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Housing View – February 23, 2024

On cross-country:

  • Global house prices close to bottoming out, BIS stats show – Central Banking
  • BIS residential property price statistics, Q3 2023 – BIS
  • Where are Europe’s most expensive cities for renters? – The Economist


Working papers and conferences:

  • Why we need a green land value tax and how to design it – VoxEU
  • Mortgage Borrowing Limits and House Prices: Evidence from a Policy Change in Ireland – SSRN
  • Fifty Shades of the US States: News Media Coverage and Predictability of House Prices – SSRN
  • Does Affordability Status Matter in Who Wants Multifamily Housing in their Backyard? – SSRN
  • The Redistribution of Housing Wealth Caused by Rent Control – SSRN


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • The Housing Market Still Has Hot Spots. 10 Places Where Prices Are Soaring. – Barron’s
  • 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January; California Home Sales Up 5.9% YoY in January – Calculated Risk
  • New Construction Activity Falls in January, Led by Multi-family – Realtor.com
  • Single Family Built-for-Rent Almost Doubled Since 2020. Quarterly Housing Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design – Calculated Risk
  • Rents Are Cooling, but Not Everywhere – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
  • Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey – Fannie Mae


On the US—other developments:    

  • Opportunity Zone Housing Markets Still Tracking Along with Broader U.S. Housing Market – Los Angeles Times
  • The hottest trend in U.S. cities? Changing zoning rules to allow more housing – NPR
  • US unions target the housing affordability crisis as their ‘biggest issue’. Organized labor across the country is now setting its sights on housing costs as rents and mortgages continue to soar – The Guardian  
  • Realtors Are in Crisis—and Home Buyers Could Be the Winners. A wave of lawsuits over fees paid to agents has put the giant trade association on the defense; ‘it got arrogant’ – Wall Street Journal
  • Berkeley’s Upzoning Would Be Among Nation’s Largest. A proposal to end exclusionary zoning would allow for 100,000 more homes in Berkeley’s neighborhoods. – The Discourse Lounge
  • Investor home purchases halved since the height of the pandemic housing boom. Investors purchased 50% fewer homes in Q4 2023 compared to Q4 2021, according to the latest Redfin data. – Fast Company
  • Did Wall Street kill the American Dream of homeownership? It depends on where you live – Fortune 
  • The Great Compression. Thanks to soaring housing prices, the era of the 400-square-foot subdivision house is upon us. – New York Times
  • The high cost of promoting homeownership. It’s individually rational, but collectively dysfunctional – Slow Boring
  • New Single-Family Home Size Moves Lower – NAHB
  • Good Times, Bad Times: Eviction Edition. Plus: Voters in Massachusetts reject state-mandated upzonings, Florida localities rebel against a surprisingly effective YIMBY reform, and lawsuits target missing middle housing in Virginia. – Reason


On China:

  • China seen cutting mortgage reference rate for first time since June – Reuters
  • China cuts mortgage-linked lending rate by record amount to aid property market. Five-year loan prime rate reduction unlikely to offer imminent relief to flagging home sales, analysts say – FT
  • China’s Property Crisis: Inside a Ghost Town of Abandoned Mansions – Wall Street Journal


On other countries:  

  • [Canada] Trudeau’s welcome mat for immigrants wears thin amid Canada housing crunch – Reuters
  • [France] Macron has a big housing headache. Olympics are making it worse. The French government has made tackling the housing crisis a priority in an attempt to improve living conditions for the middle class. – Politico
  • [Germany] German house prices are in freefall – Global Property Guide
  • [Israel] How Israel turned homeowners into YIMBYs. Homeowners are often the biggest opponents of building new homes. An Israeli reform reversed this by making homeowners the main beneficiaries of development. – Work in Progress
  • [Italy] Italy’s sluggish housing market – Global Property Guide
  • [Ireland] Mortgage holders paying up to €7,292 in extra charges per year by not switching. Online broker doddl.ie has urged mortgage holders to shop around for better rates – The Irish Times
  • [Ireland] Ireland’s Biggest Private Residential Landlord Avoids Investor Takeover. Irish Residential key to country resolving its housing crisis. Vision Capital Corp. had tried to overthrow the board – Bloomberg
  • [Ireland] Governments used to boast about higher house prices – not anymore. Increasing property values were once seen as reflective of a strong economy and therefore trumpeted by incumbent administrations – The Irish Times
  • [Germany] Berlin’s Housing Slump Is Over as Shortage Lures Investors. The prospect of higher rents in the German capital is countering the downward pull of financing costs – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] How likely is a recovery in the UK housing market? Falling mortgage rates and an uptick in agreed sales offer encouragement. But economic risks remain – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK to Toughen Rules on Short-Term Lets to Tackle ‘Hollowing Out’ – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Government to outline new curbs on short-term lets in England. Local residents being pushed out of tourist hotspots prompts response – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK Home Asking Prices Rise as Mortgage Relief Spurs Activity. Rightmove says price of new listings now higher than year ago. Findings are further evidence of market recovering momentum – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Mortgage lending to older UK borrowers slumps. Higher interest rates hit the market for the over-55s – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK Homeowners Are Proving More Resilient Than Once Feared. Affordability tests help ensure mortgage market’s resilience. Those re-mortgaging benefit from falling borrowing costs – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Jeremy Hunt draws up plans for 99% mortgage scheme. UK chancellor’s move aims to reassure voters that Conservatives represent the interests of homeowners – FT
  • [United Kingdom] Everything about Cambridge is booming — except housing supply. The population has been rising as jobs in biotech and pharma proliferate but the city struggles to build enough homes – FT

On cross-country:

  • Global house prices close to bottoming out, BIS stats show – Central Banking
  • BIS residential property price statistics, Q3 2023 – BIS
  • Where are Europe’s most expensive cities for renters? – The Economist

Working papers and conferences:

  • Why we need a green land value tax and how to design it – VoxEU
  • Mortgage Borrowing Limits and House Prices: Evidence from a Policy Change in Ireland – SSRN
  • Fifty Shades of the US States: News Media Coverage and Predictability of House Prices – SSRN
  • Does Affordability Status Matter in Who Wants Multifamily Housing in their Backyard?

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Housing View – February 2, 2024

On cross-country:

  • ‘Rent is too damn high!’ Europe’s growing housing crisis – Politico


Working papers and conferences:

  • 4th Workshop on Rent Control on June 20 and 21 – DIW Berlin
  • The effect of new housing supply in structural models: a forecasting performance evaluation – European Central Bank
  • Direct Rental Assistance: Returning to the Roots of Housing Allowances – SSRN
  • Behavioral Lock-In: Aggregate Implications of Reference Dependence in the Housing Market – SSRN
  • Decomposing Fire Sale Discounts in Housing Markets – SSRN
  • The Effect of New Housing Supply in Structural Models: A Forecasting Performance Evaluation – SSRN
  • House of Cards? Perspectives on European Housing – SSRN
  • Intertemporal Risk-Return Relationship in Housing Markets: International Evidence – SSRN
  • Does Political Partisanship Affect Housing Supply? Evidence from Us Cities – SSRN
  • Monetary Policy Shocks And Local Housing Markets – SSRN
  • Income Inequality, Mortgage Debt and House Prices – SSRN


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Warren Urges Powell to Cut Rates to Help Alleviate Housing Costs. Democratic senators write letter to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. High interest rates crimp housing supply, drive up rents – Bloomberg
  • Mortgage Rates in US to Snap Three-Year Streak of Gains, Survey Shows. Rate on a 30-year, fixed mortgage is expected to fall to 5.5%. For offices, some expect demand to start reaching a bottom. – Bloomberg
  • US Home-Price Growth Slows as High Rates Squeeze Demand. Gains in November eased after borrowing costs hit a high. Buyers are facing prices that are 69% above a 2006 peak – Bloomberg
  • Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 5.1% year-over-year in November. FHFA: House Prices “Up 6.6 Percent from Last Year” – Calculated Risk
  • New Home Sales Bounce Back in December on Lower Mortgage Rates – NAHB
  • Housing is now unaffordable for a record half of all U.S. renters, study findsNPR
  • All-Cash Share of New Home Sales Remains Elevated in 2023 – NAHB
  • Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 6.6% Year-over-year. Austin Prices Down 12.4% from Peak Seasonally Adjusted – Calculated Risk


On the US—other developments:    

  • Brutal Winter Across America Is Keeping the Housing Market on Ice. Even as mortgage rates drop, storms and subzero temperatures have kept a lot of potential buyers on the sideline – Wall Street Journal
  • The One Part of the Housing Market That’s Growing. As owners remain reluctant to put their properties on the market, developers are rushing to build new homes to meet demand. – New York Times
  • Home Selling Profits Drop in 2023 for First Time in Over a Decade Amid Modest Price Gains – ATTOM
  • Where Can Gen Z Buy a Home? Older members of the generation are early in their careers, and they face increases in inflation, home prices and interest rates. – New York Times and Point2
  • Amid a Housing Crunch, Religious Groups Unlock Land to Build Homes. Faith-based organizations are unlocking their real estate to develop affordable housing, but they face challenges from reluctant local residents, wary lenders and strict zoning laws. – New York Times
  • Is Now a Good Time to Buy? – Freddie Mac
  • Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rate Increased Slightly, Multi-family Unchanged in December. CoreLogic: “Home Loan Performance Remains Strong” – Calculated Risk
  • Can You Afford a Home in America’s Top Emerging Housing Market? – Realtor.com
  • ‘We’re at a Turning Point’: Is the Housing Market Finally Thawing—or Is Another Deep Freeze To Come? – Realtor.com


On China:

  • China’s Guangzhou first to completely ease purchase limit on large homes – Reuters
  • Evergrande Set for Liquidation as China Property Crisis Drags On. Developer will end up in new management, judge says in order. Trading in the stock halted after 21% tumble on Monday – Bloomberg
  • Chinese developer Evergrande ordered to be wound up by Hong Kong court. Indebted property group fails to agree restructuring plan with creditors – FT 
  • Evergrande is the teetering domino that can topple its real estate peers. Property prices in China could take yet another hit from deconstruction of the indebted developer – FT
  • China’s Deflation Pressures Seen Persisting Through Mid-2024. Economists also expect home prices will fall m/m until 3Q. 2024 GDP growth expected at 4.6% y/y, up from earlier estimate – Bloomberg
  • Evergrande’s liquidation is a new low in China’s property crisis. A judge in Hong Kong surprises the mainland – The Economist
  • China’s Economy Czar Presses Cities on Funding for Real Estate. Property sector has been a major drag on China’s economy. He Lifeng calls on cities to make timely moves on financing – Bloomberg
  • China Home Sales Slump Persists After Evergrande Liquidation. China Jan new homes sales record low in recent years. Local gov ramped up support by drafting white list projects – Bloomberg


On other countries:  

  • [Canada] How will the Bank of Canada’s rate hold impact the housing market? – Bloomberg
  • [Georgia] Gross rental yields in Georgia: Tbilisi and Batumi – Global Property Guide
  • [Germany] Gross rental yields in Germany: Berlin and 7 other cities – Global Property Guide
  • [Japan] Gross rental yields in Japan: Tokyo and 7 other cities Global Property Guide
  • [Netherlands] Gross rental yields in Netherlands: Amsterdam and 3 other cities – Global Property Guide
  • [New Zealand] Upzoning New Zealand. How a small country started building a lot of homes – Work in Progress
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand House Prices Rise at Slower Pace, CoreLogic Says – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Reliable UK Mortgage Payers Deliver Juiciest Debt Returns Since 2009. Mortgage delinquincies seen at less than 1.3% in 2023. Residential mortgage-backed notes delivered over 6% last year – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Five of the best books about the UK housing crisis. From costs to quality, housing can make you despair. Our best five books explain the politics behind the problems – and the solutions – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] London’s Sky-High Home Prices Are Most Affordable in Decade. Zoopla data shows property in the capital underperforming UK. London homes are still the most expensive in Britain – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise more than expected in January, says Nationwide. Month-on-month increase of 0.7% is fastest pace since October as mortgage rates ease – FT

On cross-country:

  • ‘Rent is too damn high!’ Europe’s growing housing crisis – Politico

Working papers and conferences:

  • 4th Workshop on Rent Control on June 20 and 21 – DIW Berlin
  • The effect of new housing supply in structural models: a forecasting performance evaluation – European Central Bank
  • Direct Rental Assistance: Returning to the Roots of Housing Allowances – SSRN
  • Behavioral Lock-In: Aggregate Implications of Reference Dependence in the Housing Market – SSRN
  • Decomposing Fire Sale Discounts in Housing Markets – SSRN
  • The Effect of New Housing Supply in Structural Models: A Forecasting Performance Evaluation – SSRN
  • House of Cards?

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Housing View – January 26, 2024

On cross-country:

  • Chinese property developers shrivel up in Australia, New Zealand but are they ‘hibernating’ for better times? Many Chinese developers in Australia and New Zealand have closed or scaled back, amid a property crisis in China, weak demand and higher construction costs. Chinese property development in Australasia soared around 2013 at the height of China’s ‘go out policy’ that prompted Chinese firms and citizens to seek overseas investments – South China Morning Post


Working papers and conferences:

  • Racial and ethnic differences in the financial returns to home purchases – Real Estate Economics
  • Gender, Stress, and Job Performance: Agents in the Resale Housing Market – SSRN
  • Investors in Housing Markets: Comparing Two Booms – SSRN
  • Report on the Potential Impacts of Property Tax Abatement on Rental Housing Construction in Boston – SSRN
  • The Impact of COVID-19 on Real Estate Markets in Germany – SSRN
  • Mortgages, House Prices, and Business Cycle Dynamic: A Medium-Run Exploration Using the Continuous Wavelet Transform – SSRN


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • US home prices forecast to climb as mortgage rates fall to 6.3% in 2024 – Goldman Sachs
  • 2023 was slowest year for US home sales in nearly 30 years as high mortgage rates frustrated buyers – Quartz
  • Mortgage Rates Expected to Dip Below 6 Percent in 2024, Boosting Home Sales – Fannie Mae
  • December Existing Home Sales: Higher Mortgage Rates Pulled Supply And Sales Lower in 2023. Existing home sales dropped again in December, ending the year at 4.09 million, the lowest level in nearly 30 years – Zillow
  • Is This Really ‘the Worst Time to Buy a Home’? Maybe — but it’s not a terrible time to rent. – New York Times
  • Redfin Reports Pending Home Sales Rose 4% in December—Biggest Jump in Over Two Years – Redfin
  • For Property Investors, the Price of Homes Is Still Not Right. Higher interest rates, record home prices are cited for pullback in buying – Wall Street Journal
  • Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – Freddie Mac
  • 1.54 million Total Housing Completions in 2023 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2007
  • Completions Will Likely Increase Further in 2024 – Calculated Risk
  • Finally, America’s Home Inventory Is Rising: Here’s Where It’s Grown the Most – Realtor.com
  • Redfin Home Price Index: Prices Rose 0.4% in December—the Smallest Increase in Six Months – Redfin


On the US—other developments:    

  • America’s Housing Rebound. Despite years of the highest real mortgage interest rates in almost two decades, construction and renovation spending have been holding steady, if not accelerating outright. – The Overshoot
  • The Economy Is Starting to Look Normal—Housing Isn’t. Cooling inflation, a moderating job market and steady growth are making the economy look more familiar. But housing is a complete mess. – Wall Street Journal
  • 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December; California Home Sales Down 7.1% YoY in December – Calculated Risk
  • Boomers won’t part with their homes, and that’s a problem for young families – CNN 
  • More than 43 million US households were cost burdened in 2022 – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
  • Biden’s New Gift to the Housing Lobby. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac raise their loan-guarantee limits to new heights. – Wall Street Journal
  • Record Number of Office-to-Apartment Conversions Planned in 2024. Washington, New York and Dallas lead the trend among US cities. Housing demand, office vacancies drive conversions: RentCafe – Bloomberg
  • Home Price-to-Income Ratio Reaches Record High – Joint Center for Housing Studies
  • Affordable Housing Gets Boost in Congressional Tax Reform Proposal. The bipartisan tax deal would raise allocations for the Low Income Housing Tax Credit, a critical tool for encouraging new home construction. – Bloomberg
  • To meet today’s critical housing challenges, HUD needs a broader, bolder vision – Brookings
  • Builders’ Top Challenges for 2024 – NAHB
  • Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December – Calculated Risk 


On China:

  • Desperate Chinese Property Developers Resort to Bizarre Marketing Tactics. The country’s real-estate slump is getting worse—and looks set to drag on for years – Wall Street Journal


On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Australian houses are less affordable than they have been in decades. In spite of rising borrowing costs, prices have stayed stubbornly resilient – The Economist
  • [Brazil] How to Buy Property in Brazil as a Foreigner – Global Property Guide
  • [Canada] Home price declines in big cities drag down Teranet-National Bank index – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Canada Caps Foreign Student Visas Amid Housing Shortage. Immigration Minister Marc Miller unveils new limits on permits. Number of foreign students tripled to 1 million over 10 years – Bloomberg
  • [Egypt] How to Buy Property in Egypt as a Foreigner – Global Property Guide
  • [Egypt] Gross rental yields in Egypt: Cairo and Alexandria – Global Property Guide
  • [Ireland] Irish house prices close to or at peak, estate agents say. An SCSI report predicts house prices will rise by just 1 per cent this year – The Irish Times
  • [Netherlands] The Netherlands’ housing market downturn continues – Global Property Guide
  • [New Zealand] RBNZ Proposes Looser Low-Deposit Home Loan Rules With New Tool – Bloomberg
  • [Spain] How to Buy Property in Spain as a Foreigner – Global Property Guide
  • [Spain] Deteriorating affordability will dampen Spanish house price growth –ING
  • [Turkey] Turkey’s strong house price growth is just an illusion – Global Property Guide 
  • [United Kingdom] Global investors could spark UK housebuilding boom. Institutional backers attracted by high rental demand and low volatility of residential property market – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK Home Sellers Made £100,000 Profit Per Deal Even In Tough Year. Average seller made about 9% less profit than in 2022. Declining mortgage rates could help turn the tide this year – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Ministers’ 99% mortgage idea could overheat UK housing market, say experts. Scheme to support first-time buyers that would appeal to young voters reportedly being considered by No 10 – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] Housing ombudsman in England calls to re-establish link between housing and health – The Guardian

On cross-country:

  • Chinese property developers shrivel up in Australia, New Zealand but are they ‘hibernating’ for better times? Many Chinese developers in Australia and New Zealand have closed or scaled back, amid a property crisis in China, weak demand and higher construction costs. Chinese property development in Australasia soared around 2013 at the height of China’s ‘go out policy’ that prompted Chinese firms and citizens to seek overseas investments – South China Morning Post

Working papers and conferences:

  • Racial and ethnic differences in the financial returns to home purchases – Real Estate Economics
  • Gender,

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Housing View – January 19, 2024

On cross-country:

  • The housing crisis is still being underplayed. Young adults are being robbed of the milestones that marked the lives of previous generations – FT


Working papers and conferences:

  • Why Has Construction Productivity Stagnated? The Role of Land-Use Regulation – SSRN
  • The economic effects of real estate investors – Real Estate Economics
  • Monetary policy and housing market cycles – Macroeconomic Dynamics
  • Regional House Price Cohesion in the UK: Recent Trends and Covid – SSRN
  • Roof or Real Estate? An Agent-Based Model Of Housing Affordability in the Netherlands – SSRN
  • Housing Costs, College Enrollment, and Student Mobility – SSRN
  • Discrimination in the Austrian Rental Housing Market: The Effect of Information Concerning First and Second Generation Immigrant Status – SSRN
  • Housing Unaffordability in Italy: Recognising the Housing Problem Dispelling Myths – SSRN


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • U.S. 30-year mortgage predominance doesn’t seem to delay impact of Fed rate hikes – Dallas Fed
  • Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP – Calculated Risk
  • Inside a Plan to Save Homeowners Hundreds of Dollars Closing Their Mortgages. Little-known alternative to title insurance gains support from Fannie Mae – Wall Street Journal
  • Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December. The Lowest Annual Sales Rates since 1995 – Calculated Risk
  • Hoping To Buy a Home in 2024? Here’s Where Prices Have Been Rising—and Falling—the Most – Realtor.com
  • Single Family Starts Up Year-over-year in December; Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction – Calculated Risk


On the US—other developments:    

  • Housing reform should actually add housing. Affordable-only upzonings are a big political struggle for minimal gain – Slow Boring
  • Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024 – Calculated Risk
  • 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December. It appears annual sales for 2023 will be at the lowest level since 1995 – Calculated Risk
  • 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December. Annual sales for 2023 will be at the lowest level since 1995 – Calculated Risk
  • To Ease Housing Crunch, Theme Parks Are Becoming Homebuilders. Orlando, Florida, is on the front line of an industry trend as major employers like Universal and Disney look to close the area’s workforce housing gap. – Bloomberg
  • Housing Vouchers Won’t Solve America’s Homelessness Crisis – Jacobin
  • Not Even Molten Lava Can Cool This Hot Housing Market. The eastern section of Hawaii’s Big Island continues to attract home buyers searching for a cheap piece of paradise – Wall Street Journal


On China:

  • China Housing Slump to Continue Into 2025, Says Ex-PBOC Official. Home sales will fall further this year and next, Sheng says. Green shoots emerged in November and December, he adds – Bloomberg
  • China’s Property Market May Keep Struggling Despite Stimulus. Property prices have extended their decline in the wake of property stimulus measures – Wall Street Journal


On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Neither a pandemic nor interest rate rises: can anything dent the Australian housing market? The entire political focus over the past 40 years has been to keep house prices from falling, or even abating – The Guardian
  • [Canada] Canada, facing housing shortage, to consider cap on international students – Reuters
  • [Canada] Canadian home sales jumped 9% in December, but prices continued to fall – The Globe and Mail
  • [Ireland] ‘The Social Contract Has Been Completely Ruptured’: Ireland’s Housing Crisis. Soaring rents have left many struggling to afford homes in Dublin and have created a generational divide. Two-thirds of younger adults in the city live with their parents. – New York Times
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand House Prices Rise for Third Month, CoreLogic Says. Property value gains in 2024 may undershoot expectations. Outlook hinges on whether mortgage interest rates move lower – Bloomberg
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand Houses Are Selling Faster as Buyers Return to the Market. Median time to sell in December was lowest since March 2022. House prices post first annual gain in 18 months, REINZ says – Bloomberg
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices unchanged, activity improving -REINZ – Reuters
  • [United Arab Emirates] Dubai Sales of $25 Million Homes Double as Global Elite Move In. Wealthy buyers spent $2.27 billion on luxury homes last year. Most expensive transaction was for a $136 million apartment – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Why is it still so hard to build new homes in England? Politicians agree that shaking up the planning system is vital to the British economy, but Nimby-ism is stubbornly resilient – FT
  • [United Kingdom] Britain’s Biggest Mortgage Lender Is Watching for the Return of Global Inflation Pressures – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall at fastest pace in more than a decade. ONS data shows biggest drop in London and reflects impact of high interest rates on property market – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK Housing Market Enters 2024 With Momentum Building, Agents Say. RICS survey finds sales picking up, pressure on prices easing. Buyer demand being boosted by decline in mortgage costs – Bloomberg

On cross-country:

  • The housing crisis is still being underplayed. Young adults are being robbed of the milestones that marked the lives of previous generations – FT

Working papers and conferences:

  • Why Has Construction Productivity Stagnated? The Role of Land-Use Regulation – SSRN
  • The economic effects of real estate investors – Real Estate Economics
  • Monetary policy and housing market cycles – Macroeconomic Dynamics
  • Regional House Price Cohesion in the UK: Recent Trends and Covid – SSRN
  • Roof or Real Estate?

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Housing View – January 12, 2024

On cross-country:

  • Housing Affordability Remains Stretched Amid Higher Interest Rate Environment. Prospective home buyers face high prices and elevated borrowing costs, while homeowners refrain from listing their properties – IMF
  • House prices and rents increased between Q2 and Q3 2023 – Eurostat
  • Letter: Why housing is such a tricky emissions reduction target – FT
  • Europe’s property boom lowered inequality, ECB saysReuters


Working papers and conferences:

  • Haste or Waste? The Role of Presale in Residential Housing – NBER
  • Refinancing Frictions, Mortgage Pricing and Redistribution – NBER
  • Energy Hogs and Energy Angels: What Does Residential Electricity Usage Really Tell Us About Profligate Consumption? – NBER
  • Neighborhood Effects of Buy-to-Rent and Build-To Rent Public Housing – SSRN
  • Does Homeownership Preserve Wealth for Low- Income and Minority Senior Households? – SSRN


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Why Buffalo will be 2024’s Hottest Market. Zillow’s annual predictions for the hottest housing markets of the year. Factors include expected home value growth, projected change in owner-occupied households and job growth compared to new construction. – Zillow
  • Moody’s: Apartment Vacancy Rate increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate in “Uncharted Territory” at Record High. Apartment Net Absorption “Plummeted” in Q4 – Calculated Risk
  • US Home Price Insights – January 2024 – CoreLogic
  • Why This Is a Good Year to Be a Renter, in Three Charts. Renters have more options and negotiating power than a year ago – Wall Street Journal
  • US home prices jump another 5% on tumbling mortgage rates and tight supply – Business Insider


On the US—other developments:    

  • Buying Home and Auto Insurance Used to Be Routine. It’s Becoming a Nightmare. Huge losses from national disasters prompt industry to jack up prices and pull back from some markets; ‘worst possible scenario’ for consumers – Wall Street Journal
  • US homebuyer confidence up in December; more see loan rates falling – Reuters
  • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December. Early Reports Suggest Sales in December were Down Slightly Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
  • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024 – Calculated Risk


On other countries:  

  • [Canada] Canada Offers Cities Money to Spur Home Building. Effort to reshape municipal zoning comes amid citizen anger over low housing inventory, elevated rents – Wall Street Journal
  • [Canada] Canadians Give Trudeau Low Marks for Housing Affordability in Poll. Ontario, West are more negative than Quebec, Atlantic region. Government has tried to accelerate building through incentives – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Canadian seniors are selling their homes later in life. What will this mean for the housing market? – Canada Mortgage Trends
  • [Denmark] Denmark’s housing market conditions worsening – Global Property Guide
  • [France] France’s housing market momentum stalls – Global Property Guide
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s housing market remains depressed – Global Property Guide
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand Home-Building Costs Rise at Slowest Pace Since 2016 – Bloomberg
  • [Singapore] Singapore’s house prices still increasing, despite falling demand – Global Property Guide
  • [South Korea] South Korea president vows to ease regulations to boost home supplies – Reuters
  • [Thailand] Thailand’s house prices rising modestly, buoyed by recovering demand – Global Property Guide
  • [United Kingdom] What Does 2024 Hold for UK House Prices? Given where mortgage rates are heading, a tepid recovery looks to be on the cards. – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Britain’s housing market may be ‘past peak pain’ but what will 2024 bring? Second year of falling prices expected though recovery is likely in the second half as interest rates come down – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise for third consecutive month, Halifax data shows. Supply shortage pushes property valuations to highest level since last March – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Defy Gloom With Gain in 2023, Halifax Says. Prices have stagnated in 2023 instead of plunging 10%. Outlook for a more modest decline this year or even gains – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Spending on affordable housing in England to be slashed in 2024. Planned investment by housing associations drops due to budget pressures – FT
  • [United Kingdom] The reasons for the housing crisis go beyond the green belt. Readers respond to the building design tsar’s comments on housebuilding – The Guardian
  •  [United Kingdom] UK Housing Market Gloom Is Overdone — Again. Britain’s home values will prove resilient this year. – Bloomberg

On cross-country:

  • Housing Affordability Remains Stretched Amid Higher Interest Rate Environment. Prospective home buyers face high prices and elevated borrowing costs, while homeowners refrain from listing their properties – IMF
  • House prices and rents increased between Q2 and Q3 2023 – Eurostat
  • Letter: Why housing is such a tricky emissions reduction target – FT
  • Europe’s property boom lowered inequality, ECB saysReuters

Working papers and conferences:

  • Haste or Waste?

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

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