Housing View – June 21, 2024

On cross-country:

  • Why house prices are surging once again. In America, Australia and parts of Europe, property markets have shrugged off higher interest rates – The Economist
  • European Residential Update – Knight Frank
  • These cities are now so expensive they’re considered ‘impossibly unaffordable’ – CNN

Working papers and conferences:

  • The Price of Housing in the United States, 1890–2006 – Philadelphia Fed
  • Rent Guarantee Insurance – NBER
  • Printing Away the Mortgages: Fiscal Inflation and the Post-Covid Boom – NBER
  • Property Insurance and Disaster Risk: New Evidence from Mortgage Escrow Data – NBER
  • A Faster Convergence of Shelter Prices and Market Rent: Implications for Inflation – Boston Fed
  • Paying Too Much? Borrower Sophistication and Overpayment in the U.S. Mortgage Market – Philadelphia Fed
  • Affordable home ownership can lead to stronger relationships – VoxEU
  • Printing Away the Mortgages: Fiscal Inflation and the Post-COVID Boom – SSRN 

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Rent Hikes Loom, Posing Threat to Inflation Fight. Rents in several Northeast, Midwest cities are rising this year; Fed chair calls housing situation complicated – Wall Street Journal
  • The U.S. is now short 4.5 million homes as the housing deficit grows – Zillow
  • High Mortgage Rates Act as a Drag on Builder Confidence – NAHB
  • Secret #30 – Mortgages Are Phenomenally Riskier Today Than When the U.S. Home Ownership Rate Increased the Fastest – Real Estate Decoded
  • Secret #33 – Easier Mortgages Easily Turn Into Higher House Prices – Real Estate Decoded
  • 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in May – Calculated Risk
  • 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in May; California Home Sales Down 6% YoY in May – Calculated Risk
  • The federal government’s new plan to (maybe) give renters straight cash. A bold experiment to help tenants is advancing. – Vox
  • When will housing prices drop? – Yahoo Finance
  • Cities with empty commercial space and housing shortages are converting office buildings into apartments – here’s what they’re learning – The Conversation  
  • 87% of Outstanding Mortgage Debt has a Sub-6% Rate – Realtor.com
  • Secret #31 – All Those Decades of “Affordable” Mortgages Didn’t Increase Home Ownership – Real Estate Decoded
  • Secret #32 – “Affordable” Mortgages are Affordable for the Government – Real Estate Decoded
  • Housing Starts Retreat in May – NAHB
  • Home Flipping Activity and Profits Both Rise Across U.S. in First Quarter of 2024 – ATTOM

On the US—other developments:    

  • Comparing the Current Housing Market to the 1978 to 1982 period – Calculated Risk
  • The Week in Review. Week of June 10 — taking stock of home price changes – Home Economics
  • Residential Building Material Prices Remain Relatively Unchanged in May – NAHB
  • Housing costs are clouding an otherwise glowing economy – CNN
  • The Divisive Housing Perk Adding Thousands of Dollars to Lawmaker Pay. Some in Congress turn down the allowance for fear of a political backlash – Wall Street Journal
  • Is U.S. Housing Becoming (A Little) More Affordable? – S&P Global
  • Top 10 U.S. Housing Markets Least At-Risk of Declines in Q1 2024 – ATTOM
  • ‘The most challenging home buying market we’ve ever seen’ – Politico
  • The Connections Between Rental Deserts, Segregation, and Restrictive Zoning – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
  • Amazon Promised to Deliver Affordable Housing. How’s It Doing? As the tech giant adds $1.4 billion to its Housing Equity Fund, developers and advocates in Seattle, Nashville and DC reflect on the company’s local impact. – Bloomberg
  • ‘I Live in Hell’: Anti-Growth Fervor Grips US South After Pandemic Boom. Local groups are pushing for restrictions on new developments, saying an influx of residents has strained resources. – Bloomberg

On China:

  • China Property Drag Is Getting Worse, Factory Output Disappoints. Industry expansion lost momentum in May as tariff threats loom. Retail spending picked up but remains weak by past standards – Bloomberg
  • China Real Estate, Production Slide Highlights More Stimulus Needed – Bloomberg   
  • Early repayments shrink China’s mortgage-backed securities market by 65%. Property owners rush to pay down debts or refinance at lower rates in absence of other investment options – FT
  • China new home prices fall at fastest clip in nearly 10 years – Reuters
  • China’s Housing Market Woes Deepen Despite Stimulus. Home prices declined at a faster pace in May in major cities, while other data show a mixed picture for the world’s second-largest economy – Wall Street Journal
  • China’s Housing Market Crash Intensifies – Newsweek  
  • China new home prices drop at fastest rate in nearly a decade. Property glut holds down prices despite government attempts to revive market – The Guardian

On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Unpacking multi-speed conditions in Australia’s housing markets – CoreLogic
  • [Australia] Australia’s NSW State to Increase Duties on Foreign Home Buyers – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Vancouver housing is ‘impossibly unaffordable,’ says new report. Vancouver has been the first, second or third least affordable major market for each of the last 16 years – Vancouver Sun
  • [Canada] Canada Housing Starts Hit Highest Level in Seven Months – Bloomberg
  • [Dominican Republic] The Dominican Republic’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
  • [France] France’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
  • [Germany] What investors should learn from a Berlin housing saga. Corporate boards might be surprised by some of the ideas floating around on Europe’s left-leaning political wing – FT
  • [Ireland] Irish house prices now 10% above their boom-time peak. Latest official barometer indicates house prices rose an average rate of 7.9 per cent in the 12 months to April this year – The Irish Times
  • [New Zealand] House prices continue to fall, with Auckland’s dropping the most – RNZ
  • [Portugal] The Mayor Who Sees Airbnb as an Agent for Good. In Portugal’s second-largest city, officials are banning new short-term units in busy areas while allowing them as a basis for urban regeneration in neglected quarters. – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Housing demand wanes as buyers bank on rate cut – BBC
  • [United Kingdom] Does it make more sense to buy or rent a property in the UK? On average, buying a home with a capital and interest mortgage is 11 per cent more expensive than renting – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices remain near record high with little sign of election impact. Rightmove says demand from buyers up 5% with caution detected only among would-be sellers at top of market – The Guardian

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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