios
• US Housing Supply Gap Expands in 2021 – Realtor.com
• Diverse neighborhoods are made of diverse housing – Brookings
• U.S. Housing Costs Surge, With No End In Sight. Locked out of the supply-constrained home-buying market, more households are crowding the rental market, driving up rents and stressing housing support programs. – Bloomberg
• How Rent Hikes Make Buying a House Even Harder. Rising rents are pushing many to buy a home even if the housing market is already tough – Wall Street Journal
• Where Are Rents Rising the Most? In 2021, rents rebounded from pandemic lows in nearly all of the 100 largest American cities. – New York Times 
• What Freddie Mac is Doing About the Rental Affordability Crisis – Freddie Mac
• Millennial Demand is Driving up Prices in Family-Friendly Neighborhoods – Zillow
• How strip malls could help solve the housing shortage. There’s a lot of space for apartments above the commercial real estate on main suburban streets – Fast Company
• California’s Free-Market Housing Fix. A new state law allows landowners to build four units on most lots zoned currently for one unit. – Wall Street Journal
• They Rushed to Buy in the Pandemic. Here’s What They Would Change. A frenzied sellers’ market led some people to make harried decisions when buying their homes that they now regret. – New York Times 
• Homeownership in old age and at the time of death – Economics Letters
• How New York’s housing market got even more ridiculous. For a brief moment, dream apartments seemed possible – but then it all came crashing down – The Guardian 
• American Protectionism and Construction Materials Costs. Tariffs imposed by the U.S. government on materials used by the domestic construction sector cause a significant increase in the cost of those goods. – Cato Institute
• The Sustainable City Podcast: Where the Suburbs End. Join us as we discuss California’s audacious effort to deconstruct single-family zoning – New York Times

On China

• Chinese property group Shimao feels chill of sector’s liquidity crisis. Developer sucked into bond market sell-off following Evergrande collapse – FT
• China’s Taking on a Risky Bubble Deflation Experiment. Property investors, like Wile E. Coyote, may feel wobbly if they look down. – Bloomberg
• China Eases Property Loan Curbs as Housing Market Slumps. Loans to fund public rental housing become exempt from limits. PBOC’s move is latest softening of real estate clampdown – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Canadians Deepen Faith in Red-Hot Housing While Rate Hikes Loom. 64% expect real-estate prices to rise over next half year. Jump in sentiment comes amid central bank, regulatory warnings – Bloomberg
• [Iceland] Europe’s Hottest Housing Boom May Prompt Bigger Hike in Iceland. Central bank might raise key interest rate by 0.75% this week. House prices on Atlantic island have risen 150% since 2010 – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Why are there so few homes for sale in the UK? A supply crunch has left many prospective buyers struggling to find the right property – FT  
• [United Kingdom] Most Tory voters want more affordable housing stock, finds poll. YouGov study also finds most Conservative supporters in favour of higher taxes on second homes – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Residential rents rise at fastest pace in 13 years. Tenants under pressure to find affordable urban homes as workplaces reopen – FT
• [United Kingdom] U.K. Builder Says House Prices Outpacing Cost-Inflation Surge – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] These Are Britain’s Property Hotspots. The North-South divide is stark in a new analysis of property price growth over the past decade, with southern England values almost doubling in several places. – Bloomberg

From a new paper by Monica Langella and Alan Manning:

“The UK has suffered from persistent spatial differences in unemployment rates for many decades. A low responsiveness of internal migration to unemployment is often argued to be an important cause of this problem. This paper uses UK census data to investigate how unemployment affects residential mobility using small areas as potential destinations and origins and four decades of data. It finds that both in- and out-migration are affected by local unemployment – but also that there is a very high ‘cost of distance’, so most moves are very local. We complement the study with individual longitudinal data to analyse individual heterogeneities in mobility. We show that elasticities to local unemployment are different across people with different characteristics. For instance, people who are better educated are more sensitive, the same applies to homeowners. Ethnic minorities are on average less sensitive to local unemployment rates and tend to end up in higher unemployment areas when moving.”

New paper by YaojieZhang, M.I.M.Wahab & YudongWang in International Journal of Forecasting.

“This paper aims to improve the predictability of aggregate oil market volatility with a substantially large macroeconomic database, including 127 macro variables. To this end, we use machine learning from both the variable selection (VS) and common factor (i.e., dimension reduction) perspectives. We first use the lasso, elastic net (ENet), and two conventional supervised learning approaches based on the significance level of predictors’ regression coefficients and the incremental R-square to select useful predictors relevant to forecasting oil market volatility. We then rely on the principal component analysis (PCA) to extract a common factor from the selected predictors. Finally, we augment the autoregression (AR) benchmark model by including the supervised PCA common index. Our empirical results show that the supervised PCA regression model can successfully predict oil market volatility both in-sample and out-of sample. Also, the recommended models can yield forecasting gains in both statistical and economic perspectives. We further shed light on the nature of VS over time. In particular, option-implied volatility is always the most powerful predictor.”

Read more here.