The Unassuming Economist

Links to the week’s top housing market stories.

On Cross-Country

• Why house prices are surging once again – The Economist.
• Ottawa housing market ranked as ‘severely unaffordable’ in global survey – CTV News

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• House Prices In Pandemic-Era Boom Towns Are Going Bust As Prices Fall – Yahoo Finance
• You Might Be Buying Your House at the Top of the Market – WSJ
• FHFA House Price Index Up 0.2 Percent in April; Up 6.3 Percent from Last Year – FHFA
• Texas House Prices Fall in Multiple Cities – Newsweek
• California House Prices Plunge Up to $400k as Insurance Crisis Deepens – Newsweek
• US consumer confidence retreats slightly; house prices remain elevated – Yahoo Finance
• Mortgage rates fall slightly to 6.86% – FoxBusiness
• Mortgage rates just dropped to a 2-month low. Here’s why you may want to buy now – CBS News
• Here’s where U.S. rents are rising — and falling — the fastest – CNBC
• Strain of rent on wages in WA is among highest in U.S., report finds – Washington State Standard
• Rents Surged in These U.S. Cities in June – Mansion Global
• MONTHLY NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION, MAY 2024 – US Census

On China:

• China’s big housing correction is not over – FT
• China’s Housing Market Crash Intensifies – Newsweek
• China’s Housing Market Woes Deepen Despite Stimulus – WSJ
• China Home-Price Slump Accelerates Despite More Stimulus – Bloomberg
• China new home prices fall at fastest clip in nearly 10 years – Reuters

On cross-country:

• Why house prices are surging once again. In America, Australia and parts of Europe, property markets have shrugged off higher interest rates – The Economist
• European Residential Update – Knight Frank
• These cities are now so expensive they’re considered ‘impossibly unaffordable’ – CNN

Working papers and conferences:

• The Price of Housing in the United States, 1890–2006 – Philadelphia Fed
• Rent Guarantee Insurance – NBER
• Printing Away the Mortgages: Fiscal Inflation and the Post-Covid Boom – NBER
• Property Insurance and Disaster Risk: New Evidence from Mortgage Escrow Data – NBER
• A Faster Convergence of Shelter Prices and Market Rent: Implications for Inflation – Boston Fed
• Paying Too Much? Borrower Sophistication and Overpayment in the U.S. Mortgage Market – Philadelphia Fed
• Affordable home ownership can lead to stronger relationships – VoxEU
• Printing Away the Mortgages: Fiscal Inflation and the Post-COVID Boom – SSRN 

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Rent Hikes Loom, Posing Threat to Inflation Fight. Rents in several Northeast, Midwest cities are rising this year; Fed chair calls housing situation complicated – Wall Street Journal
• The U.S. is now short 4.5 million homes as the housing deficit grows – Zillow
• High Mortgage Rates Act as a Drag on Builder Confidence – NAHB
• Secret #30 – Mortgages Are Phenomenally Riskier Today Than When the U.S. Home Ownership Rate Increased the Fastest – Real Estate Decoded
• Secret #33 – Easier Mortgages Easily Turn Into Higher House Prices – Real Estate Decoded
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in May – Calculated Risk
• 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in May; California Home Sales Down 6% YoY in May – Calculated Risk
• The federal government’s new plan to (maybe) give renters straight cash. A bold experiment to help tenants is advancing. – Vox
• When will housing prices drop? – Yahoo Finance
• Cities with empty commercial space and housing shortages are converting office buildings into apartments – here’s what they’re learning – The Conversation  
• 87% of Outstanding Mortgage Debt has a Sub-6% Rate – Realtor.com
• Secret #31 – All Those Decades of “Affordable” Mortgages Didn’t Increase Home Ownership – Real Estate Decoded
• Secret #32 – “Affordable” Mortgages are Affordable for the Government – Real Estate Decoded
• Housing Starts Retreat in May – NAHB
• Home Flipping Activity and Profits Both Rise Across U.S. in First Quarter of 2024 – ATTOM

On the US—other developments:    

• Comparing the Current Housing Market to the 1978 to 1982 period – Calculated Risk
• The Week in Review. Week of June 10 — taking stock of home price changes – Home Economics
• Residential Building Material Prices Remain Relatively Unchanged in May – NAHB
• Housing costs are clouding an otherwise glowing economy – CNN
• The Divisive Housing Perk Adding Thousands of Dollars to Lawmaker Pay. Some in Congress turn down the allowance for fear of a political backlash – Wall Street Journal
• Is U.S. Housing Becoming (A Little) More Affordable? – S&P Global
• Top 10 U.S. Housing Markets Least At-Risk of Declines in Q1 2024 – ATTOM
• ‘The most challenging home buying market we’ve ever seen’ – Politico
• The Connections Between Rental Deserts, Segregation, and Restrictive Zoning – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Amazon Promised to Deliver Affordable Housing. How’s It Doing? As the tech giant adds $1.4 billion to its Housing Equity Fund, developers and advocates in Seattle, Nashville and DC reflect on the company’s local impact. – Bloomberg
• ‘I Live in Hell’: Anti-Growth Fervor Grips US South After Pandemic Boom. Local groups are pushing for restrictions on new developments, saying an influx of residents has strained resources. – Bloomberg

On China:

• China Property Drag Is Getting Worse, Factory Output Disappoints. Industry expansion lost momentum in May as tariff threats loom. Retail spending picked up but remains weak by past standards – Bloomberg
• China Real Estate, Production Slide Highlights More Stimulus Needed – Bloomberg   
• Early repayments shrink China’s mortgage-backed securities market by 65%. Property owners rush to pay down debts or refinance at lower rates in absence of other investment options – FT
• China new home prices fall at fastest clip in nearly 10 years – Reuters
• China’s Housing Market Woes Deepen Despite Stimulus. Home prices declined at a faster pace in May in major cities, while other data show a mixed picture for the world’s second-largest economy – Wall Street Journal
• China’s Housing Market Crash Intensifies – Newsweek  
• China new home prices drop at fastest rate in nearly a decade. Property glut holds down prices despite government attempts to revive market – The Guardian

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Unpacking multi-speed conditions in Australia’s housing markets – CoreLogic
• [Australia] Australia’s NSW State to Increase Duties on Foreign Home Buyers – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Vancouver housing is ‘impossibly unaffordable,’ says new report. Vancouver has been the first, second or third least affordable major market for each of the last 16 years – Vancouver Sun
• [Canada] Canada Housing Starts Hit Highest Level in Seven Months – Bloomberg
• [Dominican Republic] The Dominican Republic’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [France] France’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Germany] What investors should learn from a Berlin housing saga. Corporate boards might be surprised by some of the ideas floating around on Europe’s left-leaning political wing – FT
• [Ireland] Irish house prices now 10% above their boom-time peak. Latest official barometer indicates house prices rose an average rate of 7.9 per cent in the 12 months to April this year – The Irish Times
• [New Zealand] House prices continue to fall, with Auckland’s dropping the most – RNZ
• [Portugal] The Mayor Who Sees Airbnb as an Agent for Good. In Portugal’s second-largest city, officials are banning new short-term units in busy areas while allowing them as a basis for urban regeneration in neglected quarters. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Housing demand wanes as buyers bank on rate cut – BBC
• [United Kingdom] Does it make more sense to buy or rent a property in the UK? On average, buying a home with a capital and interest mortgage is 11 per cent more expensive than renting – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices remain near record high with little sign of election impact. Rightmove says demand from buyers up 5% with caution detected only among would-be sellers at top of market – The Guardian

On cross-country:

• Surging property prices: When will Europe’s cities become affordable again? – The Conversation
• As homeownership falls, “generation rent” needs a policy leg up – The Economist

Working papers and conferences:

• The euro, housing policies, and sports venues – Journal of Economic Perspectives
• The Effects of Short-Term Rental Regulation: Insights from Chicago – NBER
• Homeowners Insurance and Housing Prices – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• House Price Appreciation by State and Metro Area: The First Quarter of 2024 – NAHB
• Expert Panel Sees Home Price Growth Easing in 2024 and 2025 as Home Listings Trend Upward – Fannie Mae   
• Homebuying Sentiment Hits New Survey Low. Citing Unaffordability, 86% of Consumers Say It’s a Bad Time to Buy a Home – Fannie Mae
• Housing Costs Cool, but Remain a Source of Concern. Housing costs were up 5.4 percent in May from a year earlier, the smallest increase in more than two years. But monthly progress has slowed. – New York Times
• Mortgage Rates Remained Elevated in May – NAHB
• Mortgage Rates Fall Under 7% as Buyers Face a ‘Bittersweet Market’ – Realtor.com
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in May. Early Reports Suggest NAR reported Sales might be up slightly Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May – Calculated Risk
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2024 – Calculated Risk
• Housing market inventory in Texas is back above pre-pandemic levels. These states could be next. ResiClub analyzed the latest inventory data from Realtor.com. Here’s what it shows about shifts in the housing market. – Fast Company
• Americans have never felt worse about the housing market. A whopping 86% of consumers said it’s a bad time to buy a home, according to a new Fannie Mae survey – Quartz
• Q1 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO. REO: lender Real Estate Owned – Calculated Risk
• Pandemic Boomtown Housing Prices Slow but Retain Most of Their Gains – CoreLogic
• Housing Markets on Florida’s West Coast Are Cooling Faster Than Anywhere Else in the U.S., With Supply Rising and Demand Falling – Redfin 
• New York City Might Finally Curb Broker Fees for Renters. A majority of the City Council supports a bill that would transfer the cost of most broker fees from renters to landlords. – New York Times
• Here’s How Many Home Sales Were ‘Lost’ by the Mortgage Rate Lock-In Effect – Realtor.com
• Higher Risk of Housing Market Slowdown Continues in California, New Jersey, and Illinois – ATTOM

On the US—other developments:    

• Hidden Costs of Homeownership For a Typical Single-Family Home Total Over $18,000 Per Year. Average costs of owning and maintaining a home have risen 26% since 2020 – Bankrate  
• Homeownership Costs in US Jumped 26% Since Pandemic Began. Bills for taxes, insurance, energy and maintenance soared. Typical buyers spending $300 a month more than in March 2020 – Bloomberg
• High Housing Costs Are Consuming Household Incomes – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• More than 900 Housing Professionals Urge Congress to Act on Affordability Crisis – NAHB
• How Will the Economy Impact Housing for the Rest of 2024? – NAHB
• Best and Worst Metro Areas to Be a First-Time Homebuyer – AEI
• Industrial Realignment. Prologis (PLD) on the Trends Shaping the Industrial Real Estate Market, Labor Issues, and “The Gundo Bros” – Lewis Enterprises
• CRE in Trouble – Apollo
• The Pain in Real Estate Continues – Apollo
• Homes have popped up on the National Mall – showing they can be built fast and cheap – NPR
• Week in Review. Week of June 3 — Payrolls pop, Sentiment sags – Home Economics
• Secret #25 – The Black Home Ownership Rate is Higher Today in the South than in the North – Real Estate Decoded 
• Secret #26 – The Black Home Ownership Rate Is NOT Getting Any Closer to the White Home Ownership Rate! – Real Estate Decoded
• Secret #29 – For Mortgages, “Affordable” is Code for “Higher-Foreclosure” – Real Estate Decoded
• The housing market crisis shows that the tool the Fed is using to lower inflation is doing the exact opposite, former White House adviser says – Yahoo Finance
• Can Your Town Solve the Housing Crisis? In Cincinnati, planners, developers and designers connected to the New Urbanism and Strong Towns movements gathered to find bottom-up ways to build more homes. – Bloomberg
• She Made an Offer on a Condo. Then the Seller Learned She Was Black. A Black woman claims a white homeowner tried to pull out of a sale because of her race. – New York Times

On China:

• China accelerates policy support rollout amid mixed data. Key economic indicators are mixed in China and, in fact, were mostly weaker than expected last month. So, policymakers are now stepping up support for the property sector in particular – ING
• China’s Homeowners and Banks Are Trapped in a Mortgage Mess. Lenders said to raise negative equity concerns with regulators. Homeowners mull defaulting on debt, selling or delaying plans – Bloomberg
• China’s Call for ‘Open Mind’ Spurs Hope of New Housing Measures – Bloomberg
• Can China Turn Its Property Glut Into Affordable Housing? A previous plan to build 36 million homes led to widespread corruption. – Foreign Policy
• China central bank promotes relending to speed up sales of housing stock – Reuters  

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Brisbane to introduce Airbnb permits for property owners amid housing crisis crackdown. Mayor Adrian Schrinner says property owners would now need appropriate planning approvals, body corporate support and a 24-7 property manager for short-term rentals – The Guardian
• [Australia] Australian capital city rents have biggest monthly fall in over four years but crisis ‘far from over’. Sydney house rents still nation’s highest but an expected rise in vacancy rates this winter could provide some relief to tenants, expert says – The Guardian
• [Greece] Greece’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s Identity Crisis Fuels $270 Billion Property Wipeout. The five-year property downturn is emblematic of a steady loss of faith in the city’s status as Asia’s premier financial hub. – Bloomberg
• [Mexico] Mexico’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Netherlands] Home building, not rent cuts, holds the key to solving Netherlands’ housing shortages. The Dutch government plans to improve housing affordability for middle-income earners by expanding existing rent regulations and introducing a rule that two-thirds of housing construction must be affordable. However, these two policies are expected to slow down housing production, which will ultimately increase the housing shortage – ING
• [Sweden] How an American Dream of Housing Became a Reality in Sweden. The U.S. once looked to modular construction as an efficient way to build lots of housing at scale, but Sweden picked up the idea and put it into practice – New York Times
• [United Kingdom] UK Rents Rise at the Slowest Pace Since 2021 as Demand Eases. Average cost of renting still higher than before the pandemic. Low investment in new lets means supply shortage will persist – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices stabilise as rising wages and consumer confidence steady market. Average price of a home dipped by 0.1%, says Halifax, bringing cost of typical property down to £288,688 – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Social rent homes in England fall by more than quarter of a million in decade. Charities have called on all political parties to address the ‘shameful record’ on social housing and build more homes – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK mortgages in arrears hit near 8-year high. Bank of England data points to continuing impact of high borrowing costs on households – FT
• [United Kingdom] Sunak promises to relaunch Help to Buy scheme – BBC
• [United Kingdom] Conservative manifesto puts home ownership up top – but ignores housing affordability – The Conversation
• [United Kingdom] UK Housing Market Loses Momentum as Interest-Rate Cut Hopes Diminish. RICS says gauge of new buyer demand drops to six-month low. Housing market emerging as key battleground in July 4 election – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] A House Price Boon for the Next UK Government. ‘Higher-for-longer’ interest rates plus rising wages mean the affordability problem may solve itself. – Bloomberg

On cross-country:

• Demographia International Housing Affordability—2024 Edition – Demographia
• Secret #17 – U.S. Housing Policies Almost Moved Toward Vienna or Singapore in the 1960s – Real Estate Decoded

Working papers and conferences:

• The Evolving Structure of Housing Markets: Institutional Investors and Their Influential Role During the Great Recession – Philadelphia Fed
• Temperatures and Search: Evidence From the Housing Market – SSRN
• The Capitalization of Energy Labels into House Prices. Evidence from Italy – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• US Homebuyers Start to Revolt Over Steep Prices – Bloomberg
• Developers Sit on Empty Lots After Historic Apartment Boom. Higher interest rates and flattening rents scuttle projects – Wall Street Journal
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in April and a Look Ahead to May Sales – Calculated Risk
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in April; Up 6.5% Year-over-year. Over the last 3 months, the seasonal adjusted index has increased at a 3.7% annual rate – Calculated Risk
• Private Residential Construction Spending Edges Up in April – NAHB
• These US cities are due for a housing price drop, real estate analysts find – The Hill
• Housing Vacancies and Homeownership – US Census
• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• Renters Are Staying Longer Amid Rising Housing Costs And High Mortgage Rates – Yahoo Finance
• May 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• Single-Family and Multifamily Production Headed in Opposite Directions Across Geographies – NAHB
• US Home Price Insights – June 2024 – CoreLogic

On the US—other developments:    

• What’s actually happening in the housing market, according to top housing economist Ali Wolf. There’s been a major shift in the market, says housing economist Ali Wolf—and the big builders are dominating. – Fast Company
• The Week in Review. Week of May 27th — Rents Retreat as Prices Peak – Home Economics
• Secret #16 – Economic Fundamentals Explain Less Than Half of House Price Changes – Real Estate Decoded
• Secret #19 – Worse Than Redlining. To Be Pre-Approved for FHA Mortgages, FHA Required New Home Builders to Ban ALL Sales to Blacks – Real Estate Decoded
• What Is Fair Housing? There are laws to protect people from discrimination in buying, renting and living in their homes. – New York Times
• Don’t Give Up, Buyers: Real Estate Today Is Still a Seller’s Market, but Moving Toward Balance – Realtor.com
• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in April, Multi-family Increased Slightly. CoreLogic: “U.S. delinquency rate increased from a year earlier in March, driven by an uptick in early-stage delinquencies” – Calculated Risk 
• Residential Construction AD&C Lending Declines – NAHB
• Four Years After Covid: Downtown Recovery Remains Weak – Apollo
• Secret #20 – From 1940 to 1970 the Black Home Ownership Rate Increased More in the South than the North – Real Estate Decoded
• The Housing Policy Implications of Taylor Swift – Reason
• Essay on “How Constitutional Litigation Can Help End Exclusionary Zoning” – Reason
• How the Housing Market is Changing in Cities Gaining the Most New Neighbors – Zillow
• Rebuilding the Construction Trades Workforce – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• New York’s housing crunch collides with development skeptics. Neighborhoods that have maintained a suburban feel are fighting Adams’ plan to grow the city’s housing supply. – Politico

On China:

• China’s Biggest Cities See Housing Market Pick Up After Easing. Shanghai, Shenzhen buyers show interest in new and used homes. Analysts, investors are optimistic worst of slump may be over – Bloomberg
• All the Tools the PBOC Has to Support China’s Property Sector. Focus of latest relending program is excess housing inventory. Central bank programs can be expanded if needed: analysts – Bloomberg
• China needs to inject US$276 billion into property market to stabilise prices: Goldman Sachs. The funding need is based on the 20 trillion yuan inventory the US investment bank estimates exists in the 80 mainland Chinese cities it tracks. ‘So far, the scale of policy support is not sufficient to move the needle’, the bank says – South China Morning Post
• Guess Who’s Angry at China’s Real Estate Bailout: Homeowners. China has relaxed or eliminated measures on home buying to spur new purchases. This has made a vocal constituency of existing homeowners very unhappy. – New York Times

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Australia’s Home Price Gains Quicken With Sydney at Record High – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Australia home prices continue to climb, Sydney back at record high – Reuters
• [Australia] Australian Home Loans Jump as Rental Yields Lure Investors. Home loans to investors climbed 36.1% in April from a year ago. Gross rental yield highest since Aug 2019, CoreLogic data show – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Could a housing revolution transform Canadian cities? – BBC 
• [India] India’s home prices to rise steadily, affordable housing supply to lag demand: Reuters poll – Reuters
• [Netherlands] The Netherland’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Portugal] Portugal to use golden visa scheme to help migrants, build affordable homes – Reuters
• [Singapore] Singapore’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Ukraine] Development of mortgages in Ukraine – VoxEU
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices return to growth as market ‘shows signs of resilience’. Rate more than doubles to 1.3% in May and average property price rises to £264,249, Nationwide says – The Guardian