The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Shih-Yen Pan , Lawrence P. King & Elias Nosrati:

“The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been one of the world’s most powerful international
organisations in setting the parameters for economic reforms in the developing world. In this study,
using annual cross-national data from 1980–2019, we investigate the impact of the IMF’s lending programmes on poverty incidence in participant countries. Departing from the prevailing practice of relying on instrumental variables, we employ a novel difference-in-differences approach that ensures clean comparisons between ‘treatment’ and ‘control’ units based on their programme participation histories. Besides providing a quantitative estimate of the average programme effect, we evaluate whether the IMF’s alleged anti-poverty focus in recent decades has made any difference. We find that IMF programme participation leads to large increases (4.2-5 percent of the total population) in the proportion of a country’s population living under the $6.85=day international poverty line (2017 PPP) and the country-specific Societal Poverty Line. We also find that the poverty reduction measures incorporated by the IMF into its programmes have not been effective in mitigating the poverty-increasing programme effects. Overall, our findings suggest that IMF programmes have been detrimental to the welfare of vulnerable populations in participant countries.”

On cross-country:

• Global House Price Index Change (Q4 2025) – Global Property Guide

Working papers and conferences:

• When Houses Outrun Paychecks: The Lost Decades of Housing Affordability – St. Louis Fed
• Seminar: Nonpayment and Eviction in the Rental Housing Market- VIOS Spring 52 on April 29 – CEPR
• Urban slums: Stepping-stone for some and traps (or shields) for others – VoxEU
• Dollar funding and housing markets: the role of non-US global banks – BIS

On China:

• Chinese homebuyers are enraged by shoddy building standards. Crooked walls and broken promises are harming China’s property market – The Economist
• China housing market shows no clear turning point as price declines continue – South China Morning Post

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] We joke that to afford a home in Australia we must wait for our parents to die. It feels like a deal with the devil – The Guardian
• [Australia] Building 1.2m homes will barely put a dent in Australia’s housing affordability, one expert says. Here’s why. Thinking ‘supply is the answer’ lets politicians dodge a much more difficult conversation about tax – for investors and owners – The Guardian
• [Australia] Australia plans to sell off defence land to developers – but could it deliver homes instead? – The Conversation
• [New Zealand] New Zealand Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [New Zealand] New Zealand home prices dip in January, holiday lull hits demand – Reuters

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Canada Home Prices Slide Again as Snowstorm Chills Buying – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Canadian Home Sales — January 2026 – Scotiabank
• [Canada] Canada: Housing prices down in January – National Bank of Canada
• [Egypt] Egypt Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Ireland] Limiting short-term tourism lets won’t increase housing supply but will damage rural economies. While Airbnb-style apartments in urban areas should be restricted, regional Ireland, where tourism is the biggest employer, should be left alone – The Irish Times
• [Italy] Milan Has an Affordable Housing Crisis. Can the Olympic Village Help?The accommodation for athletes includes a video game lounge, massage room and a range of food options. Starting from September, it will house students — or at least those who can afford the rent. – New York Times
• [Romania] Romania’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [South Africa] South Africa’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Spain] Spain Unveils Public Investment Fund To Tackle Housing Crisis – Barron’s
• [Thailand] Thailand’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [United Kingdom] January’s Gains Endure as High Supply Tempers February U.K. House-Price Growth, Rightmove Says. Rightmove said the number of homes for sale was at an 11-year high – Wall Street Journal
• [United Kingdom] UK flat prices fall after sharp drop in London. Fall is in contrast to other property types and reflects desire for more space and reluctance to pay high service charge – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK Residential Land Prices May Have Bottomed, Knight Frank Says – Bloomberg
• [United Arab Emirates] UAE Residential Property Price Report – January 2026 – REIDIN
• [Venezuela] Los precios de las viviendas en Venezuela suben mientras venezolanos en el exterior evalúan comprar. La captura de Nicolás Maduro y las expectativas de inversión petrolera han empujado el alza de los precios. – New York Times

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Rent Control: A Proven Way to Make Housing Scarce and Expensive – AEI
• Where Are Mortgage Delinquencies Rising the Most? – New York Fed
• Where mortgage rates are headed in 2026, according to 21 experts. Among the 21 mortgage rate forecasts tracked by ResiClub, the average prediction is 6.18% for calendar year 2026. – Forbes
• Revitalizing Bank Mortgage Lending, One Step with Basel – FED
• Federal Reserve Wants To Loosen Bank Rules To Boost Mortgage Lending – Realtor.com
• The Federal Reserve Wants to Change How You Shop for a Mortgage. Proposal aims to get banks back in the market by easing requirements – Wall Street Journal
• A new mortgage crisis is quietly hitting those who can least afford it. This week, there was yet another warning that many homeowners might be headed for trouble. – Washington Post
• Washington Inflates Credit Scores and Another Housing Bubble. Why is the Trump administration continuing the Biden push for ‘inclusive’ credit scores? – Wall Street Journal
• January 2026 Rental Report: Renter Conditions Improve Across U.S. Markets, With Notable Increases in Vacancies – Realtor.com
• States Hold the Keys to Greater Mortgage Access for Manufactured Home Buyers. Updates to real estate titling laws could reduce costs and complexities for borrowers – Pew
• Mamdani Fills Out Housing Board in Push to Freeze Rent. Mayor Zohran Mamdani appointed six members to the Rent Guidelines Board, which decides whether rents can go up in nearly one million rent-stabilized apartments. – New York Times

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Residential Building Worker Wages Slow in 2025 Amid Cooling Housing Activity – NAHB
• Home Sales in January Posted Biggest Monthly Decline in Nearly Four Years. Freezing temperatures and high home prices snuffed out the sales momentum from previous months – Wall Street Journal
• US existing home sales drop to more than two-year low in January – Reuters
• January 2026 Hottest Housing Markets – Realtor.com
• Congressional housing deal faces new hurdle as Trump pushes investor ban. The issue is another area in which the president’s populist ideas are clashing with GOP free-market orthodoxy. – Politico
• Yes, Housing Supply Will Help, But It’s Not Everything – Forbes
• Cost of Credit for Builders & Developers at Its Lowest Since 2022 – NAHB
• The housing market is not getting much better. And neither is inflation – FT
• Builder Sentiment Edges Lower on Affordability Concerns – NAHB
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2026 – Calculated Risk
• Housing Starts Increased to 1.404 million Annual Rate in December – Calculated Risk
• Land Grab for Data Centers Is One More Obstacle to Much-Needed Housing. Resistance grows to more land sales in Northern Virginia; ‘They’d rather have homes than data’ – Wall Street Journal
• US homebuilder sentiment remains subdued amid affordability challenges – Reuters
• Overall Housing Starts Inch Lower in 2025 – NAHB
• US single-family housing starts rebound in January, building permits decline – Reuters

On other developments:    

• A Simple Test of What People Really Think About Immigration. If you want to see whether immigration is making cities better or worse, just look at property values. – Marginal Revolution
• The decline of single-earner housebuyers in America. A tale of opportunities and costs – The Economist
• How Congress Plans to Take On the Housing Crisis. Modular housing, easier access to home loans are among proposals lawmakers are working on – Wall Street Journal
• A new bill aims to make homes affordable again. Here’s how. The House has passed the Housing for the 21st Century Act. Here’s how experts say it will make it easier (and cheaper) to buy affordable homes – Quartz
• Congress just passed a major housing bill. Will it actually lower your home price? The House passed a wide-ranging housing bill with bipartisan support, aiming to cut costs by streamlining zoning, financing, and federal programs. – Fast Company
• The ‘New Housing Crisis’ Isn’t New. What It Means If You’re Buying or Selling. – Barron’s  
• A ground-floor Costco is proving what’s broken in housing. Thrive Living’s partnership with Costco is the exception that proves the rule about what’s broken in housing. – Washington Post
• How Rising Costs Affect Home Affordability – NAHB
• How Housing Affordability Conditions Vary Across States and Metro Areas – NAHB
• 64% of Single Americans Struggle to Afford Housing, Compared With 39% of Married People – Redfin
• America’s Affordability Crisis Is a Housing Shortage. We Can Fix It in Three Steps – AEI
• Three’s a Crowd. With housing costs at an all-time high, more couples are living with roommates to manage the load. – New York Times
• The affordability crisis is driving unprecedented price cuts in the housing market, Realtor.com says – Fortune
• Disney-Led Theme Park Expansions Reshape Housing Markets – Realtor.com
• Homebuyer Down Payments Shrink for First Time in 5 Months – Redfin
• More States Requiring Landlords to Disclose Flood Risk, but Laws Vary Nationwide – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies

From a paper by Li Xie, and Zhisheng Huang:

“We incorporate the characteristics of energy price management systems in developed countries and China into a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) respectively, examine the differences in the impact of international energy price shocks on the countries’ inflation under the two types of energy price management systems, and then analyze the role of developed countries’ energy price management system (DC-EPMS) and China’s energy price management system (CN-EPMS) in the process of international energy price shocks affecting inflation. The results indicate that CN-EPMS is more effective in mitigating the negative impact of international energy price shocks on inflation compared to DC-EPMS in developed countries. Under the DC-EPMS, non-state-owned enterprises in a dominant position in the energy market, faced with international energy price shocks, will be driven by profit-maximizing behaviors to transfer the fluctuations in international energy prices to domestic energy prices and their expectations, thereby triggering inflation in developed countries; under the CN-EPMS, state-owned energy enterprises as policy implementation tools, faced with international energy price shocks, have played a functional role in safeguarding energy supply and maintaining energy price stability through energy price control and policy-oriented financial support, thereby stabilizing the energy price expectations of domestic energy consumers and effectively blocking the transmission of international energy price shocks to the inflation.”

From a paper by Kardelen Cicek, Julieth Pico Mejía, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, Alberto Tumino:

“This paper analyzes the redistributive effects of inflation across 18 European economies from
2021:Q3 to 2022:Q2, using unique micro-datasets for this country sample. We estimate inflation’s impact on household welfare through the consumption basket, income, and wealth channels. Our main contribution is incorporating real assets into the wealth channel and accounting for behavioral responses to inflation in both the income and wealth channels. These factors significantly alter inflation’s distributional effects compared to previous literature. The inflation shock is estimated to have caused an average welfare loss equivalent to 18.5 percent of annual household income across our sample, with households in the poorest income quintiles suffering the largest losses. Cross-country differences also widen when real assets are incorporated, with a few economies even showing welfare gains for some or all quintiles because house prices rose faster than inflation.”